The Athletic QB Tiers (2 Panelists Voted Josh as Tier 2)

[90sBills]

17 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

Ya we will agree to disagree as there is no team in nfl history who has scored over 30 every playoff game and came through on game winning drives every time presented

Once would be nice. They were down 24-27 to KC at OP in 2023. Had the drive setup to slay the beast at the time. 
 

Who is this team that has scored over 30 every playoff games you’re talking about? Can’t be these guys we’re cheering for. 

[Inigo Montoya]

 

In 25/26, the Bills offense averaged 28.3 points per game in the regular season, 4th best in the NFL.  That night they scored 31.

 

In 25/26, the Bills defense gave up an average of 21.5 points a game, 12th in the NFL.  That night they gave up 33. 

 

The Broncos offense that averaged 23.6 points a game during the regular season put up 33 on us that night.

 

This is not an isolated occurence.  The year before, in the AFC Championship game, the Chiefs' offense that averaged 21.3 points a game all season long hung 32 on our defense that night.

 

The obvious, incontrovertable, mathematically provable fact is that Josh Allen has had one of the worst playoff defenses in NFL history chained to his leg.  I won't even talk about special team isssues or the 13 Second coaching meltdown that still makes me sick to my stomach.

 

Josh did make some mistakes during the Bronco's game, but that isn't why the Bills lost.  I won't even get into the "interception" at the end of that game.  If you want to know why the Bills haven't made it to the SB with the best QB in the NFL, Exhibit A is the Bill's defense that manages to play its worst games in the post-season year after year.

[BillsFan130]

22 minutes ago, 90sBills said:

Once would be nice. They were down 24-27 to KC at OP in 2023. Had the drive setup to slay the beast at the time. 
 

Who is this team that has scored over 30 every playoff games you’re talking about? Can’t be these guys we’re cheering for. 

Bills played clock control that whole game as the TOP was 37-23 Bills

 

Chiefs got 7.7 yards per play on offence which is absolutely absurd.

 

Those 27 points at 7.7 yards per play, was arguably their worst defensive performance in the playoffs outside of the 13 seconds game. 
 

Context matters and if you watched that game, you would know what I'm talking about 

[SoonerBillsFan]

On 8/4/2026 at 12:18 PM, Shaw66 said:

Brady was coached to play with the philosophy that many Bills fans hated when Jauron was the head coach: A punt is a good play. Brady was always happy to throw the ball away and punt rather than chance a turnover. He didn't make risky plays with the ball until time was running out and his team absolutely needed a score. 

 

I have no doubt that he got high grades from his coaches going 2 for 11 on third down. The important stats in his first Super Bowl was zero INTs and zero fumbles. 

Thanks. I've really been puzzled about why that happened. In his MVP year, he clearly seemed to have learned the ball security lesson, and then last season it slipped away. In Denver, he played like a rookie some of the time. 

@Shaw66 throwing bombs today 🤣

[YattaOkasan]

4 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

This is great. Thanks.  Bolded particularly.  What you say is a different but also valid way to look at it.  Josh can take risks others can't, because his body can deliver in situations where other guy's bodies can't.  That's what you call the static view of risk.  Got it, and it makes sense.

 

A simpler way to look at it is in basketball. Do you want Steph Curry taking that three pointer?  Do you want Dramond Green taking the same shot? (Higher probability of success means lower risk.) Obviously, one's view of the riskiness of the decision depends on who's doing the shooting.

 

I suppose every play has three possible outcomes: Positive, negative, and neutral. Make the three pointer, it's positive. Miss it, it's neutral. There is only the slightest chance you get a negative outcome, like a blocked shot turning into a fast-break layup. Even that, however, isn't a very big negative, because it's only two points out of 100 in the game. 

 

Josh's play had very little chance of resulting in any positive outcome and had a good chance of having a neutral outcome.  I don't fault him for taking off downfield.  Good decision. The problem was that, whatever else he may have been doing and deciding to try, he was supposed to have one over-riding concern, which was don't turn it over. That's pretty much an immutable rule for football players. Why?  Because turnovers in football are much more damaging than a fast-break layup. It makes no difference that Josh is the best player and that Josh can make magic happen. He knew the immutable rule, and he didn't have the mental discipline to follow it. Big mistake.  

