Orton's Arm
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If the Bills lose this week to the Dolphins, is it too soon to start talking about inserting Alex van Pelt into the starting lineup?
Van Pelt has 11 career starts. He's still essentially a rookie.
Van Pelt last got meaningful time as a starter back in 2001. He was plagued by accuracy issues. But he's had eight years on the bench since then. Eight years to develop. Eight years to become a far more accurate passer than he'd been in college or in the early years of his NFL career. How many more games do the Bills need to lose before it's time to put van Pelt back out there?
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Great thread! Anyone who hasn't yet taken the time to look at the numbers Bangarang posted should do so. It won't take long.
If the level of player talent had declined, the decline in offensive production could be blamed on that. Bearing that in mind, let's look at the talent each coach was given:
Quarterback:
Orton is better than Fitzpatrick. But Fitzpatrick is better than Manuel, Lewis, or Tuel. Marrone and Hackett get a mulligan for their first year, but much less so for year two.
RB:
Very similar. Fred Jackson is older than he was with Gailey, but still plays well when healthy. Bryce Brown and Boobie Dixon help offset Jackson's aging.
Offensive line:
The offensive linemen we have now are fairly similar to those we had with Gailey.
TE:
See offensive line.
WRs:
Under Gailey, the Bills' #1 WR was Stevie Johnson, with no clear-cut #2. Johnson was traded away for a 4th round pick, IIRC. Now, we have Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods, and plenty of good specialist type WRs. Hogan for underneath stuff, Goodwin as a deep burner, etc. There is no comparison between this year's WR corps and any that Gailey had.
Overall:
When you hire an uncreative, unimaginative head coach and offensive coordinator, you should expect uninspiring results. That's precisely what the Bills have received from Marrone and Hackett. A guy like Chip Kelly would be having a field day with talent like this!
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Simply not true. In every stat I can find, he is marginally better. QBR, completion percentage, redzone efficiency. Etc. KO is a few percentage points above EJ. That's 2-3 plays a game. Let's not pretend Orton is Johnny Unitas. He isn't. But you Orton nuthuggers won't admit it. Orton is not "the long term answer" at QB. Orton is mediocre. And Orton blew it badly on Sunday. He is the reason the Bills did not win the game. He's 3-2 as the starter (and would be 2-3 if Detroit would have had a decent kicker). My frustration is how so many people on this board cruicify EJ for exactly this type of game but find every possible excuse for the 10yr veteran.
> In every stat I can find, he is marginally better.
I can help solve that problem.
> completion percentage
The problem with completion percentage is that it can easily be inflated by dumping the ball off short. Trent Edwards has a career completion percentage of over 60%.
> KO is a few percentage points above EJ.
Orton is much better than Manuel, at least as measured by air yards per attempt.
Over 80% of Manuel's passes have been to targets less than 10 yards away. Not 10 yards away from the line of scrimmage. 10 yards away from EJ personally. And it's not like he was throwing to guys running horizontal crossing routes or anything. The overwhelming majority of those passes were to stationary targets. If you get a random group of guys together and start throwing the football around, and if the guys are reasonably decent at throwing, it will soon be discovered that throwing 10 yard passes to stationary targets is boring. Too easy. But that's the only thing Manuel has been doing, except for a few throws here and there. Those few throws here and there are inaccurate far more often than not.
Orton attempts a far higher percentage of difficult throws than Manuel attempts. Orton isn't accurate 100% of the time. But his accuracy is worlds ahead of Manuel's.
For the 2014 season, Manuel's air yards per attempt was 2.13. That was the worst average of any starting quarterback. The second-worst was Geno Smith, at 2.63. Even after his uninspiring showing against the Chiefs and their #1 pass defense, Orton's air yards per attempt is still 3.63--much better than Manuel's 2.13.
Why do many of Manuel's other stats look somewhat comparable to Orton's? Most statistical measures of a quarterback's performance lump air yards together with yards after the catch (YAC). This benefits Manuel the most. Two thirds of Manuel's total passing yardage came from YAC. That's a higher percentage than any other starting quarterback in 2014. It's not like Manuel was doing a spectacular job of hitting guys in perfect stride; setting them up for excellent YAC. No. He was making easy, boring throws to stationary targets less than 10 yards away, then watching as guys like Watkins or Fred Jackson generated YAC on their own.
As a pure passer, EJ Manuel was the least productive starting quarterback in the NFL. And it wasn't even close. He had some positive attributes which helped offset that. He didn't turn the ball over a lot or take many sacks. That's one of the benefits to almost always going with your dump-off option. Nevertheless, Manuel has a long way to go before he can be considered a credible backup quarterback. He has not attained, and probably never will attain, the level of Trent Edwards or JP Losman--neither of whom are on NFL rosters.
