The Athletic QB Tiers (2 Panelists Voted Josh as Tier 2)

[Puckman5]

15 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

No.  That's absolutely the point.  Allen has pretty much everything else.  What he hasn't shown yet is the discipline to do the right thing on every single play. Brady had it, to the max. He took sacks, he threw the ball away, he called timeouts. So long as it was pre-snap on the ball was in his hands, he did the right thing every play. 

 

Allen's fumble was 100% on him, and it was 100% preventable. He wasn't processing all of the information to understand at that moment the single most important thing was not to turn the ball over. It was a horrible, costly play that never should have happened. He has to play every play with that kind of focus, and he won't be the best version of himself until he learns to play with that discipline. 

So 13 seconds was on Josh?  The pass that went through Diggs hands against KC in the playoffs was on Josh?  Tom Brady playoff int% 2.1% while Josh is at 1.1%. Dumb play by Josh before half at Denver, but facts aren't on your side.  Brady was certainly great, but the teams around him were better as well.  

[Tenhigh]

11 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

That is so literally untrue, it's pathetic. He doesn't go into games with that mindset, ever.  Maybe you do. In his career, there's only been one playoff game when he needed over 40 points to win. There have been six when he needed to get to the mid-30s.  Most of his playoff games, he's needed under 30 to win. 

 

The score was 17-10. He shouldn't have been thinking he needed 40 to win. 

How can you bust a guy's chops for hyperbole when that is the driving factor in your posts In this thread? I think the general point is that we'd all love for Josh to not have to make some of the crazy plays he does to keep the train moving, but until the org gives him a defense and run game that click at the same time we need that to get over the hump.

[machine gun kelly]

18 hours ago, HereComesTheReignAgain said:

The annual Athletic QB Tiers came out this morning.  Unbelievably, 2 panelists voted Josh as a tier 2 QB!  These 2 panelists must be incredibly spiteful or astonishingly stupid.  How do you not immediately dismiss any contributors to your story that claim Allen is not in the top tier of QBs in the NFL?!  I know it is a paywall article, but here is the link.  https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/interactive/nfl-quarterback-tiers-insider-rankings-2026/ 

 

How panelists voted in 2026

Tier 1  - 48 votes

Tier 2 - 2

 

Allen moved one vote closer toward unanimous Tier 1 status and could be the most feared quarterback in the league.

“Josh Allen is unreal,” a defensive coordinator said. “He and Stafford are the two guys I would not want to play the most. Allen’s ability to make plays, be hard to tackle, put the team on his shoulders — when it’s fourth down, he is going to win.”

 

One veteran coach said Allen still has much to learn.

“Josh Allen, with under 30 seconds left in the half, runs for a meaningless 12-yard gain and fumbles and gives up a field goal in a playoff game to go behind two scores against Denver,” this coach said. “Until he quits doing that, you can’t rank him as the top quarterback. That is one of the worst plays I’ve ever seen. Cost them the game.”

 

Others saw the positives.

“The thing that jumped out to me about the playoffs last year was the physicality and the plays the quarterbacks make with their toughness, their size and their strength, particularly as they advance on,” an exec said. “Josh has got that. Obviously, it’s TBD with (new coach) Joe Brady, but one thing that those guys in the top tier do is, when you get off the bus on the road, the other 52 guys think they got a chance.”

Allen led all quarterbacks in rushing yards (579) and rushing touchdowns (14) in 2025.

 

“He’s the real deal because he can do it as a dropback quarterback, and they do some run game with him,” another defensive coordinator said. “The way they use him is the way Baltimore has to use Lamar (Jackson) to get the most out of him.”

A GM noted that the Bills have given Allen a strong defense and a strong run game, but not at the same time.

“Josh is a 1 because he is the reason they remain competitive,” this GM said. “He’s so physically talented. But I’m ready to say he’s never gonna win a Super Bowl because their team’s getting worse around him, and I think his style of football is going to start breaking him down physically.”

Even though I commented yesterday he is a tier 1,  and no one is even close, the coach who made the comment about the 12 yard run was foolish is right.  If this was an ad lib by Josh it was dumb.  Not in hindsight, but the reality is we could’ve gone into the half only down by 4 of Prater makes the field goal.  Remember, at the end of the game we lost by 3 in 33-30.  We had the ball and yes, I’m in the camp it was a catch.

 

I know in my heart we would’ve beaten the Pats the next week.  As to this topic, Allen cannot keep shooting himself in the foot in these big moments.  Just rely on your teammates.  Stop trying to do it all.  I blame that in large part on Beane.  If he just gave Josh the weapons he needed, he wouldn’t feel as if he has to do it all.

 

Even this year, the Pats didnt just give Maye Doubs, but then added Brown.  Why was not Beane doing the same.  Why not go harder after Brian Thomas Jr.?  Why didn’t he draft McConkey vs. Coleman?  Why?  Beane keeps half doing it, and I don’t want to hear about the cap or Josh is so expensive.  Burrow is around the same QB cost, yet, they have two incredible WRs.