 

We disagree about the scoring. Yes, take every opportunity you can to score. That's one way first Brady then Mahomes changed the game.  There was a time when, if you got the ball on your own 25 with less than a minute in the half, you'd take a knee and not think twice about it. Now, it's different. You go for it.  The Denver game was an extreme case - not much time, no time outs. But you have Josh Allen, so I was okay going for it. But I don't think that urgency to score changes the analysis of risk. I think the coach and the player still have to manage risk in the same way. As I said, I assume McDermott decided to go for it not because he thought scoring was worth taking a bigger risk. He decided to go for it because he trusted his quarterback to manage the risk properly, and Josh let him down. 

 

In an earlier post, I mentioned the Dick Jauron philosophy. I think he was correct, and I think you see it in game management all the time now. Basketball is simpler to see it in action. Over and over in close end-of-game situations you hear commentators say it - the team that's losing doesn't need to be in a hurry to take threes. Those shots are lower percentage (higher risk), and it's a better strategy to get a quick higher-percentage (lower risk) shot and then play defense. Down four points with three minutes left in the fourth quarter, fourth and five from your own 25, you punt. Why? Because as someone said, going for it on fourth quarter and not making it is like a turnover and probably ends the game. You don't want to end the game early; you want to use every second to try to win it. The urgency to score that you talk about isn't, in my mind, correct. The right strategy is to extend the game, to give yourself another chance and another chance.  Yes, teams are going for it on fourth down more, but generally that's only if they're at or beyond midfield. There's not as much field position advantage to be gained punting there.

 

And one more thing about the urgency to score. Scoring is going down in the NFL, not up. As a general rule, you don't need to score a lot of points to win, so scoring on every possession just isn't a priority.  As scores go down, mistakes like turnovers become more important.  A turnover leading to a break-away shot on goal in hockey is a much bigger problem than a basketball turnover leading to a dunk. If NFL games were played into the 60-point range, then, yeah, scoring now is important. Losing by seven with 15 seconds left in the first half is not a football situation that screams "SCORE NOW!"

 

Thanks for chatting. Good discussion. 

 

That's exactly how I reacted. Allen in his first season? Yup, that play would fit right into the highlight real of the best and worst plays of his rookie year.  But 2025?  No way. It was a colossal blunder for an experienced quarterback. For me too, it was completely unexpected. 

Good examples but still wanna press you on the 4th down some (were pretty much aligned on the play that started this it seems now and our difference i think can be found in the 4th down example).  Im ignoring the other pages cause this thread has gotten long. 

The meta is quickly changing in football to be super aggressive at end of game situations on 4th down (even with a lead).  up 1 and 4th and 4 at the 50 with 4 minutes to go what do you do?  minimizing TOs would suggest punt.  maximizing scoring would suggest going for it.  its ultimately how do these things affect win %.  Josh trying to push for extra yards was not likely (even for him) to meaningfully increase win % while could meaningfully hurt it (which it did).  Pre-snap it was more neutral, but as he had to take off and a spy got some hands on him it changed.  the dynamic nature of the play is what i think he needs to work on.  initially i wanted him to press and do what he could.  but as the play developed and it wasnt there he shouldve understood it became asymmetric (little good and lots of harm). 

 

i think he does struggle with a risk profile thats dynamic within the play because of he was under rep'ed and his physical ability has made him not confront it.  I forget the exact game but its well demonstrated by the play with little time left in half in the low RZ.  we wanna take a quick shot but he held it so long the time expired.  he made the TD throw but as the play developed he didnt realize the asymmetric nature of the risk (probability being the challenge in that situation not harm).  i think you have to trust him to make these evaluations cause its during the play and if hes thinking he aint playing.  However i would encourage him to take these situations and think pre-snap what would make a play go bad where i need to abort/retreat/try again.  i think he doesnt have those built out so when he pushes the gas pedal to the floor hes also taking away the brake pedal.  hes the best pedal to the metal player in the league and its honestly entertaining, but he needs to know when to abort and hit the brake.  Great discussion.

[reddogblitz]

On 8/4/2026 at 7:52 AM, HereComesTheReignAgain said:

One veteran coach said Allen still has much to learn.

“Josh Allen, with under 30 seconds left in the half, runs for a meaningless 12-yard gain and fumbles and gives up a field goal in a playoff game to go behind two scores against Denver,” this coach said. “Until he quits doing that, you can’t rank him as the top quarterback. That is one of the worst plays I’ve ever seen. Cost them the game.”

 

This where I'm at. 

[Shaw66]

40 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

Good examples but still wanna press you on the 4th down some (were pretty much aligned on the play that started this it seems now and our difference i think can be found in the 4th down example).  Im ignoring the other pages cause this thread has gotten long. 