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None of those things have anything to do with why you wanted Marrone fired.
Regardless of why he wants Marrone fired, he's right. The Bills' offense is unimaginative. Players aren't being put in the best position to succeed. The Bills aren't adapting to opponents' strengths and weaknesses. Take the last two games for example. Against the Jets, the Bills were averaging seven times as many yards per pass play as they did on running plays. Hackett therefore dialed up twice as many running plays as pass plays!
On the other hand, the Chiefs have the league's best pass defense, but a suspect running defense. The Bills' running game was working against the Chiefs. Hackett called up twice as many pass plays as running plays. Hackett's tendency to gravitate toward the stuff that doesn't work is inexplicable. Given that Marrone comes from an offensive background himself, the weakness of the offensive coaching is on him.
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Once we are out of the playoff hunt, I'm totally on board with EJ getting starting reps.
How would you explain that to the players? These guys make enormous physical sacrifices. They play through pain. Watkins' playing through broken ribs is a good example of that. They're told the reason for all this sacrifice is because winning matters above all else.
Suppose that a few weeks from now, Marrone walks into the locker room and announces that Manuel is now the starter. The receivers will know--at least intuitively--that Manuel is much less likely to throw them the ball downfield. They'll realize that except on very rare occasions, they'll be getting the ball on dump-offs only. Or, if the ball is thrown downfield, there's an excellent chance it will be a widow maker type pass. This implies that the coaches would be requiring an even greater level of sacrifice from our WRs, while at the same time deliberately reducing the team's chance of winning. The effect this would have on morale would be less than stellar, especially among the Bills' WR corps.
Maybe you care about morale in the locker room, and maybe you don't. But a number of excellent Bills' players are nearing the ends of their contracts. Players like Hughes. The more head-scratching moves the front office or coaching staff make, the harder it becomes to retain players like that.
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EJ is almost as good as Orton right now. After playing only a handful of games. EJ's the kind of guy that the more reps he gets, the better he gets. Now look at the rest of our schedule and ask yourself which games Orton would win and which games EJ would win. If you come up with a big difference in the amout of games youre kidding yourself. its the same amount of games. Orton gave us a mini 3 game thrill there so i understand how some win starved Bills fans would hop on board with his bandwagon, but at the end of the year the wins loss difference will be negligable.
Orton is toast. Develop the kid.
Unless he won the next game, then it wouldve been a tremendous bonding experience for a young squad learning to win together
The EJ sucks crowd really just projects its lack of vision
> EJ is almost as good as Orton right now.
This is not true. In 2014, Manuel averaged 2.13 air yards per attempt. Orton's average for the year is 4.51--over double Manuel's. During his four starts, Manuel threw a lot of short, very easy passes. Some of which resulted in great yards after the catch (YAC). In 2014, 2/3 of Manuel's total passing yardage came from YAC; with the other third from air yards. Conversely, over 60% of Orton's total passing yardage has been from air yards. With Orton, the Bills have a real QB. Not a top-10 QB, perhaps, but still a credible starter. "Credible starter" is not a phrase I'd use to describe E.J. Manuel, either now or in the future.
> After playing only a handful of games. EJ's the kind of guy that the more reps he gets, the better he gets.
If that's the case, why was he no better in the first four games of this season than he was last season?
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IMO this goes back to coaching, and how they utilize their players. The coaches couldn't seem to get the most of of Spiller either. With Jim Kelly in his later years the coaches tried to limit his passes so he wouldn't wear down towards the end of the season, same with any older QB.
The bigger questions might be...when the O line is doing well, and the run game is working so well to the tune of averaging 5.0 yards per carry why run only 22 times, and pass 48 times? Then why throw 48 times against the #1 pass defense in the NFL?
> The bigger questions might be...when the O line is doing well, and the run game is working so well to
> the tune of averaging 5.0 yards per carry why run only 22 times, and pass 48 times?
An excellent question.
Against the Jets, the Bills' offense averaged 2.0 yards per carry, and 14 yards per pass attempt. Hackett, being the genius that he is, chose to run it two plays for every one passing play.
This time around he went up against a team with a great pass defense but a lousy run defense. The Bills' best WR was playing hurt. So why not call two pass plays for every running play?
On another matter, it's possible that Watkins' injury interfered with the timing between himself and Orton. Both because of running differently due to the injury itself, and because of the missed practices.
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And the Bills would never go anywhere with either one, Flutie gets you 10 wins a season, Orton gets you eight.
The book is written on Orton, its still yet to be written on EJ. Id rather take my chances with the unknown than the known, but i guess for alot of you guys 8-8, would be a victory
> The book is written on Orton, its still yet to be written on EJ.
