Hplarrm
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Posts posted by Hplarrm
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I "take exception" to Hp saying that the Bills need to make few enough mistakes to make the playoffs. I prefer the outlook that the team will make enough positive plays.
The make few offensive mistake model actually only likely works if your team are proactive monsters on D.
I am simply arguing that if the Bills see their route to glory as being dependent upon getting a QB then chances of success are small as either EJ needs to develop into a very good QB (possible but unlikely in what in essence will be his rookie year of fewer than 16 starts in his career) or instead find an existing QB from the available McCoys, Hoyers, etc.
Quite frankly these QBs are generally available because they failed elsewhere. As not likely as I think EJ is to be a star next year, think it is even less likely that any of the other available will be a QB capable of leading this team to the playoffs.
The best chance we have is to try to find a shut down corner and defensive depth so that this team can win with adequate at best QBing we can acquire.
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I think the HC and OC positions have been upgraded to genuine NFL caliber level for the first time in over a decade. I for one expect those changes to have a significant impact on the on field results we see this year. I don't expect Rex and Roman to sit some of their more talented players out of spite like apparently Maroon did. I also think the HS JV playbook and play calling have been scrapped and we have coaches that have a genuine interest in winning every game with the best talent they have on hand. They're also being fed new talent by a football-focused front office. No more PepsiCola signings by Russ. No more Ralph is Cheap. If Rex could get to the AFCC game twice with Sanchize, he should be able to do at least as well with EJ, or AJ, or DJ, or FJ, or BlueJay, or NoJ.
That's just my opinion, and you're entitled to it.
I suspect you are right. My dumb hope is that when the history of what actually happened with the Bills in 2014 and 2015 is written that the summary will be that the biggest improvement the Bills made from 14 to 15 is the addition by subtraction of getting rid of Doug Moron as HC.
Any way you cut it, the simple facts are that under DM and Hacketts guidance they took a team which was one of the most productive running games in 2013 and somehow under produced badly in 2014. These poor O results were somehow achieved despite significant production gains at WR from Watkins rookie year play.
I am pretty certain that EJ is likely a .500 quality QB in this league. A not great, but not bad rookie year for EJ in his injury marred season led to him being 2-2 before Moron panicked and benched him in favor of the about .500 producing QB Orton.
I think the smart road for the 2015 Bills is to focus on improving an already good D to great and hope that either EJ sitting on the bench improved his mind enough to rise a 2 games over the .500 QB he likely is on a team whose calling card is a shut down D.
EJ may well fail to even be adequate as his second learning year was mismanaged by DM/Hackett but by focusing on improving the D, it makes it even easier to choose Hoyer, McCoy, Gabbert or whomever as a solid #2 or potential replacement for EJ.
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The problem is that even a great defense gets you nowhere without at least a decent QB. Did you watch any of Arizona's games after Carson Palmer went down?
I am not suggesting we go QBless. Like it or not the Bills will need to have at least two credible options for running this team. Right now, I do not think EJ has shown enough to be counted upon to be a QB capable of loading the team on his shoulders and carrying them to the playoffs. However, though his play has not made a believer out of me, he actually is obviously physically gifted (though he has not shown mentally he is at pro star levels), and relatively young (he has not even logged 16 starts so why be surprised he plays like a rookie). In addition to being young he has not yet been under the guidance of an offensively competent HC and OC.
He is worth a shot, but the Bills need to bring in another starter prospect (Hoyer, McCoy, whoever all strike me as relatively equally incompetent)
I am not arguing we do not need a QB or that we should avoid a bad QB.
I am arguing that with our primary focus for improving this team being to build a D which rivals the 2000 Ravens, it would mean that our new QB does not need to be a HOF level player like a Jim Kelly or Tom Brady, but instead "merely" needs to be a competent QB at the Trent Dilfer or Brad Johnson level.
The good news is that the 2015 Bills goal is not to demand an SB win (it would be nice but no expectation) but instead simply make few enough mistakes for us to make the playoffs.
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I think after 33 pages, we can all conclude that there are really no good options outside of crazy stuff like Manning deciding to play his last season on NO and NO trading Brees to Buffalo for a couple of high picks. That will never, ever happen.
