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VermontFan

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Posts posted by VermontFan

  1. I just wonder, if all the same moves were made, but Marrone hadn't opted out, would articles like this even be written?

     

    I bet not; Rex has brought with him a ton of attention, and is very divisive among the media. This just seems like pure Rex-hate. If it weren't for Rex I wager you'd be seeing a lot of "Buffalo is my 2016 sleeper team" articles. It's hard to look at this roster and say it's not improved from last season--and they won nine games last season.

  2. Predicted Hard knocks stars (if the Bills change their minds):

    Rex

    Boobie

    Nick o Leary

    TT

    I bet Freddy would get a good amount of screen time, too. The long-term, long-suffering vet who wants to win for his team so badly, and who could be fighting for survival at TC, is always a compelling narrative.

  3. I don't care where Mario went to. In what way has Mario signing with us closed the gap against the Patriots? They're always 1st in the divison and we're always 7-9, 8-8, 9-7 and finish 3rd or 4th.

     

    That's your definition of closing the gap?

     

    If that's your definition of closing the gap. Then yes. We've close the gap. The division has closed the gap after signing these great FA players even though the Patriots still manage to finish 1st in the division every year.

     

    Mario Williams, Bart Scott, Mike Wallace, Braylon Edwards, Percy Harvin, Santonio Holmes, Eric Decker, all paid dividends and closed the gap.

    "Closing the gap" and "closed the gap" are not interchangeable. One means you're gaining on your opponent, the other means you've either matched them or overtaken them. The OP postulated that given the recent aquisitions in the AFCE, the other teams in the division are closING the gap; making up ground. When a team other than the Pats wins the AFCE, then the gap will be closED.

     

    The gap still hasn't been closed, but you can't deny the Bills and the others aren't getting closer.

  4. It's not one of the worst in the NFL, but the Drew Bledsoe trade really bombed for the Bills.

    That's a hard one to measure, and hard to say that the trade "bombed." Bledsoe won us a significant number of games on his own, and is the best QB the Bills have had since Kelly. NE got our 2003 first, which ended up being #14. They then traded that and their sixth to the Bears to move up to 13 and grab Ty Warren, who was a solid player for them for a few years. With #14 the Bears took DL Michael Haynes, who was a bust. Also worth noting that the Bears were only at #13 because they traded #3 to the Jets, so that they could move up and grab Dewayne Robertson (also a bit of a bust).

     

    So yeah, the Pats definitely got a good player, but there's no telling that the Bills would've made the same moves if they'd been in that position. So I wouldn't say that the trade "bombed." Drew had us competitive in December, something you can't say about many recent Bills Quarterbacks.

  5. We're Talking Proud! 2014! Go Bills 9-7! No Playoffs! Anyone happy with this is the loser. The kid who's Mom ensured he got a trophy just for showing up.

     

    It's better than 6-10. No they didn't make the playoffs, but they are showing IMPROVEMENT. I don't get why this is so hard for some of you to grasp. Was it frustrating watching the Bills at times this season? Absolutely. But they improved on last season, this coaching regime's first. If they keep improving, then they'll get to the playoffs. Yes, we all want to get there now, but sometimes patience is required, and the Bills are trending in the right direction.

  6.  

     

    Under a previous owner. IMO, all bets are off regarding that.

     

    As for rotating HCs every two/three years, let's get one, for a change, that isn't someone who has no experience or credibility as a head coach in the NFL as have been the last SIX who have led the team NOWHERE but home in the post season!

     

    Right...none of our last six coaches had any head-coaching credibility in the NFL. I think Jauron's 2001 Coach of the Year award has something to say to you.

     

    Go back and look at all the pre-season predictions for how this team was going to do. Very few people thought they would sniff the playoffs, let alone be 9-7. Hell, if you had told me pre-season we'd go 9-7 but miss the playoffs, I would have taken it. Call that "loser's mentality" if you want, but I call it improvement, and it happened under Marrone. With a few tweaks this team could be a real contender next year, and that has me excited.