[BillsFan130]

5 hours ago, 90sBills said:

Damn defense. At least make a stop in OT when Denver had the ball first…oh wait. Nevermind. 

It is absolutely wild how some of you will still find anything to justify the defence when they gave up 30 to a Bo Nix led offence in regulation.

 

And no, "6 points were caused by the offensive turnovers" is not a legit excuse, as Denver dropped a wide open TD pass on their first drive, amongst other bad drops, so the points all even out 

 

Edited Wednesday at 01:21 PM by BillsFan130

[Ayjent]

17 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

It did cost them the game. He didn't say it was the only play that cost them the game. But if we could see the grades each player got in film review on each of his plays, I'd bet that no player on the team got a worse grade than Allen got on that play. His JOB, the job they pay him $50 million a year to do, is to take care of the football.  The most important time to do that job is in the last two minutes of the game. The second most important is in the last two minutes of the first half. It was a horrible play, and it put his offense in a terrible hole against one of the top defenses in the league. Brady doesn't do that, Manning doesn't do that, Rodgers doesn't do that. Josh wants to be an all-time great, he cannot do that to his team.

I mean it’s fair to blame Josh for not playing it smart in that situation but the Cook fumble deep in Denver territory where the Bills could have been on their way to a laugher and making Denver one dimensional was the most costly turnover in the game.  Without that turnover and critical defensive blunders you don’t have a team that is pressing on offense.  The truth is that the Defense wasn’t good enough to take the Bills all the way to a championship even if the Bills beat Denver and that Defense wasn’t up to the task in key situations, either.  Josh deserves blame for sure but the risk had to be taken given the play around him. It was frustrating but it was the culmination of a team letdown and the one thing that McD’s philosophy on D had as priority no. 1, not giving up the big play, immediately preceded the mistake by Josh.   It was a team meltdown not just a bad play in a vacuum. 

[dave mcbride]

2 hours ago, Ayjent said:

I mean it’s fair to blame Josh for not playing it smart in that situation but the Cook fumble deep in Denver territory where the Bills could have been on their way to a laugher and making Denver one dimensional was the most costly turnover in the game.  Without that turnover and critical defensive blunders you don’t have a team that is pressing on offense.  The truth is that the Defense wasn’t good enough to take the Bills all the way to a championship even if the Bills beat Denver and that Defense wasn’t up to the task in key situations, either.  Josh deserves blame for sure but the risk had to be taken given the play around him. It was frustrating but it was the culmination of a team letdown and the one thing that McD’s philosophy on D had as priority no. 1, not giving up the big play, immediately preceded the mistake by Josh.   It was a team meltdown not just a bad play in a vacuum. 

The hit on Cook was textbook and a fumble-forcing play if there ever was one. Cook was doing what he was assigned to do in that situation: rush the ball for a gain. Great play by the defender. On their own 30 with 16 seconds left and no timeouts, the Bills had virtually NO chance to score unless they hit a deep sideline pass and got the ball out of bounds. *Maybe* if they hit a 35 yard seam pass they can scramble quickly enough to spike it, but that's doubtful. The one play you cannot do is take off and run because there is literally NO upside. With 7 DBs playing back, the best you can hope for is a 10-15 yard run out of bounds which sets you up for a hail mary--and when's the last time the Bills completed a hail mary??? If you're tackled in bounds, that's the half. If the throw isn't there, you have to eat it and take a knee. Not doing that was one of the biggest mental blunders of his entire career and frankly inexcusable given the particular situation and overall gravity of the game.    

[Shaw66]

8 hours ago, YattaOkasan said:

Want to also mention the respect I have for you as a poster.

 

I noted the correlation of TOs and winning.  Yes a QB should seek to minimize TOs but you need to score. If you have a lead you may not need to score but being down in a playoff game is not a time to minimize TOs. It’s the time to maximize scoring. He pushed it too far but he should be trying to score while he’s losing in a playoff game.  Also note this was his first TO. It’s not like he had 3 and then did this play. He’s forcing it cause they are down after he played an otherwise good first half and he felt he needed to make a play.  If you think you need to minimize TOs when you're

losing in the playoffs then we’re gonna disagree on things like going for it on 4th down when losing (it’s called a turnover).  

