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Highhopes123

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    We can clinch playoffs this week & Scenarios to win the division (and even get the #1 seed in the AFC)

    in The Stadium Wall Archives

    Posted

    3 hours ago, dayman said:

    Just to make a really clear summary of how unlikely it is we win the division:

     

    1. We are currently a game behind the Pats.

     

    2. Last games for each team: Bills - ravens, steelers, pats, jets; Pats - chiefs, bengals, bills, Phins.

     

    3. As we can see, if we win out we will at least tie them, if we win out and they lose to the Chiefs we win outright, and if we drop the Ravens game but otherwise win out and they lose to the Chiefs we tie again. All scenarios require us to win at NE which we never do, and even then we may still just tie. 

     

    4. So, lets assume we do gain a game on them and tie. Now it's tie breaker time and those go like this:

     

    -head to head (we would be tied)

    -w/l in division games (we would be tied)

    -w/l in common games (we lose b/c we lost to both the eagles and browns...both of whom the Pats beat)

    -strength of schedule (we almost certainly lose unless chaos across the whole league breaks out last month of season)

     

    SO, as we can see, the only realistic way to win is to win the division outright by record which means we almost certainly need to win out and beat the Ravens and hope the Pats also lose another game (most likely the Chiefs)...OR drop the Ravens game and hope the additional game the Pats lose is somehow the final game against the Dolphins giving us the second tie breaker (divisional record) before we get to the third tie breaker (common opponents).

     

    TLDR version: It won't happen unless we either win out completely and the Pats lose another game in addition to our game (most likely the Chiefs); or go 3-1 (not losing to the Pats or Jets) and the Pats lose to the Dolphins. 

     

    PS: Rereading this after posting and wow, it is pretty hard to make a "clear" anything when talking about all of this lol. Hey, I tried. 

    -

    Bad news for ya, patriots wont lose any games at home to anybody they play. The only chance they have to lose is in Cincinnati and thats not gonna happen. I dont care that they lost a game yesterday. They can be as bad as your mind wants them to be but they will win the division. If your smart you will take the pats -3. And ravens -6

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