TXBILLSFAN
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Posts posted by TXBILLSFAN
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I thought Orton's contract was player option for 2015 ? If that's the case, and he opts IN and Bills cut him, wouldn't that create dead money in 2015 to the tune of $5M ?
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I think the issue with dumping Hackett and keeping Marrone is the limited appeal the Bills OC position would have with a HC (Marron) that would clearly be on the hot seat from game #1 in 2015 --- not to mention, no franchise QB. Where a new HC would know he'd have at least 2 years (probably 3) and also have both sides of ball to be evaluated against.
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Start EJ. Where is this going with Orton, 7-9, maybe 8-8, sure as hell not 10-6.
At least with giving EJ another 6 games, we can see if he's made any progress sitting and learning. I'm not getting my hopes up, but, I think it's worth a shot.
I'm sure the Doug's won't do it, would be interpreted as a sign they are "giving up" on season
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Who would come ?
I suspect a few years ago, the Bills couldn't attract a top tier HC because of some combination of (a) long term ownership concerns; (b) money (I know several of you would say otherwise, but, bottom line, we've yet to "overpay" for an HC and (c ) roster talent
As a franchise we've addressed all 3 except roster talent when it comes to QB.
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Since the beginning on faked/forced -- more like he was trying to figure out who he wanted to be, instead of just being who he is.I think that much like Kelly his system will work with mediocre talent. Kelly is winning with Nick Foles and Mark Sanchez. It is about creating mismatches and that is what he does best. That is my biggest fear with the guys out of the league. The technology and analytics have changed the game so, so much.
Don't be scared off because Marrone hasn't been good. It's not where he coached previously that is leading to his struggles it is what he believes in. the punt at the 45 with 9 minutes to go is the best example. That conservative nature is DEAD (which is why I think that Cowher will be a disaster). You are either attacking or being attacked. Marrone's teams rarely dictate on offense, they react.
In addition to his philosophy his personality is a problem. He is stubborn. He would rather be wrong than have someone say "I told you so."
The league is just a so much different now. Analytics and technology have changed the game. The game is won and lost before the ball is snapped. It is less about "leading men" and more about what position you put your guys and their guys in. The talent pool is fairly close across much of the league. The Bills are certainly in the top half of the team in overall talent. They need someone that will be able to maximize those talent gaps and expose mismatches. The offensive coaching staff has failed miserably at that.
I'm buying this. Harbaugh and Kelly both have strong personalities too (kind of like Belicheck). Carroll is the opposite. I think that Briles is closer to Carroll and Malzahn closer to Kelly on the personality scale. Each has proven that they can win (which Marrone never had).
You are right on Marrone. Everything feels kind of fake and forced.
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College game is definitely influencing the pro game more than the other way around.
With that said, college coaches are not all wired to succeed at the pro level, I think Chip Kelly is making the adjustment necessary, but he still has issues with some players -- Harbaugh's issues have been well publicized --- I think, in the end, players adjust when they have respect for winning and HC's that know how to create winners --- I think that's Marrone's ultimate downfall -- players spot a phony and I think in the end, his talent doesn't match his rhetoric
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I think the world of him as a football coach. He's great. They say that he is a great guy as well. That program is in good hands.
I think the key quality or attribute that keeps coming out is INNOVATOR ! I thought that's what we were getting with Marrone/Hackett/Pettine and, as it turned out, only Pettine filled the bill.
I look at Arians and Chip Kelly and I am floored with the success both have had with non-franchise QB's !!
As we all know, finding a franchise QB is HARD, so, in the meantime, we might be looking a couple years of making do without one. Kelly has won with Vick/Foles/Sanchez and Arians has won with Palmer/Stanton.
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Probably not. However, Briles, at his core, wants validation and might see an OC position as the stepping stone to an NFL HC position and a chance to prove his system is superior to others in college and NFL.You really think that Briles will leave the head coaching position of a top 10 team, making over $4M a year to be an OC? No chance IMO
In full disclosure, I am a parent of a Baylor student and have followed the program intently over the past 5 years and have made several personal connections along the way. I would hate to see Briles leave for any position in the NFL (except the Bills).
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My biggest disappointment with the Marrone hire is that we missed out on two legit offensive geniuses (Arians / Kelly)that off-season, we were sold by FO, that Marrone was aggressive, forward thinking innovator and we got yet another stodgy conservative HC.
I voted Harbaugh, because I think he has chops to bring in top OC and top DC, however, I'd be intrigued about luring Bowles from Arizona if he could bring Briles with him as OC. I think Briles might make jump to NFL for OC position.