I think at end of the day though it’s the Josh experience. He DOES convert those absolute silly plays when he shouldn’t be able to. It bit him hard in this situation. But he has converted 7 when the half would’ve run out (should’ve taken 3) and he throws a lateral for a first down (in the RZ). He is able to make “stupid” plays good at high rate. As mentioned he did make the fumble right in the Den game by getting the lead in the 4th quarter.  For that reason it doesn’t really matter what other QBs would do or what coaches of other QBs would want.  He's gonna take more risk than other players.  When those risks realize he looks like an idiot but as long as the payoffs keep coming it’s worth it (again he took the lead back by having three scoring drives in the 4th quarter against a great DEN defense). 

this whole thread started with this one play being the reason someone said he’s not tier 1. I don’t know if you had a different position but you’re carrying this argument now. JA17 was the MVP 2 years ago and has been second in voting at least 3 other times. Calling him tier 2 cause of that one play is silly. No way to justify him being a whole step behind anyone let alone multiple QBs. It’s a dumb play by a QB who does high variance things.  

I haven't read all the responses to me over the last seven or eight hours, but I was thinking about what you wrote since I saw it last night. I have several things I want to say. 

 

First, thanks for the thoughtful post. It's good stuff. 

 

Second, I did want to respond to you last paragraph, because I was unclear about that. Josh Allen absolutely is a tier 1 quarterback in this league at this time. Everyone agrees with that, except a couple of voters who aren't thinking clearly. Repeatedly we see articles or hear comments from coaches, GMs, players, sports writers, fans, everyone. Josh is the QB no one wants to play, Josh is the QB everyone wants on his team.  It's absolutely silly to argue he isn't tier 1 because of the play we've been discussing, or because of other plays that he's made, or because he hasn't won a Super Bowl.  

 

Third, I think all of the bolded sentences are incorrect. Although there are a lot of things that feel different about playoff games, the game is still the game. The playoffs magnify some of the things that are axiomatic - that is, turnovers are worse in the playoffs. Being down by ten at the half is rather than seven is worse in the playoffs than the regular season. There's less urgency to score down seven with 15 seconds left in the playoffs than in the regular season. 

 

It's a team game, and it makes no difference that Josh hadn't had a turnover yet. Josh's decision making should not be governed AT ALL by what his personal stat sheet looks like - "well, I haven't fumbled yet and I haven't had an explosive run yet, so I can be stupid with the ball." It's not like he has an allotment of turnovers per game, and since he hadn't had one yet, he could take chances. His team never wants turnovers, and it absolutely didn't want one in the playoffs on the wrong side of the 50 with ten seconds left in the half. They had played a lousy half, had been outgained and outscored, and a turnover had cost them a scoring opportunity. It doesn't matter whether Josh had played well or poorly up to that point. 

 

He absolutely should NOT be taking more risks than other players. He probably should be taking FEWER risks than other players.  Josh is not the best quarterback in the league because he takes risks. He's the best quarterback in the league because he is one of the best throwers, he's the best runner (maybe behind Lamar), he's one of the best leaders, and he's one of the best decision makers.  The combination of the talents he brings to the field makes him the best, and I don't think it's close at this point. Other QBs have great games and make great plays, but none of them do it all like Josh does. Taking unnecessary risks is not what makes him great - it is what brings him back to the pack. That's exactly what the voter said who said Josh was tier 2 - he's great but sometimes he hurts his team. 

 

Josh isn't great because he makes stupid decisions and sometimes makes them work. He's great because his talents allow him to make good decisions that would be bad decisions for most other quarterbacks. He decides to throw into a tight window because he has the arm to get the ball there - good decision for Josh but bad decision to for most other QBs because the window will close before the ball arrives. He decides to run with the pocket collapsing, because he's big enough to break the tackle and get positive yardage - good decision for Josh but bad for many QBs, like Burrow, for example, because Burrow won't break the tackle and will be tackled for a loss. The right decision for Burrow is to throw the ball away. Josh isn't taking a risk when he scramble for 25 yards - he's making a smart play that other QBs simply cannot make.

 

We've heard it said forever - quarterback is the hardest position in any team sport.  The QB is, as I've said, expected to do everything right, all the time, and that includes understanding down and distance, the game situation, etc. and making on-field decisions accordingly. Stupid decisions are stupid decisions, whether they're made by a rookie or by the greatest player in the game. For as long as you've been watching football, you've heard announcers, commentators, coaches, and players say that the ball carrier must not run in the open field holding the ball in an outstretched arm. Always, always, always tuck it, and sometimes hold it with two hands. When Josh was running with the ball in the open field, he made a decision to put the ball at risk by holding it away from his body. That was a mistake, all day, every day, every year, every game, every situation (except reaching the ball over the line to gain or goal line sometimes). The quarterback is supposed to play the game conscious of immutable rules like that, the quarterback more so than any other player on your team has to have that mental discipline. 

 

I think Josh's biggest problem as a player is that he isn't a naturally disciplined thinker at QB. He's been so much better physically than everyone else, he didn't have to be a brilliant game manager. I mean, just imagine him playing at Wyoming - he was huge compared to just about all of the skill players, and he was nearly as big as many of the linemen. He could throw the ball farther and more accurately than any QB in the conference, and it wasn't even close. He could carry the ball better than most of the running backs in the conference. Bills players say Josh is the best at everything - he's the best golfer, the best three-on-three basketball player. Everything is easy for Josh physically, and all the way through college, he just had to play. Compare him to Brock Purdy or to Joe Burrow. Those guys have spent their careers since high school learning to do everything correctly, every play, because they just aren't good enough to succeed on talent alone. But when he got to the NFL, Josh's lack of discipline as a thinker, as a student of the game, became a liability because big and as talented as he may be, in the NFL opponents make you pay for your mistakes. 

