DJ Moore route tree and success the past two years

[Paup 1995MVP]

On 7/23/2026 at 5:20 AM, Kirby Jackson said:

I expect DJ Moore to be the best receiver that the Bills have had since Diggs. I bet him over 774.5 yards and feel pretty good about. He will win at all 3 levels.
 

I don’t expect him to be Ja’Marr Chase. He will be a top 25ish WR IMO and that’s a big step in the right direction. That’s way better than what the Bills have been working with. It feels reasonable to anticipate a year like Parker Washington or Jakobi Meyer’s had last year. Maybe he’s something like 60/850/6. He could certainly go over that. His stat projection has been a little all over to me. 

I value your opinion KJ.  Those numbers you mention are solid.  But those are not even pro bowl numbers.  

 

Who else do you see making strong contributions to the passing game?  We need some guys who can get down the field.  Need strong seasons from Shakir and Kincaid.  Also solid contribution from Coleman Palmer and Bell.  

 

Do you think Moore is capable of putting up 1998 Eric Moulds numbers ?  That is what I want to see from a Buffalo Bills WR.  Not expecting JSN or Puka Nakua.   But my goodness Josh deserves some studs to throw to.  

[H2o]

Him and Caleb didn't click. His numbers immediately dropped off as soon as Williams came into the equation. In 2023 he put up 1,300+ yards with Justin Fields and Tyson Bagent at QB and 8 TD's, and this is basically with no one else around him to draw attention. In steps Caleb Williams, who is erratic at best, and his numbers start to decline. Moore hasn't had any injuries really to speak of, he was just dramatically phased out. He went from 140 targets in 2024 to 85 in 2025. That's not because he lost his ability. Caleb also regressed last year from a completion percentage standpoint. One can probably ask how many of those 85 targets weren't even catchable to begin with. 

[colin]

1 hour ago, H2o said:

Him and Caleb didn't click. His numbers immediately dropped off as soon as Williams came into the equation. In 2023 he put up 1,300+ yards with Justin Fields and Tyson Bagent at QB and 8 TD's, and this is basically with no one else around him to draw attention. In steps Caleb Williams, who is erratic at best, and his numbers start to decline. Moore hasn't had any injuries really to speak of, he was just dramatically phased out. He went from 140 targets in 2024 to 85 in 2025. That's not because he lost his ability. Caleb also regressed last year from a completion percentage standpoint. One can probably ask how many of those 85 targets weren't even catchable to begin with. 

 

if allen gives dj 140 targets that's over 1100 yards based on allen's per attempt average last season.  considering dj has top 5 stats vs man and on deep passes over the past 3 to 5 years, and allen was targeting the shortest passes of his career last season (i think shakir's average depth was like 2 yards for the second half of the season), 140 DJ targets likely gets him 1400+ yards, which would put him in the top 3 last season.  i don't think he gets 140 targets, i think he gets a little north of 100, maybe 120ish, and i think he leads the team in targets, but i expect kinkaid right behind and shakir not far behind dalton.  if he gets 120 targets and like 1200 yards, he'd be just outside of the top 5 in production based on last year's stats.  

 

the only three guys who might have been available who have a similar skill set this offseason were waddle, aj brown, and BTJ.  BTJ was a one season wonder so far, and at his age/contract im assuming woulda cost a lot.  AJ brown was asking more than we wanted to pay, although that might be a miss considering what he cost new england, but there is the concern that he's physically washed a bit, along w his horrible attitude, and waddle has had bad production in lots of games (with some big explosives here and there), cost a 1st, and maybe was never available for the bills.  for the record, i'd have taken waddle for our 1 vs what we paid for dj moore, but it's kinda close.

 

 

[billsfan89]

1 hour ago, H2o said:

Him and Caleb didn't click. His numbers immediately dropped off as soon as Williams came into the equation. In 2023 he put up 1,300+ yards with Justin Fields and Tyson Bagent at QB and 8 TD's, and this is basically with no one else around him to draw attention. In steps Caleb Williams, who is erratic at best, and his numbers start to decline. Moore hasn't had any injuries really to speak of, he was just dramatically phased out. He went from 140 targets in 2024 to 85 in 2025. That's not because he lost his ability. Caleb also regressed last year from a completion percentage standpoint. One can probably ask how many of those 85 targets weren't even catchable to begin with. 

I wondered why Moore’s production fell off so much the past couple of seasons and the consensus just seems to be Moore didn’t click with Caleb and the offense under Ben Johnson was more balanced. He didn’t have any major injuries and he was still 27/28 not old at all.

