Is Jim Leonhard actually our prized offseason acquisition

[transient]

I hope that DJ has a top 5 Bills WR season in 2026-2027 and that the best offseason acquisition is still Jim Leonhard. If he elevates the play of the defense as a whole and gets a couple of standout performances AND his sphincter doesn't break the pucker-meter in high leverage situations his impact is greater than that of a single player.

[BarleyNY]

There’s no Josh Allen or Myke’s Garrett in that list, so yes, our new DC will have the biggest impact - especially since he is changing the scheme so significantly. Good, bad or great, the impact will be big. I expect growing pains so how the defense looks later in the season will be much more telling. 

[Matt_In_NH]

In a perfect world this would be what people thiink.....it would mean lots of defenders are crushing it.

[JP51]

1 hour ago, Jauronimo said:

I don't think we will know what we really need to know until February.  

This is where I am at.. did his D do it when it counted or not

1 hour ago, djp14150 said:

Jury still out.

 

i do think if they are changing the D significantly, we are going to have D mistakes during the first half of the season.  If he gradually add things week to week it might be his full D scheme yet and won’t be until next season

Well technically the jury hasnt even been chosen LOL... but yes time will tell... 

[JP51]

31 minutes ago, transient said:

I hope that DJ has a top 5 Bills WR season in 2026-2027 and that the best offseason acquisition is still Jim Leonhard. If he elevates the play of the defense as a whole and gets a couple of standout performances AND his sphincter doesn't break the pucker-meter in high leverage situations his impact is greater than that of a single player.

This would make us all happy

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, sven233 said:

We have 6 Playoff losses since 2021.  In these games, McDermott's defenses have given up an average of 33 points per game.  We know this.  It is well documented that his defenses can't hold up against great QBs in the Playoffs.

 

If Leonhard can come in and just get that number to a respectable 23 PPG, I think you will see a big difference in the final results for this team.  You know how many of those 6 we would have lost giving up 23?  Just 1..... and that was the game against the Bengals where the team just didn't have anything left emotionally to give.  We would have 5 more Playoff wins and who knows what they would have led to.

 

I know 23 might seem like a tough number to shoot for, but with our offense and the addition of Moore and hopefully an extra 2 possessions per game because our defense can actually get off the field, maybe we could even give up 24-26 and still be OK.  Point is, our defense has been the main reason we haven't gotten to where we have wanted to get to.  Whether it be the total points given up in a game or not being able to get that 1 final stop needed after Allen gives us a lead with just a couple minutes remaining, the defense has been frustrating to say the least.  If Leonhard can just improve up in those 2 areas in the Playoffs, we'll have a chance.  If the offense can't get to 24 and we lose?  Then that will be a different conversation at that time, but I will take my chances with Allen to be able to get to that number when needed.

 

The defense gave up 23 in regulation in Denver. Unfortunately the O had given up 6 too.

 

But I take the point. In principle you are not wrong.

[Nihilarian]

I think we will know after week five as that schedule looks brutal, and even after those first two games against Houston/Detroit. That Houston defense and that Detroit offense. Then the Chargers, Patriots, and Rams...yikes! Just brutal for a new regime regardless of the players. 

[BillsShredder83]

4 hours ago, JP51 said:

Welp, training camp is underway, we are getting our first peek at new rookie players, players returning from injury that limited their contributions last years, Free Agents etc... Is Jim Leonhard actually going to be the one that has the biggest overall impact on this team... more aggressive defense, using personnel better situationally, great teacher, more fun to watch defense instead of the slow death by 1000 passes and runs drives.... or will he struggle because we need personnel change, system continuity, rookie DC needs to learn etc...  I am holding out hope that he will be the guy we talk about at the end of the year that has had the biggest impact...  Who do you feel will be the person acquired in the offseason that we will look back on and say yeah, this guy was the one. 

I selected yes, but hard to seperate myself enough to say no bias there.  Out of all of the options I think he has the highest impact potential, a force multiplier.  Ive believed the defense is talented and we were getting nowhere near the results out of the group that we shouldve been.  Add in 2 consecutive, untapped, defense heavy drafts, and as far as potential to change the team--- I believe on paper he's above anyone else.