 

Josh has been improving in the mental part of the game ever since he came to Buffalo, but he has lapses. In the Denver situation, time on the clock, down and distance, etc., the importance of not giving the ball away was even greater than in most other game situations. Trying to score in that situation makes sense only if you are absolutely sure you will not turn it over, except on a ball you throw 50 yards downfield. Josh knows that, but there are moments where he lacks the mental discipline to execute what he knows. {At Wyoming, that scramble in that situation, with the ball held out in the open like that, might actually have been a good play, because no one was going to make him pay for it.) Against Denver it was a stupid rookie mistake. Josh is not a better player because he takes stupid chances; taking those chances REDUCES his value as a player. 

 

 

[Shaw66]

5 hours ago, 90sBills said:

This has always been his Achilles heel. You mentioned that you have no doubt he would get it. I used to feel that way. Not so sure now with each passing season and blown opportunities. 

I still think he'll get it.  I still think he's John Elway, except smarter and more talented. It took Elway years to stop playing Superman, because like Allen, he had spent his whole life playing games where was (1) the best athlete, (2) the biggest guy, and (3) one of the smartest kids. The only way to succeed at sports if you aren't the best athlete and you aren't the biggest is to outthink the other guy. That's how Burrow got so good, and that's how Brady got so good. Josh is always fighting the bad habits that arose from being a bigger better athlete, the lazy mental discipline. He's always trying to get it under control. He's getting better, season after season. He has lapses, but he's getting better. 

 

I love the guy. 

5 hours ago, Puckman5 said:

So 13 seconds was on Josh?  The pass that went through Diggs hands against KC in the playoffs was on Josh?  Tom Brady playoff int% 2.1% while Josh is at 1.1%. Dumb play by Josh before half at Denver, but facts aren't on your side.  Brady was certainly great, but the teams around him were better as well.  

You're missing the point, and it's because I wasn't clear about what I think. I think Josh is the best QB on the planet. But he tends to make more stupid mistakes than the most disciplined QBs in the league, like Brady, Rodgers, Burrow. Even Mahomes, who takes chances, tends not to make as many stupid mistakes as Josh. The play against Denver was a play he never, never should have made. He knew that before the game, he knew that after the game, but he still doesn't have the mental discipline to have made the right decision in the heat of the moment.  That is a weakness in his game. 

[Shaw66]

5 hours ago, Tenhigh said:

How can you bust a guy's chops for hyperbole when that is the driving factor in your posts In this thread? I think the general point is that we'd all love for Josh to not have to make some of the crazy plays he does to keep the train moving, but until the org gives him a defense and run game that click at the same time we need that to get over the hump.

No, no, no. He's playing the friggin NFL playoffs for a team that is at the very least competitive at the highest level, and mistakes cost games. No coach wants a quarterback thinking, "my defense is suspect, so I'll do something I know I'm not supposed to do because maybe a miracle will happen."  Do you actually think McDermott or Brady in that situation would have told Allen, "our defense is struggling, so do whatever it takes to get a touchdown on this play. Don't worry about the turnover"????

 

Stupid play is stupid play, and your Hall of Fame quarterback is not supposed to make stupid plays. 

[Sierra Foothills]

5 hours ago, Puckman5 said:

So 13 seconds was on Josh?  The pass that went through Diggs hands against KC in the playoffs was on Josh?  Tom Brady playoff int% 2.1% while Josh is at 1.1%. Dumb play by Josh before half at Denver, but facts aren't on your side.  Brady was certainly great, but the teams around him were better as well.  

 

Bass' missed FG...

 

[Shaw66]

2 hours ago, Ayjent said:

I mean it’s fair to blame Josh for not playing it smart in that situation but the Cook fumble deep in Denver territory where the Bills could have been on their way to a laugher and making Denver one dimensional was the most costly turnover in the game.  Without that turnover and critical defensive blunders you don’t have a team that is pressing on offense.  The truth is that the Defense wasn’t good enough to take the Bills all the way to a championship even if the Bills beat Denver and that Defense wasn’t up to the task in key situations, either.  Josh deserves blame for sure but the risk had to be taken given the play around him. It was frustrating but it was the culmination of a team letdown and the one thing that McD’s philosophy on D had as priority no. 1, not giving up the big play, immediately preceded the mistake by Josh.   It was a team meltdown not just a bad play in a vacuum. 

Well, absolutely, the Cook fumble may have been worse, as the game played out. But I don't agree with most of the rest of what you say. 

