This season success hinges on fixing the Run Defense

[ganesh]

Here is the run defense metrics from 2025 season.   If Jim's defense can improve this to a middle of pack then the pass rushers can get those 3rd and longs.   

 

Metric	2025 Performance	2026 Schematic Goal
Yards Allowed Per Carry	5.14 yards (30th in NFL)	Limit explosive gains via a new 5-man spacing front
Rushing Yards per Game	136.2 (28th in NFL)	Force opponents into obvious passing downs to utilize the pass rush.
Run Defense DVOA	30th in NFL	Improve down-todown consistency through a healthier linebacker room
Explosive Runs Allowed	65 runs of 10+ yards (2nd worst)

 

Edited September 8 by ganesh

[BuffaloBillyG]

Just now, ganesh said:

Here is the run defense metrics from 2025 season

 

Metric	2025 Performance
Yards Allowed Per Carry	5.14 yards (30th in NFL)	Limit explosive gains via a new 5-man spacing front
Rushing Yards per Game	136.2 (28th in NFL)	Force opponents into obvious passing downs to utilize the pass rush.
Run Defense DVOA	30th in NFL	Improve down-todown consistency through a healthier linebacker room
Explosive Runs Allowed	65 runs of 10+ yards (2nd worst)

Metric2025 Performance2026 Schematic Goal

.14 yards (30th in NFL)Limit explosive gains via a new 5-man spacing front.

Rushing Yards Per Game136.2 yards (28th in NFL)Force opponents into obvious passing downs to utilize the pass rush.

Run Defense DVOA30th in NFLImprove down-to-down consistency through a healthier linebacker room.

Explosive Runs Allowed65 runs of 10+ yards (2nd worst)

Agree that stopping the run is very important this year. It's definitely up there with things like getting off the field on 3rd and long. Having someone take control of the WR2 spot. Health, especially in key spots. Bass becoming competent kicking the ball. 

[nuklz2594]

tackle better

[Thrivefourfive]

Stopping the run should happen if we’re more aggressive on offensive, and we don’t play down to our competition. The schedule is tough but when we’re up by a substantial margin, forcing the opponent into throwing the rest of the game, we’ll be better statistically. 
 

Forcing turnovers is nice, but it can’t become thee identity like it was a couple years ago. Turnovers should happen as a product of the scheme. That’d be nice. 

[Chandler#81]

We definitely sucked on Defense last season. It can’t get much worse while we still won enough games and made it OT in the Divisional Round. I don’t anticipate much of a falloff from the Offense so ANY  improvement on Defense should get us to the Conference title game. 

[Rigotz]

It's a completely different defense. Seems a little reductive to just say "we need to stop the run better."

 

With the Nickel scheme featuring a lot of zone match, we were inviting teams to run. The benefit of this was having better passing looks, which we saw reflected in significantly better passing DVOA, yards per pass, explosive pass players, etc. 

 

If we just focused on fixing the run, the passing game would suffer. That's not the conversation we need to have here.

 

Here's what we actually need:

- Better pressure on the QB via D-Line, ideally through scheme multiplicity. 

- Better production as a defense on third and long (stops and INTs).

- Better tackling.

- More consistent run defense by linebackers playing their gaps appropriately and D-Line maintaining their blocks.

 

*EDIT: I'm going to throw one in that we simply needed to get younger and more talented. Seems like we did that as well. 

Edited September 8 by Rigotz

[billsfan89]

To me the run defense just needs to be OK, what really I think is going to determine the success of the defense is the pass rush. Can this new defense get to the QB? I think what was often McD's biggest issue was not only poor run defense but also inconsistent pass rush. McD's pass rush was heavily D-line reliant and it resulted in a defense that couldn't generate pressure or attack a offense if the D-line was not winning consistently. If the run defense can be respectable and the pass rush gets to the QB more consistently then I think you got yourself a stew going. 

[JMM]

I'll be happy if for the first time in years we don't have a offense at 3rd and 12 and still fully expect them to convert...😔

[Gregg]

Run defense and getting pressure on the QB with their front four will go a long way towards improving their Super Bowl chances. Two things the Bills never did really well with McDermott. 

[Ayjent]

The thing is the Bills D wasn't particularly good against the pass either, teams just knew it was better to run to keep the Bills offense from getting in a rhythm or from taking it over.  That's why you had high conversion rates on 3rd and long.  Too frequently, even if the run D did its job the pass defense wasn't there to seal the deal.  IMO there were just too many ways to attack the D, and it seemed like this was a trend of McD's defense that got worse over his tenure as head coach and as someone who had their hands all over any D that the Bills utilized.  Sure the Bills had an incredible tandem of Poyer and Hyde in their best years, but more often than not the D was susceptible to teams that could effectively run the ball, and had trouble making stops in the passing games in the biggest moments.  The turnovers were the saving grace of the D, and the one thing that you can say was a good attribute about the D was that it was usually good at creating turnovers, and the Bills clearly had some of the right ingredients to be on the plus side of the turnover margin, which was deliberate and not random (as some ridiculous pundits like Barnwell contend with junk math concepts).

