A Thursday Night Points Fest? Maybe Not

[corta765]

The Bills and Lions both had bonzo games week 1 with each team scoring over 30 pts. The Bills defense is a work in progress as parts come together, while the Lions have more injury issues especially missing their top safeties for this game in Buffalo. So understandably their is a lot of hype heading into this game that this could be a shootout especially given the nature of both teams and the offenses they are running with.

 

But I ran some interesting data and found the following:

• In 2025 the average score of a Thursday Night Game was 24.1 pts to 19.3 good for about 43.4 total points scored a game
• The last four years the average points scored in the first four Thursday Night Games was 43.275 total points scored a game. The 2022 week 2 Thursday night matchup between the Eagles and Vikings was the highest scoring with 62 points as Philly narrowing won 34-28.
• Last year the first four Thursday Night Games had just one break 50 points which ironically was the Bills 31 Dolphins 21 victory in week 3.
• The Bills at home have only played two Thursday Night Games at home since 2020  which they won 24-18 over the Bucs in 2023 and last years win over Miami. That produced an average of 47 total points per game.
• The Bills in 8 total Thursday Night Games since 2020 have averaged 27.38 ppg scored and total of 47.38 total combined points in the game played. The highest scoring of those games was actually against Detroit on Thanksgiving in 2022 when the Bills won 28-25 over the Lions and the lowest scoring was Bills win in 2022 24-10 over New England.

 

Conversely though Thursday is actually the highest scoring night of the NFL week with an average total points scored around 45.7. This isn't necessarily surprising as the NFL has been working for better matchups on Thursday for a while and with teams banged up it usually favors scoring. Additionally the Bills themselves play in higher scoring games (not surprisingly) then the average team on TNF. So there absolutely is reason to believe points will be scored on Thursday, but there is a better shot the game is 28-21 or 24-23 then 37-30 or some of the higher predictions that have been posted.

Edited September 15 by corta765

[mushypeaches]

[BuffaloBillyG]

I think (no data to back me up, just thought process) that The Bills and Lions will both try and run the ball a lot. Shorten the game a bit. I think Detroit will notice how many long drives we gave up in the opener. I see them running with Gibbs and a lot of "dink and dunk" by Goff. On our side, I think we use Cook a fair amount after a lighter than usual carry load from him in week 1. I think Allen uses his legs and we see some end around. Shorter passes with the occasional deep look if Moore has a favorable matchup. Both teams are gonna have to use the offense to help their defense. 

[Chaos]

Just now, BuffaloBillyG said:

Both teams are gonna have to use the offense to help their defense. 

If the Bill's are going to win a championship, the defense needs to help the defense. The defense's job is to get off the field.  The offense's job is to score points. Each side needs to do their job.  We just spent several years watching the offense focus on "helping the defense" and then forget to score points, or take field goals, instead of TDs.    

[Scott7975]

We also have this...

 

The highest-scoring Week 1 in NFL history (during the Super Bowl era) is tied at an average of 49.4 combined points per game (791 total points), achieved in both 2012 and 2026. 

 

Key facts about these historic opening weeks:

 

The Record Tie: The NFL Official Website reported that the 2026 opening slate matched the 791-point record originally set in 2012 after the Chiefs-Broncos Monday night finale brought the 2026 weekly average to 49.4 PPG. 

 

Historic Sunday: Sunday of Week 1 in 2026 set a standalone record as the highest-scoring Week 1 Sunday ever, with 13 games combining for 693 points—an astonishing 53.3 points per game average. 

 

Record Shootout: The Chicago Bears' 59–37 win over the Carolina Panthers featured 96 combined points, setting the all-time record for the highest-scoring Week 1 game in NFL history.

 

 

I think I was the first to say in one of the threads something like "everyone is expecting a shootout so watch the game be something like 20-16" or something along those lines. I still expect a high scoring game. On one hand, Thursday games are usually bad because players dont even have time to heal, much less prepare for another opponent. On the other, we have two high scoring offenses with not so great playing defenses right now. Also, neither team has much tape on this years teams. Just one weeks worth.

 

It could go either way.

[Gregg]

I do like the fact that the Lions are the road team, coming here on a short week while just having played 5 quarters of football. That has to help the Bills. 

[BuffaloBillyG]

37 minutes ago, Chaos said:

If the Bill's are going to win a championship, the defense needs to help the defense. The defense's job is to get off the field.  The offense's job is to score points. Each side needs to do their job.  We just spent several years watching the offense focus on "helping the defense" and then forget to score points, or take field goals, instead of TDs.    

We aren't winning a championship in the second week of the season. 

 

We have to realize what team we are and adjust. For THIS week against THIS opponent, yeah, we need to slow them down. We do have Josh Allen. But they have a whole arsenal of weapons. We will not win a shootout in this game IMO. 

 

As far as the bolded, thanks for the job descriptions. However, in the real world teams often need to make up for shortcomings of the other side of the ball. In this game, it's the smart play. 