 

I think he is going to be a big force for the offense there’s no reason for him not to be a 1k efficient WR this upcoming season.

[BillsShredder83]

11 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

I wondered why Moore’s production fell off so much the past couple of seasons and the consensus just seems to be Moore didn’t click with Caleb and the offense under Ben Johnson was more balanced. He didn’t have any major injuries and he was still 27/28 not old at all.

 

I think he is going to be a big force for the offense there’s no reason for him not to be a 1k efficient WR this upcoming season.

1. They drafted a Bilitnekoff winner in Odunze at #9  (2year ago) to share targets with. Keenan Allen in the mix too.

 

2.Luther Burden had a solid breakout year last year.

 

3. Coleston Loveland was 1st TE drafted, high too.

 

4. They've saturated that offense with playmakers amd decided to take on a run first/tough defense identity.

 

5.Caleb's been up and down, had a really rough rookie year.

 

Im actually of the belief that it's pretty amazing he put up the numbers he has the last 2 years in Chicago!!

 

We're gunna love this kid and in no way am I buying the kid is on a down trend. 

[NoSaint]

4 minutes ago, BillsShredder83 said:

1. They drafted a Bilitnekoff winner in Odunze at #9  (2year ago) to share targets with. Keenan Allen in the mix too.

 

2.Luther Burden had a solid breakout year last year.

 

3. Coleston Loveland was 1st TE drafted, high too.

 

4. They've saturated that offense with playmakers amd decided to take on a run first/tough defense identity.

 

5.Caleb's been up and down, had a really rough rookie year.

 

Im actually of the belief that it's pretty amazing he put up the numbers he has the last 2 years in Chicago!!

 

We're gunna love this kid and in no way am I buying the kid is on a down trend. 

this kid is 29 

 

is the 83 in your name your age when you registered? 

[YattaOkasan]

On 7/24/2026 at 1:46 PM, TheBrownBear said:

Moore was 12th in targets, but 29th in receiving yardage in 2024.  That's probably why they dialed him back and sought out different receiving options in '25. He seems to clearly be tracking downwards the past two seasons.  I seem him as being a similar addition as Amari Cooper was in 2024.  Hope I'm wrong, but my money would be on a 40-50 catch, 600 yards type of season (optimistic estimate is 65/800). 

Seems pretty clearly that year he wasnt targeted as deep that year and thus his yards were down (ADOT almost 4 yards lower than his career average otherwise).  Thats a VERY significant drop.  In 2025 his ADOT went back deeper but as hast been noted his catchable % was pretty poor (<60%). 

 

if you think he only has 40-50 catches then you think then you think hes only getting like 80 targets? I think your money take (you could put money on it so please dont say where your money would be, you either dont believe in betting or youre not being truthful) is the low end and your optimistic estimate is the middle of the range.  Not sure why you completely discount his experience producing for his new HC as well as the assets used (implies he'll get way more targets), but thats where the consensus puts the upper end of the range 1.1k. 

One very serious upward trend has been his QB rating when targeted as his last 3 seasons have been his highest.  Theres lots of ways to parse this but this pessimism is pretty funny. 

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MoorD.00.htm

https://medium.com/@screamingintothepit/the-dj-moore-trade-context-matters-3bf15457835f

On 7/27/2026 at 9:23 AM, billsfan89 said:

I wondered why Moore’s production fell off so much the past couple of seasons and the consensus just seems to be Moore didn’t click with Caleb and the offense under Ben Johnson was more balanced. He didn’t have any major injuries and he was still 27/28 not old at all.

 

I think he is going to be a big force for the offense there’s no reason for him not to be a 1k efficient WR this upcoming season.

2024 had a crazy change in his use.  Almost 4 yards lower ADOT than his career average!!!  2025 was caleb throwing the ball the same amount as 2024 but spread the ball to more receivers.  Spreading it out to more receivers could be a new HC not thinking much of him or just wanting something different out of WR.  

[Mikie2times]

On 7/26/2026 at 6:13 PM, Starr Almighty said:

Does Caleb make the occasional splash play Yes he does. But he's not even a top 10 QB in the league and here you are comparing him to Josh Allen. The guy completed 58% of his passes. Personally I think he sux. Let's see if he can grow into something.

 

Nobody in the NFL outside of Allen is making these throws. Lamar might not have to make them. Mahomes is not trying to get to those spots.  But he straight looks like Josh on some of these off balance or cross body downfield throws.  I'm surprised more people don't see it, but I think most the responses to that post thought this was more a talent comparison. He is not anywhere near Allen as far as the total package. My point was not to suggest such a thing.

