Domitian
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Posts posted by Domitian
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1 minute ago, Fixxxer said:
Best case scenario: Brees
QB purgatory scenario: Andy Dalton
Disaster scenario: captain checkdown type.
Yup. I'm not QB whisperer, just a fan, but personally I would put his odds of the best case scenario at less than 5%, Qb purgatory at around 25%, and captain checkdown that flames out in another year or two at 70%
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Tua is basically Drew Brees or bust. He does not possess any specific physical skills or strengths that make him in any way dynamic. He will live and die by his ability to read and exploit defenses with highly accurate passing. That's a really risky player to bet the farm on because if he doesn't pass for 70% and learn to surgically pick apart a D, he's damn near worthless. His arm is a noddle, he's not a dynamic run threat...again...Brees or bust.
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9 minutes ago, BITE ME said:
Is it because it is Disney/ESPN owned? Putting aside how terrible they are at picking elections, the preseason predictions for the AFC East are beyond bad. What is even crazier is they had Dallas and the Eagles with better records than the Bills and Washington as the worst team in the NFL.
Patriots 9-7
Bills 8-8
Jets 7-9
Dolphins 6-10
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nfl-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo
The predictions are based on a model that uses historical data. If a team or its players play better (Allen), or worse (Dallas), than their historical levels, that will throw predictions like this off. Obviously it also can't account for major stars getting injured either. It's not a crystal ball, it's just a statistical model.
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23 minutes ago, Penfield45 said:
Can’t believe the NFL gave the titans 3 weeks off and bent over for them but the browns are being forced to play their games
These are extremely different situations that really aren't comparable...yet. Titans had COVID spreading through their lockerroom hitting new players every day. They had to push games to stop the spread within the team AND to others. Browns positive tests thus far (until today) have all ben isolated where the players/coaches contracted it from outside and the virus was not spreading from player to player. Extremely different scenario. Remains to be seen about today's positive tests though. The league hasn't played favorites. Intra-team outbreaks are treated differently than isolated contraction from outside and have been all year.
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On 1/4/2021 at 1:44 PM, billsfan89 said:
The Colts were the best matchup out of the 3 wildcard teams. I don't trust Rivers esp in bad weather, the Colts ground game with Taylor is good but it isn't as lethal as the Ravens or Browns, and the Colts defense is suspect in the passing attack. It would be a major disappointment if this game wasn't a comfortable 2 possession lead late.
I'm in the same boat. I wanted Indy or Miami. Indy is a fine team, but Rivers is...well...Rivers and on defense I'm not sure there is a secondary that can actually stop Diggs-Beasley-Brown-Davis, and if there is, it certainly isn't the Colts secondary. Their pass defense is the closest thing they have to a hole or really exploitable weakness, which is great for the Bills. Buckney plugging up the middle and their great performance against the run isn't worth much against a Bills team that doesn't run very much.
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1 minute ago, HappyDays said:
Watching Chris Simms talk about football is a pleasure. He knows the game as well as anyone and knows the teams he talks about as well as the fans.
He's very good at what he does and better than 90% of the pundits out there because he does his damn homework. He uses the analytics, and he watches the film, and combines it with his own experiences. If he doesn't know something, he won't have a take on it. That being said, he usually knows because again, he does his damn homework.
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28 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:
Nah. I can see why they do it. It's just following along with that lazy "analytics are Everything" bad analytics = sucks and continuing the "parody of a first round draft pick" Aaron Schultz Football Outsiders Sam Momson thing.
Look at the people that have been more realistic about Allen's skill and development and those that have been ZOMG HE'S TRASH!. The dividing line isn't whether they use analytics or not, it's whether they're lazy hacks or not. Most of the talking heads on TV especially have no damn clue what they're talking about. They look at a few numbers, watch youtube highlights, and then come up with a hot take or parrot the conventional wisdom.
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6 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:
So the NFL said there was no evidence of spread within the facility prior to Sunday, which is why game went on.
The question is, are these still separate instances vs. spread within the facility? Or are we now dealing with a Ravens-like outbreak?
