finknottle
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Browns released Connor Shaw. Now there's a developmental #3 I would like to see in place of Tuel.
Absolutely. I watched a good amount of SC last year and was hoping he would land here as a UFA. I don't pretend to be a mechanics evaluator and maybe he doesn't project, but he seemed have the genuine leadership qualities you want and the intangibles of a franchise QB. He got it done, playing in the SEC. Unless his film says otherwise, seems like an ideal PS/#3 QB candidate to take a flyer on.
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Agreed. He probably sees it as a good opportunity. Good WRs, good RBs, a good LT, and a starter with a possible injury issue and without a firm grip on the starting job (because of rawness and youth not because the coaches will yank him).
I think there may be one more very important factor missing that makes the Bills an attractive spot.
If EJ struggles badly then Kyle gets a shot, yes. So what happens if we (or rather, the new ownership) decides EJ is simply not the answer and it is time to move on? On any other team, they take that 2-14 record and cash it in for the next would-be franchise quarterback, and probably say "thanks for the 6 games, Kyle, maybe you want to be the backup to our shiny new rookie next year?" But with the Bills now not having a first round pick, the way it plays out is that if he gets a shot and plays well and it's decided EJ is not the future, he gets at least a year as an unchallenged starter.
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There is an idea out there that would-be owners are already so rich that they are so motivated by joining the club that making money falls by the wayside. I think that is misleading.
Set aside the question of whether the personal qualities that make you filthy rich (such as good discipline about business decisions) can be turned on and off.
Think about the relative size of a billion dollars. Even if a would-be owner is worth more than that, a billion dollars is a significant fraction of everything they own. You are asking them to liquidate half or whatever of their financial empire and convert it into a toy. And the great majority of bidders are not billionaires, which is why you generally see ownership groups formed.
Raising an absurd amount of money takes time and maneuvering, even for the extremely rich, and a typical winner may wind up borrowing money one way or another to finance their bid. And that loan charges them interest. So when you say 'who cares, 3.5% sounds good if you are rich already,' you ignore the fact that after they pay their interest they are making diddly or even losing money. So they need a return at least as big as what they are losing to finance the purchase.
As to the point that this is risk-free, and that history shows this is the safest investment there is, things always go up until they stop. Railroads, steel, broadcast television, real estate, many industries had half-century periods of growth by the end of which they appeared money-in-the-bank investments. Horse racing was the dominant sport at its height. I'd guess that the major horse tracks showed similar growth until the 50's or so, appearing then to be slam-dunk investments. Didn't last. The bottom line is that there is risk to the NFL - risk that popularity will wane, risk that the internet age will destroy their broadcast revenues, risk that lawsuits, liabilities, and government regulations will undermine the product. Owning an NFL franchise looks reasonably safe, but it certainly no more risk-free than buying an S&P tracking fund for the long haul.
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I'm not taking his side on the Doom, but can't you people read???
He's not saying Kiko is worth 20 points. He's saying that a promising strategy is being derailed due to a sequence of bad luck on the defense: losing Byrd, losing Pettine, Dareous' stupidity and possible suspension, and now losing our best linebacker. Add up all of those things and you're arguably talking 20 points - that's what he's saying, and that's why the thread is 'Crumbling Foundation' and not 'Yet another Kiko post'.
20 points? I don't know about that many. But I think the basic point is legit.
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This thread is an insult to B. Sanders.
Frankly, it's an insult to Thurman Thomas. Let's see C.J. dominate a game (as opposed to flashes of being the best player in it) before we designate him one of the 5 best Bill's RB's, let alone more talented than Barry Sanders.
Remember, Sanders didn't just have good-looking runs. He took over games. He *was* the Lion's offense, from start to finish, and did it with everybody knowing it and keying on it.
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Absolutely right. Buddy needs to get kicked to the curb on Monday right alongside Chan, Stache and everyone else except the new GM Doug Whaley. Polian is 70.....2 years younger than Buddy. Who gives a crap how old someone is? Can he get the job done? That's all that should matter. Polian should be the new Team President or whatever it is above the GM.
