Trade for BTJ?

[BillsVet]

3 hours ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

Let’s see how the next few games go regrading production and injury. Right now Moore is everything we hoped for and feels like the difference maker this offense has been lacking since Diggs left. 

 

Palmer and Coleman combined have 10 catches on 14 targets for 178  yards in 3 games.  As in, their two other boundary receivers playing with Moore and Kincaid combined are averaging about 30 receiving yards a game.  That's your depth...and it's not enough especially considering who the QB is and their season expectations.   

[Sierra Foothills]

Just now, BillsVet said:

Palmer and Coleman combined have 10 catches on 14 targets for 178  yards in 3 games.  As in, their two other boundary receivers playing with Moore and Kincaid combined are averaging about 30 receiving yards a game.  That's your depth...and it's not enough especially considering who the QB is and their season expectations.   

 

Part of that is the league-wide trend (the Bills were at the forefront) towards using multiple TEs.

 

Snap counts so far amongst Bills WRs and TEs (198 offensive snaps thru week 3):

 

Knox  141

Kincaid  135

Coleman 116

Shakir  115

Moore  109

Hawes  87

Palmer  67

Latu  13

Dortch  9

 

Clearly they like what Coleman is bringing to the offense.

 

[iwishitwerecolder]

I’d rather marv tbh

[NORWOODS FOOT]

1 hour ago, Sojourner said:

Like @Kirby Jackson suggested it’s probably 3 first to begin with. I would be on board with that. This roster for the most part is locked up for the next few seasons and could continue to improve. There’s some upgrades needed but that is the same with every team. I don’t see the shape of it being needing exceptional amounts. 
 

Honestly, if we are playing GM I entertain 2 firsts and a second from the 2027 draft. Depending on where they land come the end of the year. Where we are probably going, 3 firsts is where it’s at. And as much of a price that may be, landing a generational guy like you said for the tail end of his prime should be a no brainer. Very unlikely but would be sensational for Josh and the team. 

I think I misread the post: I thought 2 firsts and change. 3 is steeper, but I think I would still do it as well. I am typically against paying such a heavy price, but Jeremiah Smith is, quite frankly, one of the most talented / highest floor draft prospects I’ve ever seen. Maybe the highest. Barring catastrophic injury, he WILL NOT fail. Working with Josh for the next 5-10 years would be a football fan’s treat beyond description. 

 

[BuffBillsForLife]

MHJ has effort issues and BTJ has drop issues, but I would take a flier on either one for a mid round pick in a heartbeat. Moore and Coleman are already gimpy and it's only week 4, a mid round pick on a talented reclaimation project is better than drafting a guy who might not even make the team.

[BobbyC81]

7 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

If a top 2-3 team in the AFC is willing to trade him to us something is wrong.  Or we gave up way too much. 
 

 

You want a WR - go get MHJ

Hey, OJB is getting released by the Giants.  😏

[Alphadawg7]

3 hours ago, Buffalo03 said:

I know what he did his rookie year. Anyone who has watched him play is still clamoring for him because of what he did his rookie year. And his rookie year, he looked like the next big up and coming WR. I still think it's worth a flyer

 

Actually he didn't do as much as people think he did his rookie year.  Yes, he had a stretch on the back end of the season where he had a handful of games where big plays padded his stats.  If you take out those handful of plays, the rest of the numbers actually are not that impressive and are not very efficient.  Once teams realized how one dimensional he was and took the splash play away, he fell off a cliff.  

Thanks to fantasy football (something I myself love) people just see stats and not context anymore.  Yes a handful of big plays make his stats look good as a rookie, but the film tells another story outside those handful of plays.  And teams easily schemed him out to practical irrelvancy and unhearalded guys and journeyman WR's have leap frogged him and made him disappear almost entirely.

I am not against him coming here...and I am not saying he still doesn't have potential.  But, the tape is not good on him or MHJ and the stat line of his rookie year misleads people away from what the tape was showing that opposing teams used to make him dissappear.

Edited October 1 by Alphadawg7

[machine gun kelly]

Before the season, I would’ve been in favor, and hate saying this, but Coleman and Palmer have shown up.  BTJ would be a luxury we may not need.