The first few chapters of EJ's book have been written. He lacks throwing accuracy (a poor man's Fitzpatrick), almost always looks for the check-down (Trent Edwards), can't process information quickly (Losman), and lacks pocket awareness (a hint of Rob Johnson). You could say, give him time to develop, maybe he'll improve. Except that he didn't display strength in any of those areas back in college. The idea that he'll drastically improve is based on a triumph of hope over disciplined thinking.
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Are you suggesting that Orton started out accurate, but became progressively less accurate as the game progressed and his arm tired?
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When you put it that way, it makes sense, but will our record at the end of the season be that much different? I dont think it will whether we start KO or EJ. So thats my point. Start the kid and end up 7-9 or start Orton and be 8-8?
If EJ isn't throwing the ball accurately in practice--and by all accounts he hasn't been, at last as of a few weeks ago--what do you hope to discover by playing him in games? It's not as though he's going to start lighting things up when it matters if he can't get it done in practice.
On the other hand, maybe you'd like to see him out there in hopes of accelerating his development. My counterexample to that is Carson Palmer. When Palmer was a rookie, Marvin Lewis decided to make him the third string quarterback. Jon Kitna--a reasonably good veteran QB--was the starter. At the beginning of his rookie year, Palmer made lots of inaccurate throws in practice. As the year progressed, he became steadily better. By the end of his rookie year, he was starting to show serious signs of being better than Kitna.
EJ Manuel has been given every opportunity Palmer had as a rookie. In addition, he's also been given the opportunities that come with being the starter for training camp and the offseason--for two years running. The Bills gain nothing by showering him with yet more snaps not earned by his college play or NFL play.
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No, i know, its let go. Itll be fun to watch Orton flatfoot us to 8-8 for the next season and a half, while a guy with unknown known potential sits on the bench thinkin about which team he wants to play for next.
Fixed. There is nothing more the Bills need to learn about EJ Manuel.
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Just stop with the air yards per attempt stat like it's something that Orton and his agent are gonna cite when they negotiate a contract. It's laughable.
GO BILLS!!!
I don't know (or care) what Orton or his agent will cite. I do care about the quality of his performance. Air yards per attempt is one way of measuring that. Given the quality of the Bills' receiving corps, it's easy for yards per attempt to get inflated with a lot of YAC yards. Last I checked, Orton's yards per attempt for the season is hovering around 8.0. That's higher than the career average of either Manning or Brady. I don't think that anyone is arguing that Orton is playing above the level you'd usually expect from Manning or Brady. But yards per attempt makes it look that way, because guys like Watkins are very good at generating yards after the catch.
Thus far this season, Orton has the 10th best air yards per attempt stat. That means that the strong performance indicated by his yards per attempt stat isn't just a mirage, created by his receivers' excellent ability to generate YAC. It means the guy has legitimately been producing yards through the air.
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Orton plays with hunger. So did Fitz until we gave him lifetime security w/that $60M. deal. Orton can wait for a better deal.
Look what happened in S.D. w/Donald Butler. $28M. in guaranteed $$$$$$$$$$........Can't get it done anymore. He's basically saying 'Cut me. PLEASE!'
A life of leisure, instead of a life in PAIN. Imagine.
Fitz was never particularly accurate when throwing the ball. When Fitz appeared to be playing "well," it was because Gailey had devised an offense to mask his lack of accuracy. Gailey's offense relied on Fitz to make very good reads both pre- and post-snap--something at which Fitz was good. The throws themselves were generally fairly easy.
The Bengals were the first team to catch up with Gailey's offense. (That happened before Fitz signed his monster extension.) They demonstrated the correct way to beat Fitz. The Bills must have seen that game as an exception to the norm. (Or else they wouldn't have given him that big contract extension.)
After Fitz signed that big extension, other teams followed the Bengals' example. That was no different than when teams learned that the correct way to defend Losman is to double cover Lee Evans, and put eight in the box to take away the run. Or when they learned the solution to Drew Bledsoe was pressure up the middle. The fact teams figured out a solution to Fitz doesn't mean he stopped trying hard. It means that Fitz was never going to be a great quarterback, no matter how hard he tried. He just didn't have the ability to play well after defenses figured him out.
In contrast to the above, I don't see anything particularly brilliant or gimmicky that Hackett is doing to make Orton look better than he really is. Orton is reading the field well, making good decisions, and throwing the ball accurately. Granted, he's not elite in any of those areas. But he's a significant upgrade over what we're used to, and is a better quarterback than Fitz.
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Bottom line on Orton...
