JohnRVA
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Posts posted by JohnRVA
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Bills - 41
Jags - 16
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Bills: 43
Raiders: 17
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I think Kurt was mostly neutral in the analysis. I didn't agree with everything but it was interesting to hear his perspective on the route concepts. For example, I like how he explained the check down options to Cook and the types of routes he could run and how Cook ran it kind of in between which meant Josh couldn't throw it to him. Obviously the Cover 1 guys know our offense and players better but I still learned some things,
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I didn't see this anywhere else in the forums. This is a breakdown by Kurt Warner of the Miami game. It's pretty in depth on what Josh should be looking at first, second, third. Pretty good breakdown IMHO for those of us who are not film experts.
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Bills 38
Rams 17
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Gabe Davis on offense
Milano on defense
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A few ideas here that could all tie together.
You have multiple categories of events to increase engagement. A few Bills players participate at each (judging, coaching, etc.)
The Winner (or top 3) for each category gets prizes like game tickets, Bills gear, meet the players, participate in the grand finale event(s), etc.
1) Food contests (wings, Beef on Weck, chili, BBQ, etc.). Bills players can participate like Mckenzie's BBQ, etc. This could be best dish or who can eat the most in 5 min, etc.
2) Chopped style food contest. Would have to be creative on how to film this and equipment. Maybe make it a tailgate theme with apps, entrees and desserts with whatever equipment people normally bring to a tailgate.
3) Red Zone Flag football contest (could also do as ultimate Frisbee) where 3 participants go against 2 Bills defenders. The QB can run. They participants have 4 plays from the 20 to score. Variation: participants can instead choose to have the Bills players on offense (1 QB and 1 WR). 1 person can rush the QB after 5 Mississippee and the other 2 double cover the WR. Adds some strategy depending on who the players are and the overconfidence of the participants.
4) Some kind of mini scouting combine event. Events could be how hard you can throw a ball, accuracy throwing a ball, 40 yard dash, push up in a min, etc. You have to compete in all the events and submit your completed scorecard. You enter a raffle for completing it and the top scores by age group win a prize.
5) Some kind of silent auction, raffle, etc. that benefits a charity.
6) Trivia game about Bills history. Could be individuals or teams who buzz in.
7) Some type of bingo game with a Bills theme (people love Bingo).
😎 This is more interaction vs. contest related but some player-related displays that you can interact with. For example, a mold of Josh's hand and you can see how much bigger it is than yours. Maybe you have a mold of Dion Dawkins foot and see how much smaller yours is, etc.
Grand Finale Events
Josh is blind-folded. Partipants are placed at random spots by a Bills player (you could do predetermined spots but makes it easier on Josh). Participant yells "I'm open". Josh has to throw to him/her blind-folded. If they catch it, they win a prize.
You could also blind fold the participant (maybe spin them around a few times) and then they take the blind fold off after saying I'm Open (or right before). You could also spin Josh around a few times before he throws.Red Zone 1 - Josh and a defender are standing parallel to each other. A participant runs a route. Josh throws them the ball. Defender takes off when Josh throws it (or has to count to 5 Mississippee, etc.). Participant has to catch the ball and score before the defender catches them. To make it more interesting, I think if they drop the ball, we let them pick it up and run.
Red Zone 2 - Josh is the QB with 2 participant as WR. There is 1 Bills DB. Josh tries to complete a pass to a participant who has to score before the DB catches him/her.
Red Zone 3 - Participant is the QB with 1 Bills WR. 1-2 participants play defense. Can the QB participant complete a pass and the WR score a TD or does the defense (the 1-2 defenders) win? For the number of defenders, you probably have to try this out to see what is realistic. Only 1 might be too easy for the WR to score.
Wiffle ball game with a mix of players and contest or raffle winners, kids, etc. This could be one game or a mini tournament with 3 inning games, or similar. A lot of flexibility on who pitches, hits, etc. Could be offense vs. defense or position groups vs. each other.
Corn Hole tournament - Already mentioned by others and a good option to consider.
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It's a good article but what struck me is that it was basically the same points that Warren Sharp made on the Bill Simmons and Ringer NFL podcasts last year during the season. So although it is a good article, I didn't feel like it was anything new because I had heard that other content. That said, it's been a while since those podcasts and I still enjoyed it.
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Pretty happy that Miami is trading up and wasting draft capital. Obviously, assumes the players will not be that good, but crossing my fingers.