 

First, once you get to the playoffs, you're in the tournament, and to play the game with the mindset that the defense isn't good enough to win it all is ridiculous. Nobody does that.  You're faced a 60 minute game, you play it, you do everything you can to win it, and you see what happens. The Bills were better than the Patriots, and the Patriots got to the Super Bowl. They weren't thinking "we're not good enough to win it."

 

But even if you think you're the underdog, that doesn't mean you should start taking unnecessary risks. In fact, it's just the opposite.  That was the brilliance of Dick Jauron. He had a crappy collection of players, and he knew that the best way to compete when you're outmanned is to do everything you can to keep the score low. You play field position, you keep punting. You don't take chances until you don't have a choice. If you keep the score low, anything can happen in the fourth quarter. 

 

So, in the Denver game, if you believed your defense wasn't good enough, the smart move was to run the clock and keep the score low, not take some risk that could allow the Broncos to score. 

 

It's amazing to me to hear people say it was smart to risk a turnover in that situation.

 

And, frankly, I think last season was one of the best chances the Bills had to win a Super Bowl. They should have beaten Denver, they probably would have been favored against the Pats and against the Seahawks. 

[Shaw66]

28 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

The hit on Cook was textbook and a fumble-forcing play if there ever was one. Cook was doing what he was assigned to do in that situation: rush the ball for a gain. Great play by the defender. On their own 30 with 16 seconds left and no timeouts, the Bills had virtually NO chance to score unless they hit a deep sideline pass and got the ball out of bounds. *Maybe* if they hit a 35 yard seam pass they can scramble quickly enough to spike it, but that's doubtful. The one play you cannot do is take off and run because there is literally NO upside. With 7 DBs playing back, the best you can hope for is a 10-15 yard run out of bounds which sets you up for a hail mary--and when's the last time the Bills completed a hail mary??? If you're tackled in bounds, that's the half. If the throw isn't there, you have to eat it and take a knee. Not doing that was one of the biggest mental blunders of his entire career and frankly inexcusable given the particular situation and overall gravity of the game.    

Hallelujah!!

 

You're right about Cook's fumble. Yes, he's supposed to secure the ball, but fumbles happen.  @Aygent may be correct that his fumble may have been more consequential, but his fumble wasn't a mental mistake anything like Josh's play.

 

You state it exactly correctly.  

 

Some people have said that McDermott should just have taken a knee and not risked the turnover, but I don't think that's correct. Because McDermott had the best player on the planet, and because he makes miracles happen, I think McDermott should take a shot there.  However, he makes that decision because he trusted Allen to be smart. Allen chose those five seconds to be stupid. 

 

 

 

[YattaOkasan]

22 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I haven't read all the responses to me over the last seven or eight hours, but I was thinking about what you wrote since I saw it last night. I have several things I want to say. 

 

First, thanks for the thoughtful post. It's good stuff. 

 

Second, I did want to respond to you last paragraph, because I was unclear about that. Josh Allen absolutely is a tier 1 quarterback in this league at this time. Everyone agrees with that, except a couple of voters who aren't thinking clearly. Repeatedly we see articles or hear comments from coaches, GMs, players, sports writers, fans, everyone. Josh is the QB no one wants to play, Josh is the QB everyone wants on his team.  It's absolutely silly to argue he isn't tier 1 because of the play we've been discussing, or because of other plays that he's made, or because he hasn't won a Super Bowl.  

 

Third, I think all of the bolded sentences are incorrect. Although there are a lot of things that feel different about playoff games, the game is still the game. The playoffs magnify some of the things that are axiomatic - that is, turnovers are worse in the playoffs. Being down by ten at the half is rather than seven is worse in the playoffs than the regular season. There's less urgency to score down seven with 15 seconds left in the playoffs than in the regular season. 

 

It's a team game, and it makes no difference that Josh hadn't had a turnover yet. Josh's decision making should not be governed AT ALL by what his personal stat sheet looks like - "well, I haven't fumbled yet and I haven't had an explosive run yet, so I can be stupid with the ball." It's not like he has an allotment of turnovers per game, and since he hadn't had one yet, he could take chances. His team never wants turnovers, and it absolutely didn't want one in the playoffs on the wrong side of the 50 with ten seconds left in the half. They had played a lousy half, had been outgained and outscored, and a turnover had cost them a scoring opportunity. It doesn't matter whether Josh had played well or poorly up to that point. 

 

He absolutely should NOT be taking more risks than other players. He probably should be taking FEWER risks than other players.  Josh is not the best quarterback in the league because he takes risks. He's the best quarterback in the league because he is one of the best throwers, he's the best runner (maybe behind Lamar), he's one of the best leaders, and he's one of the best decision makers.  The combination of the talents he brings to the field makes him the best, and I don't think it's close at this point. Other QBs have great games and make great plays, but none of them do it all like Josh does. Taking unnecessary risks is not what makes him great - it is what brings him back to the pack. That's exactly what the voter said who said Josh was tier 2 - he's great but sometimes he hurts his team. 

