Haha we're going to have a mutual admiration society going down here - likewise, good post.
You're right about "a lot of close games", and about coaching making a difference in them. Another coach who seems to make poor situational decisions when it counts most would be Andy Reid.
Another factor DVOA mid-season clearly can't account for: changes in personnel, either due to injury or due to a player just stepping up and improving as the season goes on or, a player falling off as the season goes on.
To twist the old phrase, it's about both the X's and O's AND the Jimmy's and Joe's.
The TN game field goal was not that fluky actually. 4 FG: 1 blocked. That happens, not his fault. Two, though, were from beyond 50 yds and excluding this year, Santos was 7 of 14 from 50 yards or more. That's just his limit, he's a 50% at that distance. The short one was a fluke for a previously good kicker. So 1:4 fluke maybe 2:4 if you count the block as a fluke.
You could be right....*shoulder shrug.... We shall see
Aaron Schatz (Football Outsiders) on the Bills schedule
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
You could be right....*shoulder shrug.... We shall see