AFC Rankings Preseason

[corta765]

I have done this for a few years now where I rank the AFC with some humor, some honestly, and probably some bad opinions. I typically do this every 3-4 weeks (quarter or so) of the Season so this is my sole one for the preseason. Argue, agree, tell me I have no brain cells lets go:

 

Orange Crush

Denver Broncos- Top to bottom the most complete roster of the AFC and truthfully the team that should’ve made the super bowl in the AFC if not for a broken ankle to Bo Nix. Bo may come back a little on his play after a good year with many 4th quarter heroics, but they properly added at WR with Waddle. They had a high amount of one score wins in 2025 so their record may comeback 1-3 games in W column but still a complete team across the board that no other AFC matches top to bottom..

 

MVP QB, New Coach, Sky-high Expectations… Good Luck

Buffalo Bills & Baltimore Ravens- Same storyline for each team as the sky is the limit as is the expectations. Will Brady with a different vision on offense and defense with Jim get the Bills over the hump so it isn’t all on Josh come playoff time? Can Minter help the Ravens defense return to form and get the Ravens over the hump with Lamar while also not blowing big leads yearly? Not a lot to say because the expectations are at max for both teams and QB, SUPER BOWL OR BUST

 

Everyone’s Favorite Darkhorse AFC Champ

Houston Texans- I am myself a big Texas believer, so much hinges on that offense being decently competent and more importantly the offensive line blocking for Stroud to not die and the RBs to run. Still this probably is the scariest team in the AFC simply because the defense will keep them in every game where the offense just needs to be OK.

 

The Skeptics Exist But These Are Good Teams On Paper

New England Patriots- Year 3 for the Maye-Flower and even with some regression and a tougher schedule he still should help carry the Pats. The big question is more how the remainder of the roster does and when attrition hits how they handle it.

Jacksonville Jaguars- Their numbers from the Meyers trade on were fantastic on offense, but there is more there then that. The defense was top 10 in epa, the offense has a plethora of WRs, the coaching is quite good, and the play in a favorable division besides HOU. Can they have back to back winning seasons for the first time in two decades.

 

Reasons To Buy & Reasons To Be Wary

Los Angeles Chargers- So they get back their starting offensive line men who were out all year, McDaniel feels like a step above Roman, they have made the playoffs three of the last four years winning 11 games the last two with Harbaugh. Yet why does it feel like we’ve been waiting for a bigger breakthrough that never happens and it is just excuses for the quarterback when the brass numbers show he ain’t doing it. Oh and no one is discussing how good Minter was as DC for this team who just left.

Cincinnati Bengals- The defense looks improved on paper finally where Burrow is not having to score 40 pts a week which is good. Speaking of Burrow though he has started 35 games out of 51 the last three years. I do believe CIN puts it together enough to get back in the post season, but I get those who see another .500ish year.

Kansas City Chiefs- The laws of nature bounced back big time as the team which had every break go their way in 2024 had it go the opposite way in 2025. They actually were a 10 win team by advanced metrics, but this is not the 2021 team either. The offense should be a bit better, but the defense feels like a shell of its oldself. Still are you betting against Reid/Mahomes to miss back to back years

 

They Will Win 7 to 9 Games And Waste Everyone’s Time

Indianapolis Colts & Pittsburgh Steelers- Both teams were better off breaking the walls down to the studs for some true renovation. Instead the Steelers are playing Madden 2018 apparently and the Colts are gambling on Daniel Jones… to recover from an ACL and play the high level he showed for 8 games before injury. I look at both of these teams and remember what the drought felt like. One of them will be around the playoff picture come December and the other is going to be at 3-4 wins finally asking the hard questions they should’ve last off season or frankly for years prior.

 

The Rebuild Is On

Tennessee Titans- They are pluckier than people think and if Ward can take a step with the new WRs he has and better coaching they could be a sneaky wild card/in the hunt style team come December. That would be huge progress for them after the last bunch of years. Also Saleh is a very good defensive mind and that Jets defense tanked the moment he left. The pieces on the D could be fun for him.

 

Oakland sorry Vegas Raiders- The longer Mendoza sits the better it will help his development short term. If it isn’t until week 7-8 this could be one of those annoying teams come week 15-16 that are making games maddening against higher opponents that you’d expect a blow out. They still need a lot of talent, but this year is all about growing their kid at QB and giving hope to the future.

 

On To The 2027 Draft

NY Jets / Miami Dolphins- Jets will win 3-5 games blowing their draft position while the Dolphins could be historically bad on offense despite some nice pieces on defense. Yikes.