 

Josh isn't great because he makes stupid decisions and sometimes makes them work. He's great because his talents allow him to make good decisions that would be bad decisions for most other quarterbacks. He decides to throw into a tight window because he has the arm to get the ball there - good decision for Josh but bad decision to for most other QBs because the window will close before the ball arrives. He decides to run with the pocket collapsing, because he's big enough to break the tackle and get positive yardage - good decision for Josh but bad for many QBs, like Burrow, for example, because Burrow won't break the tackle and will be tackled for a loss. The right decision for Burrow is to throw the ball away. Josh isn't taking a risk when he scramble for 25 yards - he's making a smart play that other QBs simply cannot make.

 

We've heard it said forever - quarterback is the hardest position in any team sport.  The QB is, as I've said, expected to do everything right, all the time, and that includes understanding down and distance, the game situation, etc. and making on-field decisions accordingly. Stupid decisions are stupid decisions, whether they're made by a rookie or by the greatest player in the game. For as long as you've been watching football, you've heard announcers, commentators, coaches, and players say that the ball carrier must not run in the open field holding the ball in an outstretched arm. Always, always, always tuck it, and sometimes hold it with two hands. When Josh was running with the ball in the open field, he made a decision to put the ball at risk by holding it away from his body. That was a mistake, all day, every day, every year, every game, every situation (except reaching the ball over the line to gain or goal line sometimes). The quarterback is supposed to play the game conscious of immutable rules like that, the quarterback more so than any other player on your team has to have that mental discipline. 

 

I think Josh's biggest problem as a player is that he isn't a naturally disciplined thinker at QB. He's been so much better physically than everyone else, he didn't have to be a brilliant game manager. I mean, just imagine him playing at Wyoming - he was huge compared to just about all of the skill players, and he was nearly as big as many of the linemen. He could throw the ball farther and more accurately than any QB in the conference, and it wasn't even close. He could carry the ball better than most of the running backs in the conference. Bills players say Josh is the best at everything - he's the best golfer, the best three-on-three basketball player. Everything is easy for Josh physically, and all the way through college, he just had to play. Compare him to Brock Purdy or to Joe Burrow. Those guys have spent their careers since high school learning to do everything correctly, every play, because they just aren't good enough to succeed on talent alone. But when he got to the NFL, Josh's lack of discipline as a thinker, as a student of the game, became a liability because big and as talented as he may be, in the NFL opponents make you pay for your mistakes. 

 

Josh has been improving in the mental part of the game ever since he came to Buffalo, but he has lapses. In the Denver situation, time on the clock, down and distance, etc., the importance of not giving the ball away was even greater than in most other game situations. Trying to score in that situation makes sense only if you are absolutely sure you will not turn it over, except on a ball you throw 50 yards downfield. Josh knows that, but there are moments where he lacks the mental discipline to execute what he knows. {At Wyoming, that scramble in that situation, with the ball held out in the open like that, might actually have been a good play, because no one was going to make him pay for it.) Against Denver it was a stupid rookie mistake. Josh is not a better player because he takes stupid chances; taking those chances REDUCES his value as a player. 

 

 

Appreciate the post and reflection.  as noted you are a good poster and its been a good convo.  We seem very close with some nuance differences.  Summarizing a couple of points of strong agreement between us.  Josh is an amazing talent and he makes stupid decisions.  Hes clearly tier 1. 

I think youre right its poor logic for him to wanna push cause things arent going perfectly and he hasnt had a chance to make his impact yet.  Wasnt trying to excuse so much as note his frame of reference for why he pushed in that situation.  It was dumb of him to push so hard he didnt want to tuck in the ball in that situation.  i trust he has reflected on it.  
I think youre likely right hes not discplined at the situational awareness part of being a QB.  Though I would attribute to him being under rep'ed generally coming to the league.  i think thats more likely than him not thinking cause his physical attributes bail him out.  He had less situations to think through those reps and then in those fewer moments his physical abilities saved him more than an average QB causing even less thought and maybe reinforcing some bad habits that would be weeded out with more reps.  

The comparison to other QBs is appropriate because you mentioned what other coaches/QB would think.  I noted that he makes decisions that are good for him but bad for other QBs.  I think this is where our risk discussion went sideways and were talking past each other a bit.  my frame of reference was generally keeping risk static whereas you seem to think of risk for each QB separately.  if thats your POV than i would agree he shouldnt take more risks.  if risk is more general and static then he absolutely should be taking more risks since he can convert more.  i think the general/static is how its framed in the media so i defaulted to that perspective but acknowledge the value in yours.    