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How many wins does the Bills coaching staff need to keep there jobs for another year, (A) 8, (B)9 © number
isn't important.....
10
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The Bills are AVERAGE, not good. Our standards as fans should always be HIGH, we should expect our team to be competitive and make the playoffs on a regular basis. 15 years without the playoffs is an embarrassment as a franchise. I think too many Bills fans have come to accept this as "okay". It's NOT!
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15 years of watching since Kelly left town, that's why. It's a learned behavior that has been reinforced time and time again.I will never understand why fans watch a quarterback play very well, then preach doom and gloom down the road.
Its not normal..
I'm sure a QB will come to town at some point and prove us all wrong, I doubt that's Orton. He's played well, but he is NOT the long term answer.
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Agree with your thoughts, except your assumption on my opinion on BPA.If you are plugging "holes" at #9, and in doing so taking inferior players to those available at other positions, then your draft strategy is on trial. If on the other hand you think that a top OL or top LB is the best player available at the pick, then go ahead and take him without worrying about the holes to plug.
When you draft for perceived need, you over-estimate the ability of a rookie to contribute in year 1, and you guarantee that you are adding less total talent to your roster over the four or five year rookie contract.
In Watkins' case, I think the trade is exciting and reasonable. We clearly got a better player this season than would have been available at #9, and the extra pick we gave up to move up is dropping in value from the "Hey, we could have drafted a Maybin with that pick!" to the "Hey we could have drafted a McCargo with that pick!" (I am jokingly cherry picking).
What cannot be doubted is that we got more 2014 value than without the trade. The only question is if the value of the unknown 2015 pick we gave up proves too costly over the next few years compared to the difference between Watkins and who we reasonably would have considered at #9.
When there is little or no difference in the rankings of several players, you pick the one that fills a position of need -- all teams do that. The BPA philosophy comes into play when you "reach" for a player based on need. The one exception a lot of teams will allow for is QB. Bills did that with EJ, many others have done that as well.
Beckham, Lewan, Mosley and Barr all had 9th overall grades by most draft experts.
Said another way, if in the 2014 draft's 2nd round, the Bills had similar grades on OT, DT and WR, they would take OT, why ? they didn't need another DT and just selected a WR.
Said a third way, if you take BPA to an extreme a team could, in theory draft a WR in 1st, 2nd and 3rd rounds. That would never happen. Common sense factors in.
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Yeah, Chris Brown stated in one of the videos after the draft that Ebron was the guy. I was very surprised to see that.
Got it, yeah Chris Brown is the mouthpiece, so I'd buy it if he said it --- I wasn't a big fan of Ebron heading into draft, didn't like his attitude and didn't like taking a TE with a pick that high --- although, a great TE is almost as good as a great WR these days
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I understand all that. But the Benjamin pick at 9 wasn't really a viable option. No one thought he was worth that or would go that high. I just think it's kind of a hard argument to make that the Bills should have taken Benjamin and then kept the pick when it really wasn't a scenario without hindsight 20-20. But a very legitimate one if you were saying hey, Benjamin is really good, take him at 9 because everyone knew Sammy would be gone by 1-5.
And I totally understand your philosophy on a QB.
My argument at the time, and it hasn't changed, is that for virtually all teams, a number one pick is a 50-50 crap shoot in retrospect. There are precious few surefire can't miss guys. Some years there isn't one. Watkins was one, and almost sure to be a star. If you knew you would have a star player every two years, and no pick the next year, I would do it every single time. You would be a perennial Super Bowl contender.
I didn't want to suggest that I thought the Bills would have taken Benjamin had they stayed at 9 --- because, I don't think he was rated high enough to warrant that -- if they wanted Benjamin, they could have traded back into the low 20's and comfortably gotten him --- now that would have been an interesting move, but really a "hindsight is 20/20" argument
More than likely, had the Bills stayed at 9 and wanted a WR, Beckham would have been the choice --- others have stated that the Bills are on record as saying they'd have taken Ebron --- I would have wanted them to draft Mosley, Barr, Lewan or Martin --- not sure how Lewan is doing, but the others would have been nice fits --
I\
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My draft strategy isn't on trial in this thread, but, for what it's worth and to give you a sense of my perspective, I wanted Bills to stand pat at 9 and take either a top OL or top LB. I thought those were the two most important holes to plug. In a deep WR draft, I thought if they wanted to go in that direction they could wait, but also thought a upgrade at TE made more sense in round 2.Unless you were publicly screaming relentlessly for the Bills to please draft Kelvin Benjamin with their number one pick that is a tough stance to support. Perhaps you were.