I do, but not for the obvious reason.
This team does nothing but chase yesterdays success, whether it be coaches, players, or schemes. A coach had success 10 years ago? Hire him! A scheme was hot 5 years ago? Adopt it!
You don't get ahead in this league by being a day late. I know it's easier said than done and the success rate is low, but you have to be successfull at identifying and gambling on tomorrows talent, not signing yesterdays.
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They (Nix/Whaley) had had their eye on him for a couple years, actively pursuing him with a quality contract before he went to Seattle. I think they just saw he was available for dirt cheap and went for it. I've never asked what Chan's opinion is on the matter so I don't know if there is a disconnect there.
The question I have at this point, is do the Bill earn a compensatory pick if he leaves as a FA? Did they trade away a 7th rnd pick with the knowledge that they would receive it back the next offseason? If so, it's hard to give them too much grief for acquiring a player they liked at virtually no cost.
Don't know, but I want to comment on the whole TJ thing. I've come around to the side of firing both Nix/Gailey, but I don't hold the inactivity of TJ against them. The fact is, as the poster notes, they followed his career and liked what they saw. Took a flier on him for a low pick. Maybe - just maybe - now that they have him practicing with the team they see that he's worthless, regressed, and it was a waste of a pick. So what? It happens sometimes to the best of GM's. But if that's the case, then they should do exactly what they've been doing, which is forget about it, move on, and cut him in the off-season if he doesn't turn it around in practice. If they've decided he's worse then Thigpen, then starting him just to "see what they've got" will do nothing but waste another game day. At least with Fitz you can work on the offense and have a chance of getting something clicking with the recievers. Playing a guy you've believe simply can't get it done, just to prove it to the fans, would be a bigger mistake than having signed him in the first place.
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Out of 3 full drafts, Spiller is the only pick he really nailed.
When Spiller proves he can be an every down at that level of performance and last a full season, then we can say he nailed it.
There are a lot of backs that look good and seem to have the knack for getting hurt. Not saying Spiller is one of them, but he hasn't been able/had the opportunity to prove otherwise. And it seems to me that you can't say a pick nailed it without addressing durability and longevity.
And ultimately you have to address the worth to the team. Let's assume Spiller can be a durable, every down back going forward. Spiller being underused the first few years of his contract may not be his fault, but the bottom line is that we drafted a top ten guy to a 5-year contract, and we'll get maybe two seasons of starter productivity out of the deal. That's not nailing it in the draft.
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I see that that fellow Drew Brees is 2-0 this season when he has under 30 attempts, and only 3-7 when he passes more than 30 times. I think the lesson is clear - Brees is no franchise quarterback, and the Saints need to limit his liabilities and stop putting the ball up in the air.
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Sometimes the obvious needs to be stated. But on the other hand, the collective wisdom of this board suggests that maybe it is quite easy after all.
First, you trade all your picks to move up and grab a 'franchise quarterback.' You know, the latest Mark Sanchez.
Then you sign everybody described as a 'freak,' 'beast,' 'stud,' 'roadgrader,' or other homoerotic label popular among the descriptively-impaired.
For a game plan, in today's NFL all you need to do is play 'smash-mouth' and 'run the damn ball.'
Sounds convincing to me.
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I keep hearing how the Pats run D is much improved only allowing 82 YPG and being ranked 7th. I say stats lie especially early in the year. Here is why.
The Pats have played a team that can't run the ball in Tennessee and another that can't run or pass in Arizona. Against the Ravens, Ray Rice went for 101 yards on 20 carries for an average of over 5 YPC. Last night against Cleveland Rice was held to 49 yards on 18 carries, or 2.7 YPC. This same Cleveland defense was mauled at home by the Bills OLine allowing our 3rd string RB Choice to go for 91 yards on 20 carries. If Spiller had still been in there it might have been closer to 200...they were getting manhandled.
