The Athletic QB Tiers (2 Panelists Voted Josh as Tier 2)

[T.E.]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

I would bet you $1000 that if you asked Joe Brady or Josh Allen before that possession was okay if, because the Bills defense wasn't that good, Josh should risk a turnover on that possession, both of them would have said absolutely not.  

 

That is exactly my point. If Josh actually thinks it's okay to take risks in that position, then he has failed to learn one of the most important points that every coach tries to teach every quarterback.  

 

It is not Josh's job to decide when to take risks like that. His job is to avoid turnovers generally, and especially to avoid turnovers at the end of each half. He failed - miserably - at his job on that play, and I just can't help people who can't see or don't want to see that Josh may a stupid, game-changing decision on that play. 

 

And if you ask Josh, he'll tell you it was a stupid, game-changing decision. 

He's been forced to go into every playoff game with the mindset of "I am going to need to score 40 points to put us in a good spot, and even that may not be enough."

 

That can't be understated when looking at his decision making.

[Shaw66]

19 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

Can't disagree more that its not Josh's job to decide when to take risks. Josh has on multiple occasions talked about how his risk taking is situational, so he very much views it as his responsibility.  he has said that he goes out to make plays and sometimes puts him in a bad spot (directly after the DEN loss for that quote); hes aware of the downsides.  Dont know why you think he (or any QB) shouldnt be trusted with making risked based decisions.  Thats why QB is higher paid than the coach.  I understand turnovers are the metric most correlated with winning, but many times they are out of his control.  Bruce Arians is considered a QB Whisperer and hes most famous for his no risk it no biscuit line.  
Additionally, what decision are you specifically referring to that was stupid and game-changing?  Not tucking the ball while being tackled (sure the real sin here), trying to break tackles (he does that routinely so im good), trying to make a big play late in a half (again he does it routinely).  so much of your discussion feels very results oriented and not about the considerations that led to the "decision." 

Thanks for this. I think the answers to your questions are in what you wrote. 

 

Turnovers correlate with wins. So, the single most important thing for QBs to do is not turn it over. He handles the ball every play, and if he turns it over regularly, he's not playing. A 3-1 TD to INT ratio is fine; 2 to 1 and the guy isn't going to last. That means that unless the game is on the line on this possession, avoiding turnovers is the most important thing.  Why?  Because compared to a punt, a turnover creates a 40+ yard change in field position. That's the equivalent of allowing a very explosive play. To turn it over four times in a game is a disaster.  So there's all of that. 

 

As for the play at the end of the half, once Allen started running he knew a couple of things: He had no timeouts. He probably wasn't getting to the sideline. So, this was his last offensive play of the half. A touchdown was extremely unlikely (he couldn't get to the sideline, so he should not have expected to get to the end zone either). Only one thing was important, only one thing. Don't turn it over.  He's paid to analyze the play in real time exactly like that. As I've been saying, rookies fumble at that time. Hall of Fame quarterbacks are supposed to know that it's time to head to the locker room and get ready for the next 30 minutes.  So, yes, not tucking is exactly the sin. It was okay that he took off running; that's what the play was giving him. And if somehow the field had broken the right way for him, so he could just sprint for a TD, then okay. But at the instant he could see that he wasn't getting a touchdown without getting hit and breaking tackles, ball security was the only thing he was supposed to be thinking about. He should never have been running in the open field with the ball not tucked. Never. Never. Running backs get multi-game benchings for carrying the ball like that, and your QB is supposed to be your smartest player out there. 

 

Show any coach, and any NFL QB, film of that play, tell them down and distance, score, time on the clock, and no timeouts.  Freeze it as Allen passes the line of scrimmage and ask them what's the most important thing for the rest of this play. Every single one will say, "Don't fumble." It's the most important thing, period. It's something that Allen knows but he chose to ignore. 

 

It's impossible to overstate what a bad football play that was.

 

If the Bills don't give up those three points and everything else stays the same, the Bills win the game. It's impossible to overstate how consequential that play was to the outcome of the game. 