Offense sucked weeks 2-7 with both Orton and EJ. One game of 4 TD's when our defense got us 6 turnovers does not erase his previous outings where the offense was inconsistent and Orton was inconsistent. He was 2 plays away from starting off 0-3.
Orton is the right guy to start for us now, but he has not played nearly at the level of his mythology on this board suggests. He is already signed for 2 years and his performance is about on par with what he is making. The Bills would be stupid to throw more money at him now, or even after the season. Plenty of QB's have one season where they look the part and flop the next...see Foles and McCown this year from last year as recent examples. Ortons body of work is mediocre at best, making him a great backup but a below average starter.
I am not slamming the guy, just being realistic about what is going on with this offense on the field. Even with 4TDs, we had NINE 3 and outs. We almost let the Jets back in the game because the offense couldn't move the ball, but luckily our D wound up getting 3 more turnovers to stop that.
Its not all Orton, the OL has not been good and the run game is non existent. But at the end of the day, this offense isn't playing at a high enough level to even begin to talk about long term deals.
I will say the same thing I said when we were 4-0 with Trent...if this QB and offense keep playing this way, we will NOT make the playoffs. This offense needs to improve still. And I hope it does...would love nothing more than to have our QB position settled, but its WAY too early to even think about this guy as a long term answer. As we sit right now, EJ needs to figure this game out by next year or we need to draft a QB early in the draft next year. If Orton can up his game and lead us to the playoffs, then he is the guy for the foreseeable future (and rightfully so) and OL is the first pick we make next year. Until Orton proves it on the field and gets us to the playoffs we will still need to find a QB of the future.
> his performance is about on par with what he is making.
I disagree. This season, Orton is producing the NFL's 10th-best air yards per attempt. His pay is not consistent with a performance like that.
> Ortons body of work is mediocre at best
Over the last five years, there was only one time when Orton averaged less than 7 yards per attempt. (The Denver half of his 2011 season.) Fitz's usual average with the Bills was 6.8 yards per attempt. Trent Edwards' career average is 6.5 yards per attempt; Tom Brady's is 7.5.
> Even with 4TDs, we had NINE 3 and outs.
Hackett deserves most of the blame for that. He called run, run, pass about 2/3 of the time he had an opportunity to do so. On a day when the running game was averaging 2 yards a carry--and the passing attack was averaging 14 yards per attempt--run, run, pass is the sort of play calling you'd expect from someone perfectly content to go three and out.
> Until Orton proves it on the field and gets us to the playoffs we will still need to find a QB of the future.
There is nothing which would even remotely suggest Whaley is good at evaluating QB talent. For better or worse, Kyle Orton is almost certainly the very best quarterback Whaley will acquire for a very long time. The Bills' two choices are to either build around Orton, or replace Whaley with a GM capable of choosing better quarterbacks than Kolb or Manuel.
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If you actually look at the full range of stats Glennon has slightly outperformed EJ in their NFL careers to date, but it is a very marginal difference, neither has shown enough thus far to suggest that they are the answer for their QB needy franchises. But that doesn't change my argument that if I was looking at a guy in that 2013 draft and thinking "none of these guys look to me like sure fire hits" I would have been looking for the guy who I think had the most potential to become something special and that for me was EJ Manuel. Now you might not like that because it focuses somewhat on measurables and on the personality, but all the guys had issues with accuracy. They all had issues with footwork. They all had issues with reading defenses. So that was what I'd have made my decision based upon. I also believe it very likely that he would not have been there at #8 in the second round.
It was, without question, a punt. Some of us said at the time - even those that liked the pick - this is a punt. But we had backed ourselves into a corner with our previous strategy. Some of you think they should have waited and taken a QB in 2014 and ridden out kolb and TJax, even if they had there wasn't a massively better crop hanging around in 2014. Certainly if you look at the numbers for Bridgewater and Bortles so far that bears that out. Derek Carr is the one who is probably outperforming his draft position so far.
It is the "look at all these clever franchises taking Bridgewater, Glennon, Garoppolo, [insert flavour of the week]" posts that continue to annoy me when so far there is nothing to suggest that any of them were cleverer than this Bills. Some of these same people were saying how obvious it was to their eye test that Geno Smith was better until 3 or 4 weeks ago. We have just had in my view 2 drafts from which not many, if any, true franchise calibre QBs will appear. Buffalo missed the boat in the couple of drafts before that which heralded a number of decent options.
> If you actually look at the full range of stats Glennon has slightly outperformed EJ in their NFL careers to date
This season, well over 80% of Manuel's passes have been to targets less than 10 yards away. I'm not talking 10 yards away from the line of scrimmage. I'm talking 10 yards away from himself personally. Nor is it like these were passes on crossing routes, to targets moving horizontally. No. These were passes to stationary targets. If we're talking passes to stationary targets, less than ten yards away, we're talking passes I could have thrown. Easy passes, at least for me. (And for plenty of others here on this board.) Boring passes.