 

Whatever the Browns Are

Cleveland Browns- I hate this team. I have seen three year olds with a better plan for the day then whatever their doing here. They will win 3-4 games, the defense will do some things, and they will against make the wrong moves over and over and over. I feel for their fans but what is left to say anymore. Even when they had a halfway decent starter in Baker they ran him out and blew everything up for Watson. Their fans forever deserve better but I just don’t see it happening anytime soon. The front office makes the 49ers medical staff look competent by comparison.

 

Edited August 10 by corta765

[Rubes]

Nice write up. Always enjoy your takes.

 

[eball]

Good effort. I think the AFC will come down to Buffalo, Denver, and Jacksonville.

 

I'm on the opposite side with Houston; I think they are going to collapse under the weight of a very good defense trying to prop up a regressing QB. Very curious to see what Buffalo does to them in W1.

 

The Pats*** won't suddenly be terrible but it will be eye-opening (to some) how they stumble against a real schedule.

 

Baltimore feels like a foregone conclusion that they will disappoint. I think either Pittsburgh or Cinci could win that division.

 

I agree with you regarding the Chargers...what is going to suddenly "click" for them? I heard a report that McDaniel is trying to make Herbert an anticipatory thrower -- good luck with that at this stage of his career.

 

Indy is probably a little better than you're giving them credit for. I'm not a huge Danny Dimes fan but if he stays healthy they could be a factor in the South.

 

KC is a mystery to me. Does Mahomes get back to being Mahomes or has a downturn begun? Agree that the defense could be a liability.

 

Nobody else in the AFC matters.

 

[ChevyVanMiller]

I think you're pretty spot on (at least to the point anyone can predict at this stage of the year). Thanks for the analysis.

[No_Matter_What]

3 things

 

1.  Good read.

2. You are heavily overestimating the Broncos. Both Bills and Ravens are better teams. I think you are also underestimating the Chiefs.

3. Using bold on teams and / or tiers would heavily improve readability of your post

Edited August 10 by No_Matter_What

[corta765]

1 minute ago, No_Matter_What said:

3 things

 

1.  Good read.

2. You are heavily overestimating the Broncos. Both Bills and Ravens are better teams. I think you are also underestimating the Chiefs.

3. Using bold on teams and / or tiers would heavily improve readability of your post

1. Thank you

2. I think the Broncos have less holes than BAL/BUF even if those two have better QB play. I also think Payton is a better coach then Minter or Brady right now so it evens out alottt.

3. Fixing it now I had bolder a lot of stuff

[Doc Brown]

I think you might have four new division winners in the AFC with the Bills, Chiefs, Ravens, and Texans.  I think the Chiefs have a bounce back year and the Broncos take a step back.  The Broncos went 11-2 in one score games last year while the Chiefs went 1-9.  Plus, I think the Chiefs getting Bienemy in the building and Nagy out improves the offense.  Plus the addition of Walker.  Broncos have the better roster but the Chiefs have the way better QB with a chip on his shoulder.

[corta765]

47 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

I think the Chiefs have a bounce back year and the Broncos take a step back.  The Broncos went 11-2 in one score games last year while the Chiefs went 1-9.  Plus, I think the Chiefs getting Bienemy in the building and Nagy out improves the offense.  Plus the addition of Walker.  Broncos have the better roster but the Chiefs have the way better QB with a chip on his shoulder.

AFC West to me is how much better can Bo get to narrow the gap with Mahomes. If he can take a step, not even Maye level but just top 10 QB they can still win the division.

 

As I said with the chargers it’s prove it. Herbert has nice stats and nothing else. No individual awards, no team success, no major playoff moments or heck even a win.

[FLFan]

2 hours ago, eball said:

Good effort. I think the AFC will come down to Buffalo, Denver, and Jacksonville.

 

I'm on the opposite side with Houston; I think they are going to collapse under the weight of a very good defense trying to prop up a regressing QB. Very curious to see what Buffalo does to them in W1.

 

The Pats*** won't suddenly be terrible but it will be eye-opening (to some) how they stumble against a real schedule.

 

Baltimore feels like a foregone conclusion that they will disappoint. I think either Pittsburgh or Cinci could win that division.

 

I agree with you regarding the Chargers...what is going to suddenly "click" for them? I heard a report that McDaniel is trying to make Herbert an anticipatory thrower -- good luck with that at this stage of his career.

 

Indy is probably a little better than you're giving them credit for. I'm not a huge Danny Dimes fan but if he stays healthy they could be a factor in the South.

 

KC is a mystery to me. Does Mahomes get back to being Mahomes or has a downturn begun? Agree that the defense could be a liability.

 

Nobody else in the AFC matters.