 

We need our draft picks for bolstering this 3-4 defense.  We’re coming together, but more 3-4 style players will make Leonard’s defense even better.

[BeyondTheProcess]

13 hours ago, agilen said:

He's not getting snaps because they are running more 12 personnel....we run a ton of 13 personnel! He'd never see the field, this wouldn't be interesting unless Moore or Shakir are injured.

Exactly.   The league has changed.   Front 7's are smaller and teams, led by the Bills, are rolling with 13 personnel and running the ball against the smaller fronts.  Not sure we will see many 300+ passing games this year.  Some.   But not like in the past.   As long as Beane can maintain the scatter of WR/TE talent he has now, we should be fine.   

 

More concerned that the new D with all the misfit parts (Benford, Hairston, et al) will continue to get lit up all season.   

[Einstein]

9 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

If you believe Josh Allen he did not throw that 

 

I don’t.

 

Allen has a history of refusing to put the blame on anything other than himself. Thats what Allen always does. Int after it hits a receivers hands (tip)? Still says its his fault. He takes the blame for everything, whether it was actually his fault or not.

 

So when it comes down to believing the player who always takes the blame, or believing the coach who has been an open book, i’m believing the coach.

[Kirby Jackson]

1 hour ago, machine gun kelly said:

Before the season, I would’ve been in favor, and hate saying this, but Coleman and Palmer have shown up.  BTJ would be a luxury we may not need.

 

We need our draft picks for bolstering this 3-4 defense.  We’re coming together, but more 3-4 style players will make Leonard’s defense even better.

I mean, Palmer and Coleman have contributed. Still, they are on pace to combine for 56 catches and 1,008 yards. Palmer is gone no matter what after this year. Coleman is under contract for 1 more. I don’t agree that those guys are blocking anybody. The Bills have, and had, a starting WR spot available. The guy to play opposite Moore long-term is not on the roster unless it’s Bell. 
 

Now, are BTJ or MHJ the guys to solve it? Who knows. What’s the cost? I’d pay more for Harrison than Thomas but nothing crazy at this point. A day 3 pick for Thomas would be my limit. Is it Skyler Bell if not them? Can he be the guys opposite Moore for the next few years? Is it someone else via trade or in the draft next year?
 

Those are all questions that need to be answered. WRs are incredibly expensive. I’m having a really, really difficult time seeing the downside if the price is right. You would have a chance to hit home run and, at worst, you’re where you are now. At best, you’re the greatest offense ever. 

Edited October 1 by Kirby Jackson

[Coach Tuesday]

He is soft.

[Thurman#1]

14 hours ago, Einstein said:

I have been advocating for this move since last trade deadline.

 

We are one DJ Moore injury away from being in the same position as we were last year.

 

 

No.

 

Last year Kincaid was still dealing with the knee, Keon was playing poorly, and Josh Palmer also was injured and playing through it. Contrarily, Shavers was healthy through most of the year last year, but not this year, and we brought in Cooks for the last few games.

 

A healthy Kincaid leaves us in much better position and Palmer healthy also helps. Even without Moore,we're still significantly better than we were most of the year last year and still maybe a bit better than we were with Cooks.

 

Wouldn't mind getting either of these guys ... if it's cheap. I don't see us getting Harrison cheap. IMHO neither of them is going to be a difference maker, though there's certainly a reasonable chance I'd be wrong about that. I thought Harrison was going to be sensational, as I guess did everyone else.

Edited October 1 by Thurman#1

[Jimmy Harris 69]

Unless the Bills suffered significant injuries at the receiver position I could see no scenario where BTJ would come here. Acclimating a new player mid season is no easy thing. So even if you pick up the guy, it might take 6 weeks for him to pick the the terminology and adjust to the QB. Finally, here is a guy who can’t even succeed under Offensive Evis Liam Cohen. He clearly has problems. Why would we want them? So far he has had one productive season. I’m sure the Jags hope someone will pay for their mistake, it won’t be the Buffalo who pays the bill.