Sometimes, guys like Sammy Watkins or Fred Jackson would generate really great yards after the catch (YAC) yards after receiving a dump-off pass from Manuel. Most statistical measures of a quarterback's performance lump air yards together with YAC yards. Measures like that are a great benefit to Manuel, because 67% of his total passing yards came from YAC yards. That's the highest percentage of any starting QB in 2014. In contrast, only 32% of Glennon's total passing yards came from YAC yards. When air yards and YAC yards are lumped together, Glennon and Manuel look fairly similar. But when the two quarterbacks are given credit for their air yards only, Glennon absolutely destroys Manuel. QBR is another stat which draws a distinction between air yards and YAC yards. Glennon's QBR for the season is 55.9, Manuel's is 19.8. Manuel has a long, long way to go before he even approaches Glennon's performance as a quarterback. Manuel is currently well below what we saw from Losman or Edwards. Neither of whom could hold onto roster spots as backups.
> Now you might not like that because it focuses somewhat on measurables and on the personality, but all the guys had issues with accuracy
The best way to do an exercise like this is to start with the guys who became something special. Of the QBs active in the NFL today, which ones have had the best careers? I'd list Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, and Ben Roethlisberger. For the most part, those guys don't have exceptional physical tools, except for Roethlisberger's sheer size and strength. They became special because of their exceptional accuracy and ability to process information quickly. I've read that Drew Bledsoe needed over three seconds to see what Tom Brady could see in less than two. That difference in information processing ability is perhaps the single most important reason why Brady is one of the best quarterbacks ever, and Bledsoe is not.
Generally speaking, special quarterbacks are accurate and able to process information quickly. If you don't see special accuracy or information processing ability in any QB from the 2013 draft class, there's no reason to believe that any of them could become something special. In which case, the correct solution is to not draft anyone from that weak QB class, and wait until next year.
> But we had backed ourselves into a corner with our previous strategy.
True. But burning a first round pick on a standard-issue first round bust type QB isn't the right answer. (Any more than sinking $20,000 into a Ponzi scheme is the right way to make up for previous financial mistakes.) As Manuel's supporters keep telling us, the original plan had been for the project (read: bust) QB to sit and learn for at least a year, with Kolb as the starter. If starting Kolb was their planned short-term solution, they didn't need Manuel for that.
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And Sanchez was awful before. Chip Kelly is a beast. I completely underrated him.
> Chip Kelly is a beast.
You speak the truth. I really wanted him as the Bills' head coach, and was very disappointed when we chose Marrone instead.
If Foles can't succeed with Kelly as his coach, he's very unlikely to succeed under Hackett's tutelage.
However, Manuel's supporters should not take heart from that. Manuel cannot throw the ball accurately or read the field well. As brilliant a coach as Kelly is, he isn't an alchemist. He's not going to take a quarterback with weaknesses like those and make him look like Joe Montana.
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The fans in Dallas probably feel the same way about Kyle Orton as we do about Byrd. Orton was on their team, then he wasn't, and another team scarfed him up and paid him big bucks but no compensation to the losing franchise. Orton worked the system as a good progressive would approve of, for once showing how labor can beat management in contract negotiations, then signing on where he wanted to work. Byrd worked the system by faking his plantar fascitus or whatever the invisible, undetectable, convenient injury is called. He didn't get injured during the games he stabbed his teammates in the back while not playing, and when he did play enough games for the season to count toward his benefits, he still made it clear to management that no offer was going to be good enough. Or Parker did. The threat of another plantar flareup was enough to keep the Bills from tagging him. Anyway, I would trade Byrd for Orton in a heartbeat, so as things balance out, we came out ahead.
> his plantar fascitus or whatever the invisible, undetectable, convenient injury is called
Personally, I think it was a case of bumblefoot. From Wikipedia:
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Bumblefoot (ulcerative pododermatitis) is a bacterial infection and inflammatory reaction on the feet of birds and rodents.
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> The threat of another plantar flareup was enough to keep the Bills from tagging him.
The Bills should have tagged him, and then immediately traded him to the Saints, or to whichever other team was most willing to part with draft picks. Any draft pick would have been better than no draft pick.
Of course, he could have refused to sign the offer, in which case he would have sat out the year. The Bills would have been no worse off in that scenario than they would have been had they let him fly the coop.
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EJ was 2-2 as a starter. He looks like a rookie project who needs experience. He's not ready to play on a team that is good enough to reach the playoffs. That is not a surprise to anyone who watches football seriously.