Let's just face it: the Bills QB situation will in all likelihood be grim this year unless they strike gold with someone like Bryce Petty in the second round or so. I'm not holding my breath.
Again, this is almost certainly true and leads to a conclusion that the best thing the Bills can do get a QB with adequate talent to win is to in fact focus on turning our good D into a great one.
I do not see us drafting or picking up 1 QB who almost certainly carry this team on their talents to the SB.
However, I can more easily see the Bills acquiring a single coverage lockdown CB, who by taking the opponents # 1 WR out of the game would not only greatly enhance the play of other DBs and LBs who get to dt other players and more important give our sack-happy DL even more sacks.
By focusing on instead getting the depth to deal with injuries that are simply gonna happen in today's NFL we give ourselves a far better chance at reaching the playoffs than instead questing about for this one QB who we simply cannot find!
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The league has changed. The rules now dictate that having a difference-making qb rather than a caretaker qb is the only path to the SB.
Lets just make the playoffs first. Then, as in the case of Manning and the Broncos the stud QB sought them out and now they compete for the SB regularly.
Besides even with the skew toward O its hard to see 3 DL players qualifying for the Pro Bowl with one (the FA acquisition) or two (Gilmore seems to be getting it, not being holy heck for even the best O.
I need a QB that can get the ball to Sammy all over the field and hand the ball off. I really don't believe EJ can get the ball to Sammy consistently. He struggles throwing to WRs, which is not good for a QB.
I think the one free agent who has shown the ability to get WRs the football is Brian Hoyer.
Also people call me crazy, but Kirk Cousins has shown this ability. Mike Glennon has as well.
Yes, even a great D is conspired against in this league, but a sack is a sack and this team led the NFL in sacks. Further it produced a ton of INTs even against the best QBs in the league the last few games.
A great D helps improve any difficulties EJ has passing downfield by giving him short fields if they 3 and out the opponent a few times or get TOs.
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to focus on investing to make our very good D a great one.
It seems not only quite unlikely that our physically talented but to this point very inconsistent QB can doo it without a lot more experience (if ever).
It also seems that neither the FA or trade market offers anyone who provides any likely ability to carry the team on their shoulders at QB.
Further, even if on believes some draftee or FA does actually a lot more than the paid league experts can see, it seems pretty risky in this league big fast guys who can collapse your lung with one hit that banking on one athlete to not only come out of the blue but survive the whole season is not a smart strategy.
IIMHO, the smart strategy would be to invest in our good D to try to make it great.
I simply do not se the acquisition of one O player (particularly looking at the available QBs) making this O great (it may even 2 or 3 additional acquisitions merely to make our O good enuf.
Meanwhile, my sense is that this D with the FA room to sign on stud (like a lockdown CB like Revis) and a couple ofr higher quality back-ups for depth can improve itself to be a great D.
By lowering its yards yielded to opponents down they can make the playoffs with a QB who though he is not good enuf to win games on his own, but there should be good enuf not to los them.
Improving our QB performance is not going to be found on whether we choose McCoy, Glennon or Gabbert to be great and carry the team.
They and NONE of the QBs in FA or the draft are likely to carry this team on their shoulders.
However, I think their are several options and approaches which can be done to make this D great,
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All the available QBs mentioned in this thread have significant question marks (Does anyone disagree and feel any of the potential QBs are sure things as athlets).
Even if one chooses to pretend one of these "prospects" is gonna be the stud QB we want, the fact is in today's NFL banking on one player to be injury free all season is dicey at best.
The answer seems clear to me for giving us the best shot at finding an adequate QB:
Lower the number of points that your likely adequate at best QB (be it McCoy, Gabbert, Glennon, or even EJ) have to produce and rack up the Ws..
The best thing the Bills can do to assure adequate QB play is to invest in their D to make it possible for the less than stellar QB they are almost certainly gonna get to win games.