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Here is a link to the video of just the Jordan Palmer segment.
https://www.buffalobills.com/video/jordan-palmer-on-josh-allen-we-re-not-even-close-to-the-ceiling
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Yes, it was the Pat McAfee interview where he talked about mapping his throwing motion and finding out that he was not using his hips. Pretty entertaining interview if anyone has not listened to it yet.
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16 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:
I'd just like to question your premise a little bit: Has our run defense in fact, been horrific?
I would say our rush defense has been "average", but there's a twist.
I'm a simple Hapless Fan. I don't like to get all meta with creating artificial statistics that have a hidden subjective component like PFF and Football Outsiders do.
So let's just do some simple maths.
-average rush yards per game this season 116 (wk 11)
-high 161 (Browns)
-low 82 (Bears)
That's a 2x range. So right there we can see there could be a lot buried in an average "rush yds per game given up" stat. For example, a team that plays poor rush teams like the Bears, and gives up 120 yds to them, could be a worse rush defense than a team that plays a great rush team like the Browns, Titans, Cardinals, or Pats and gives up 120 yds to them. In the first case, they're giving up far more yards than that team's average. In the second, they're actually shutting them down more than that team's average.
With me so far?
So on average to date, the Bills give up 130 rush ypg, which sounds pretty bad, as it's worse than the average rush ypg.
But when we look under the hood, we see this (my data, taken from Pro Football Reference). "Delta" is the difference between that team's average rush ypg, and the rush ypg the Bills defense allowed when we played them. A positive number means we held them to less than their 11 week average. A negative number means we allowed more.
week Tm rush ypg Bills rush yds delta 1 New York Jets 98 52 46 2 Miami Dolphins 95 99 -4 3 Los Angeles Rams 125 167 -42 4 Las Vegas Raiders 126 86 40 5 Tennessee Titans 158 139 19 6 Kansas City Chiefs 111 245 -134 7 New York Jets 98 100 -2 8 New England Patriots 150 188 -38 9 Seattle Seahawks 117 57 60 10 Arizona Cardinals 156 217 -61 12 Los Angeles Chargers 117 76 41
As a person who spent a lot of life analyzing data, the first thing that catches my eye is the KC game. It's so horrific, more than 2x the other values. We would call that an "outlier" and look for reasons to explain it. Without that game, the Bills run D averages....118 ypg given up, or almost exactly the league average for rush yards gained.
Now of course, other teams may very well have a single horrific game that's skewing their averages, so we must consider that. But there are a couple of other interesting things to note: our "horrific" run D, in 5 out of 11 games, has held the opponent to significantly less rush yards than their average (see point above about the same average number of rush yards given up having a very different interpretation depending upon whether the opponents are good or bad running teams). In 4 games, we allowed significantly more rush yards than the average. Hmmmm, wonder how the pass yards given up varied in those games?
I would say that McD and Frazier craft a game plan for each opponent, where they decide what they're most interested in taking away and then Do Just That. And they've succeeded, over the last 3 games, in doing so without Milano. In fact, in two of those 3 games, we kind of had attention-getting numbers. 57 rush yards allowed is half what the SeaSnakes typically achieve.
If I were guessing, I'd guess the Bills will be in no hurry to rush Milano back, certainly not to bolster their run defense. He's still wearing that brace. He missed some tackles when he couldn't raise his arm. I'm thinking they want to work him in, let him build up to game shape, maybe start him in a week or so. We need him more in coverage.
Really good analysis here. I'm not an expert, but I agree that we had a couple bad games against the run but I don't think it's as bad as it looks based on the competition, our injuries at the time, etc. I think we're a lot closer to rank 10-15 vs. the run right now, than bottom 5 like some analysts think.
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1 hour ago, Virgil said:
I'm just going to say it. I've never had a McRib
LOL!
I used to live in Germany and some of my German friends were OBSESSED with the McRib. They circled it the calendar for when it was coming back. I never had it. I dunno...looks kinda gross to me, but to each his/her own.
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Thanks for pulling this together. This passes the eye test IMHO. We had so little talent when they arrived that we might have kept more draft pics than usual and maybe that helps our average?
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Ben Solak (The Ringer) Analysis of Josh's Decisions this Year
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Pretty fair analysis of guys being open and Josh taking the higher risk throw. He gives multiple examples from this year and breaks down the routes.