Point is, the Pats stopped 2 teams that are horrible at running. Chris Johnson's best game for the Titans was his 24 yards on 14 carries last week...pathetic.
My prediction is the Bills OLine manhandles the Pats DLine, and we rack up yards regardless of who is in there. Pats defense is not really much improved, merely the beneficiary of having played the two worst running teams in the NFL 2 of the first 3 weeks. When they faced the Ravens, a decent running team, they got slapped around pretty good. The Bills are not a good running team, they are an elite running team. Good luck Pats.
Not disagreeing withy your analysis, just one point of evidence. I don't think Rice 'held to 49 yards' is an accurate description. He was running ok, and barring interceptions and missed FG's, the Ravens offense looked like it was getting its job done. I think that when it started pouring, the coaches decided to rest Rice most of the second half and put in the rookie Benard Pierce (finished with 48 yards on 6 carries).
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Terrible idea that die-hard fans everywhere love.
It would be another step on the road towards ending the 'regional rivalries' like Buffalo-Miami and Redskins-Cowboys. Fewer games would have any intense national appeal. We'd be stuck watching Jets-Giants, Eagles-Redskins, and 49ers-Raiders every week, or else a couple of currently good teams with no particular rivalry. I think in the long run the national slate would start to lose the more casual fans.
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Haven't watched much of the game tonight ,but loved this part.
"Ray Rice thinks he was held. So does Flacco. On to the next play!"
Not a replay. Not a question on whether the "real" refs were right or not. Nothing. Yet with the "replacement" refs, we have to listen for 10 minutes while the announcer says that a late hit out of bounds isn't illegal if the player didn't mean to hurt anyone...
There were a couple of other examples -- hit to the head called in one case, not in another -- where the announcers are not anywhere near as critical of the calls. We all expected that, but it's still pretty ridiculous.
I agree. There were several questionable calls and non-calls in the coverage. Even assuming the refs got them all right, what was noticible was the fact that the booth never questioned them, or slow-mo'd it for us to take a look.
In particular, when the Browns were flagged for running into the Raven's fair catch, it looked to me like the cover man was pushed from behind into the man (itself a penalty). On such a key penatly, you would have thought they would show the replay once or twice and discuss.
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Just curious, who did you want the Bills to pick when they picked Spiller?
Well now we're onto something.
BTW, did you know Erik Pears gets more pancake blocks per dollar than Eric Wood?
Next question: How many NFL GMs would rather have any or all of the other three players than CJ Spiller… at their current levels of compensation?
hint: The answer is NONE.
On the contrary, I think many if not most franchises have gone in the direction of cheaper expendible running backs, and spending their money elsewhere. And when they do draft them, they expect an immediate impact.
My beef isn't with CJ Spiller, it's with the idea that you use a high draft pick - who is yours for a finite period of time - when you know that part of that time will be unproductive. It means the remaining time has to be exceptional just to average things out to a good return on the pick. For the Bills, this goes beyond Spiller. Willis McGahee should never have been drafted that high, knowing that at least one of his four years was going to be spent injured.
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So, Washington, D.C. Is now Dixie? There's a bunch of history books counter to that thought. I do like the alignment though!
Historically, the Redskin fan-base was southern. Before Carolina entered the picture, Redskin country stretched from just the DC suburbs in the north all the way down to South Carolina, were you began to get some Falcon fans.
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Spiller should be compared to his draft classmates… Ryan Mathews and Jahvid Best. Also Dexter McCluster.
Also I don't agree with your assumptions for his career yardage and the idea of what his "efficiency" right now is also pointless.
Ok, I'll play.
Ryan Matthews signed a 5 year deal at $20 million. He has produced 2,445 yards for his team (1,813 rushing, 632 receiving). $3,681 a yard.