 

As for risks the QB should take, there are very few times risking a turnover is acceptable. One is on third and long when you're punting on fourth down. Risking an INT deep in that situation is a decision for the QB. Risking an INT in the flat is NOT a decision the QB is supposed to make ever. Late in the game, you're losing by less than a TD, risking an INT on fourth down is okay; before that, no. Why risk an INT on third down if you'd get another chance on fourth down?  Fourth quarter and you're down more than a TD, sure, risk an INT.  Other than those circumstances, for the reasons I gave above, the QB is not supposed to make a play that risks an INT.  

 

Now, there are close calls, of course.  Your receiver is running a slant and has half a step on the defender, there's an INT risk if you throw it poorly. That risk is okay to take, because you're trusting your QB to make the throw. Throwing the ball into a tight window is a risk that the QB decides to take when he has confidence in his arm and the receiver. But that's different from just throwing into a crowd and hoping your wideout makes a play. That's an unacceptable risk. 

[Shaw66]

9 minutes ago, T.E. said:

He's been forced to go into every playoff game with the mindset of "I am going to need to score 40 points to put us in a good spot, and even that may not be enough."

 

That can't be understated when looking at his decision making.

That is so literally untrue, it's pathetic. He doesn't go into games with that mindset, ever.  Maybe you do. In his career, there's only been one playoff game when he needed over 40 points to win. There have been six when he needed to get to the mid-30s.  Most of his playoff games, he's needed under 30 to win. 

 

The score was 17-10. He shouldn't have been thinking he needed 40 to win. 

[Dr. Who]

23 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

That is so literally untrue, it's pathetic. He doesn't go into games with that mindset, ever.  Maybe you do. In his career, there's only been one playoff game when he needed over 40 points to win. There have been six when he needed to get to the mid-30s.  Most of his playoff games, he's needed under 30 to win. 

 

The score was 17-10. He shouldn't have been thinking he needed 40 to win. 

The final score was 33 - 30. In the Bills playoff losses, they averaged giving up 33.2 points, so they were up to their standard under McDermott for post-season games once one gets past the wild card round.

 

Technically, I guess Josh should have been thinking he needed 34 to win.

[Sierra Foothills]

5 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

“Josh Allen, with under 30 seconds left in the half, runs for a meaningless 12-yard gain and fumbles and gives up a field goal in a playoff game to go behind two scores against Denver,” this coach said. “Until he quits doing that, you can’t rank him as the top quarterback. That is one of the worst plays I’ve ever seen. Cost them the game.”

 

This is the truth. The greatest QBs make the right decision every time. Brady, Rodgers, Brees. Every time. They each had a killer instinct that helped them be really smart, every play. Josh still needs to get more focused like that. When he does that, he will be the best ever. 

 

@Shaw66, I don't think I have to state how I view you as a poster.

 

That said, your adherence to this black/white binary judgement of Josh Allen is ridiculous.

 

There are countless examples of Brady, Mahomes, and other all-time greats making mistakes that cost their teams.

 

On the Tuck Rule play for instance Brady was completely unaware of the NON-Blind Side blitz by Charles Woodson. It was obvious Woodson was coming and he was right in Brady's face. Brady was bailed out by a rule that was never called before and was changed afterwards. Two games later the Patriots won their first Super Bowl. That's only one example.

 

Honestly I find your position on this baffling.

 

5 hours ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

Focusing on one play and ignoring the total body of work is nonsense.

 

Exactly.

 

The idea that one play can veto an entire career of work is the ultimate in absurdity.

 

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, Dr. Who said:

The final score was 33 - 30. In the Bills playoff losses, they averaged giving up 33.2 points, so they were up to their standard under McDermott for post-season games once one gets past the wild card round.

 

Technically, I guess Josh should have been thinking he needed 34 to win.

You really, truly have to question anyone who thinks the mindset should be 'well let's just play a nice safe conservative game and the defense will keep us in it'

 

It's so far removed from reality

[strive_for_five_guy]

6 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

“Josh Allen, with under 30 seconds left in the half, runs for a meaningless 12-yard gain and fumbles and gives up a field goal in a playoff game to go behind two scores against Denver,” this coach said. “Until he quits doing that, you can’t rank him as the top quarterback. That is one of the worst plays I’ve ever seen. Cost them the game.”