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A great line coach can take a band of retreads and get them to the Super Bowl. The Giants went to the dance with Glenn Parker and Dusty Zeigler starting, both of whom were cut by the Bills. The Pats always have a great line, despite not having big name talent. Sure. Logan Mankins (gone).....who had ever heard of him before he was drafted?
Road graders. That's what we need. I think we have a few of those.
Where is Mouse Davis these days?
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If we are all going on the assumption that we are bringing in FA QBs, Are we not going to wonder if we brought in guys that have worked with Roman before? Both Gabbert and Colt McCoy worked with Roman. I'm assuming one of these guys will be here. Which one would you rather have on the roster? I myself, think that there may be better options out there, but this is the Bills. They will get someone on the cheap and I'm pretty sure both of these guys will not break the Bank. Thoughts. Who has the potential. Can Gabbert be a huge bust? McCoy has the most game experience.
The more important question to determine hether this O performs adequately to win is not likely going to be whether a likely inadequate Gabbert or likely inadequate McCoy is acquired. Neither is going to carry this team to victory on their shoulders.
What I think is more likely to get us enuf Ws to make the playoffs is what D player (s) can we get to turn our good D into a great one!
If we got a shutdown CB like Revis this would force the opposing QB to so badly restrict the opponents O protection that even an inadequate QB like EJ would not have to win the game on his own (which neither he, Gabbert, or McCoy can likely do), but instead simply not make a lot of errors.
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Again, the most reasonable approach to finding some great QB who does not exist is to add the one or two players needed for this D to allow a merely adequate QB to rack up enough Ws mto get this team into the playoffs.
I know folks are addicted to a likely fruitless search for the next Jimbo, but it is almost certainly aint gonna happen. With our current DL we are 1 shutdown corner away from allowing us rack up many a W with a QB who is not capable of consistently carrying the Bills, but simply does not make a lot of mistakes that kill us.
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Yeah, but they didn't go into the season with that formula. Dilfer took over mid season after an injury...
Even more reason to adopt this as the focus of our strategy. A big part of our 15 years of failure has been the near psychotic addiction to trying to find the next Jim Kelley. An HOF QB only comes around once every few decades. It seems much more likely for us to adopt a strategy of build our good D into greatness tjhan depending upon the needle in the hay stack of finding an GOF QB..
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The little talked about QB option that I think the Bills should pursue is the one used by the 2000 Ravens to win the SB with their failed former 1st round choice Trent Dilfer. They built such a strong D that this was the key factor that led the team to the SB.
Can the Bills deliver an SB victory in 2015 with this approach?
No
The good news is that they do not have to. Let's merely make the playoffs first and this quest simply demands not that EJ or whoever is the QB you are psychotic about prove to not be the new Joe Montana bot the next average QB like a Dilfer, Brad Johnson. Mark Rypien etc.
Face it, EJ does not appear playoff ready yet as a team leader nor has anyone made a compelling case as a player capable of leading this team deep into the playoffs, it seems far more likely that our Pro Bowl DL, an LB corps which gets back Alonso on D.
I like the idea if getting of getting a lock down CB like a Revis as ti9ghter coverage simply means more sacks for us.
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I think the main goal is actually not going to be planning on J becoming great (quite unlikely) or find a QB in the draft (quite impossible with this class), or get a great FA o trade (also quite unlikely).
I suspect the QB plan is actually going to be to get a player like a Revis which allows the Bills QB strategy to be similar to the one used by the 2000 Ravens. Make your D so good you can get Ws with a failed former 1st rounder like Dilfer QBing your team.
Can EJ be great? Nope.
Can EJ be merely adequate with a superior D?
Yep!
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I tend to agree with this. Signing Revis, while intriguing, would be a luxury. I'd rather focus on re-signing Hughes and trying to get another QB. Those are more pressing issues.
Actually, signing Revis might be the best things the Bills can do for the QB position. I say this oddity because what Revis brings is he can strengthen the D to a level like Balt in 2000 where a failed 1st rd pick Trent Dilfer though no one would mistake him for a great QB was good enuf as a middlin thrower to win an SB.
Revis has demonstrated an impact like that of CBs like Sherman who on an island alone shuts down the opposing WR.