[Ayjent]

16 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

We aren't winning a championship in the second week of the season. 

 

We have to realize what team we are and adjust. For THIS week against THIS opponent, yeah, we need to slow them down. We do have Josh Allen. But they have a whole arsenal of weapons. We will not win a shootout in this game IMO. 

 

As far as the bolded, thanks for the job descriptions. However, in the real world teams often need to make up for shortcomings of the other side of the ball. In this game, it's the smart play. 

The Bills can absolutely win a shootout with the Lions (or really anyone) and I would think the Lions would be the ones looking to avoid a shootout tbh, bc this game could get away from them quickly if they happen to get behind by a couple of scores early and get one dimensional.  That takes Gibbs, who is arguably their best player on offense, out of the mix to some degree.  Goff is one of the most on/off QBs based on the pressure he feels - he can be amazing if he is clean, but he can become really shaky when he feels pressure.  So I would think they want to avoid a situation where that is what they have to live and die with on Offense, but they can be dangerous and they have plenty of weapons.  I would guess that they are going to try to test Benford to see if he can handle St. Brown.  I can see Hairston almost exclusively locked on Willams to match his speed.

[colin]

great stats and snap shot OP!

 

i think longer drives and lower scoring for both teams than last week is roughly inevitable.  both teams have great run games and terrible defensive performances, both teams will be wary of being passed on.

 

my three predictions for this game:

 

1  Allen is a force in prime time games.  his production and big plays in these games is awe inspiring.  we've had a couple turkeys, but they always seem to come with other drama.  generally alle is a monster.  i expect him to do basically what he does

 

2.  The secondary will make fixes.  there were some obvious missed assignments, bad play, and mental errors vs houston.  i think with only a short week for them to prepare detroit will have more trouble solving the bills d than the texans did.

 

3.  A bills win!!  at home, hope opener of this new stadium, roster is healthy, positive mo from the houston win, green light football and young fresh legs carry us past the finish line.

[BuffaloBillyG]

16 minutes ago, Ayjent said:

The Bills can absolutely win a shootout with the Lions (or really anyone) and I would think the Lions would be the ones looking to avoid a shootout tbh, bc this game could get away from them quickly if they happen to get behind by a couple of scores early and get one dimensional.  That takes Gibbs, who is arguably their best player on offense, out of the mix to some degree.  Goff is one of the most on/off QBs based on the pressure he feels - he can be amazing if he is clean, but he can become really shaky when he feels pressure.  So I would think they want to avoid a situation where that is what they have to live and die with on Offense, but they can be dangerous and they have plenty of weapons.  I would guess that they are going to try to test Benford to see if he can handle St. Brown.  I can see Hairston almost exclusively locked on Willams to match his speed.

I will be interested to see how many snaps Benford is actually covering St. Brown. St. Brown takes a lot of snaps in the slot and Benford is normally a boundary corner. Agree, Hairston on Williams should be fun to watch. 

 

I can also see a plan where Benford is on Williams with help over top. Alford is going to have to step up and cover St. Brown a ton IMO. 

Edited September 16 by BuffaloBillyG

[HOUSE]

If we can use Keon Coleman more

we can expect less ..

[SF Bills Fan]

I say take the over.  there will be alot of scoring. 

[Rubes]

You want stats? Here are some stats. Pressure Goff.

 

 

[ChevyVanMiller]

5 minutes ago, Rubes said:

You want stats? Here are some stats. Pressure Goff.

 

 

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

I hate these TNF games. They are crap fests. Sloppy, lots of injuries. Just need to survive.

[JP51]

Really tough opponent, at home in the opening game of your new home.  Dont see the Bills taking the Lions for granted in any situation they are an excellent team. I have no idea if they win, but I feel like we can expect them to feel pressure to win the first game at the stadium...  how they handle that pressure will be important.  I do see a lot of points, not sure it will be a point fest.. I would put the over under at 49. 

Edited September 16 by JP51

[mannc]

19 hours ago, corta765 said:

 

 

Conversely though Thursday is actually the highest scoring night of the NFL week with an average total points scored around 45.7. 

So, in other words, all the stats you cite in the first part of your post really mean nothing.  Come on, man…there is literally nothing that makes Thursday night games less likely to be high-scoring.

22 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

I hate these TNF games. They are crap fests. Sloppy, lots of injuries. Just need to survive.

I don’t know why people always say this. It’s simply not true, especially the early-season Thursday night games, like this one. And the numbers certainly do not support the idea that there are more injuries in Thursday night games.  

Why do ostensible football fans hate having more football to watch on TV?

[US Egg]

Okay then, who’s willing to bet the under? 

[That's No Moon]

1 minute ago, US Egg said:

Okay then, who’s willing to bet the under? 

What's the number?

[US Egg]

3 minutes ago, That's No Moon said:

What's the number?

Check with your betting service.