Trade for BTJ?

[Low Positive]

10 minutes ago, Logic said:

Thanks.

I'm aware of the "BTJ can't/won't go over the middle" stuff from last year.

He was injured last year and, yes, probably mentally affected in some way. He WASN'T an effective receiver over the middle last season.

Fast forward to this year, and all the talk in Jags camp was how different he looked this year (in a good way). How much rapport he had built with Lawrence, how his explosiveness and surehandedness had returned. Many analysts in both the fantasy and game prognostication realms pegged him for a strong comeback season.

Ultimately, I think there are too many mouths to feed in Jacksonville right now. I also think that not every receiver is a fit for every head coach and/or every scheme.

I continue to believe that BTJ offers something no one else on the Bills roster currently offers at receiver, in terms of his downfield speed and explosiveness. I think putting him on the outside opposite DJ Moore would open things up even more for guys like Kincaid and Shakir and would make life hell for opposing defenses.
 

I don't know. I just went through his targets in the first three games, and he was only targeted three times week one and once last week. But in Denver in week 2, they made an effort to get him into the game. He had two drops on sideline throws where he was open but felt the defender behind him. Both times, he feels the hit coming and drops the ball. One was a high pass, but the other would have been a first down in the fourth deep in Broncos territory. If he feels a DB behind him, he loses focus and drops the ball to brace himself for the hit. It happens almost every time. 

[vtnatefootball11]

3 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

Not sure why (other than talking heads talking about it constantly because they have nothing to talk about) a bad arizona team, that everyone expected to be bad, is going to bail on a highly touted WR on a rookie contract.  Even with how poorly he's performed i'd only really do it if i got an offer that blew me away.  

 

For BTJ, I'd probably rather just do it in the offseason.  I also wonder if its like a miami situation where they'd never trade with us anyway - we literally beat them in the playoffs last year with Cooks and Gabe Davis.  So do we bother trying, I guess if we think that it'll drive the price up for someone else.  If they traded him I'd imagine its a rebuilding team like Miami.  

 

I don't see a lot of teams acquiring WR's mid-season that make huge strides.  I guess you could argue shaheed - but he was on the saints in 2024 with Kubiak too, so there's additional familiarity there.  He also made a greater impact as a returner than WR.  Same with Toney with KC.  Other examples are like Hopkins with KC, but he didn't really do anything in the playoffs.  

 

The other thing is - we just traded for DJ moore and drafted skylar bell.  It's been 3 games and nobody is out for the year.  It just feels like we're bailing on a plan that's working so far.    

 

Agree on the difficulty of the trades. Jax is going to be reluctant to trade to us. But this wouldn't be "bailing" on any plans. This would be a low risk, high reward upside addition on a rookie contract, not just for this year but the next few. Even with Moore, our WR room is below average. Coleman/Palmer are not starter worthy boundary players, period. Moore is really more of a WR2 (don't get me wrong I"ll take it because we had nothing before!). We are very likely not going to get the opportunity to draft a high end WR talent late first. Taking this kind of mid round flyer on a guy with proven talent is a risk worth taking when you have JA17. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

1 hour ago, vtnatefootball11 said:

 

Agree on the difficulty of the trades. Jax is going to be reluctant to trade to us. But this wouldn't be "bailing" on any plans. This would be a low risk, high reward upside addition on a rookie contract, not just for this year but the next few. Even with Moore, our WR room is below average. Coleman/Palmer are not starter worthy boundary players, period. Moore is really more of a WR2 (don't get me wrong I"ll take it because we had nothing before!). We are very likely not going to get the opportunity to draft a high end WR talent late first. Taking this kind of mid round flyer on a guy with proven talent is a risk worth taking when you have JA17. 

 

I just don't get why a teams trading WR3 when they're 2-1, coming off a 14-3 season.  Why would they want picks now?  

 

I'm not sure his value goes down much at all now vs. then (i suppose he could get injured), and you can trade him in the offseason and acquiring team still can make the call on the 5th year option.  Hell you can trade him during the draft too since that is also pre-5th year option decision date.  

5 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:

You make good points KJ,so I would meet you in the middle.  If he continues to not perform in Jax, or Coen continues to rely on 2 and 13 personnel then I can see a trade by the trade deadline.  What makes that easier is if one of the guys I mentioned gets injured again.  
 

The trade deadline is November 10th, after week 9 of the NFL.  That obviously is only for the last 8 games, and even if he doesn’t play right away would be for an abridged salary, and probably as you mention KJ, a day 3 pick.  In that scenario, I’m all for it.