Jahvid Best signed a 5 year deal, $12.7 million. He has produced 1,719 yards (945 rushing, 774 receiving). $3,324 a yard.
Dexter McCluster signed a 4 year deal at $5.15 million. He has produced 1,271 yards (679 rushing, 592 receiving). $2,277 a yard.
Looks like around $3,000 a yard is the going rate in Spiller's class.
Spiller has produced 1,692 yards (1,152 rushing, 540 receiving). That's $6,648 a yard.
As for my guess at his finishing the 5 years with 4,000 yards rushing, 2,000 yards receiving, fine. Let's see your estimate.
By my calculation, for his productivity to the team to come in at $3,000 a yard over his contract, he needs to finish with 8,000 yards. 6,300 yards in the remaining 2 3/4 seasons is quite a pace.
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I like Spiller, think he's turned it around and may be the best RM *at this moment.* But I still do not like the pick.
From a business perspective, we signed him to a 5 year, $25 million dollar deal (let's ignore the escalation, for simplicity). After 5 years, who knows? At best, a new and richer contract, and at worst he's done. RB's have the shortest shelf-life in the NFL. So we need to ask ourselves what kind of productivity we expect from that $25 million dollars, and what is he on track for?
Spiller is almost halfway through his contract (2 and a quarter seasons). He has career 1,152 yards rushing, 540 yards receiving. If the contracted ended now, we'd have paid 11 millions dollars for 1,700 yards - about $6,450 a yard. Remember, money spent on one position is money not available for others.
In contrast, in 2009 the most productive bargins were about $500 a yard:
1. Chris Johnson - $191
2. Ray Rice - $287
3. Jamaal Charles - $343
4. Rashard Mendenhall - $347
5. Matt Forte - $414
6. Fred Jackson - $470
7. Adrian Peterson - $545
8. DeAngelo Williams - $577
9. Pierre Thomas - $580
10. Jerome Harrison - $620
These numbers are a bit apples-to-oranges because they are 2009 dollars, are base salary (I think), and may not include receiving yards... But the point is still made. If I want efficient productivity out of the running back position, it has to be a lot of yards for a reasonable amount of money. Spiller has been a terrible ROI so far. He'll need to catch up with two 2,000 yard seasons over his remaining contract before I'll consider that 5 year roster spot and $25 million well spent.
Assuming he takes over from Jackson sooner rather than later and plays exceptionally, I'm guessing that Spiller finishes his 5 years having contributed 4,000 yards rushing and 2,000 yards receiving. At $25 million, that's over $4,000 a yard. No thanks.
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Good On Vilma - while I think he is probably guilty of participating in the bounty program and pledging money I think its outrageous that Goodell gets to act as judge, jury and executioner -- you need some form of independent arbitration as well as public disclosure of evidence. Since that is not available Vilma should use all the tools available rush the evidence to a public forum with the goal of trying play this season. This is one of those tools.
Let me see if I have this right: you own a company, and you believe an employee is doing something detrimental to your business. You investigate and decide to suspend them, consistent with any labor laws or agreements. Are you saying you can't do this without independent arbitration and public disclosure of the evidence?
Can a business ever take disciplinary action without independent arbitration and public disclosure?
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No you can't. Try it. Name the players in this years draft that will be selected in the first four rounds and lets all see how you do with that. Last year Buddy selected Dareus, Williams, Sheppard, and Hairston in the first four rounds. The first three are going into their second years as starters. The fourth is a potential starter.
Go ahead big talker. Try it. If you do, I'll be watching who the Bills pick and begin a thread comparing the Bills' pick to yours. After the 2012 season, I'll revisit your selections, again compare them to Buddy's, and we'll all see how your picks stack up. Are you up for this Mathews' Bag?
As an aside, I'm sick of the annual debate over franchise quarterbacks, who has them and who doesn't, are they neccessary for superbowl championships, and whether you need to draft them high. Everybody picks their examples to suit their arguments, and it seems like only yesterday people were pointing to Sanchez as the latest up-and-comer... I've been thinking of starting a thread to have our experts go on record as to who is and is not a franchise quarterbacks, and look at the results in three years.