 

Basically, take the whole list, and project each selection to have the efficacy we are hoping they'll have.... and JL has more leverage to improve us than anyone else on that list

[dave mcbride]

6 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The defense gave up 23 in regulation in Denver. Unfortunately the O had given up 6 too.

 

But I take the point. In principle you are not wrong.

To be fair, Denver's offense wasn't very good, especially on below-the-top line metrics (e.g., 20th in the league in drives ending in an offensive score). 

 

[H2o]

I think it's 67% Leonhard, 33% Moore. 

 

I think Leonhard is going to completely transform this defense within 2 years, and we will already see a huge difference in it this season. The defense is what has always been lacking for us to get to the SB. Yes, Josh needed weapons the last couple of years. Yes, Moore can be a huge part in changing that. Still, the Bills have lost Playoff games where the offense has put up 29, 30, and 36 points. We need a defense that can hold a team under 24 at the least in the Playoffs, under 20 preferably. 

[GunnerBill]

12 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

To be fair, Denver's offense wasn't very good, especially on below-the-top line metrics (e.g., 20th in the league in drives ending in an offensive score). 

 

 

Yes I know. But I was responding specifically to the "if we could just get to 23 we'd be guaranteed to win." The D did basically get to 23. The O turned it over twice in their own end and both times the Bills pitched a 3 and out.

[BuffaloNuts]

I'd be curious to see what Josh Allen thinks of the defense at the end of camp. He might not tell us completely, but is Jim Leonards D harder to practice against then recent years? If so, hopefully that translates to the season. I expect growing pains though. It would be nice not to dread 3rd downs, running game and end of game drives against us. 

[HappyDays]

35 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The defense gave up 23 in regulation in Denver. Unfortunately the O had given up 6 too.

 

But I take the point. In principle you are not wrong.

 

I will say if you're going to take points off the board, you have to add points on too. The 1st Denver drive ended with a dropped TD. The 2nd drive ended with a dropped 3rd down conversion at midfield. I think it's fair to say that would on average add an extra 7 points to the board for Denver. So I thought the final score accurately told us how both sides of the ball performed. The offense was either brilliant or horrible with no in between, and the defense was disappointing against a below average Denver offense.

[JP51]

39 minutes ago, BillsShredder83 said:

I selected yes, but hard to seperate myself enough to say no bias there.  Out of all of the options I think he has the highest impact potential, a force multiplier.  Ive believed the defense is talented and we were getting nowhere near the results out of the group that we shouldve been.  Add in 2 consecutive, untapped, defense heavy drafts, and as far as potential to change the team--- I believe on paper he's above anyone else.

 

Basically, take the whole list, and project each selection to have the efficacy we are hoping they'll have.... and JL has more leverage to improve us than anyone else on that list

I agree that's why i picked him

42 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

I think we will know after week five as that schedule looks brutal, and even after those first two games against Houston/Detroit. That Houston defense and that Detroit offense. Then the Chargers, Patriots, and Rams...yikes! Just brutal for a new regime regardless of the players. 

I think you might have an indication but if its Leonhard gotta be deep into the winter before we know cause ultimately its gotta result in a playoff Defense 

[gordong]

Let you know after the year is over

[dave mcbride]

11 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I will say if you're going to take points off the board, you have to add points on too. The 1st Denver drive ended with a dropped TD. The 2nd drive ended with a dropped 3rd down conversion at midfield. I think it's fair to say that would on average add an extra 7 points to the board for Denver. So I thought the final score accurately told us how both sides of the ball performed. The offense was either brilliant or horrible with no in between, and the defense was disappointing against a below average Denver offense.

But doesn't that just illustrate that the Denver offense had issues? Sure, the Bills' D players were out of position by allowing those should-have-been catches to happen, but all the same subpar offenses tend to be mistake prone. It's like the Stevie Johnson drop against Pittsburgh -- yeah, Pittsburgh's D got burned, but the Bills' offensive players in the period always made mistakes on plays there for the taking, to the point where it was sort of hardwired into their DNA.  