Edited October 1 by Jimmy Harris 69

[Thurman#1]

7 hours ago, NORWOODS FOOT said:

I think I misread the post: I thought 2 firsts and change. 3 is steeper, but I think I would still do it as well. I am typically against paying such a heavy price, but Jeremiah Smith is, quite frankly, one of the most talented / highest floor draft prospects I’ve ever seen. Maybe the highest. Barring catastrophic injury, he WILL NOT fail. Working with Josh for the next 5-10 years would be a football fan’s treat beyond description. 

 

 

 

Smart teams don't trade that much value away for a non-QB.

 

"WILL NOT fail," you say? People said much the same things about guys like Marvin Harrison Junior, Corey Davis, Justin Blackmon ... and on and on. Sometimes guys who will not fail, they fail. That's life and the draft.

 

Some top three WR picks: Johnny Lam Jones, Irving Friar (a damn good receiver after his first six years or so, but he was a #1 overall and he didn't live up to that), Keyshawn Johnson (very good, but worth it for an overall #1?), Charles Rogers (injured and out very early), Braylon Edwards, and Travis Hunter. I did not know whether to put Hunter in there, but he's already suffered an injury. 

 

If you think he's the best pick when you're drafting in the top three, pick him. Don't trade up and give away a ton of pick value to get up high enough to make that pick.

 

Also, you said that, "barring catastrophic injury, he WILL NOT fail." Well, catastrophic injuries happen sometimes.

Edited October 1 by Thurman#1

[SCBills]

My only real concern on this Offense is what happens if we lose DJ Moore, and the only offset to that is to have another DJ Moore.. which BTJ and MH are not. 
 

The Rams, who run a similar elite level Offense to us, lose Puka for a few games and Adams goes berserk.

 

Even then, they’re sitting at 1-2 right now. 
 

It’s clear what having a true WR1 means to an Offense.  We wanted to pretend it doesn’t matter, but it does.

 

If somehow Justin Jefferson becomes available, I’d give up whatever they want to get him here, but taking flyers on the guys mentioned in this thread, meh.. we have those guys in Keon and Palmer.  We have potential in Bell.  
 

My hot take, and I’m not sure what the cap ramifications are.. I’d make Shakir available in a trade. 

[Kirby Jackson]

Just now, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Smart teams don't trade that much value away for a non-QB.

 

"WILL NOT fail," you say? People said much the same things about guys like Marvin Harrison Junior, Corey Davis, Justin Blackmon ... and on and on. Sometimes guys who will not fail, they fail. That's life and the draft.

 

Some top three WR picks: Johnny Lam Jones, Irving Friar (a damn good receiver after his first six years or so, but he was a #1 overall and he didn't live up to that), Keyshawn Johnson (very good, but worth it for an overall #1?), Charles Rogers (injured and out very early), Braylon Edwards, and Travis Hunter. I did not know whether to put Hunter in there, but he's already suffered an injury. 

 

If you think he's the best pick when you're drafting in the top three, pick him. Don't trade up and give away a ton of pick value to get up high enough to make that pick.

 

Also, you said that, "barring catastrophic injury, he WILL NOT fail." Well, catastrophic injuries happen sometimes.

Smith is cleaner than all of them. Charles Davis, draft expert, said yesterday that he will be the highest graded WR ever. He called him a combination of Larry Fitzgerald, Julio Jones and Randy Moss. He’s literally, the greatest WR prospect ever. He’s one of the 5-10 best WRs in the world today. 

 

In terms of, “smart teams don’t do that,” that’s changing. Top pass rushers and WRs no longer hit free agency. Their cost is now $40M+ a year. When teams have top guys there, they keep them for their whole career. They now look like QBs. The world has changed. Teams didn’t used to make deals like that, but we are seeing them now because you can’t get an elite talent otherwise.
 

The positional value of pass rushers and WRs, is still below QB, but teams lock them in like they have QBs. That didn’t used to be a thing but over the last 5-10 years it became one. You now pay $12M a year for a Josh Palmer, $18M a year for Romeo Doubs or $30M a year for an Alec Pierce. You pay $16M a year for Kwity Paye or $28M a year for a washed Trey Hendrickson. You have to act differently now at those 2 areas to secure talent. 

[vtnatefootball11]

9 hours ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

Part of that is the league-wide trend (the Bills were at the forefront) towards using multiple TEs.