 

This is the truth. The greatest QBs make the right decision every time. Brady, Rodgers, Brees. Every time. They each had a killer instinct that helped them be really smart, every play. Josh still needs to get more focused like that. When he does that, he will be the best ever. 

“When” he does that, or “if” he does that?

[T.E.]

34 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

That is so literally untrue, it's pathetic. He doesn't go into games with that mindset, ever.  Maybe you do. In his career, there's only been one playoff game when he needed over 40 points to win. There have been six when he needed to get to the mid-30s.  Most of his playoff games, he's needed under 30 to win. 

 

The score was 17-10. He shouldn't have been thinking he needed 40 to win. 

"In his career, there's only been one playoff game when he needed over 40 points to win. There have been six when he needed to get to the mid-30s."

 

LMAO, thanks for proving my point. 

[Shaw66]

37 minutes ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

“When” he does that, or “if” he does that?

Oh, I have no doubt he will do it. He's a smart guy, and he's motivated.

[NoSaint]

6 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

It did cost them the game. He didn't say it was the only play that cost them the game. But if we could see the grades each player got in film review on each of his plays, I'd bet that no player on the team got a worse grade than Allen got on that play. His JOB, the job they pay him $50 million a year to do, is to take care of the football.  The most important time to do that job is in the last two minutes of the game. The second most important is in the last two minutes of the first half. It was a horrible play, and it put his offense in a terrible hole against one of the top defenses in the league. Brady doesn't do that, Manning doesn't do that, Rodgers doesn't do that. Josh wants to be an all-time great, he cannot do that to his team.

I’d buy what you are selling if it happened with any consistency. 
 

as an isolated, one off, from a guy that’s been incredibly safe with the ball for a few years now- I assure you all the guys have turnovers they’d like back. 

[The Jokeman]

2 hours ago, BillsFan130 said:

Here is also some math 101: The Bills were winning 27-23 with 4 minutes left to go. If the Bills defence stops denver, by rule, Denver gets 0 points on the final drive and they are held to 23 points and the Bills win.

It was a bad play that cost them 3 points. There were more costly plays than that. Putting Dane jackson on a 1 on 1 situation (7 point mistake there), putting Savage on a high leverage spot (cost them at least 4 points), and James cook fumbling. (Cost them 3-7 points)

 

At the end of the day, The offence came back and had a 4 point lead with 4 minutes to go. To say a fumble in a first half that cost them 3 points was the deciding factor in the game because they lost by 3, is such a narrow way of looking at what actually happened

If we don't give up the 3 than we're up 7 and could have won with the Prater FG that ended up tieing the game. As we've seen all too often playoffs can be won and loss by a handful of plays. I'd venture to say our chances of winning would have been significantly better had we not given them an easy 3 before the half.

[nedboy7]

10 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:

If we don't give up the 3 than we're up 7 and could have won with the Prater FG that ended up tieing the game. As we've seen all too often playoffs can be won and loss by a handful of plays. I'd venture to say our chances of winning would have been significantly better had we not given them an easy 3 before the half.

100%

[CincyBillsFan]

6 hours ago, The Jokeman said:

At the end of the day the Bills lost by 3 points, that fumble lead to the Broncos getting 3 points...Math 101. 

Well then the Cook fumble also lost the game as the Bills were in FG range when he lost the ball.

 

Also the defensive scheme that allowed 2 long TD passes against backup DB's on 3rd down lost the game as Denver would have had to kick FG's instead (8 point swing).

 

Math 101?  Are you kidding me. It's football 101 that the math you're using is like trying to use transitive game score properties to predict future game outcomes.

 

 

[CincyBillsFan]

3 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

 

If the Bills don't give up those three points and everything else stays the same, the Bills win the game. It's impossible to overstate how consequential that play was to the outcome of the game. 

 

Using your criteria you could say this about 10 plays that happened in that or any other loss.

 

This may be a minority opinion but I blame the coaches for that last fumble by Allen.  Given they had no TO's left and there was less then 20 seconds left in the half and they were inside their own 30 Allen should have been told to take a knee.  Sure, it would have pissed him off but so what.  In similar situations over the years I've seen both John Harbaugh (with Jackson) and Andy Reid (with Mahomes) take a knee at the end of the half much to the anger of their QB's.