Glennon is terrible IMO. If you think he makes a better pro, everyone is right to their opinion. Glennon stinks. He can throw a great looking ball once in awhile, that's it.
This is the one I use the most, and I think is the best overall.
http://www.cbssports...archive/1760229
http://www.cbssports...30280/ej-manuel
Manuel was a 1-2. Garoppolo 2. EJ was 40 overall. JG 47.
Granted, two different years will get a little different results but this was how I saw it in general.
> If you think [Glennon] makes a better pro, everyone is right to their opinion.
What aspects of Manuel's game do you like more than Glennon's? Do you think Manuel is more accurate than Glennon? Better at reading the field?
If you think Manuel is more accurate than Glennon, or better at reading defenses, or whatever, then what is your explanation for the fact that Manuel's production (as measured by air yards per attempt) is less than half that of Glennon's? Do you think that Tampa Bay's receiving corps is better than Watkins/Woods/Williams?
> Glennon stinks. He can throw a great looking ball once in awhile, that's it.
Even assuming that's true, how does that make him worse than EJ?
> Manuel was a 1-2. Garoppolo 2.
What's important isn't just the ranking. It's the text description of the quarterbacks. Garappolo's description praised his throwing accuracy, as well as his "excellent passing vision with quick eyes." Accuracy and information processing ability are the two most important traits to look for when evaluating a QB. Garoppolo displayed both in college, Manuel displayed neither. Garoppolo was by far the better prospect. Which is why he was drafted by a well-run organization; whereas Manuel was taken by a poorly run team with little ability to evaluate quarterback talent.
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Who has them ranked? Todd McShay?
The Bills needed a QB to groom in the worst way. The fact the Bills didnt take EJ at 8 is proof positive as I said they didn't consider him a sure fire franchise guy. There was not one available. If they waited until 8 in the second round he would have been gone. It was a great frigging trade and use of the 8th pick. They got their pick of a QB for the possible future, there is no one who looks like they will be better even if he doesn't pan out, and we got a star linebacker.To look at it in retrospect, and say we should have taken a better player than EJ AND have taken Kiko, when no one before the draft ever wanted them to take Kiko, and barely ever heard of him, is a ridiculous position to take. I'm sorry. And I like a lot of your stances a lot, one of my favorite posters here.
EJ would have been taken ahead of Garropolo in either draft.
> If they waited until 8 in the second round he would have been gone.
Fine with me. Let some other team squander an early pick on a standard-issue quarterback bust.
> there is no one who looks like they will be better even if he doesn't pan out
This season, Manuel averaged 2.13 air yards per attempt. Glennon is averaging is more than double that, at 4.77. There's no reason to describe Manuel as being at least as good as Glennon, when he isn't coming remotely close to matching Glennon's production.
> It was a great frigging trade and use of the 8th pick.
Kiko is a superb football player. Is he 8th overall good? Possibly. But it's way too early to tell.
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I have seen a lot of this lately. That people are saying two simultaneous things, but they contradict each other. You either take a results stance, or a theory stance. I don't think you can take one for one occurrence that fits your narrative and then the opposite for a different occurrence that fits your narrative.
If you say EJ was clearly a bad pick because it was too high and he's SHOWN that he is not going to be good, then you HAVE to accept the trade and the retrospect look at Kiko, too, because that was the occurrence. That was the #8 pick. That's a fact. EJ and Kiko for the #8 pick.
If you want to look at it theoretically, that you do not reach for a QB at the position in the first round if you don't have one but no one is worthy, that is a very fair criticism, but you still, IMO, have to include a high #2 pick that he got (and then disregard the fact that it turn into gold).
He didn't just sit there and take a QB at #1 when there wasn't a good one available. That didn't happen, so IMO you cannot fault him for it.
> That was the #8 pick. That's a fact. EJ and Kiko for the #8 pick.
You and I see this differently. I see EJ Manuel as the 16th overall pick, and Kiko Alonzo as the 46th overall pick. The fact that it made a ton of sense to take Kiko 46th overall has nothing at all to do with whether Manuel was deserving of that 16th overall pick.
The other way to look at it is that Alonzo was so good as to himself justify the 8th overall pick. And that, because of Kiko's success, anything at all Manuel might do with his career should be regarded as a bonus.
The thing is, I don't want a general manager who thinks that way. I don't want him to say to himself, "I'm really confident in the linebacker I'm eyeing. So confident that I can afford to throw away my first round pick on a quarterback with great physical tools and little else."