The meta is quickly changing in football to be super aggressive at end of game situations on 4th down (even with a lead).  up 1 and 4th and 4 at the 50 with 4 minutes to go what do you do?  minimizing TOs would suggest punt.  maximizing scoring would suggest going for it.  its ultimately how do these things affect win %.  Josh trying to push for extra yards was not likely (even for him) to meaningfully increase win % while could meaningfully hurt it (which it did).  Pre-snap it was more neutral, but as he had to take off and a spy got some hands on him it changed.  the dynamic nature of the play is what i think he needs to work on.  initially i wanted him to press and do what he could.  but as the play developed and it wasnt there he shouldve understood it became asymmetric (little good and lots of harm). 

 

i think he does struggle with a risk profile thats dynamic within the play because of he was under rep'ed and his physical ability has made him not confront it.  I forget the exact game but its well demonstrated by the play with little time left in half in the low RZ.  we wanna take a quick shot but he held it so long the time expired.  he made the TD throw but as the play developed he didnt realize the asymmetric nature of the risk (probability being the challenge in that situation not harm).  i think you have to trust him to make these evaluations cause its during the play and if hes thinking he aint playing.  However i would encourage him to take these situations and think pre-snap what would make a play go bad where i need to abort/retreat/try again.  i think he doesnt have those built out so when he pushes the gas pedal to the floor hes also taking away the brake pedal.  hes the best pedal to the metal player in the league and its honestly entertaining, but he needs to know when to abort and hit the brake.  Great discussion.

Well, first, this is great. It's enlightening to talk to you about this. 

 

I like your idea about the dynamic nature of the play. Josh's mistake was, I suppose, that he didn't know he had a defender closing in on him, and if he had known, he probably would have tucked the ball away and all would have been fine. In a broader sense, the "no turnover" message has to be running in his head all the time, running in background maybe, but running nonetheless. When he makes a bad play like this, and he's making fewer and fewer of them, he gets caught up in the moment and loses track of that background message. 

 

As for fourth down, I think you're missing the point a bit. Fourth and four from the fifty with four minutes to go and a lead, teams have been going for it not necessarily to score, but to run clock and force the opponent to use timeouts. A score is nice, but getting the opponent to possess the ball next with less than two minutes and no timeouts is the immediate goal. Plus, punting from the fifty there's a good chance they're getting the ball at the 20, so you haven't gained a lot of yardage. 

 

Being so concerned about scoring (granted if you're a believer that Bills defense is crap so you have to score a lot is a reason to be concerned), is over blown. Scoring around the league dropped 10% from 2020 to 2023, and it now has plateaued. The 40 and 50 point scoring bonanzas we saw for a few years aren't happening. That's because defenses figured out how to stop the high flying passing games.  Teams shifted to more balanced offensive attacks, meaning more running, which shortened the games by keeping the clock running, so scoring went down.  The changes in the kickoff rules and the emergence of long-distance kickers has helped to stop the decline in scoring. But total yards allowed have continued to drop, simply because the running clock means teams are running fewer plays. Nine teams averaged less than 300 yards allowed last season, which is pretty much unheard of. 

 

 

49 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

@Shaw66 throwing bombs today 🤣

Yeah, I got the Josh-is-God crowd going! 

[90sBills]

1 hour ago, BillsFan130 said:

Bills played clock control that whole game as the TOP was 37-23 Bills

 

Chiefs got 7.7 yards per play on offence which is absolutely absurd.

 

Those 27 points at 7.7 yards per play, was arguably their worst defensive performance in the playoffs outside of the 13 seconds game. 
 

Context matters and if you watched that game, you would know what I'm talking about 

I watched every second of that game. Finally getting KC in OP to avenge 13 sec. Presented with an opportunity to win and couldn’t. You’re right. Context matters. They haven’t been able to do it when they’ve had the ball the last three years. That’s compelling context. 
 

Like you said we agree to disagree. If history holds we’ll have this same conversation in January. 

[BillsFan130]

3 minutes ago, 90sBills said:

I watched every second of that game. Finally getting KC in OP to avenge 13 sec. Presented with an opportunity to win and couldn’t. You’re right. Context matters. They haven’t been able to do it when they’ve had the ball the last three years. That’s compelling context. 
 

Like you said we agree to disagree. If history holds we’ll have this same conversation in January. 

Ya it's Josh Allen's fault Bass missed the kick lol.