 

The comparison is purely when it comes down to what he does off script and how he accomplishes it. I felt that way about him dating back to USC. He's just has this Allen like way of surviving in the pocket and then ripping you anywhere on the field. Somehow getting a cross body pass off that impossibly finds the perfect spot. These guys are best in that environment. If I need 15 yards on a broken play where you can't run (Lamar) and Josh is out, I'm going Williams all day.  

Edited July 28 by Mikie2times

[Sierra Foothills]

1 hour ago, Mikie2times said:

 

Nobody in the NFL outside of Allen is making these throws. Lamar might not have to make them. Mahomes is not trying to get to those spots.  But he straight looks like Josh on some of these off balance or cross body downfield throws.  I'm surprised more people don't see it, but I think most the responses to that post thought this was more a talent comparison. He is not anywhere near Allen as far as the total package. My point was not to suggest such a thing.

 

The comparison is purely when it comes down to what he does off script and how he accomplishes it. I felt that way about him dating back to USC. He's just has this Allen like way of surviving in the pocket and then ripping you anywhere on the field. Somehow getting a cross body pass off that impossibly finds the perfect spot. These guys are best in that environment. If I need 15 yards on a broken play where you can't run (Lamar) and Josh is out, I'm going Williams all day.  

 

No doubt that Josh and Caleb are the two most elite pure throwers in the NFL... there are definitely throws that only those two can make.

 

I don't think anyone's arguing against that.

 

[YoloinOhio]

 

[Big Turk]

I could care less...he has Allen throwing to him not some trash can.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

I agree with you…seemed like Ben knew he was leaving one way or the other and kinda phased him out then dj knew Ben knew he was leaving which led to a weird scenario 😂

 

 

Edited August 5 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[Shaw66]

DJ is mic'd up for session 4. DJ mic'd up.  It's pretty cool. 

 

First, he is a low-key dude. At one point he said he doesn't say much, so he doesn't know why he's mic'd up. 

 

The video is what's interesting, not the audio. First, he's smaller than I thought. Second, his cuts are beautiful. Two, three, even four changes of direction and speed before he's where he wants to be. He had a run after catch up the left sideline where he stopped dead as a defender blew by him, then accelerated for a few yards. 

 

Beat IGB and caught a shallow crosser, continued across the field and turned upfield. Along the way, he looked back at IGB and wiggled a finger, as if to say, "You ain't catching me."  

 

They showed him after practice, on one knee, maybe at the pylon on the goal line. He made some kind of noise, a bit of scream but it sounds like a whistle. After doing it three or four times, his kids, who are maybe four and two and who were someplace on the opposite sideline, way down on the other side of the 50, came running across the field to him. 

 

I think I'm really going to like this guy. 

[Nephilim17]

27 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

DJ is mic'd up for session 4. DJ mic'd up.  It's pretty cool. 

 

First, he is a low-key dude. At one point he said he doesn't say much, so he doesn't know why he's mic'd up. 

 

The video is what's interesting, not the audio. First, he's smaller than I thought. Second, his cuts are beautiful. Two, three, even four changes of direction and speed before he's where he wants to be. He had a run after catch up the left sideline where he stopped dead as a defender blew by him, then accelerated for a few yards. 

 

Beat IGB and caught a shallow crosser, continued across the field and turned upfield. Along the way, he looked back at IGB and wiggled a finger, as if to say, "You ain't catching me."  

 

They showed him after practice, on one knee, maybe at the pylon on the goal line. He made some kind of noise, a bit of scream but it sounds like a whistle. After doing it three or four times, his kids, who are maybe four and two and who were someplace on the opposite sideline, way down on the other side of the 50, came running across the field to him. 

 

I think I'm really going to like this guy. 

Love two things that aren't play related:

1. him saying he ain't got much to say
2. him calling his kids and wife his "batteries."

Talented, quiet, focused. A refreshing change for a number-one Bills receiver.

[Shaw66]

5 minutes ago, Nephilim17 said:

Love two things that aren't play related:

1. him saying he ain't got much to say
2. him calling his kids and wife his "batteries."

Talented, quiet, focused. A refreshing change for a number-one Bills receiver.

Yes, "Batteries" was really cool. 

 

I went to the University of Maryland. Loved having Diggs (also a Terp), but I'm already loving this Terp more.  DJ doesn't seem to be about drama at all. Just ball. 

[YoloinOhio]