I'm assuming that Whaley/Nix didn't embrace the above-described thought process. I'm assuming that they did their very best to evaluate Manuel, and concluded he was worth a first round draft pick. If that's the best evaluation they could provide, then that to me strongly suggests they cannot be trusted to evaluate quarterback talent. Manuel fit the profile of a standard-issue first round bust. Great physical tools, but did nothing to suggest he was particularly accurate or good at quickly processing information on a college football field. To make matters worse, Whaley is still "high on EJ." It's not like he's learned from his past mistake, and can be trusted to do a better job in the future. The fact he is continuing to delude himself about Manuel may impact whether the Bills hold onto Orton.
Pegula needs to decide whether Whaley is the right GM for the Bills. Everything I've seen thus far indicates Whaley is not the right man to pick the Bills' quarterback. Nor offensive linemen, for that matter. However, there are other positions he does seem good at evaluating, such as linebacker and wide receiver. I give him credit for that, but it's not enough.
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I don't think even Orton's Arm was saying "pay the man now" to be fair C.Biscuit. We need to see how this play out... but if Orton's performance stays as it has been so far I think you pay him starter money and intend on him starting at least through 2016.
I agree that it makes the most sense to wait until after the season before addressing his contract. Assuming his next eight games for the Bills are like his first four, it would then make sense to address his contract. And to address it very seriously. The Bills should enter those contract negotiations fully prepared to give him the kind of contract a top-15 quarterback would expect. A four to six year deal.
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Was lucky enough to watch the early games in LA with Doug Whaley this morning where we watch the games every Sunday. It was great. Thanks to AKC and Matt for setting it up. He didn't really say all that much that was controversial. We got to spend a few hours with him though. Had some wings and some drinks at 10 am. Was there with his wife and brother who were terrific, too.
First of all, what a great guy. Just as you would imagine. He just introduced himself to anyone who walked up to him as "Hi, I'm Doug." No pretension whatsoever. Really impressive guy.
He didn't say anything I was really surprised by. The most interesting thing was he said Orton at practice is yelling at the receivers, and told them if they weren't trying and open in practice he wasn't throwing to them in the game. And they all smartened up quick. That was great. Which led him to say that EJ tries to please everyone and is too nice, and any leader in any business has to be a dick sometimes, and EJ isn't at that point yet.
Other tidbits:
Loves Robert Woods, couldn't stop talking about him.
Thinks it will be hard to re-sign Spikes. Really wants to re-sign Hughes but has no idea how it will go. Agreed that if they look at it as paying the front seven instead of four, it can be rationalized.
Loves Aaron Williams and that was the reason they didn't try harder to re-sign Byrd.
Said Mike Williams trade thing really was all his agent but he's not happy he's not playing. He wouldn't bite when I challenged him about Williams, Watkins and Woods are better than Hogan. I couldn't read him on that. But we talked about him getting the four guys Watkins, Williams, Woods and Goodwin who all do different things well and it hasn't worked out that way. He also said that they didn't know they would be able to get Watkins when they got Williams so he went from being thought of as a #1 guy to kind of 2a.
Loves Preston Brown. That's why they won't overpay for Spikes, who will probably want a good contract and to play three downs.
Wants to upgrade TE but like everyone, knows they aren't a lot of good ones.
He does not particularly like New England or any of Massachusetts. Ha. That was pretty funny.
He loves living in Buffalo and said it's a known fact around the league that players hate coming to Buffalo and then hate leaving it.
Definitely building the Bills after the Steeler teams that he grew up with. Then said they couldn't take the next step until they got Big Ben.
He spends four to five days a week on the road scouting, he's visiting five different schools in five days this week. Talk about how college coaches will let him know when a player of theirs is trouble, without ever saying it. Mostly because they have to do the same thing with high school coaches about players they are recruiting.
He doesn't like Jameis Winston as the face of a franchise at all.
Loves Kiko obviously, who he says is healing fast.
Said when they were looking for a coach, him and Buddy and Overdorf and Russ got together and came up with an idea of what kind of guy they wanted, before they started talking about any specific guy. And they started with didn't want a retread, wanted a young guy who could be there 20 years, wanted someone out of the box, wanted a tough guy, and they liked Marrone because he fit every one of their criterion. Which would also explain them wanting Chip Kelly who also fit all of them.
Said the only time he was ever nervous at a game was visiting Oakland because he was scared walking through the parking lot. Ha.
He wanted the Dolphins to lose but understood both sides of the argument.
Great day and just a great guy. Perfect ambassador for the Bills. His brother watches the games with us on Sunday in LA. Nothing earth-shattering, and he was diplomatic as you'd expect when I asked him hard questions but he answered them well. Couldn't have been more impressed with him.
> they liked Marrone because he fit every one of their criterion
From reading your description, Doug Whaley sounds like a good guy. I like the fact he was open and candid, unpretentious, and that he took time out of his busy schedule to visit with the LA Bills Backers. I imagine that if I got to know Doug, I'd come away with a positive opinion of him as a human being.