Appreciate you acknowledging the primary areas of disagreement.  I think you highlighted the primary areas of difference well.  My question for you cause is when do you stop minimizing TOs and start maximizing scoring?  is it the final desperate moments?  i dont think so.  thats why i brought up the 4th down example.  Theres a lot of examples and its more clear to think through the situation that didnt happen.  isnt going for it on 4th down not minimizing TOs?  let me know your thoughts on 4th down.  Appreciate the discussion.  

[Sierra Foothills]

Playoff Interception Rates for Notable Active QBs

 

Jalen Hurts: 1.0% INT% (3 INT on 291 attempts)

Josh Allen: 1.1% INT% (6 INT on 534 attempts)

Patrick Mahomes: 1.3% INT% (10 INT on 755 attempts)

Matthew Stafford: 1.4% INT% (7 INT on 483 attempts)

Jared Goff: 1.4% INT% (5 INT on 348 attempts)

Joe Burrow: 1.6% INT% (4 INT on 251 attempts)

Aaron Rodgers: 1.7% INT% (14 INT on 807 attempts)

Brock Purdy: 1.7% INT% (4 INT on 229 attempts)

Lamar Jackson: 2.9% INT% (7 INT on 241 attempts)

Dak Prescott: 2.5% INT% (7 INT on 276 attempts)

Trevor Lawrence: 6.0% INT% (7 INT on 116 attempts)

 

[90sBills]

3 hours ago, BillsFan130 said:

It is absolutely wild how some of you will still find anything to justify the defence when they gave up 30 to a Bo Nix led offence in regulation.

 

And no, "6 points were caused by the offensive turnovers" is not a legit excuse, as Denver dropped a wide open TD pass on their first drive, amongst other bad drops, so the points all even out 

 

It’s equally wild that some can’t see the offense, despite any defensive shortcomings, hasn’t been able to do it when the opportunity is in front of them. 

[Cray51]

21 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

brady threw 40ints in the playoffs and 88TDs

 

allen's over twice as efficient at 29/6

 

the idea that Brady somehow 'made the right decision every time' is laughable

No no, Brady throwing the interception was the RIGHT PLAY TO MAKE.  He knew the end game result and had to keep the natural game flow going.

 

Just too simple minded to see that

[DapperCam]

23 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

“Josh Allen, with under 30 seconds left in the half, runs for a meaningless 12-yard gain and fumbles and gives up a field goal in a playoff game to go behind two scores against Denver,” this coach said. “Until he quits doing that, you can’t rank him as the top quarterback. That is one of the worst plays I’ve ever seen. Cost them the game.”

 

This is the truth. The greatest QBs make the right decision every time. Brady, Rodgers, Brees. Every time. They each had a killer instinct that helped them be really smart, every play. Josh still needs to get more focused like that. When he does that, he will be the best ever. 

When Brady threw that pick 6 at the end of his last playoff game as a Patriot, that was definitely the right choice. He was literally flawless!

[90sBills]

29 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

 

Some people have said that McDermott should just have taken a knee and not risked the turnover, but I don't think that's correct. Because McDermott had the best player on the planet, and because he makes miracles happen, I think McDermott should take a shot there.  However, he makes that decision because he trusted Allen to be smart. Allen chose those five seconds to be stupid. 

 

This right here. McD knew he had one of the best to play the game at qb and people criticized him for trying to get points there?
 

It’s crazy to me the length some go to just to absolved Allen of such an obvious boneheaded play by an elite qb I’ve ever seen giving the situation. Even with Allen’s history I was still shocked when it happened. I flashed back to his first playoff game against the Texans. That’s why I made the comment about him not overcoming this. It’s just how he’s wired.

[Shaw66]

7 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

Appreciate the post and reflection.  as noted you are a good poster and its been a good convo.  We seem very close with some nuance differences.  Summarizing a couple of points of strong agreement between us.  Josh is an amazing talent and he makes stupid decisions.  Hes clearly tier 1. 

I think youre right its poor logic for him to wanna push cause things arent going perfectly and he hasnt had a chance to make his impact yet.  Wasnt trying to excuse so much as note his frame of reference for why he pushed in that situation.  It was dumb of him to push so hard he didnt want to tuck in the ball in that situation.  i trust he has reflected on it.  
I think youre likely right hes not discplined at the situational awareness part of being a QB.  Though I would attribute to him being under rep'ed generally coming to the league.  i think thats more likely than him not thinking cause his physical attributes bail him out.  He had less situations to think through those reps and then in those fewer moments his physical abilities saved him more than an average QB causing even less thought and maybe reinforcing some bad habits that would be weeded out with more reps.  

The comparison to other QBs is appropriate because you mentioned what other coaches/QB would think.  I noted that he makes decisions that are good for him but bad for other QBs.  I think this is where our risk discussion went sideways and were talking past each other a bit.  my frame of reference was generally keeping risk static whereas you seem to think of risk for each QB separately.  if thats your POV than i would agree he shouldnt take more risks.  if risk is more general and static then he absolutely should be taking more risks since he can convert more.  i think the general/static is how its framed in the media so i defaulted to that perspective but acknowledge the value in yours.    