 

Another poster mentions his rookie year was all garbage time, but I don’t agree.  If BTJ is actually who we think he could be and Josh loves throwing to WRs, then this could help us with the end of the year push.  If Palmer walks next year, and Bell continues slowly to grow in playing time, then we may not be pounding the table for another top draft pick for a WR.

 

So KJ, your post made an impression on me.  I normally enjoy your posts, so there are some posters I try and reevaluate my thoughts on a topic.

 

Enjoy the weekend guys, and go Bills.  This is the one game more tha many I get excited to see an ars whipping.

 

I think the problem is... we rely a lot on 12 and 13 personnel too.  It's not even performance - if there are only 2 WRs on the field he's #3.  His snap mix also just looks like he's the #3 WR on a team that uses 2 TE's quite frequently.  

 

Keon - 63 routes on 116 snaps and 10.98% target share with a 12.78 aDOT.

BTJ - 52 routes on 75 snaps and 15.79% target share with a 10.83 aDOT.  

MHJ - 110 routes on 163 snaps and 7.89% target share with a 17.67 aDOT.  His .66 Yards per route run and .09 targets per route run are tied with jeudy for... i dunno bad. Cardinals also have a dump off merchant at QB so i'd imagine thats not helping motivate a player.  

 

I also just don't see him traded in conference to a contender.  I know I wouldn't do it.  If he's really got his agent complaining to the media to try and get this narrative going, i'd just ship him off to miami.  

[vtnatefootball11]

Just now, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

I just don't get why a teams trading WR3 when they're 2-1, coming off a 14-3 season.  Why would they want picks now?  

 

I'm not sure his value goes down much at all now vs. then (i suppose he could get injured), and you can trade him in the offseason and acquiring team still can make the call on the 5th year option.  Hell you can trade him during the draft too since that is also pre-5th year option decision date.  

 

Yeah I think most are in agreement that Jax is unlikely to trade BTJ to us. Would they trade him to a non-contender for an early 3rd round pick? Probably. What team isn't looking to stockpile picks in this 2027 draft, or heck just stockpile picks anyway? If you have a talented player you aren't using, you trade him before his value falls too much. That's just good business. You need quality picks for to play early for cap purposes, even on contending teams. I do agree that they could also trade him in the offseason, but the value is probably less if he continues not to play. He may also be a bit of a distraction internally right now, who knows. Regardless, the point is the Bills should at least be checkin on this, MHJ as well. We need more talent in our WR room. 

 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Just now, vtnatefootball11 said:

 

Yeah I think most are in agreement that Jax is unlikely to trade BTJ to us. Would they trade him to a non-contender for an early 3rd round pick? Probably. What team isn't looking to stockpile picks in this 2027 draft, or heck just stockpile picks anyway? If you have a talented player you aren't using, you trade him before his value falls too much. That's just good business. You need quality picks for to play early for cap purposes, even on contending teams. I do agree that they could also trade him in the offseason, but the value is probably less if he continues not to play. He may also be a bit of a distraction internally right now, who knows. Regardless, the point is the Bills should at least be checkin on this, MHJ as well. We need more talent in our WR room. 

 

 

Usually ones who want to go to the super bowl.  The current regime didn't draft him (and honestly draft pedigree means very little once you're on the team), but they still use him plenty.  People get hurt - not always for the season but I'd probably rather have him come in for a game or two and play heavy snaps vs. 6th round rookies or my starting corner. 

[Alphadawg7]

3 hours ago, Logic said:

Thanks.

I'm aware of the "BTJ can't/won't go over the middle" stuff from last year.

He was injured last year and, yes, probably mentally affected in some way. He WASN'T an effective receiver over the middle last season.

Fast forward to this year, and all the talk in Jags camp was how different he looked this year (in a good way). How much rapport he had built with Lawrence, how his explosiveness and surehandedness had returned. Many analysts in both the fantasy and game prognostication realms pegged him for a strong comeback season.

Ultimately, I think there are too many mouths to feed in Jacksonville right now. I also think that not every receiver is a fit for every head coach and/or every scheme.

I continue to believe that BTJ offers something no one else on the Bills roster currently offers at receiver, in terms of his downfield speed and explosiveness. I think putting him on the outside opposite DJ Moore would open things up even more for guys like Kincaid and Shakir and would make life hell for opposing defenses.
 

