I originally did this in consideration of the 6.5 over/under line for the Bills season but it also illustrates an important idea opposed to the myth to which you refer. Big changes in win totals for teams having a starting QB going into year 2 on their rookie deal are trending. The basic thinking would be:
1) Rookie QBs are not fully equipped to win in year 1 and their team's record will suffer fot it. The highly drafted QBs almost always play in year 1 but teams do not fully prepare them to do so. It's like they are afraid to let the veterans on the team see the starting job handed to a rookie without them "earning" it, therefore the foolish effort to give the Petermans and McCarron's of the NFL the bulk of the reps.
2) QBs usually have multiple advantages going into year 2 as the starter that were not available to them in year 1 and they should be noticeably improved. The entire offseason, usually within the same offense as year 1, gives them many additional months to hone their craft.
3) Their relatively low salary cap numbers are compatible with building the roster around them.
Year 2 improvement is almost a certainty for both the QB and the team. Teams having a sub .500 record where a rookie played at least 8 games went 12 of 14 at improving their year 2 record at least 1 game. That elminates Mahomes, Luck, Dalton, Bridgewater and Griffen from consideration. Glennon and Gabbert were the only over/under "losers." That's 8 of 14 (excluding EJ) with at least a 3 game improvement and 7 of 14 with a 4 or more win improvement. So screw the sophomore jinx crap and dare to think big. A 4 game improvement gets the Bills in the playoffs and 5 or more threatens the Patriots for the divison. These kinds of improvements have been happening almost every year since the current CBA was in place. Why not the Bills in 2019?
QB
Drafted #
Team
Year 1
Wins
Year 2
Wins
Δ
Goff
1
Rams
2016
4
2017
11
7
Trubisky
2
Bears
2017
5
2018
12
7
Watson
12
Texans
2017
4
2018
11
7
Ponder
12
Vikings
2011
3
2012
10
7
Wentz
2
Eagles
2016
7
2017
13
6
Mariotta
2
Titans
2015
3
2016
9
6
Carr
36
Raiders
2014
3
2015
7
4
Winston
1
Buccaneers
2015
6
2016
9
3
Manuel
16
Bills
2013
6
2014
9
3
Mahomes
10
Chiefs
2017
10
2018
12
2
Bortles
3
Jaguars
2014
3
2015
5
2
Tannehill
8
Dolphins
2012
7
2013
8
1
Newton
1
Panthers
2011
6
2012
7
1
Dalton
35
Bengals
2011
9
2012
10
1
Luck
1
Colts
2012
11
2013
11
0
Mayfield
1
Browns
2018
7
2019
?
0
Darnold
3
Jets
2018
4
2019
?
0
Allen
7
Bills
2018
6
2019
?
0
Rosen
10
Cardinals
2018
3
2019
?
0
Jackson
32
Ravens
2018
10
2019
?
0
Glennon
73
Buccaneers
2013
4
2014
2
-2
Bridgewater
32
Vikings
2014
11
2015
8
-3
Gabbert
10
Jaguars
2011
5
2012
2
-3
Smith
39
Jets
2013
8
2014
4
-4
Griffen
2
Redskins
2012
10
2013
3
-7
Notes:
Watson only started 6 games his rookie year.
Jackson 7 games.
Kizer got traded to the Packers after year 1 so he is irrelevant to the discussion.
If you see any other inconsistencies/mistakes I will edit this post accordingly.
Mahomes played 1 game in 2017. He shouldn't be on this list.
The myth of the sophomore QB slump
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
Mahomes played 1 game in 2017. He shouldn't be on this list.