[McDermott Weds Presser: Sullivan asks whether Allen is an improvement over Tyrod]

 

While stats aren't everything, it's pretty clear that Josh is one of the worst passing QBs in the league right now. Just look at these stats. That's not to say he doesn't have potential, or that he can't fix his issues, but so far this season his production is in line with duds like Trubisky, Mayfield, and Mariota.

[20 Years of QBs and 300 yard Games]

People are throwing around all kinds of different numbers in this thread, and some of them seem to have questionable accuracy and/or small sample sizes.

 

I pulled some data myself to see how the # of passing yards relates to (1) your chance of winning the game, and (2) the # of points you score per game.

 

I wanted to make sure I had a big enough sample size, so I used 2370 games from 2015-2019 (all games excluding ties). All data came from https://www.pro-football-reference.com/. Here's the output data in table format - https://i.postimg.cc/529576Wt/pts-data-2.png. 

 

For games where they had <200 passing yards, teams won 44% of their games & scored an avg. of 17.7 pts per game. For 200-299 passing yards, teams won 52% of their games & scored an avg. of 23.3 pts per game. For 300+ passing yards, teams won 55% of their games & scored an avg. of 29.0 pts per game.

 

To me, it looks like passing yards have a strong relationship with winning, and a very strong relationship with the # of points you score. If you're passing for less than 300 yards in a game, your chances of winning are only ~50% on average. That's not to say it's impossible to build a team that has low passing yards and wins a lot, but it probably requires you to have an amazing defense and running game (this year's 49ers are a nice example - averaging only 219 pass yds/game but scoring a whopping 29 pts/game).

 

So far this season, the Bills are averaging 215 pass yds/game and scoring 19 pts/game. The stats above suggest that it's tough to win many games with those kinds of numbers.