Appreciate you acknowledging the primary areas of disagreement.  I think you highlighted the primary areas of difference well.  My question for you cause is when do you stop minimizing TOs and start maximizing scoring?  is it the final desperate moments?  i dont think so.  thats why i brought up the 4th down example.  Theres a lot of examples and its more clear to think through the situation that didnt happen.  isnt going for it on 4th down not minimizing TOs?  let me know your thoughts on 4th down.  Appreciate the discussion.  

This is great. Thanks.  Bolded particularly.  What you say is a different but also valid way to look at it.  Josh can take risks others can't, because his body can deliver in situations where other guy's bodies can't.  That's what you call the static view of risk.  Got it, and it makes sense.

 

A simpler way to look at it is in basketball. Do you want Steph Curry taking that three pointer?  Do you want Dramond Green taking the same shot? (Higher probability of success means lower risk.) Obviously, one's view of the riskiness of the decision depends on who's doing the shooting.

 

I suppose every play has three possible outcomes: Positive, negative, and neutral. Make the three pointer, it's positive. Miss it, it's neutral. There is only the slightest chance you get a negative outcome, like a blocked shot turning into a fast-break layup. Even that, however, isn't a very big negative, because it's only two points out of 100 in the game. 

 

Josh's play had very little chance of resulting in any positive outcome and had a good chance of having a neutral outcome.  I don't fault him for taking off downfield.  Good decision. The problem was that, whatever else he may have been doing and deciding to try, he was supposed to have one over-riding concern, which was don't turn it over. That's pretty much an immutable rule for football players. Why?  Because turnovers in football are much more damaging than a fast-break layup. It makes no difference that Josh is the best player and that Josh can make magic happen. He knew the immutable rule, and he didn't have the mental discipline to follow it. Big mistake.  

 

We disagree about the scoring. Yes, take every opportunity you can to score. That's one way first Brady then Mahomes changed the game.  There was a time when, if you got the ball on your own 25 with less than a minute in the half, you'd take a knee and not think twice about it. Now, it's different. You go for it.  The Denver game was an extreme case - not much time, no time outs. But you have Josh Allen, so I was okay going for it. But I don't think that urgency to score changes the analysis of risk. I think the coach and the player still have to manage risk in the same way. As I said, I assume McDermott decided to go for it not because he thought scoring was worth taking a bigger risk. He decided to go for it because he trusted his quarterback to manage the risk properly, and Josh let him down. 

 

In an earlier post, I mentioned the Dick Jauron philosophy. I think he was correct, and I think you see it in game management all the time now. Basketball is simpler to see it in action. Over and over in close end-of-game situations you hear commentators say it - the team that's losing doesn't need to be in a hurry to take threes. Those shots are lower percentage (higher risk), and it's a better strategy to get a quick higher-percentage (lower risk) shot and then play defense. Down four points with three minutes left in the fourth quarter, fourth and five from your own 25, you punt. Why? Because as someone said, going for it on fourth quarter and not making it is like a turnover and probably ends the game. You don't want to end the game early; you want to use every second to try to win it. The urgency to score that you talk about isn't, in my mind, correct. The right strategy is to extend the game, to give yourself another chance and another chance.  Yes, teams are going for it on fourth down more, but generally that's only if they're at or beyond midfield. There's not as much field position advantage to be gained punting there.

 

And one more thing about the urgency to score. Scoring is going down in the NFL, not up. As a general rule, you don't need to score a lot of points to win, so scoring on every possession just isn't a priority.  As scores go down, mistakes like turnovers become more important.  A turnover leading to a break-away shot on goal in hockey is a much bigger problem than a basketball turnover leading to a dunk. If NFL games were played into the 60-point range, then, yeah, scoring now is important. Losing by seven with 15 seconds left in the first half is not a football situation that screams "SCORE NOW!"

 

Thanks for chatting. Good discussion. 

 

8 minutes ago, 90sBills said:

Even with Allen’s history I was still shocked when it happened. 

That's exactly how I reacted. Allen in his first season? Yup, that play would fit right into the highlight real of the best and worst plays of his rookie year.  But 2025?  No way. It was a colossal blunder for an experienced quarterback. For me too, it was completely unexpected. 

[jlgarsh]

21 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Yes, Bills would have won if Cooks had caught the ball. But Allen's fumble still would have been the worst play any Bill made that day. 

 

The bolded is what people don't understand.  Allen's job is NOT to be Superman. His job is to make the plays he can make, without turning the ball over. That's his job. Allen threw two interceptions and lost two fumbles. Allen would have had to throw for four TDs and run for two more to overcome mistakes like that.  

 

He looked like a rookie, and he lost the game.

The Cooks fumble was worse