With 3 Pro Bowlers on the DL, Alonso coming back to give them 4 LBs in their 3-4 (assuming they resign) if Revis were to come in and be a true lockdown CB is added, the Bills would make EJ the QB we need to post Ws as an adequate QB is all we need to win.
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Polians greatest failure in my opinion was not signing Reggie White when he was available, How often do u have a chance to pair the 2 greatest Defensive Ends in history. This would have been devastating for opposing Offenses. Reggie & Bruce both playing on there natural sides. Reggie played left end & Bruce played right end so they wouldn't had to adjust. This non move cost us anywhere from 3-4 Superbowls. We would have been the greatest team in history. Ralph & Bill dropped the ball on this, especially considering that Reggie mentioned Buffalo as a possible destination he would like to play at.
I doubt the old salary cap levels would have allowed this option to survive for long or if it did then simply subtract the Bills ever signing a few of the high quality players (Bennett/Paup/etc) or have any ST depth).
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The goal here should not to turn him into the next Peyton Manning (This simply will not happen). The goal instead MUST be how to make the Bills a more consistent winner and make the playoffs.
My sense of what is realistic and to come up with our version of what the Ravens did to win the SB in 2000.
In this model, the D must improve from being #4 in league to undoubtedly being #1in the league. With the re-addition of Alonso its like getting a 1st round quality draftee) this is doable.
This team can make the playoffs with EJ "improving" not to win every game on h\is own, but instead make sure that like Dilfer for Balt EJ does does not lose the game.
Can Lee turn EJ into the top quality QB we want and deserve?
Nope.
Can Lee bring out the side of EJ that led this team to several nice Ws during his brief career and also suppress the bad EJ who has also led the team to some clunker Ls also in hisbrief career.
Its not guaranteed but certainly possible.
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Spiller is one of the worst RBs the Bills have ever drafted. He doesn't know how to block, follow a block or hold on to the ball. He doesn't know how to fall forward after contact and that is after playing with one of the best yards after contact RBs in NFL history. Just, No. We can find some UDFA RB that can dance in the hole and fumble to replace Spiller.
How do you explain Spiller's history of generating quite impressive yards per carry prior to his poor use this past season?
The obvious attempt to explain this would be to claim that he had high ypc but few carries, but the fact he has carried the ball only a few times, but prior to the broken collarbone which limited him last year, Spiller carried the ball over 200 times the previous 2 seasons and even racked up over 1200 yds in his best season.
In the real world Spiller has demonstrated open field running ability such as in his kickoff return work and racked up some good receiving stats in college.
Is Spiller great
No.
However, is Spiller as you said one of the worst RBs ever drafted by the Bills.
No!
The reality of the situation as clearly indicated by his stats says your assessment is simply wrong.
Right now Spiller enters an RB market which is gonna be soft for him and the Bills likely will be able to resign him cheaply.
The Bills should NOT pay a ton for CJ, but I doubt they will have to.
Spiller seems like he can be a good resigning by the Bills at a reasonable price.
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Apparently he and Ryan developed a close relationship years ago with the Ravens where Roman was asst OL coach.
Getting someone with OL chops is good news in terms of the needs of our team.
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Whaley!!!
1. HC Doug Moron running out on the Bills likely means in the alleged dispute with HC D. Moron Whaley won so clearly that Doug slunk out of town. While it does not speak highly of Whaley that he ended up fighting with an underling, there is always a natural tension between the GM job which is to think and plan for the future and the HC job which has much more focus on the here and now.
I would think even less for a GM who lost the battle with his HC (ala Cowher/TD).
2. The Pegulas pretty much endorsed Whaley by turning the HC search publicly over to him. Even better it was clear Brandon and Overdorf were out of the lead and even loop on this.
3. Whaley hit the ground running speedily pulling off a dozen interviews rapidly and in a huge turnaround from the Ralph days pulled the trigger quickly getting an HC candidate in demand with other teams. The Bills are already moving on OC and DC desires (Roman and Schwartz before the smoke even clears on NFL HC choices.