 

I personally don't think its as simple as there are too many mounths to feed, he has just not been very good.  I mean - he is not a great route runner, has a limited route tree, has had issues with focus and inconsistent effort, shown too many times to play scared and lack physical and mental toughness.  Like the tape shows a lot of issues.  Despite being a first round pick entering just his 3rd year, he has fallen behind journemany WR's and less heralded guys for a reason.  

And while the season is early and his story not fully written, he still hasn't shown any improvement over the issues last year.  He is 1 catch above a 50% catch rate, has multiple drops, and still isn't a great route runner.  He also doesn't play to the speed his 40 time suggests as his speed is rooter more in that long straight line strider speed.  And despite having great size, he plays kind of small beause he doesn't seem to like contact.  

I am not against taking a flyer on a change of scenery for him here, but whose job does he take?  They are not trading Moore or Shakir.  With how Keon has bounced back, it is debateable if they would include him or not.  And Palmers contract makes it hard to trade him.  Thats already 4 guys in the target demand and you still have Kincaid and Cook getting targets too.  So there really isn't a place for him unless Keon or Palmer somehow is included in the trade, and even then he would be at best 5th or so in the target peking order.  

 

Now add in the fact Buffalo leads the NFL in scoring and has holes at CB right now, and a trade for a struggling WR seems unlikely compared to considering help at DB if they did look to make a move.  

 

3 hours ago, Low Positive said:

I don't know. I just went through his targets in the first three games, and he was only targeted three times week one and once last week. But in Denver in week 2, they made an effort to get him into the game. He had two drops on sideline throws where he was open but felt the defender behind him. Both times, he feels the hit coming and drops the ball. One was a high pass, but the other would have been a first down in the fourth deep in Broncos territory. If he feels a DB behind him, he loses focus and drops the ball to brace himself for the hit. It happens almost every time. 

 

Agreed with everything you said here...and quite honestly, toughness is something you have or you don't.  Sometimes you can have it and lose it (injury, big hit, big scare, etc)...but its much harder to lack it and then suddenly find it or regain it.  

Edited October 2 by Alphadawg7

[Einstein's Dog]

8 hours ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

Not sure why (other than talking heads talking about it constantly because they have nothing to talk about) a bad arizona team, that everyone expected to be bad, is going to bail on a highly touted WR on a rookie contract.  Even with how poorly he's performed i'd only really do it if i got an offer that blew me away.  

 

For BTJ, I'd probably rather just do it in the offseason.  I also wonder if its like a miami situation where they'd never trade with us anyway - we literally beat them in the playoffs last year with Cooks and Gabe Davis.  So do we bother trying, I guess if we think that it'll drive the price up for someone else.  If they traded him I'd imagine its a rebuilding team like Miami.  

 

I don't see a lot of teams acquiring WR's mid-season that make huge strides.  I guess you could argue shaheed - but he was on the saints in 2024 with Kubiak too, so there's additional familiarity there.  He also made a greater impact as a returner than WR.  Same with Toney with KC.  Other examples are like Hopkins with KC, but he didn't really do anything in the playoffs.  

 

The other thing is - we just traded for DJ moore and drafted skylar bell.  It's been 3 games and nobody is out for the year.  It just feels like we're bailing on a plan that's working so far.    

Several counterpoints - first, for me anyway, forget BTJ and concentrate on MHJ! 

 

AZ would certainly have interest in moving MHJ - it clearly isn't working.  And AZ needs draft capital - their QB situation is untenable.

 

Mid-season or inseason WR trades have made differences - see Pickens or even with the Bills A Cooper.  And hopefully this wouldn't be limited to just this season.

 

This isn't bailing on a plan that's working, it's meant to improve a position - and depth- before it's a problem.  I have been one who hasn't wanted to block the possiblity/development of S Bell (like I was against B Cooks) but MHJ is different.

[machine gun kelly]

KJ,

 

I went through yesterday regretting my initial post, telling you we didn’t need him.  Ok, fine you’re right.  We need him.  He’s only had 9 receptions for 105 yards in 4 games.

 

we can’t leverage this year on Moore who has been banged up most of the year, just a tough SOB.  So WHAT!  We spent x $ on Palmer.  It didn’t work.  Move on.  I’m pleasantly surprised on Coleman.

 

Give me BTJ, and let Leonard fix the defense.  I know much if it sucked, but there were some sparks.  Mainly Rousseau, Walker, and CJGJ last week.

 

so mea culpa. KJ.  I can admit when I’m wrong.