silver bill
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Posts posted by silver bill
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So the Phish are tanking as is Indy, 3 probable W's for us; Jets are without Kerley so good W potential this Thursday...gets us to 9 W's
So the Saints home game is now a MONSTER for Bills re: playoffs
Indy is in tanking-mode
Saints game next week is now HUGE
I don't understand why people think the Saints game is so big?
Miami was already one of the worst teams in the league, despite having gotten lucky and won a few games. They're even worse without Ajayi. The Jets are also very beatable, and the Colts are too.
There are some tough but winnable games against the Patriots and the Chargers. But we have a very good chance to winning 4 or 5 more games and getting to the playoffs.
The two toughest games on our schedule by far: the Chiefs and the Saints. Would love to see us win one or both, but I'm not expecting it. I still think we'll get to the playoffs though.
Why do you think the Saints game is so big?
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Tyrod is the difference. He has much better touch on the long ball than Fitz. He doesn't turn the ball over and lose games the way Fitz can. Our defense may not continue to play at this level, but they will still play hard and win us some games. As long as TT and Shady don't get injured, this won't be a repeat of 2011.
FWIW I liked Chan quite a bit. I liked Fitz too, fun to root for and a good QB, but not a playoff QB. I think TT will show this year that he is.
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fitz's ring started interfering with his release
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I don't normally engage in these threads, and normally think it is silly for a bills fan to be talking playoffs at this point. BUT i am on board this year. just look at how we are doing in DVOA (on Football Outsiders) - a top defense and top special teams, and an ok offense. And really who else is going to get to the playoffs if not us? The Titans? Ravens? Texans? Remember they all play each other - for every win they rack up there will be losses too. I don't think we need 10 wins to get in. The Raiders? Broncos? Again, they all play each other too, and we hold tie breakers there. They will all struggle to get to 10 wins, as much as we will.
Our lack of depth is a concern - we are a few plays away from 7-0 but also not that far from being a .500 team. The breaks could stop going our way, but the Pats are not unbeatable, and I think the math is strongly in our favor. At this point I'd definitely bet on us going.
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My opinion on Beane hasn't changed but I'm ready to separate McBeane. McDermott has shown me that his teams are prepared, communicate well and in general play to or above their talent.
The Watkins trade is still asinine to me. The Bills desperately lack playmakers and it will catch up at some point. Tyrod and Shady are the only playmakers. It's possible that someone may emerge and maybe it's even a practice squad guy? I liked Reilly and I've always like Dupre. At some point maybe those guys get a shot? I also expect improvement from Zay. At the same time you win with stars in sports and Watkins will be a star (if he isn't already).
In general though our weapons aren't good and it's magnified by the design of the offense. They can't get Shady going on the ground and it isn't because Shady isn't good. There are guys getting penetration and guys not getting separation. When Tyrod or Shady play great they have a chance. They have a chance against the teams that don't get into shootouts. Next week will be tough. In general though they are a dropped pass from 3-0. As much as I blamed Rex for getting the least out of his talent I think McDermott is doing the opposite at the moment.
Agreed. It is fair to say that we may not have beaten the Broncos without Gaines. But we also may well have beaten the Panthers with Sammy. There are the very good players (Jordan Matthews and Zay included) and then there are the rare playmakers who take you to a higher level.
I also am not ready to declare that the Broncos win means we can compete with any elite team. I am not sure the Broncos are elite, or even that their D is elite. They have been before, but things change year to year or even within a season. Recall that in their Super Bowl run a couple years ago, Demarcus Ware was injured mid season and they lost some games, and looked more vulnerable, while he was out. He came back at the end of the season and they rolled through the post season. Point is that one or two key pieces can make a big difference. Our D is dramatically different than last year. We won't know for a few more weeks, or more, if Denver is an elite D and how meaningful this game was. I'm thrilled we played a complete game and won, but I still think it is too early to draw conclusions from it. Now, next week vs Atlanta - we know they are an elite team, playing at home. Look forward to seeing how we stack up.
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Really enjoyed this.
As is often the case, there's always a lot of luck involved with turnovers and momentum. Bills should have the advantage here as well, with Tyrod's record of protecting the ball and the home field advantage. But if they get unlucky with an early turnover or a couple big plays by SF, they could just start handing the ball off to Hyde and the Bills could struggle. I think our chances here are very good though, feeling optimistic.
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The Bills rarely do well against elite QBs, regardless of how the rest of the team is doing. Andy Dalton and Derek Carr are good QBs and could give us problems. Ryan Tannehill and Blake Bortles have had good games, but aren't consistent.
Maybe this year is different, I was thrilled to pull out a W against Carson Palmer after that miserable game against the Jets.
I feel pretty good about the 49ers and the Browns games, and hope we can win most of the games against Dolphins and Jets and Jaguars.