However, there are two things you've written which reinforced my concerns about his ability to be a good general manager. The first is his endorsement of Marrone. A head coach should be very creative and innovative. Bill Belichick and Bill Walsh were two of the best head coaches ever, in large part because they were smarter and more creative than their peers. What you've written leads me to believe that Whaley didn't mention that he was looking for an exceptional level of intelligence or creativity on the part of his next head coaching hire. Marrone/Hackett certainly didn't display those traits during their time together at Syracuse. Marrone may have fit all the criteria they were looking for, but didn't fit all the criteria for which they should have been looking!
An equally serious concern is the fact Whaley is still high on E.J. Manuel. The two most important factors he should be looking at in a quarterback are throwing accuracy and rapid information processing ability. Manuel displayed neither trait in college. He hasn't displayed those traits in the NFL. Just because a guy has good physical tools and interviews well, doesn't mean you should make him your quarterback of the future!
On a personal level, I'd hate to see a likable guy get fired. But as a Bills fan, I want what's best for the franchise. If he uses the wrong process to pick head coaches, quarterbacks, and (apparently) second round offensive tackles, he's probably not going to outperform the other GMs around the league. The Bills are extremely unlikely to bring home a Lombardi Trophy until Whaley is replaced.
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I know it isn't popular opinion around here, but I really believe this playoff drought would not be going on 14 years had Donohoe not been fired. He wasn't perfect, and a bit of a control freak, I know...but they were a lot closer to being a playoff team when he left than they had been...up til now!
I disagree. Look at his first round picks:
Nate Clements. Result: played well for the Bills, especially in his contract year. Left a year after his rookie contract ended. Didn't set the world on fire after the 49ers overpaid for him.
Mike Williams. Result: Bust.
Drew Bledsoe (trade). Result: had eight spectacular games as a Bill. During his remaining 2.5 years, he failed to match the numbers Trent Edwards would later put up. (Which is really sad.) Was released at the end of his third year.
Willis McGahee. Result: Was a reasonably good RB for the Bills. Was traded away for two third round picks.
Lee Evans (13th overall). Result: a good #2 WR/deep burner, who didn't have what it took to be a #1 guy.
J.P. Losman. Result: Bust.
None of his first round picks turned into solid, long-term answers at their respective positions. The same could also be said about any player he drafted in rounds 2 - 7 not named Aaron Schobel. During his last year as GM, the Bills went 5-11. Not only were we 5-11, but it was an aging team.
Some of its best talent including guys like Troy Vincent, Lawyer Milloy, and London Fletcher. That team had no quarterback, no offensive line, no receivers except Lee Evans, no tight end, not much on the defensive line except Aaron Schobel, and an aging linebacker corps. The secondary consisted of a mix of older players, or guys like Nate Clements who had one foot out the door. -
Hmmm...let me try this one more time...
Looking at the teams that Manning was one and done (which is 8 times in 13 seasons) agaisnt in the playoffs, his record agaisnt them in the regular season is a combined 46-23. So....when he faced these teams in the regular season, he dominated them. In the playoffs, he folded.
I recently read Charles Duhigg's book The Power of Habit. It's very well researched, and recommended reading.
The book mentions Tony Dungy, and his efforts to install new habits in the players he coached. Dungy's philosophy is that defenders typically look at too many information cues, making them slower to react than would otherwise have been the case. He worked to instill new habits. Teaching them to pay attention to a few information signals, and those signals only.
When he was in Indy, the players bought into Dungy's approach during the regular season. But when the postseason came, they felt they had to do something more. Apparently, that "something more" consisted of going back to their old habits. The habits Dungy was trying to eradicate. To Dungy, the problem was a question of trust. They trusted his system enough to use it in the regular season, but not in the postseason.
Then Dungy's son died. That death deepened the bond between players and coach, causing them to trust his system even in the postseason. The Colts went on to win the Super Bowl on the strength of their defense. As you pointed out, Manning didn't play particularly well during that postseason stretch.
Unlike Joe Montana or Kurt Warner, Peyton Manning doesn't play better in the postseason than the regular season. If anything, he's a bit worse. But he's not necessarily as much worse as the Colts' string of one-and-done playoff appearances might suggest.
How many losses until Alex van Pelt plays again?
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted · Edited by Orton's Arm
Tampa Bob:
> You spelled loses wrong
Not according to dictionary.com.
Singular = loss. Plural = losses.
Enlightener:
> thanks for stealing my joke. i know you saw this in the other thread about ej...admit it please.
I didn't read the other thread. No way I could get through three pages of that without ripping out my hair. If you and I thought of the same joke, it's a sign great minds think alike.