 

Agree with your takes.  I would add that I do not see the optimism some have for the Patriots.  This looks like a 9/10 win team to me.  They will play “Vrable Ball”, hiding Maye’s deficiencies, but their OL is not that good, and neither is their defensive front 7 outside of Barmore.  The schedule catches up with them.

 

The Ravens live or die with Jackson, but in the end, he will let them down.  I think Mahomes has been on a downward trajectory for a couple of seasons now, even before the injury.  They are no longer the team to beat in the West.  Buffalo, Denver, and possibly Jacksonville are the teams to beat.  Maybe Cinci if their glass QB can survive their OL.  Houston? CJ Stroud sucks.  That is all.  

 

[BillytheKid]

The advanced stats that predict the teams to have the biggest regressions or progressions each year, no matter what players they added or lost and what coaches they added or lost have Denver and Chicago tied for the biggest regressions in the league. 
 

Same ones I used last year when I told everyone that Kansas City wasn’t going to make the playoffs a whole month before the season started. 
 

So I can tell you right now the Bears definitely won’t make the playoffs and Denver will be borderline. There is a reason the Broncos season win total is only 9.5. They will lose a lot more games this year. Broncos won’t be close to the top AFC team this year. 

[corta765]

44 minutes ago, BillytheKid said:

The advanced stats that predict the teams to have the biggest regressions or progressions each year, no matter what players they added or lost and what coaches they added or lost have Denver and Chicago tied for the biggest regressions in the league. 
 

Same ones I used last year when I told everyone that Kansas City wasn’t going to make the playoffs a whole month before the season started. 
 

So I can tell you right now the Bears definitely won’t make the playoffs and Denver will be borderline. There is a reason the Broncos season win total is only 9.5. They will lose a lot more games this year. Broncos won’t be close to the top AFC team this year. 

I get it, I also don’t base the best teams off W/L records completely. Team that win 11/12 games are just as good many times as those winning 13/14/15 which requires a significant amount of luck. 
 

so even if Denver falls to 11/12 I still think their probably at the top as I respect that  roster. Chicago on the other hand while I think Caleb and Ben are legit is not nearly as strong.

[billsfan89]

The NFL has such wild variance year to year that it's so difficult to predict. Although I always make final predictions after pre-season is over I am feeling the following. 

 

Division Winners - Bills/Texans/KC/Baltimore 

Wildcards - Pats/Chargers/Bengals

 

I think the Jags are a good team in the mix but maybe get some bad luck and fall to 9-8 this year just missing the playoffs. Denver to me just has a "year from hell" they made some good additions but they also lost a lot of their defensive depth and some starters. Everything went right for them in back to back seasons this year it just feels like a 7-10 season for them. 

[corta765]

30 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

I think the Jags are a good team in the mix but maybe get some bad luck and fall to 9-8 this year just missing the playoffs. Denver to me just has a "year from hell" they made some good additions but they also lost a lot of their defensive depth and some starters. Everything went right for them in back to back seasons this year it just feels like a 7-10 season for them. 

I have been running simulations of the season where you pick all 272 games. I keep having the Jags in a 9/10 win area as simply their schedule is tougher and the attrition of variance kicks in same as Denver. So I can see them having a wining season but missing the playoffs given how crowded the AFC is. Denver I have said I am very high on and I trust Payton as a coach to get them to 10-12 wins which still would be 2-4 win drop off year over year. 

[billsfan89]

2 minutes ago, corta765 said:

I have been running simulations of the season where you pick all 272 games. I keep having the Jags in a 9/10 win area as simply their schedule is tougher and the attrition of variance kicks in same as Denver. So I can see them having a wining season but missing the playoffs given how crowded the AFC is. Denver I have said I am very high on and I trust Payton as a coach to get them to 10-12 wins which still would be 2-4 win drop off year over year. 

 

Denver on paper makes a ton of sense, but I think when predicting the NFL you have to just throw in 20-30% chaos to any predictions. 

[JP51]

15 hours ago, corta765 said:

AFC West to me is how much better can Bo get to narrow the gap with Mahomes. If he can take a step, not even Maye level but just top 10 QB they can still win the division.

 

As I said with the chargers it’s prove it. Herbert has nice stats and nothing else. No individual awards, no team success, no major playoff moments or heck even a win.

Nice analysis... I think the Texans scare me not only based on their team, but their division. That is a pretty easy division IMO, I get the Jags... but they could stack a lot of wins out of that Divisional schedule and then the road my go thru Texas...  

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

I think both Denver and NE will both drop off a bit between being somewhat of a dark horse last year and not playing a 1st place schedule.   I'll be surprised if KC doesn't win the west.  For similar reasons think Bills will win east and likely also Ravens.  Though always have a bit of doubt with a L Jackson led team as always seem to fall apart at the end. 