I think a team without a franchise QB needs to hold onto their 1st round picks in order to have the best chance to land one, whether that's a trade or using the actual selection on one. I was not sold on EJ at the time of the draft and I am even less sold on him now. The loss of the 1st round pick remains my biggest issue with the Watkins trade.
The OP wanted us to weigh in NOW, not after the season or after the next draft -- both of those time periods might yield different conclusions.
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Just because I'm not picking out Sammy's bust for Canton doesn't mean I don't think he's had a very good first 8 games. Why is it all or nothing with some people ?Absolutely and for the record, I'm not trying to bash TX just pointing out that an observation like that smacks of bias. Anyone who has had the privileged to watch Sammy live (I got to spend a lot of time at camp this year) knows the way the guy explodes into routes and his physical tools make him virtually unguardable.
I drafted Benjamin in nearly all my fantasy leagues and have watched every one of his games -- he does not bring anywhere close to the skills that Sammy brings. Even with a broken rib and EJ at QB, Sammy was matching him stat for stat. Now that he's healthy and has a vet QB throwing the rock, Sammy is doing what he does best: putting distance between himself and the rest of the pack.
Look, I've said on numerous occasions that I've been very happy with Watkins, the player. All I said in my post is that I haven't seen him being that significantly different than Benjamin and Beckham AT THIS STAGE, 8 GAMES IN ! His production has been inconsistent and he's had a couple mental lapses that are typical of a rookies, so has Benjamin and Beckham has been hurt. Benjamin made a great catch in the Seattle game on Sunday between 2 All PROS (Thomas and Sherman), he's a good player.
Why does thinking another WR is good have to take something away from Watkins ? You can love Sammy's play and still respect and love Benjamin's.
If I had to pick one WR from that draft today, I'd pick Watkins. No doubt. But, at this stage, I'd rather Benjamin and our 1st and 4th pick next year.
Again, let's let sustained and consistent performance determine his value and the value of the trade.
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Nothing beats the NHL trade deadline, consistently the best of the 4 majors -- NFL is historically a snoozer --- maybe the transition to new schemes is too difficult or teams place to high a value on draft picks -- either way, I'm not expecting much
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LOL !! So, the way this works, you can make up imaginary scenarios but other posters can't ?But that didn't happen.
If the Bills traded their entire draft for RGIII, would you be upset? Who cares it doesn't matter.
We all understand opportunity cost of the trade.
However Beckem and Benjamin were not on the list Ebron was on the list.
The choices are
A. Eric Ebron, a 2-6 record at the bye, a Top 10 pick in 2015.
B, Sammy Watkins, 5-3 record at the bye, and delivering a pick in the 32-15 range to Cleveland.
You can make up as many imaginary scenarios as you want.
Above were the two choices OBD presented as their options. (obviously they didn't know the exact impact of Sammy before the trade but that's what they were risking)
That doesn't bring into consideration the rest of Sammy's career. Which may or not compare well with Beckem or Benjamin but it doesn't matter because OBD wasn't going take either Beckem or Benjamin at #9 overall.
So you can imagine a world where Bills fans can complain about the Ebron pick but it isn't particularly relevant to a discussion of the Watkins trade and the option OBD had at the time.
My point is very simple. I believe the Bills traded their 2014 and 2015 1st and 2015 4th to select a player (Watkins) that, at least at this point (8 games in), is not significantly better than the next best option for that same position (WR) had they stayed at 9.
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It was billed as a great WR draft and certainly seems to be turning out to be true.
Watkins, Benjamin, Beckham, Matthews, Cooks, Adams all having an impact and look good, even Moncrief and John Brown starting to play --- and more on the way
I know we don't have the luxury of hindsight, because, you can't do that for a couple of years, but, as well as Sammy is playing, I'm still not ready to say he's that much better than Benjamin and Beckham. 8 games isn't long enough to accurately make that statement even under the best of situations.
Where it stands now, it looks like Watkins will be very good with a potential of being great. But, if Beckham and Benjamin reach that same level, it affects how you view the trade.
Put it this way, if Bills had traded up to draft Dareus and could have stayed where they were and drafted Watt and have an extra 1st round pick, would it have been a good trade ?
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I was discussing this with a friend yesterday, and we came up with the following definitions for QBs:
Elite - The best of the best, who (a) have proven it over a long period of time, and (b) continue to be the best of the best on a game-by-game basis today. As of today, the only 3 guys that fit into this category are P. Manning, Rodgers, and Brees.