I do not expect my GM to hit on every move (the jury is still out for a couple of years but looks like he gave up too much to move up for Watkins- this move is not a bust as Watkins is our clear #1 WR as a rookie but woulda/coulda/shoulda he gotten Beckham for no trade. However this potential miscue pales to me nerxt to some spectacular trade and FA acquisitions.
Overall, I feel positive about Whaley's aggressive stance!!!
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I think the Bills have a lot more talent on offense. Seriously with two average guards, we were in the playoffs THIS year.
My sense is the model for the Bills to compete for the SB as soon as possible is the 2000 Ravens.
1. Superior D- For us we have 3 DL players judged Pro Bowl worthy by virtually everyone. your 4th DL player actually had double digit sacks = you resign Hughes if you can because his timing with FA status was great. You show him the $ because he earned it but the deal must be cap friendly for Bills or we say goodbye.
LB situation now looks good as Alonso recovers to join youngsters Bradham and Preston. Spikes you keep with him plying the Ray Lewis leadership role if you go 3-4
DB situation looks good with Gilmore finally showing good stats and showing how well he played when he went out and back-up Brooks got picked on. McKelvn also finally stepped up and Graham a good # 3. Robey is inconsistent but good in slot and # 4 CB. Resign Searcy and I love him, Williams, Williams and Rambo as 4 safeties.
2. Middlin O with EJ asked not to be Joe Montana but simply as good as failed former 1st rounder Dilfer.
3. Solid ST game.
We can do this but we need to avoid QB overdependence.
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Great hire. I said since Marrone left to double down on defense and go get an OC. Love it. Hope he keeps Schwartz so they can be a true hybrid D. But if not no big deal. The D under Pettine could not stop the run because the LB's including Kiko were awful at stopping the run. The run D may take a slight step back with Rex but the turnovers and QB pressure should be nuts.
Next steps:
1. Franchise Hughes
2. Sign Searcy - he should be a beast in this D
3. Extend Dareus as highest paid D lineman in the league
4. Extend Glenn at top 10 LT money
5. Go get Cutler
Why # 1 as Ryan runs a 3-4 normally and if he keeps Hughes which Pro Bowl DL player do you cut or bench?
Why # 5 as Ryan has not successfully developed Sanchez or Geno?
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Which players win/lose with this choice interests me. Unclear as this depends on what D he runs.
If 3-4:
Hughes is likely gone as we have 3 Pro Bowl worthy DL players under contract, but I am not sure what this means as 2 of our 3 DL Pro Bowlers are NT types.
Spikes stays and Alonso joins him as ILB in 3-4.
On O, Ryan teams failed in effort to develop either Sanchez or Geno, can they develop EJ.
Its up to Pegs and Ryan to make this work, but it doesn't make a lot of sense to me as a fan.
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Is losing our 1st a fatal blow?
Naw- One certainly would rather have a #1 than not. However, the current braintrust finds with our second a player with the production of past #2 Alonso, or even get an everyday starter of former #2 Woods, then I am unconcerned. In fact even if this next #2 has the disappointing season of last year's #2 Cujo, back in the real world we found a great replacement for our Cujo hopes in 7th rounder Henderson.
This loss of our #1 is a small prob but Whaley's team has shown this problem may well get fixed.
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The NYC press loves controversy above all things. It does not matter who is right, wrong or shades of gray about DM, it all easily adds up to column inches for articles on NYJ. Ironically, this dispute probably helps him win the job as the press will just have to make sure they spell J-E-T-s right in articles more prominently displayed over articles which focus on actual football play of Odell Beckham or whether Eli has anything left in the tank.
WR Percy Harvin's first visit is with Bills
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
As is the case with many cancers, a one year deal is a great deal to sign for a team. In their first year a cancer is a great player in order to rack up stats which endear him to a vocal segment of the fan base and ingratiate himself with half his teammates.
He cannot be a cancer immediately by definition in his first year because he cannot divide the team until he enlists te support of ether half the team or some critical mass.
Cancer players need not scare you if you have a plan and ability to deal with it.
Actually I am happy bout risking future for a real playoff run in 2015 w/ Harvin producing for 2 win favor