 

Snap counts so far amongst Bills WRs and TEs (198 offensive snaps thru week 3):

 

Knox  141

Kincaid  135

Coleman 116

Shakir  115

Moore  109

Hawes  87

Palmer  67

Latu  13

Dortch  9

 

Clearly they like what Coleman is bringing to the offense.

 

 

Or clearly Coleman is the best option in an otherwise depressing group of boundary receivers outside of Moore. I liked Coleman coming out too, but he hasn't panned out, plain and simple. Our wide receiver room is still on the weaker end, even with Moore. And without Moore it would be one of the worst in the league. Shakir is solid but is an average NFL starting slot receiver. Moore is really more of a high end WR2/low end WR1. BTJ stretching the field opposite Moore would be a significant upgrade over Coleman, purely from a defensive attention standpoint. And you cannot ignore what BTJ did his rookier year, there is talent there and proven production there at the NFL level the Coleman may never reach. He is worth a mid round pick. Not only for this year, but his potential overall still under a rookier contract. What do we have to lose? 

Edited October 1 by vtnatefootball11

[BillsVet]

9 hours ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

Part of that is the league-wide trend (the Bills were at the forefront) towards using multiple TEs.

 

Snap counts so far amongst Bills WRs and TEs (198 offensive snaps thru week 3):

 

Knox  141

Kincaid  135

Coleman 116

Shakir  115

Moore  109

Hawes  87

Palmer  67

Latu  13

Dortch  9

 

Clearly they like what Coleman is bringing to the offense.

 

 

We can do data analysis all day long and get nowhere.  I still see their WR depth after Moore as insufficient particularly on the boundary.  I like that they're running it well and there's Moore and Kincaid, but a 3rd quality receiver is not on this roster. 

 

@Kirby Jackson makes the point about their being a spot still open and I agree.  There's nothing in the pipeline beyond a RD4 pick who has no regular season snaps as of yet.  I don't know if either of the WR's discussed are worthy, but there's a weakness there on offense.  

 

[Kirby Jackson]

10 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

We can do data analysis all day long and get nowhere.  I still see their WR depth after Moore as insufficient particularly on the boundary.  I like that they're running it well and there's Moore and Kincaid, but a 3rd quality receiver is not on this roster. 

 

@Kirby Jackson makes the point about their being a spot still open and I agree.  There's nothing in the pipeline beyond a RD4 pick who has no regular season snaps as of yet.  I don't know if either of the WR's discussed are worthy, but there's a weakness there on offense.  

 

I think the bolded is the point. How many starting spots are available on this roster now? How many in 2027? Where are the Bills vulnerable? They have 9 picks in 2027 (2 5ths and 2 7ths). How should they allocate those 9 picks? What are the biggest needs?

 

You have to look at the roster/cap now, AND moving forward. Today, there’s a starting spot opposite Moore. There’s potentially a starting spot on the DL (spot currently filled with Jackson/Sanders/whomever). There’s potentially a LB spot. You’re also a boundary corner short with the Benford injury.

 

Next year, you need to find the LT of the future. I don’t believe it is Bowry. I don’t believe the guy is on the roster. You will need to find Anderson’s replacement. That DL spot will either be grabbed by a young guy on the roster or you’ll need to replace it. You may need to replace CJGJ if he leaves in FA. Is that Kilgore or Hancock? Maybe. Palmer walks and Keon enters the last year of his deal. Neither has proven worthy of a starting spot. You have that spot to fill. It COULD be Bell but like Jackson/Sanders that remains to be seen. You probably should look for a young, inexpensive QB (even if you keep Kyle Allen around because Josh wants him here). You probably need a kicker. 
 

You have 9 picks, plus whatever cap space to fill those holes. A starting boundary WR, is still one of the biggest holes on the team. It is one of the most expensive positions to fill and it is currently manned by one of the worst starters on the team. Again, the offense has been great for the most part. That doesn’t mean that this is their ceiling. Since trading for Moore you aren’t as desperate as you were. You aren’t “all set” there either (unless Bell emerges as a quality starter). 

Edited October 1 by Kirby Jackson