Franchise - The QBs you can envision winning a Superbowl with as your starter. Long list here (16) - Brady, Dalton, Flacco, Roethlisberger, Luck, Rivers, Wilson, Kaepernick, Palmer, Stafford, Cutler, Newton, Ryan, E. Manning, Foles, Romo
So that makes 19 "franchise" QBs if you go by that definition. Obviously there will be some debate as to players that should or shouldn't be on either of the two lists above; I think your point stands about there being anywhere from 12 to 16 teams looking for a franchise guy every year.
As a side note, here are the guys I put as possible franchise guys that either aren't there yet or have the ability and haven't proven their worth:
Tannehill, Hoyer, A. Smith, S. Bradford
The rest of the guys are total wild cards IMO.
I have same list of 19.
I'd probably split the groups a bit differently:
Elite+ (your Elite definition plus I'd add comment that they continue to be game changers every week)
Elite minus (won SB before, can win again, but are not game in and game out game changers)- Brady, Roethlisberger, Wilson, E Manning, Flacco)
Franchise: the rest of your 19
The special exception I'd have would be for Luck, I'd probably move him into Elite minus, simply because he is that good
That leaves 11 teams.
It astounds me that we've been in that last category since Kelly left !! --- that's over 20 years
Circling back to the OP, that is why I struggle so much with the Watkins trade --- losing that 1st next year eats at me every day -- I get that there are no guarantees with the pick that we'd land a franchise QB, I just feel until we have one of those "19", we are playing for 7-9, 8-8 or 9-7 and if we are lucky we pop a 10-6 in there, but no chance for a SB !!
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Your forgot Luck.Everyone wants a franchise QB. To your point, I don't see Dalton, Ryan, Stafford, Cutler, Bradford, Tannehill, etc... hoisting the Lombardi either. Outside of the QBs that have won a SB (Brady, Ben, Rodgers, Brees, Manning, Manning, Flacco, Wilson) the only other guys that I can picture winning are Kaepernick and Rivers (I like Cam too but his team isn't good). I can't picture Romo, Foles or Ryan. Even if you count all of that guys you are still looking at 1/2 the league that has a franchise QB.
If you have 16 teams looking every year you find teams reaching and convincing themselves that EJ, Ponder, Locker, Geno, Tannehill, etc... are franchise guys. You don't keep drafting Locker's because you have EJ. If the right guy isn't there you can't pull the trigger. We are as good an example as anyone on that topic.
I would also disagree with you on Ryan, Newton, Stafford, Romo and Cutler. I think all of them on Seattle last year, win the SB.
I know it's not easy, but, I'd rather the Bills make it a point to use a 1 or 2 on a QB every other year until they find one. That philosophy would have had them drafting Dalton, Kaepernick -- it would also have them drafting some duds, but I'll take that over only using a top draft pick once a decade.
I just know the ceiling for this team and franchise is way below Super Bowl until we get one. Do you all agree with that ?
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Collins was 20 drafts ago, that's why I said 19.I think that Collins was a 2nd in 1995 and they traded a 1st for Johnson and a 1st for Bledsoe. They have used the resources just not very well.
I get the RJ and DB moves
My point is simple, get the right QB whatever it takes, then build the rest of the team.
I can't imagine Manuel or Orton or Tuel hoisting the Lombardi trophy, and if they can't, where is this team heading except to the land of mediocrity.
Sammy looks like he'll be great, but to what end ?
Get the QB.
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3. None played 16 games before being benched either.
3?
Manuel and Losman are only ones over past 19 drafts that I recall.
Would you trade our 2016 1st rd pick for Drew Brees?
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
I think Brees, Brady and P Manning have all looked poor at times this year and all are on the downside of their respective HoF careers -- BUT, and this is a HUUUGGGEEE BUT, they are all still playing in the Top 5 of QB's in the NFL !!
Top 5 (in no particular order): Brees, Brady, P Manning, Rodgers, Luck
What Brees, Brady and P Manning lack in physical skills as they age, they make up with football IQ, each knowing their respective offenses and other team's defenses better than most OC's and most DC's ---
I do disagree with Kirby in that there isn't a 0.0% chance Brees would be traded (strange things can happen), so, let's say it's 0.1%
So, there is a better chance EJ becomes a franchise QB, since that's at 0.2%, so, let's work on that plan first since it's twice as likely to happen ;-)