PlayBills
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Posts posted by PlayBills
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Indeed, the pass thing is interesting. What does that tell us?
- The teams we've played are all pass-first in their offensive philosophy?
- We've led 2 of the 3, in the NFL, when teams are playing from behind that means they will generally pass more?
- In the one game we didn't lead, that team is the most "pass-first" them in the league?
- Teams feel the way to beat this Defense is to attack in from the air?
- If the Bills keep putting up points, and are more successful than not in stopping the pass, will teams start to try and grind out long drives to slow the game down? i.e., Try to keep the offense off the field? (Of course the problem with that it that it seems to play right into the strength of the Bills Defense.)
- others . . . ???
I'm sure it's just a result of a perfect storm of unrelated events. Still, out of literally tens of thousands of three game combinations over the past fifty years, it's interesting that the last three weeks ranks at the top, and that the Bills play a team on Sunday that is currently in the midst of a similar historic stretch.
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The Bills have faced 157 pass attempts in the first three weeks, most to start a season in the Super Bowl era (EDIT: it's actually the most passes faced in ANY three game span). And it's not even particularly close - the '95 Dolphins rank second on that list with 147 passes defended. The 10 pass difference between #1 and #2 is the same spread between #2 and #16.
This years' Giants? They're fourth all time.
(League average is 104 passes against, by the way, meaning Bills opponents have crammed four and one half games worth of throws into three games).
Though these numbers often reflect an opponent's necessity to throw rather than a preference, both teams have solid run defenses, which certainly influence opponents' decision-making. What's the over/under for total pass attempts on Sunday?
***Bonus Stat*** In the past ten years, the Bills have been worst in the league in winning the opening coin toss. They're victorious only 43% of the time, which closely resembles their overall win percentage during that span. Hmmm...
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I think this game (and most on the schedule) will unfold a lot like the Colts and Dolphins games. The Bills are aggressive early and get a nice lead, then the defense takes over. I think only a few teams on the schedule will be able to give the Bills trouble ( the Bengals, obviously the Patriots, come to mind), where the lead goes back and forth a few times.
I would guess that at least one of the games against the Jets will be close. but I agree about the Giants. Their offense hasn't been able to consistently move the ball (only three drives of 70+ yards so far), and they've got zero pass rush. Not worried.
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The Giants offense has been very unimpressive so far. 6 touchdowns scored with an average drive distance of 46 yards. They've only scored on two drives longer than 70 yards, and have greatly benefitted from turnovers. As a reference point, the Bills have 12 touchdowns with an average distance of 67 yards. They've only had one touchdown drive of less distance than the Giants AVERAGE touchdown drive.
What this means to me? Limit turnovers on the wrong side of the 50 and move the ball - even if it's yardage gained only to pin the Giants deep in their own territory - and this should be an easy win.
34-17.
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Average starting field position as well might play a role.Yes you are absolutely right. Context matters a great deal. This is why most end of game stats are pretty much useless. They very often times paint a different picture than what actually happened. And they are used by people on forums like this one, to try to justify a position and make something appear true even though it is not.
This game of football is a game of possessions. The goal is to score when you have the ball. The goal is to stop the other team from scoring and take the ball away from them. Other than individual drive stats, the rest of the stats are mostly meaningless with a few exceptions. Certain stats would paint a more accurate picture of how good an offense is and how good a defense really is.
Better stats would be things like these:
Offensive stats:
% of drives ending in turnovers
% of drives starting 70 yards or longer that result in touchdowns
% of drives starting 70 yards or longer that result in field goals
% of drives starting less than 70 yards resulting in touchdowns
etc.......
Defensive stats:
% of drives ending in punts when opponents drive started from 70 yards or longer
% of drives ending in field goals for other team when drive started from 70 yards or longer
% of drives ending in touchdowns for other team when drive started from 70 yards or longer
% of drives ending in opponent's turnovers
% of drives ending in punts when opponents drive starter from inside 70 yards
etc......