[dave mcbride]

This is probably a terrible prediction from me, but I have a weird hunch that the Colts are going to get lucky on the injury front and challenge for that division. The roster overall is quite good at every level and Steichen is a good coach. I can also see Daniel Jones having a (recent) Sam Darnold or mid-career Kirk Cousins kind of season. He was actually pretty good last year, and his numbers from last season bear that out. That said, Alec Pierce is still recovering from March ankle surgery and hasn't practiced yet ...  

[Nihilarian]

Good stuff!

 

I have a somewhat different take:

 

The AFC East will be a battle between the Bills and Patriots for the division.  Buffalo fans don't want to hear this, but the Patriots just got a whole lot better with AJ Brown over Diggs.

At this point, nobody knows if the Buffalo defense will step up or down this season. Now, on paper they look like world beaters, but we all know it will come down to injuries again. The offense could be questionable after losing a starting OG and that O-line coach. Will the protections/run blocking be the same or worse? 

 

Both the NY Jets and Miami Dolphins (new HC & QB) might have gotten better, so they could throw some wrenches into things. Just not enough to steal the division.

 

The AFC North, I see the Bengals taking that division. Pittsburgh and Baltimore both have new head coaches, and the Browns are well...the Browns. Even a new HC/QB won't help that factory of sadness. 

 

The AFC South, like with the East, I see a battle between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Houston Texans. The Jags look like the better team simply because of the better QB. I like the Jags to take the division again and sweep the Texans. 

 

Both Indy and Tennessee will fight for the bottom. Although, will new OC Brian Daboll have an impact on young QB Cam Ward? Gus Bradly is their new DC, so that team might just take a step up over Indy. Could be very interesting. 

 

The AFC West: Denver, the LA Chargers, and Chiefs will all fight over that division. You simply cannot count out the Chiefs with a healthy Mahomes, no matter how bad that wide receiver corps is: trades or someone could step up. Hopefully and luckily, they will beat each other up so that the AFC East gets home-field advantage. 

 

Buffalo-Cincy-Jacksonville and KC.

 

Just my 2 cents. 

[colin]

my not at all homer takes

 

1 Buffalo -- walks all over the division, sweeps new england, number 1 seed, super bowl champ.  new england is a wild card team without the powder puff schedule to save them.  the jets show a little fight but then sink and corch gets shot, miami is fighting arizona and clevland for the first pick.

 

2 Denver -- falls off some to 11ish wins.  KC rounds down and maybe fights for wild card.  chargers are 10 wins and super inconsistent, raiders stink

 

3 Texans win the division, but i'm less certain on this one so it could be jags.  indy regresses from their hot start least season (which they already did last year).  the flaming thumbtacks stink and i wonder if the new staff lasts more than 2 seasons.

 

4 Baltimore -- still has the chops to win the division, similar record to denver but i gave them the nod.  bengals are wild card team, pitts meanders but maybe isn't lucky this year, clevland sucks out loud and the sanders pipe dream crashes 

 

wild card competitors

new england, chargers, kc, cinci, jacks

 

i think it will be NE, Cinci, and Jacks who make wild card.

 

[corta765]

1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

This is probably a terrible prediction from me, but I have a weird hunch that the Colts are going to get lucky on the injury front and challenge for that division. The roster overall is quite good at every level and Steichen is a good coach. I can also see Daniel Jones having a (recent) Sam Darnold or mid-career Kirk Cousins kind of season. He was actually pretty good last year, and his numbers from last season bear that out. That said, Alec Pierce is still recovering from March ankle surgery and hasn't practiced yet ...  

So my thing with the Colts is since Steichen has taken over they have gone 9-8, 8-9, & 8-9. Every year they have been close and then haven't broken through. It is so incredibly hard for me to believe it gets better with statistically there is more evidence they are equal or worse. The defense on paper especially the secondary could be really good, but tons of injuries. Their offense is IR central between Pierce and Downs, Taylor has run for over 300 carries in back to back years which the stats on him holding at such a high level are not great, and then you have Jones coming back from the ACL. Additionally if they take a step they have to pass Jacksonville or Houston and I would bet money they are 1-3 at seasons end vs those two. Steichen is not a bad coach and they at least took a swing with Richardson, but their ceiling at best feels like 10-7 as a wildcard. What are they really building toward? Call me hyper pessimistic but I just see this as a 7-10 maybe even 6-11 team if the Titans improve that finally has to wake up and reorg what their doing.

 

So your probably going to be right and theyll go 12-5 haha

Edited August 11 by corta765