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Gleeb

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Posts posted by Gleeb

    Proposed Draft Evaluation Methodology...

    in The Stadium Wall Archives

    Posted

    I'm struggling with this one... I'll address each of the four lines. Remember, you're already getting base points for each level PRO=5 STR=3 BUP=1 WS=0

     

    With the table I want to make adjustments based on how good the draft team was against "expectations" (in quotes). My expectation is that:

    Round 1 pick should be a pro-bowler so why give bonus points

    Round 2/3/4, several players have already been picked so it takes increasing skill to select a PRO, so I'm giving bonus pts

    Round 5/6/7, by now you're "expectation" is that you're drafting for depth/special teams, so getting a PRO here is really unexpected and so I'm taking away the bonus points, they still get the base points. You got luckier than you were skillful.

     

    I'll go back to the Tom Brady example. I have trouble calling the Brady pick a selection of supreme skill. Which is what you're system would classify it as. I'm happy to say the Pats knew what they were doing when they picked Seymour, Mayo, Wilfork, Warren, Gronosky,... but it seems that if they really knew that Brady would be so good, they would have grabbed him earlier with the fear that someone else would pick him. You can't really leave a starting QB sitting around till the 6th round and expect he'll be there

     

    My main issue with your math is that teams are getting double-rewarded for getting hits in the late rounds. They get the points for the postion and the bonus. Again I'm trying to evaluate against expectations at that point in the draft.

     

     

     

    Paragraph 1... I think I'm accounting for differences in rounds through the bonus/demerit system. You make a good point that it doesn't account for role players. A great example of that is Kevin Faulk, who's been invaluable to the Pats for a decade, but might not be rated high enough on this

     

    Paragraph 2... I don't know how this would look yet, I'm trying to refine the method and then see how it applies. Ultimately my thought is to measure 10 years worth of drafts and then see how it moves over time, can do moving averages to show trends and even measure it by GM/Coach regimes. How good was Donahoe compared to Marv compared eventually to Buddy Nix

     

    I've made some additional modifications to the method to account for Trading UP/DOWN... for example the Bills should be penalized extra for having traded up for John McCargo and JP Losman. Those busts are more expensive because they gave up additional choices to get them.

     

    I've also added a category called HOF (potential Hall of Famer... Brady, Manning, Ray Lewis) who there should be higher points for overall.

     

     

     

    Thx,.. I'll look at this more thoroughly, but my first impression is that you need more explicitly quantitative measure of the categories. Here's where I am now:

     

    HOF = 8pt = Potential Hall of Famer

    PRO = 5pt = Selected to a minimum of 3 Pro Bowls

    STR = 3pt = At least 32 career starts (2 full years)

    BUP = 1pt = On NFL roster for at least 64 games (4 full years)

    WSH = 0pt = Less than 64 games on NFL roster

    INJ = 0pt = Less than 48 games on NFL roster due to injury

     

    Had to add the potential Hall of Famer category. There's a difference between Manning, Brady, Ray Lewis, Troy Palamalu and someone like Matt Hasselbeck or Carson Palmer who may also be 3 time pro bowlers

     

    Expanded BUP and WSH to 4 years as guys like John McCargo,... could be rated too high at 3 years. Most first round picks will last 3 years unless they're the most colossal of busts. Ryan Leaf may even have passed the 3 year level

     

    Created INJ category which basically removes the penalties in the per round table if a player washes out due to injury. For example, the Ravens selected Sergio Kindle last year, who may never be able to play because of a fall the left him w/ a cracked skull. I don't want to over-penalize the Ravens for that, because it is beyond their control.

     

    I guess I didn't quite comprehend the bonus points part. My table was assuming there were no bonus points, just points given from the table.

     

    Also, I hear what you're saying about being lucky in the later rounds, but similar to a pass that bounced off a receiver's hands, intercepted and returned for a TD, luck should be rewarded. It won't skew the numbers too much because there maybe one or two 3x probowlers drafted in the later rounds and maybe a few dozen 2 of 3 year starters out there. Also, if I'm not mistaken, Brady doesn't even meet your criteria of making the probowl his first 3 years in the league.

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