Those stats would paint a much more accurate view of which team is better and whether it comes from offense or defense.
And having similar stats for special teams would also help clarify that.
Ultimately the score is what really matters. But drive stats like those would be the next best thing. I bet the gambling insiders in Las Vegas keep track of such stats.
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there is actually a thread about that on the Giants message board. And they spelled Tannehill wrong.
Haha I've read some of that over there. There's a few guys saying the Bills defense is bad because they "gave up 40 points."
Their memory must be selective, because they forget that the 2000 Ravens gave up 36 points in week two to an eventual 7-9 Jaguars team. That defense DOMINATED the Giants in the Super Bowl that year.
Again, statistics without context.
I follow the NBA pretty closely, and theyre light years ahead of the NFL in contextualizing game stats (though admittedly it's easier to do for basketball). I wish more of this stuff would seep into NFL analysis.
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Apparently a lot of callers to sports talk radio shows.
This, too.
The Bills gave up 300 yards to Tannehill, and people will look at that without context and say "Damn, the Bills secondary was suspect against the Dolphins."
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Thanks, I agree with that. Yardage given up toward the purpose of securing a win/maintaining the health of starters is acceptable in my mind.I will take w's. Who cares about yardage in garbage time?
Not making excuses here; just giving perspective on the Bills' high yardage allowed, and how much their offensive onslaught has affected it thus far.
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I prefer to look at it as "statistics with context". I kinda think statistics without context are useless.Selective Statistics - Gotta Love it!!!
I don't beleive all yards are created equal. Of course there is room for disagreement there.
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The Patriots do exactly that. They've given up huge yardage when each of their games was no longer in doubt.
Ryan's said a lot of things, some of them not necessarily relevant to the team's overall success. This is one of those things, I think.
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The Bills defense has allowed more yardage than all but two other teams. But they've been dominant, and are statistically hindered by two blowout wins.
Removing all second-half yards allowed when up by at least three possessions (17 or more points) gives a clearer view of Buffalo's defensive play. It's common belief that teams with large leads late in games will give up garbage yards at the expense of bleeding the clock, and that those yards aren't instructive of a defense's overall game effort. I'd agree with that.
Against the Colts, the Bills gave up 133 yards on 43 plays in 37:40 of non-garbage time play. That converts to a full game of 68 plays for 211 yards.
Against the Dolphins, the Bills allowed 124 yards on 33 plays in 30 minutes of non-garbage time play. That converts to a full game of 66 plays for 248 yards.
Adding in the entirety of the Patriots game gives the Bills standardized season stats of 208 plays for 966 yards allowed, or 4.6 yards allowed per play. That'd put the bills in the top three in the league defensively, even when accounting for the Patriots debacle.
The Bills likely aren't going to have a "top rated" defense this year. But that's more the fault of their surprising offense than it is of anything happening on the defensive side of the ball.
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then explain the standings on NFL.com http://www.nfl.com/standings and http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/standings and http://www.foxsports.com/nfl/standings
NE
Buff
NYJ
MIA
These are correct. 1-1 in divisional games (as the Bills are) is technically better than 0-0 in divisional games (as the Jets are). If the Jets win next Sunday, they'll leapfrog the Bills no matter the result against the Giants.
The Bills performance thus far could put them anywhere from 4th to 9th, in my opinion. 6/7 seems like the most reasonable spot, comparative to what other teams have done thus far.
Bills rank high in "toxic differential"
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted · Edited by PlayBills
I wonder if someone could create a weighted version of this stat. Creating a turnover is more valuable than a executing a 30 yard pass, a 50 yard run is obviously more valuable than a 35 yard run, and it doesn't make sense to have a 100% weight (25 yard pass) so close to a 0% weight (24 yard pass).
Also, it really doesn't matter how the yardage is gained - a 25 yard run has the exact same impact as a 25 yard pass. Don't know why a 10 yard run gets a team a point, but a ten yard pass gets a team nothing.