Oddsmakers rank starting QBs by POINT-SPREAD VALUE: JA clear #1

[QCity]

1 hour ago, CA OC Bills Fan said:

This poll, metric, whatever you want to call it isn't saying Allen's the best QB, it's just saying the drop-off between Allen and Allen is larger than between all other QB1s and their backup. 

 

In a way it's saying both. And for those giving this a shrug - the oddsmakers carry a lot more weight than the talking heads. One group backs up their convictions with actual money, the other creates sensationalist analysis for clicks.

[NoSaint]

10 hours ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

I'd take the over on 7.23

the only reason it’s not 20 is we would do everything humanly possible to bleed clock from the very first play 

[NoSaint]

5 hours ago, CA OC Bills Fan said:

This poll, metric, whatever you want to call it isn't saying Allen's the best QB, it's just saying the drop-off between Allen and Allen is larger than between all other QB1s and their backup. So, we need him to stay healthy more than any other team needs their QB to stay healthy. I think we all knew that which is why there's a bunch of back and forth in another thread about whether to upgrade the backup.

 

Josh Allen is the best QB in football. His backup, Kyle Allen, is not a good QB. Duh.

 

yes, but…. 
 

I agree thats what it’s saying. My only counter is if the gap from qb 1 to qb 60 is 7.23 points… I’d venture about 6 of those are in the top 32 not the bottom 32 

 

in another framing- if Josh went out the gap between Kyle Allen and drew lock is practically nothing here for this exercise 

Edited August 5 by NoSaint

[GoBills808]

11 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

 

yes, but…. 
 

I agree that what it’s saying. My only counter is if the gap from qb 1 to qb 60 is 7.23 points… I’d venture about 6 of those are in the top 32 not the bottom 32 

 

in another framing- if Josh went out the gap between Kyle Allen and drew lock is practically nothing here for this exercise 

that's right imo

 

value to the spread is more a function of the QB's importance to his particular offense than a referendum on the quality of his backup

[Thrivefourfive]

Yayyyy!!! We have the best starter and worst backup. Rejoice! 

[NoSaint]

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

that's right imo

 

value to the spread is more a function of the QB's importance to his particular offense than a referendum on the quality of his backup

and to that layer of nuance - I think we rely on Josh to self create more offense than any qb in the league. 
 

you could put mid tier starters that are game managers without mobility in this offense and it’d suffer tremendously due to the lack of perimeter threats.

[NewEra]

I think he’s worth 21+ points.  Not even 8?  

16 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Let’s all appreciate this time. Josh Allen will finish as the best player to ever wear a Bills uniform (if he hasn’t passed Bruce yet). He plays the most important position in sports. We will never have another QB at this level and may never have another player at this level. Enjoy the ride

Every day

[Sierra Foothills]

16 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Let’s all appreciate this time. Josh Allen will finish as the best player to ever wear a Bills uniform (if he hasn’t passed Bruce yet). He plays the most important position in sports. We will never have another QB at this level and may never have another player at this level. Enjoy the ride

 

I have OJ a bit ahead of Bruce but regardless I agree with you that Josh will finish as the best... he's very nearly there already.

 

7 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Every day

 

Me too. My dislike for the NFL is growing and I can well imagine that after Josh hangs 'em up that I'll immediately become a casual fan.

 

Josh is the reason I remain a rabid NFL fan and I hate to even think about a world where he's no longer the Bills QB... so while he is I celebrate him every day.

 

8 hours ago, eball said:

He’s literally the reason I bought season tix in the new barn. 

 

You and a lot of people. The Bills did well to recognize that they needed to capitalize on Josh in order to build a new stadium. Some might argue with me but IMO, the new Highmark is the House that Josh Built.

 

[eball]

7 hours ago, Sierra Foothills said:

new Highmark is the House that Josh Built

 

💯💯💯

[vincec]

22 hours ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

I'd take the over on 7.23

No kidding. The difference in point production between having Josh Allen vs Kyle Allen at QB would be a heck of a lot more than 7.23 points.

[NoSaint]

9 minutes ago, vincec said:

No kidding. The difference in point production between having Josh Allen vs Kyle Allen at QB would be a heck of a lot more than 7.23 points.

if you exclude the remarkable outliers and do 5th best to 5th worst offense the gap is about 10 ppg. To say Josh is 75% if that gap is something still.