If we can get an upset or two against the remaining ones (Seattle, New England, Pittsburgh) that'd be fantastic, but the odds are against us. Getting Dareus back, and Lawson, and maybe even Sammy at the end would be huge.
It is still very early but it certainly looks like we'll be fighting for a Wild Card against maybe the Ravens, or Raiders/Broncos, maybe the Bengals. Sucks that we lost to the Ravens. I think the Raiders game is a big one for us, could be the pivotal game for our playoff chances.
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love this topic.
my list:
belichick
grudenparcellsherm edwardsbuddy ryanmike shanahanmarronenick sabanpaternobelichick is an a$$. he makes millions but has disdain for the media and fans and news cycle that creates this billion dollar industry that he benefits from. rex isn't as good a coach but at least he gets this and has fun with it. belicheck has an arrogance and superiority that i despise, he is my least favorite personality in the nfl.i don't really dislike rex. he is a big joke and a mediocre coach, but not a villian. -
football outsider ranks us better than every team in the NFC East - their rankings are heavily influenced by stength of opponent so it helps account for the fact that the AFC is much stronger than the NFC this year.
As of last week (they update tomorrow after MNF) we have:
11 Buffalo
15 Washington
17 NYG
24 Philadelphia
29 Dallas
Unfortunately the Chiefs, Steelers, and Jets are all above us.
I think Washington is close enough in ranking to us that with home field advantage they can legitimately expect to be the favorite. We should be expected to beat the Eagles, even on the road, and certainly the Cowboys.
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If by "it" you mean VD, then you are probably correct.
He has Vernon Davis?
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Glennon can read defenses, something our QBs struggle to do. I think he has a future in the league.
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If you're local, it's on CBS.
I'm not local I'm in Washington DC and I don't get NFL Network. Ugh.
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Someone please tell me how to watch this game! I don't get NFL network and can't get out to a bar tonight. Can I watch it online?
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I looked over the schedule in detail. NE and Miami have very hard schedules coming up. I think NE will pull out a 11-5 record though, and Miami will end up 8-8 and just out of it. I have it ending like this:
Den 14-2
NE, Pit, Bal, Ind all 11-5
Buffalo, SD 9-7
In this scenario we just miss, due to the tie breaker with SD. I think the road games to Miami and Denver will be hard to win. KC and GB will also be tough, we likely split those. My guess is we enter the last game of the season against NE with a record of 9-6 needing a win to make the playoffs. NE will be probably be playing for a bye, or home field advantage.
My concern is that although our defense is much improved this year, we struggle against top tier QBs. We have some good ones on the horizon: Manning, Brady, Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers.
That said, we are definitely in the hunt.
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I've scrutinized the AFC schedule for the second half and see us going 4-4 in the remaining games, with tough road losses in Miami, Denver, and NE. I think we'll lose one other, probably GB, or maybe KC. We'll end up at 9-7.
For the rest of the AFC:
DEN 14-2 home field throughout
NE, BAL, PIT, IND all 11-5
SD 9-7
In this scenario we just miss the playoffs due to the tie breaker with SD. If we can pull out one more win and end 10-6 we'll make the playoffs. It will be close.
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I'm not in love with the Mosley pick. I'm just saying it is in keeping with some recent Bills first round picks. He had a very productive college career, and played every down in a tough conference. He may be BPA at #9 on sites that grade prospects. If you ignore his ceiling, which may not be all that high for a top-10 pick, and look at the floor, he may have the highest floor and be the safest pick for a solid contributor. In that we he is very similar to Gilmore, and you could even draw parallels to Dareus and Spiller. I am not saying I am certain this is the pick, I just think it is a very possible outcome.
(Personally I'd prefer that they trade down, and maybe still get Mosley or Aaron Donald, unless Matthews, Robinson, Watkins, or Mack is still available - all very unlikely.)
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With pick #9 the Bills will take CJ Mosley.
Run defense was a huge problem last year.
Their D-line is very strong, and I don't think they will take a safety with the top-ten pick (though Clinton-Dix is a definite possibility.) I think they will go with a run-stopping ILB.
Yes they picked up Spikes from NE, a great run-stopping LB. But that is a one-year deal and he is not an every down LB. Mosley has everything the Bills tend to look for in their recent high picks: started in a tough conference for multiple years, high character, very productive college career, great athlete and a strong work ethic. They will also claim that Detroit was going to take him at #10.
Playoffs? Playoffs?? The Playoff Chances Thread
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
I think the Saints are one of the top teams in the league. I think we will make the playoffs, but I don't see the Saints game as a conservative pick or likely win. Colts and Dolphins x2 for sure. And we should win tonight.
Not the Steelers? Football Outsiders has them as the best team in the league (I think) and well balanced. I'd love to get to the playoffs and not have to play them or the Chiefs in the first round.