 

 

[BillsFan130]

1 hour ago, The Jokeman said:

If we don't give up the 3 than we're up 7 and could have won with the Prater FG that ended up tieing the game. As we've seen all too often playoffs can be won and loss by a handful of plays. I'd venture to say our chances of winning would have been significantly better had we not given them an easy 3 before the half.

It didn't help that's for sure. But the main reason the bills didn't win that game wasn't because that play.

 

Make a stop against a mediocre QB when you're up 4 with 4 minutes to go and you go to the afc championship game. It's as simple as that 

[Shaw66]

2 hours ago, NoSaint said:

I’d buy what you are selling if it happened with any consistency. 
 

as an isolated, one off, from a guy that’s been incredibly safe with the ball for a few years now- I assure you all the guys have turnovers they’d like back. 

Good point. However, there are mistakes and then there are mistakes. They aren't all the same. You miss a throw, you get from the blindside and fumble, okay. But that fumble in that situation was a lack of mental preparation. He shouldn't make the mistake, not seven years into a stellar career.  It was disturbing to see. 

1 hour ago, CincyBillsFan said:

Using your criteria you could say this about 10 plays that happened in that or any other loss.

 

This may be a minority opinion but I blame the coaches for that last fumble by Allen.  Given they had no TO's left and there was less then 20 seconds left in the half and they were inside their own 30 Allen should have been told to take a knee.  Sure, it would have pissed him off but so what.  In similar situations over the years I've seen both John Harbaugh (with Jackson) and Andy Reid (with Mahomes) take a knee at the end of the half much to the anger of their QB's.

 

 

Yes. 

 

On the other hand, you're supposed to be able to trust your HOF QB not to be stupid.  Remind him over the headset, and then trust him to keep the ball. 

[Doc Brown]

8 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Yes, Bills would have won if Cooks had caught the ball. But Allen's fumble still would have been the worst play any Bill made that day. 

 

The bolded is what people don't understand.  Allen's job is NOT to be Superman. His job is to make the plays he can make, without turning the ball over. That's his job. Allen threw two interceptions and lost two fumbles. Allen would have had to throw for four TDs and run for two more to overcome mistakes like that.  

 

He looked like a rookie, and he lost the game.

I doubt a rookie would put 30 points with three TD's against an elite defense in a playoff game.  I only put two of the turnovers on Allen and would be more worried if he only had 6 turnovers in the previous 14 playoff games.

[YattaOkasan]

7 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Thanks for this. I think the answers to your questions are in what you wrote. 

 

Turnovers correlate with wins. So, the single most important thing for QBs to do is not turn it over. He handles the ball every play, and if he turns it over regularly, he's not playing. A 3-1 TD to INT ratio is fine; 2 to 1 and the guy isn't going to last. That means that unless the game is on the line on this possession, avoiding turnovers is the most important thing.  Why?  Because compared to a punt, a turnover creates a 40+ yard change in field position. That's the equivalent of allowing a very explosive play. To turn it over four times in a game is a disaster.  So there's all of that. 

 

As for the play at the end of the half, once Allen started running he knew a couple of things: He had no timeouts. He probably wasn't getting to the sideline. So, this was his last offensive play of the half. A touchdown was extremely unlikely (he couldn't get to the sideline, so he should not have expected to get to the end zone either). Only one thing was important, only one thing. Don't turn it over.  He's paid to analyze the play in real time exactly like that. As I've been saying, rookies fumble at that time. Hall of Fame quarterbacks are supposed to know that it's time to head to the locker room and get ready for the next 30 minutes.  So, yes, not tucking is exactly the sin. It was okay that he took off running; that's what the play was giving him. And if somehow the field had broken the right way for him, so he could just sprint for a TD, then okay. But at the instant he could see that he wasn't getting a touchdown without getting hit and breaking tackles, ball security was the only thing he was supposed to be thinking about. He should never have been running in the open field with the ball not tucked. Never. Never. Running backs get multi-game benchings for carrying the ball like that, and your QB is supposed to be your smartest player out there. 