[ganesh]

The question to ask is -  IN this defense, who is going to stop the run.  Last season it was Daquan Jones...He is not with the team anymore.   Can a front-3 of Oliver, Walker and Gaines be the answer ? 

[Ayjent]

Just now, ganesh said:

The question to ask is -  IN this defense, who is going to stop the run.  Last season it was Daquan Jones...He is not with the team anymore.   Can a front-3 of Oliver, Walker and Gaines be the answer ? 

It's a valid question, but I think schematically it may allow for the DL to be more attacking rather than requiring rigid discipline, which I'm sure will have pros and cons.  They will be theoretically bigger in the front 7 with bigger Outside LBs and more bodies inside when they line up with 3 DL 2 OLBs/DEs and 2 ILBs with more free space for the ILBs to operate.  The pass rush is still not imposing IMO, but it should be better, and I think we will see less obvious blitzing.

[Buffalo Boy]

23 minutes ago, JMM said:

I'll be happy if for the first time in years we don't have a offense at 3rd and 12 and still fully expect them to convert...😔

   Every single one of those equalled one less possesion for Josh and Co. 
   Improving this by 33% would be HUGE. 
   
 

[billsfan714]

Two keys to me, besides obviously fixing the run defense we also must improve the 3rd down defense, get off the field and get Josh the ball back.  We sure as hell didn't see any improvement on 3rd down defense even though it was a point of emphasis in camp last year.  Not being able to stop and run and being 25th in the league on 3rd down defense isn't going to bring you a championship, even a conference championship.

Edited September 8 by billsfan714

[Ralonzo]

1 hour ago, nuklz2594 said:

tackle better

That has not been the scheme fit of the defense for years now. Remember the 'Maine? "His length defends the short passing game in the middle of the field" Nevermind that he was on roller skates vs the run.

 

KOR is the first LB drafted for the new scheme, the rest are the holdovers that were fits for the old system - save for Dorian who could never nail down a full-time starting job in the old system due to coverage limitations, and Joe who I'm still waiting for a coverage rep in any setting.

 

Success vs the run is going to ultimately come down to the LB's and either the holdovers will need to perform better, or their replacements will.

[Bruffalo]

I think scoring more points than the other team is the real factor that our success hinges on. Everything else is secondary. 

 

The run defense was bad, but what really killed us was our inability to get off the field on 3rd and long. 

The number of times the opposing team would extend drives after we would get them into a 3rd and 10+ was infuriating. 

[Captain Murica]

It would be nice just to stop a third and long… But not getting steamrolled in the run would be nice as well.

 

[Ayjent]

2 hours ago, Ralonzo said:

That has not been the scheme fit of the defense for years now. Remember the 'Maine? "His length defends the short passing game in the middle of the field" Nevermind that he was on roller skates vs the run.

 

KOR is the first LB drafted for the new scheme, the rest are the holdovers that were fits for the old system - save for Dorian who could never nail down a full-time starting job in the old system due to coverage limitations, and Joe who I'm still waiting for a coverage rep in any setting.

 

Success vs the run is going to ultimately come down to the LB's and either the holdovers will need to perform better, or their replacements will.

Yeah it was tough to watch the players either not be able to get where they needed to be or when they were it still didn't matter.  I don't mean to crap on McD because I really appreciate what he brought to the Bills in terms of success, but he was not effective in scheming a defense and it was not trending in the right direction even with massive investments.  I'll wait to pass judgment on the holdovers, but I do think that there is a belief with the coaches that these holdovers are good enough to be really effective.  They will have plenty of tests out of the gate.

[henry jones]

Are there any metrics on 3rd down and more than 10 to go?  We had to be close to the bottom in that one too!!

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

10 minutes ago, henry jones said:

Are there any metrics on 3rd down and more than 10 to go?  We had to be close to the bottom in that one too!!

 

I don't know about ranking, and these splits most likely don't include playoffs.  But they were shockingly good stats imo, the rushing YPC averages do stick out though 😄

 

3rd down and 10+ - Opposing teams had a QB rating of 47 (Cooper Rush/Max Brosmer) - 28/55 for 333, 3 INTs, and 3 sacks.  12 conversions.  9 carries for 37 yards and 1 first down.  

3rd down and 7-9 - Opposing teams had a QB rating of 77.7 (2025 Joe Flacco) - 16/28 for 208 1 td, 1 int, and 3 sacks.  10 conversions.  9 carries for 84 yards and 4 first downs (this is pretty notably bad from how i read it with a 9.3 YPC).  

 

Even 2nd down was pretty good

 

2nd and 10+ - Opposing teams had a QB rating of 58.7(Kenny Pickett) - 28/60 for 1 td 1 int 4 sacks.  8 conversions.  38/188 and 4 1sts.