[colin]

2 hours ago, sven233 said:

We have 6 Playoff losses since 2021.  In these games, McDermott's defenses have given up an average of 33 points per game.  We know this.  It is well documented that his defenses can't hold up against great QBs in the Playoffs.

 

If Leonhard can come in and just get that number to a respectable 23 PPG, I think you will see a big difference in the final results for this team.  You know how many of those 6 we would have lost giving up 23?  Just 1..... and that was the game against the Bengals where the team just didn't have anything left emotionally to give.  We would have 5 more Playoff wins and who knows what they would have led to.

 

I know 23 might seem like a tough number to shoot for, but with our offense and the addition of Moore and hopefully an extra 2 possessions per game because our defense can actually get off the field, maybe we could even give up 24-26 and still be OK.  Point is, our defense has been the main reason we haven't gotten to where we have wanted to get to.  Whether it be the total points given up in a game or not being able to get that 1 final stop needed after Allen gives us a lead with just a couple minutes remaining, the defense has been frustrating to say the least.  If Leonhard can just improve up in those 2 areas in the Playoffs, we'll have a chance.  If the offense can't get to 24 and we lose?  Then that will be a different conversation at that time, but I will take my chances with Allen to be able to get to that number when needed.

 

bill parcels used to say a champion ship defense gives up 17 points and a championship offense scores 24.

 

I think today, at least for the bills, we could say a championship defense gives up 24 and a championship offense scores 31.

 

the devil in the details, to me, is that if our d can get the opponents off the field quickly in the beginning of the game, we can get a lead and then lean on the run and force the opponent to pass late.  vs great qbs, they will still move the ball and score, but at that point you are in control of the game script and you can take risks on O or D, run more, etc to limit their posessions.  where we effed up last year is we actually did that in the beginning of games, and then were the ones passing late to win.  the d not being able to take full advantage of being one of the best opening drive scoring o's in the nfl might have cost us NE game 1, one of houston/atl on the road, and maybe even the 2nd miami game (we fall off hard and turned it over, but if we coulda stopped the run a bit early and taken them out of it, achane may not have eaten us).  those are 2 or 3 wins we need out of 4 winnable games that would have put us over the top and made us the 1 seed.

[BillsFan130]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The defense gave up 23 in regulation in Denver. Unfortunately the O had given up 6 too.

 

But I take the point. In principle you are not wrong.

At the end of the day, the number was 30 though. I do agree the offence was responsible for 6 of those points, but it evens out within the game. 

 

Example: Denver first drive- Guy drops a wide open pass in the endzone. That's a 4 point difference there as they had to settle for 3.

 

It all evens out. Offence put them in a couple bad spots, but defence also got lucky with some bad drops by Denver, including a wide open TD drop that I could have caught .

 

So if you do wanna play the "what if" game, then 28 points given up would be by far the most fair number IMO

Edited Monday at 07:29 PM by BillsFan130

[GunnerBill]

46 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I will say if you're going to take points off the board, you have to add points on too. The 1st Denver drive ended with a dropped TD. The 2nd drive ended with a dropped 3rd down conversion at midfield. I think it's fair to say that would on average add an extra 7 points to the board for Denver. So I thought the final score accurately told us how both sides of the ball performed. The offense was either brilliant or horrible with no in between, and the defense was disappointing against a below average Denver offense.

 

I don't think you do. The Bills defense did keep them to 23. In a lot of moments in that game the defense was not good. But it kept them to 23. That apparently is the magic formula. Except it isn't when the offense turns it over 4 times. 

 

I take the broader overall point and I don't disagree with it but nuance matters. The magic formula is score more than your opponents. 

[Orlando Buffalo]

2 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

There’s no Josh Allen or Myke’s Garrett in that list, so yes, our new DC will have the biggest impact - especially since he is changing the scheme so significantly. Good, bad or great, the impact will be big. I expect growing pains so how the defense looks later in the season will be much more telling. 

I was going to say something similar, outside of Myles Garrett for this team no individual player will improve us as much as Leonhard possibly could.