 

But ya man we are way far apart in this so we will agree to disagree. Have a good night buddy

[Augie]

Somebody is always looking for attention. They take turns. Somebody else gets to have two popular number one seeds bumped out on the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament. Offending people’s senses for attention. 

[reddogblitz]

8 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

Ya it's Josh Allen's fault Bass missed the kick lol.

 

But ya man we are way far apart in this so we will agree to disagree. Have a good night buddy

 

It's always someone else's fault.

[BillsFan130]

8 minutes ago, reddogblitz said:

 

It's always someone else's fault.

Huh? He stated that the Bills couldn't get a score that game in crunch time . Bass missed the kick. What did I say that was wrong? Lol

[HappyDays]

17 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

Huh? He stated that the Bills couldn't get a score that game in crunch time . Bass missed the kick. What did I say that was wrong? Lol

 

Nobody bothers talking about the missed kick because we all know that KC was going to immediately drive for a game winning FG in any case. I mean it's barely worth mentioning but the game didn't even end on that drive. The defense had a chance to get one more stop and give the offense some kind of chance to tie the game, but they gave up a 1st down and the game was over. But in everyone's mind the game was already over the moment Bass walked onto the field. Which just goes to show how low the expectations had gotten for the defense.

 

Anyways I find this whole discussion obsolete. Leonhard's defense is not going to be historically bad in the playoffs. So we're a few months away from putting a lot of these silly takes to bed, I think. Josh Allen will be known as the QB that couldn't get over the hump until he does. And when he does it won't be because he raised his historic level of play, it will be because the supporting cast finally met the moment with him. The past few seasons we either needed a better defense or a pass catcher that could make a big play in a big moment. I think we got both this offseason.

[BillsFan130]

29 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Nobody bothers talking about the missed kick because we all know that KC was going to immediately drive for a game winning FG in any case. I mean it's barely worth mentioning but the game didn't even end on that drive. The defense had a chance to get one more stop and give the offense some kind of chance to tie the game, but they gave up a 1st down and the game was over. But in everyone's mind the game was already over the moment Bass walked onto the field. Which just goes to show how low the expectations had gotten for the defense.

 

Anyways I find this whole discussion obsolete. Leonhard's defense is not going to be historically bad in the playoffs. So we're a few months away from putting a lot of these silly takes to bed, I think. Josh Allen will be known as the QB that couldn't get over the hump until he does. And when he does it won't be because he raised his historic level of play, it will be because the supporting cast finally met the moment with him. The past few seasons we either needed a better defense or a pass catcher that could make a big play in a big moment. I think we got both this offseason.

Perfectly said.

 

And I forgot about KC getting a first down on that last drive to ice the game . Appreciate the reminder on that

[billsfan89]

Yawn rage bait

[reddogblitz]

4 hours ago, BillsFan130 said:

Huh? He stated that the Bills couldn't get a score that game in crunch time . Bass missed the kick. What did I say that was wrong? Lol

 

5 hours ago, BillsFan130 said:

Ya it's Josh Allen's fault Bass missed the kick lol.

 

I read this to mean you were sarcastically saying Josh was not at fault in the loss due to Bass missing a FG.

 

If I took it wrong I apologize.

[SoonerBillsFan]

5 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Well, first, this is great. It's enlightening to talk to you about this. 

 

I like your idea about the dynamic nature of the play. Josh's mistake was, I suppose, that he didn't know he had a defender closing in on him, and if he had known, he probably would have tucked the ball away and all would have been fine. In a broader sense, the "no turnover" message has to be running in his head all the time, running in background maybe, but running nonetheless. When he makes a bad play like this, and he's making fewer and fewer of them, he gets caught up in the moment and loses track of that background message. 

 

As for fourth down, I think you're missing the point a bit. Fourth and four from the fifty with four minutes to go and a lead, teams have been going for it not necessarily to score, but to run clock and force the opponent to use timeouts. A score is nice, but getting the opponent to possess the ball next with less than two minutes and no timeouts is the immediate goal. Plus, punting from the fifty there's a good chance they're getting the ball at the 20, so you haven't gained a lot of yardage. 

 

Being so concerned about scoring (granted if you're a believer that Bills defense is crap so you have to score a lot is a reason to be concerned), is over blown. Scoring around the league dropped 10% from 2020 to 2023, and it now has plateaued. The 40 and 50 point scoring bonanzas we saw for a few years aren't happening. That's because defenses figured out how to stop the high flying passing games.  Teams shifted to more balanced offensive attacks, meaning more running, which shortened the games by keeping the clock running, so scoring went down.  The changes in the kickoff rules and the emergence of long-distance kickers has helped to stop the decline in scoring. But total yards allowed have continued to drop, simply because the running clock means teams are running fewer plays. Nine teams averaged less than 300 yards allowed last season, which is pretty much unheard of. 