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Will they still keep Joe Biden around for comic relief?
Secretary of State.
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Do you have a link to these exemptions? I would be interested in reading them if you.
Not written, but he has floated several exemptions in extended media interviews.
Another tweak I heard him raise has to do with the idea of economic empowerment zones. These would be hard-hit areas in which something like '9-9-5' would apply.
Also, on a sidenote, when you see that his plan gets savaged over the next couple weeks, you'll see what I mean, even though you still won't agree with me.
I certainly don't disagree with you on the vulnerability to the attacks that are coming. Just on the essence of what makes this approach attractive in the first place.
As for the very poor, I'd rather see the same rules apply, but with direct aid raised through non-tax code programs.
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Not that it affects me personally but the 9% sales tax will push consumers towards the black market. The tax is also regressive...
If by regressive you mean fair or even, then yes.
I've been thinking about this plan a little more and I have added in a few things that would make it a bit more palpable.
Income tax rate= Instead of taxing 9% to everyone, have it broken off to four subsections
3% for low income
7% for middle
10% upper income earners
13% for the wealthy
National Sales tax
Essentials such as food (grocery food, not dining),rentals, medicine etc should be excluded
Gasoline and utilities 4%
Corporate taxes stay at 9%
Something likethis would make his plan less regressive, and would at least have some sort of a progressive tax rate on incomes, which would give it a much better shot of getting bipartisan support. Also the exclusions and deductions in the National Sales tax would be offset with the increases from the upper income and wealthy income taxes.
This distroys the simplicity of the tax code. Once you start sticking in special rates and exceptions (which is already being proposed: 2nd hand products are tax free to help the poor, and buying US materials are deductible to strengthen domestic manufacturing), you wind up on the slope of a complicated tax code where everybody suspects that the guy with the best accountant wins.
Also, it gives up on what should be a seminal question: why should *rates* be progressive? Isn't it enough already that the more you make the more you pay? Shouldn't we be treated equally?
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Ha! See, this is the stuff I need. I need stuff to lampoon a bit -- preferably stuff on the bureaucratic side. I know you got lots, Tom, lemme have 'em!
You will find all the comic material you need in "Backstabbing for Beginners: A Crash Course in International Diplomacy," by Michael Soussan. It chronicle's the disillusionment of an idealistic young graduate who goes to work for the UN's Oil-for-Food program in the late nineties. It's a savage look at the UN's own bureaucracy and hypocrisy.
Random passage, relating to inter-departmental politics:
It eventually occured to me that I was well on my way to ruining all aspects of my life if I didn't find a way to shed the extreme frustration that had possessed me the past few months. I saw two options. I could either leave the UN and let the stupid turf wars continue without me, or stay on and make a difference in the world by destroying Cindy.
Everybody needs a goal!
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Hate to defend the indefensible, but this seems to be a reprise of the $200 toilet seat issue. It's not that the muffin costs $20, but that it's the total cost of doing the event at the Hilton. This type of a markup is common when organizing events in a hotel or a conference center.
Of course, if the true story is that the event was done at DoJ offices and the catering cost was $20 for the muffin, then someone should get slapped.
This is correct. I have it on ultimate authority (my girlfriend, a conference planner for trade associations) that catering contracts with minimum quantities and outrageous rates are the standard hotel terms to get meeting rooms and discounted room blocks. No outside food permitted.
So the real scandal is not whether DOJ is paying too much, but rather whether they are hosting too many conferences in non-USG spaces.
We need to be a passing team now.
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
Another factoid - you can still be a passing team without actually leading the NFL in yardage.
And a passing team, if they force the defense into constant pass defense, wind up with a lot of easy runs.
I'd be curious to see how many of the last ten SB winners finished ranked higher in passing yardage than rushing, versus the other way around.