Not just was there no evidence the prior positives weren't from team spread, there was objective evidence that it was not. They tested positive for three different strains of the virus. Team spread within the facility would be a uniform strain leaping from person to person. I'm sure the league will do what they did last time and have the test samples genome sequenced to get an idea of what they're dealing with and go from there.
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13 minutes ago, TylerD said:
"Colts fans extremely optimistic"
*Looks at thread to see the first 10 comments of fans saying we will be blown out lmao*
There is very few that are optimistic about us winning... I am not going to go and count the votes, but guarantee if I did 80 percent of the board thinks the Colts will lose. There are a lot that think we can make this a competitive game, but I don't see too many comments saying we will win this.
Every AFC playoff team deserves to be there (unlike the NFC), and anyone can beat anyone. However I really wouldn't like this matchup as a Colts fan. Your D is good...but more specifically your run D, which is elite. The Colts secondary and cover corners really aren't built to be able to cover guys like Diggs, Beasley, and Brown man to man, which they'll need to so at least sometimes to allow pressure on Allen. That elite run D isn't going to be of much use against a team like the Bills who aren't much of a running team. The Colts match up, IMO much better with a team like the Titans or Ravens, where that front 4 can really shine and shut down the run, while the secondary won't be asked to cover such high end talent. The Colts are a solid team across the board, but if there is a weakness, I think it's the pass defense, and you drew the 3rd most prolific passing attack in the league. That being said, anything can happen!
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I, nor any of us here can possibly be responsible for the actions of others in a stadium of 70,000 but I really don't think any Bills fan should engage in debates about past poor fan behavior, violent or otherwise beyond agreeing that things like that shouldn't happen. I have no interested in defending others bad behavior out of some tribal loyalty. If some dude from Syracuse wants to be a Dolphins fan and hate the Bills because someone poured a beer on his friend, he can go right ahead. I'll agree that's not cool but I'm not going to take responsibility for an entire fan base of millions.
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Everyone need to keep in mind that most sports pundits idea of research is looking at box scores and sorting league rankings on ESPN stats to determine who and what is good and who and what isn't. That's how you have the laziest among the talking heads saying that the Colts have a great defense that will cause problems for Allen. They didn't bother looking that A. their D has been on the decline in the second half of the year. B. Their D is ranked #8 because their Running D is amazing. But the Bills aren't a running team. and C. Their Pass defense is in the bottom half of the league and their cover corners are not very good and will not be able to keep up with Diggs/Beasley/Brown playing Man. These are the same jokers that just look at Allen's comp % and watched the end of the Texans game and go with, "he was trash". Most pundits are NOT Chris Simms who actually put in the work to know what they're talking about.
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4 minutes ago, VaMilBill said:
If it was Mahomes or Rodgers that was Covid positive, or even Andy Reid, I gotta think the nfl would bend over backwards to help them be there for the game
They didn't for Lamar earlier this year.
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11 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:
I'm sure they are saying the same about us too.
the one thing we've struggled the most at is stopping the run, so does give me concern. Granted better of late, but not great either.
You could counter that with the Colts being bottom 10 in stopping the pass and the Bills being #2 in the league in passing offense.
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Just now, Big Turk said:
I find it hard to believe that 5 people all got COVID around the same time outside the facility when they are trying to be careful about who they are around. I am not sure what the odds on that would be, but I would suspect pretty low.
You may very well be right. However I'm a tech sales person, not an epidemiologist. I'll let the experts do their contact tracing and determine what's going on with the Browns.
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1 minute ago, Success said:
I get what you're saying. But this is such a unique year; other leagues have taken much more extensive measures to protect against those kinds of scenarios.
The NFL is more complicated, but they do seem to have a "whatever happens, happens" approach. I think they could do more.
I'm all in favor of the league "doing more" if it would benefit player health and safety. But I am less in favor of making major changes and disruptions to everyone to keep star players on the field or for competitive balance and whatnot.
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Just now, DrDawkinstein said:
To this point, If we had won SB25 would there have been as asterisk since Hoestetler started?
I guess so!! It only counts if the other team has all their star players healthy.