 

 

Yeah, I got the Josh-is-God crowd going! 

Its a slobberknocker!

[Buffalo Ballin]

On 8/4/2026 at 9:42 AM, T.E. said:

One veteran coach said Allen still has much to learn.

 

“Josh Allen, with under 30 seconds left in the half, runs for a meaningless 12-yard gain and fumbles and gives up a field goal in a playoff game to go behind two scores against Denver,” this coach said. “Until he quits doing that, you can’t rank him as the top quarterback. That is one of the worst plays I’ve ever seen. Cost them the game.”

 

I'd be kind of horrified if my team's head coach subscribed to the theory that a first-half turnover can be the sole play that costs you a game. What a moronic statement.

Even experienced coaches are wrong. Even they forget that THIS is a team game.

 

Our defense lost the majority of that game. Not Josh Allen. Because Josh Allen doesn't play defense.

[Ayjent]

14 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Well, absolutely, the Cook fumble may have been worse, as the game played out. But I don't agree with most of the rest of what you say. 

 

First, once you get to the playoffs, you're in the tournament, and to play the game with the mindset that the defense isn't good enough to win it all is ridiculous. Nobody does that.  You're faced a 60 minute game, you play it, you do everything you can to win it, and you see what happens. The Bills were better than the Patriots, and the Patriots got to the Super Bowl. They weren't thinking "we're not good enough to win it."

 

But even if you think you're the underdog, that doesn't mean you should start taking unnecessary risks. In fact, it's just the opposite.  That was the brilliance of Dick Jauron. He had a crappy collection of players, and he knew that the best way to compete when you're outmanned is to do everything you can to keep the score low. You play field position, you keep punting. You don't take chances until you don't have a choice. If you keep the score low, anything can happen in the fourth quarter. 

 

So, in the Denver game, if you believed your defense wasn't good enough, the smart move was to run the clock and keep the score low, not take some risk that could allow the Broncos to score. 

 

It's amazing to me to hear people say it was smart to risk a turnover in that situation.

 

And, frankly, I think last season was one of the best chances the Bills had to win a Super Bowl. They should have beaten Denver, they probably would have been favored against the Pats and against the Seahawks. 

How you go into a game and how you play it are 2 different things.  The truth is the Bills defense just gave up a huge play for a TD on a defensive breakdown in both coaching and execution and the Broncos were all over it.  This put the Bills down in a half that they were clearly the better team, especially with their best unit vs the Broncos' best unit.  At the end of the half Josh was aggressively trying to make a play im guessing out of desire, determination, and some frustration. I could be wrong about that but the entire thing stunk of pressing on the entire team's part.   Its clear he had the greenlight and McD knew he had to let his best player try to regain the momentum in the game. Why?  McD knew his offense had to win the game. 

 

Dicky J was a brilliant coach for mediocre to below avg talent and a pair of shackles for talented players.  I would hate to see how frustrating that guy coaching Josh Allen would be. 

 

I dont disagree that the Bills best chance was last year but the D has always been the achilles heel in the playoffs for the Josh Allen-led Bills teams, and last year's version of the D was one of the worst theyve had aside from the year before.  It wasnt a terrible D but it was a flawed one that would and did cost the Bills.  The Patriots made the super bowl because their D was reliable despite their offense being pedestrian and mistake prone in the postseason.   You can win in the playoffs despite turnovers and poor offense with a reliable Defense.  The Bills simply lacked a reliable Defense and that is why they went home early.   They also lacked any threat outside at WR and that made it harder for Allen to make throws without extending the play.   There is a lot more context than just Josh has to make better decisions in that moment.  Thats what im trying to convey, and I still believe it was the right call to risk it. Josh isnt a take the safe play QB. Thats what makes him special but also can bite you at times.  He should have known to get rid of it, and for that yes I agree that was a bad decision.  That's the "pressing" part.  He just has never had a Defensive performance that has bailed him out of his mistakes and Brady, Brees, and Manning have. Those dudes made mistakes too.

Edited August 6 by Ayjent

[NoHuddleKelly12]

On 8/4/2026 at 12:16 PM, Einstein said:

Every time? 

Exactly.