 

Show any coach, and any NFL QB, film of that play, tell them down and distance, score, time on the clock, and no timeouts.  Freeze it as Allen passes the line of scrimmage and ask them what's the most important thing for the rest of this play. Every single one will say, "Don't fumble." It's the most important thing, period. It's something that Allen knows but he chose to ignore. 

 

It's impossible to overstate what a bad football play that was.

 

If the Bills don't give up those three points and everything else stays the same, the Bills win the game. It's impossible to overstate how consequential that play was to the outcome of the game. 

 

As for risks the QB should take, there are very few times risking a turnover is acceptable. One is on third and long when you're punting on fourth down. Risking an INT deep in that situation is a decision for the QB. Risking an INT in the flat is NOT a decision the QB is supposed to make ever. Late in the game, you're losing by less than a TD, risking an INT on fourth down is okay; before that, no. Why risk an INT on third down if you'd get another chance on fourth down?  Fourth quarter and you're down more than a TD, sure, risk an INT.  Other than those circumstances, for the reasons I gave above, the QB is not supposed to make a play that risks an INT.  

 

Now, there are close calls, of course.  Your receiver is running a slant and has half a step on the defender, there's an INT risk if you throw it poorly. That risk is okay to take, because you're trusting your QB to make the throw. Throwing the ball into a tight window is a risk that the QB decides to take when he has confidence in his arm and the receiver. But that's different from just throwing into a crowd and hoping your wideout makes a play. That's an unacceptable risk. 

Want to also mention the respect I have for you as a poster.

 

I noted the correlation of TOs and winning.  Yes a QB should seek to minimize TOs but you need to score. If you have a lead you may not need to score but being down in a playoff game is not a time to minimize TOs. It’s the time to maximize scoring. He pushed it too far but he should be trying to score while he’s losing in a playoff game.  Also note this was his first TO. It’s not like he had 3 and then did this play. He’s forcing it cause they are down after he played an otherwise good first half and he felt he needed to make a play.  If you think you need to minimize TOs when you're

losing in the playoffs then we’re gonna disagree on things like going for it on 4th down when losing (it’s called a turnover).  

I think at end of the day though it’s the Josh experience. He DOES convert those absolute silly plays when he shouldn’t be able to. It bit him hard in this situation. But he has converted 7 when the half would’ve run out (should’ve taken 3) and he throws a lateral for a first down (in the RZ). He is able to make “stupid” plays good at high rate. As mentioned he did make the fumble right in the Den game by getting the lead in the 4th quarter.  For that reason it doesn’t really matter what other QBs would do or what coaches of other QBs would want.  Hes gonna take more risk than other players.  When those risks realize he looks like an idiot but as long as the payoffs keep coming it’s worth it (again he took the lead back by having three scoring drives in the 4th quarter against a great DEN defense). 

this whole thread started with this one play being the reason someone said he’s not tier 1. I don’t know if you had a different position but you’re carrying this argument now. JA17 was the MVP 2 years ago and has been second in voting at least 3 other times. Calling him tier 2 cause of that one play is silly. No way to justify him being a whole step behind anyone let alone multiple QBs. It’s a dumb play by a QB who does high variance things.  

Edited Wednesday at 04:28 AM by YattaOkasan

[90sBills]

6 hours ago, BillsFan130 said:

It didn't help that's for sure. But the main reason the bills didn't win that game wasn't because that play.

 

Make a stop against a mediocre QB when you're up 4 with 4 minutes to go and you go to the afc championship game. It's as simple as that 

Damn defense. At least make a stop in OT when Denver had the ball first…oh wait. Nevermind. 

[90sBills]

6 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Good point. However, there are mistakes and then there are mistakes. They aren't all the same. You miss a throw, you get from the blindside and fumble, okay. But that fumble in that situation was a lack of mental preparation. He shouldn't make the mistake, not seven years into a stellar career.  It was disturbing to see. 

Yes. 

 

On the other hand, you're supposed to be able to trust your HOF QB not to be stupid.  Remind him over the headset, and then trust him to keep the ball. 

This has always been his Achilles heel. You mentioned that you have no doubt he would get it. I used to feel that way. Not so sure now with each passing season and blown opportunities.