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6 minutes ago, Success said:
If we end up making a run and face a team like Green Bay in the SB, and then Rogers gets it and misses the game?
That's asterisk to me. Don't want that, at all.
Hypothetical as well for you. If we end up making a run and face Green Bay in the SB and Rogers misses the game because he broke his leg in the NFC Championship...what then? What if he misses the game due to debilitating migraines? What about the Flu? When did this, "the victory only counts if you play a team with all their stars" come from? Missing games due to injury and illness happens.
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Just now, Big Turk said:
No, they have been clear on this the way they handled it.
They don't care who is out for a team. If contact tracing and testing reveals they have it controlled then the game is played and those players go on the COVID list.
If there is an ACTIVE outbreak where players are testing positive for multiple days and they don't have it controlled then the game gets moved for medical reasons. The last thing they want to do is turn 1 outbreak into 2 or even more if those teams play other teams.
This APPEARS to be a active outbreak, meaning the NFL would have to move the game.
Isn't that basically what I said? Movement for severe outbreak, not just because important players or coaches are out. Whether or not this is a severe active outbreak will be decided by the league and their medical folks. So far the positive teams afflicting the Browns have, according to the league, not been due to internal spread but through contracting COVID outside of the team.
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Just now, Success said:
I would tend to agree, though that will create its own set of issues.
I don't think the NFL can just take a passive "whatever happens, happens" approach to this. If any key player or coach misses a game, it can taint the whole thing - particularly the further we go. And while there are times when the accountability is w/ the individual or team, there is nothing foolproof against COVID - you can wear masks & distance & wash hands, and still get it.
They should try to do a bubble for at least the conference championship & SB weeks.
How could it "taint the whole thing"? Would we say the same if a star player were out due to injury or other illness?
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It's a Colts fan board. They should be optimistic. Isn't that part of being a fan? They've got a top 5 run defense, star rookie RB who is killing it in the 2nd half, and a veteran QB. Now, I don't think any of that will matter because this isn't a good matchup for the Colts, but they're a good team and anyone can beat anyone.
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3 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:
NFL needs to reschedule. This is going to happen to other teams. Better to set a precedent now.
If critical players or coaches are out, reschedule. If it means playing the super bowl in March, so be it.
I disagree. Like injuries, you play with the hand you're dealt. I would make exceptions and consider major reschedules only in cases of a severe outbreak where they really can't field much of a team like the Ravens or Titans earlier this year. Pro Football teams have 20+ coaches. Someone else can step up and will. The league let the Broncos play without a QB and the Saints without a RB. They're not disrupting the playoffs for a Head Coach being out when someone else can step in.
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Unofficial reports on twitter are that one of the players is 2x 2nd Team All Pro LG Joel Bitonio.
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No. Most people weren't watching the Bills, so they didn't see the raw ability he had and all the running he was doing. From a traditional QB standpoint, passing, he was pretty terrible, especially rookie year for a multitude of reasons. Even last year, while much improved and his talent becoming even more obvious, statistically he was on the same level as Sam Darnold, Mitch Trubisky, and Daniel Jones all guys who I think most of us would claim, are terrible. I think we all know he's wasn't terrible, but it to someone outside the Bills bubble, I totally understand why that was the picture painted. Plus, also keep in mind that the sports media especially will ALWAYS resort to sensationalizing and hyperbole. By making Allen's first two seasons seem like he was horrendous, it makes his ascension this year all the more newsworthy and gets the clicks and likes.
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10 hours ago, Doc said:
Doubtful it will drop. In fact, I'll bet it goes up from the $175 projected.
Finding a young, cheap alternative is much easier said than done. And Williams was 2nd team All-Pro at RT in 2017. When he returned in 2019, the Panthers oddly played him everywhere but RT (and C). The Bills signed him and he's proven to be an excellent RT for them, and that's his position.
TL:DR - Current best guess is that it drops to $176,000,000, which would be a decrease of $22,000,000 from this season.
Jordan Palmer on OBL says Allen has no ceiling and is most-gifted QB ever
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
Names of some guys who Palmer has coached 1 on 1 in addition to Allen:
Mahomes
Goff
Burrows
Darnold
Watson