  7. Just the fact that the NE offense has benifited from over 180 yards on pass interference calls, while the Bills have only gotten 16, seems a little odd, especially when we see plays every week in which Sammy et al. get mauled, and PI could justifiably be called. It just seems like the rich getting richer to me; Brady doesn't need extra pass interference calls to win, but he gets them because he's Tom Brady and if he doesn't hit his receiver there must be some sort of flag on the play, amiright? It's not a fix, but it's bias and it's real.

  8. That is one Hell of a first post.

    Welcome to Pandoras box !! lol

     

    Haha, thanks! I knew I might be opening a can of worms...

     

    Offensive holding calls are also often huge drive killers that are in the refs' toolbox and at their disposal to call (or in the case of the Pats*, not call) on every play. How many times are huge gains wiped out by phantom holding calls, then instead of being up the field with first down its suddenly 1st or 2nd and 20, drive and momentum killed. These are so dangerous because the are so sneaky subjective and many times away from the play, and "can be called every play" up to the discretion of the refs.

     

    Not sure how possible it is, but a most interesting Stat would be on 3rd down, which teams benefit from receiving a 1st down resulting from a penalty on the other team, and which teams are penalized the most on 3rd down to give a first down. These are the sometimes critical game changing situations that the bills seem to be on the short end of so often (and teams like the Pats* seem to benefit from so often).

     

    Of course, as has mentioned, the point in the game certain penalties are called is another huge factor. Drive changing calls at the first part of games can change the whole make of games and put teams in holes, then when the game is in hand, the refs can 'even it out' by making calls against the other team (which could include those mentioned above), By that time, even if it gives a first down etc it does not have the same impact as the earlier calls since the game is already in hand. This is of course almost impossible to quantify which is another reason it is so hard to measure the performance and objectivity of the refs from stats alone.

     

    Yeah, I wish there was a comprehensive list showing whether or not a big gain was wiped out by a penalty, but there's not, and short of going through every game and marking them all down, there's really no way to find out. Holding is definitely a big one, and when I do get around to doing a more thorough analysis (likely once the season's over), it will definitley be factored in in some respect.

  9. Just did a little bit of cursory digging into penalty stats, and what I found is interesting, to say the least. Not that it tells the whole story, but it paints an intriguing picture. I'm planning on doing a more thorough analysis when I get the chance, so I apologize if you think I'm "cherry picking" data.

     

    Here's what I did:

     

    Basically I wanted to see if teams like Seattle, New England, and Denver recived a higher percentage of "big calls" than the Bills. Because I don't have time right now to go through all the penalties, I went with three that are often seen as drive extenders/killers: defensive PI, offensive PI, and defensive holding. The teams I looked at were the top five for most penalized (SEA, TB, NE, DEN, BUF). Not the most scientific method, I know, but I plan to look at the whole league eventually.

     

    The league average on the season for these three penalties is: 15% of total penalties; 21% of total penalty yards.

     

    Out of the penalty totals for each team, these three calls represent...

     

    Called against

    SEA: 15% of total calls against; 22% of total yards against

    TB: 11% of total calls against; 9% of total yards against

    DEN: 16% of total calls against; 19% of total yards against

    NE: 22% of total calls against; 23% of total yards against

    BUF: 18% of total calls against; 28% of total yards against

     

    Called for

    SEA: 21% of total calls for; 27% of total yards for

    TB: 10% of total calls for; 12% of total yards for

    DEN: 22% of total calls for; 29% of total yards for

    NE: 26% of total calls for; 38% of total yards for

    BUF: 11% of total calls for; 11% of total yards for

     

    So yeah, make of that what you will. Clearly these momentum swinging calls are not going in the Bills' favor nearly as often as they are for SEA, NE, and DEN. The Bills commit these penalties at a rate higher than the league average, while the three big dogs are hovering right around it. I'm not saying refs are fixing games, I'm just looking at numbers. I plan on looking at a wider section of calls across the whole league, and maybe, if I have time, factor in down and quarter. I know this doesn't tell the whole story and there are a myriad of other factors to look at, but you can't say it's not intriguing.

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