DJ Moore route tree and success the past two years

[Mikie2times]

11 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

Very fair from an athleticism x arm talent x freelance standpoint. But is Williams an explosive downfield runner, though? Honest question. Allen has been such a unicorn in that way. Big, long runs. TDs from midfield ffs. Allen has been such a freak. And he's 4 inches taller than Williams, which bodes well for not needing to leave the pocket, and for longevity. True shame we didn't capitalize early on with such a freakish psycho at QB, right around the 2021 season in particular.  

 

10 hours ago, Victory Formation said:

I love his arm, but he is immobile.. Any team with some resemblance of a pass rush will drop him like a sack of potatoes..

He isn’t the runner. I said closest thing. Nobody is going to have all of it or any of it at the level Josh does. He’s also not immobile. That is laughable. 

[stlbills13]

Moore still has gas in the tank and he has motivation. He won't come here and put him prime Diggs numbers but as long as he's healthy he'll be a 1,000 yard and 7 TD guy who draws the opposing #1 CB

[2003Contenders]

The biggest issue with DJ Moore last season is that he was phased out of the play-calling in Chicago and only had 81 passes thrown his way. On those 81 targets he caught 50 of them for 682 yards and 6 TDs. So he was pretty good when he WAS targeted.

 

The premium receivers in the league last season (Nacua and JSN) accounted for double that number of targets. If you do double Moore's volume that places him on a pace of 100 receptions for 1364 yards and 12 TDs. Maybe not Nacua, JSN or Chase territory, but in the same spectrum as guys like Amon Ra and Olave.  That target range also happens to correlate to Diggs' consistent production as he had between 153 and 164 targets in each of his 4 years in Buffalo. Obviously that would represent the up-side of Moore's production as I doubt he sees the volume in this offense that a prime Diggs saw a number of years ago. Moore's own high-water mark was 162 targets back in 2021, so it is admittedly a stretch to believe that he could hit close to that mark in his age-30 season. 

 

In this offense last season, the top WR (Shakir) saw just 95 targets. The Bills wouldn't have invested a 2nd round pick on Moore if they weren't planning on using him, so I would expect well over that 95 target volume that Shakir led the team with last year. For his career, Moore has book-ended his rookie season with 82 targets and 81 last season -- but has otherwise been well north of the 100 target range in each of his other 2019-2024 seasons with target totals of 135, 118, 162, 115, 136, and 140 respectively. If we split the difference between last year's 81 target low-point and his 162 career high, then we're looking at somewhere in the range of, say, 120 targets. Based on last year's productivity that would place Moore in pace for 74 receptions, 1010 yards and about 9TDs, which I think is a reasonable projection for him in 2026.

 

I caveat that, of course, with saying that this is based on him staying healthy. That's also one of the overlooked factors regarding Moore: his availability, as he has missed remarkably little playing time in his career. Also, he is a threat in the running game as well: he ran the ball 15 times last season for 79 yards and a TD. I imagine that Brady will want to make ample use of that skill set.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

I am not surprised by these stats. 
 

I like Beane, but he doesn’t have a good track record of identifying receiver talent.  Hope he proves us wrong with Moore. 

[Ballhawk]

For me it's relative, the question is "Do I feel better with DJ Moore as the starting X receiver going into 2026 than I did with Kean Coleman as the starting X receiver going into 2025..."

Easy answer there, if Moore regains his old form that's just gravy. Also, I am ok with him serving as a decoy, I'm convinced Diggs' last year that's all he was.

Edited July 23 by Ballhawk

[colin]

i think he and shakir and dalton are all going to flirt with 1k yards, 100 targets, 8TDs.  injuries, game plan stuff, someone else stepping up, and slight scheme stuff will alter this, but i think it's in the cards for all of them.  making a hard guess now, i figure dj goes a bit over, say 130 targets, 1250, 11tds.  he along w dalton (who had freaking 49 targets all last season) will be our man beaters. 

[BillsShredder83]

6 hours ago, Billy Claude said:

 

Hasn't the same thing been said about pretty much every WR that the Bills have brought in over the last four or five years?  As it turned out it really didn't matter that much, they pretty much were who they were before coming to the Bills.

 

We havent brought in anyone in remotely the same stratosphere as DJ Moore.  The disrespect I see around his name here is craaaaazyyyyy.  He's got bad team syndrome.  Where he's spent his whole career on 2 abysmal franchises.... no primetime games. Ugly record. Getting the ick, from the 2 logos hes most associated with.

 

I cant wait to watch everyone here find out who DJ Moore is.  It's going to be like Diggs lite.  Remember he came here as a intriguing player that people thought "ahhh  that could be cool."  Most didn't anticipate "Triple Crown Threat" Diggs, in the initial trade.

 

DJ is a bit older, so it's going to be a lighter version of that, but people are going to be laughing at their initial takes on the player.  He's been Iron-Man, Super Consistent, annual 1k guy.  Someone that DC's must spend significant time and resources into trying to shut down... they still arent going to be able to... and everyone else is going to be running around the field like Pacman as a result.

 

His down year last year was a Caleb Williams "stat", and indicative of a hard nosed defense/ run the ball identity.  Hard to support him & Odunze with all that going on.

[SoonerBillsFan]

18 hours ago, DJB said:

Take this for what you will. Personally in my opinion Moore was phased out of the offence and used more as a decoy. 
 

I think he will be motivated and he still has the juice . Im excited for him 

Crap QB's and used as a Decoy as you said last year.  This guy will make his detractors eat major crow.

[Buffalo716]

I think a lot of bills fans need to have realistic expectations 

 

If you read through some of this thread some would act like we're getting a top 10 bona fide elite wide receiver 

 

He is better than what we have and should help Josh Allen but we need to be realistic 

 

He's probably 26 the best wide receiver in the NFL.. low low tier number one x... I expect around 1,100 yd that would be a good year 

 

That's what the bills need.. I don't think we're going to get a 1400 yd guy

 

Hes gonna be a help to Josh but we didn't bring in a guy who is gonna all pro.. realistically he might not even pro bowl 

 

We just need someone to be consistent when given the chance 

Edited July 23 by Buffalo716

[Buffalo716]

1 hour ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

Crap QB's and used as a Decoy as you said last year.  This guy will make his detractors eat major crow.

 

He's also going into year 9 and every player loses a step.. he's better than what we have and he's going to help Josh he's not a top 15 wide receiver in the world anymore 

 

If we can get a guy who gets us 1100 yd and is consistent that's what the bills need 

 

A legitimate number one wouldn't be getting phased out because of Rome odunze honestly.. DJ is a good wide receiver who is at the back half of his last three good years left

 

That's why he's getting phased out he's 29 in a position that probably peaks typically at 26 27 or 28..he's at the last year of his prime..  he's got two or three productive years left and we're not talking 1500 yards

 

 

Edited July 23 by Buffalo716

[Sierra Foothills]

14 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

I think a lot of bills fans need to have realistic expectations 

 

If you read through some of this thread some would act like we're getting a top 10 bona fide elite wide receiver 

 

He is better than what we have and should help Josh Allen but we need to be realistic 

 

He's probably 26 the best wide receiver in the NFL.. low low tier number one x... I expect around 1,100 yd that would be a good year 

 

That's what the bills need.. I don't think we're going to get a 1400 yd guy

 

Hes gonna be a help to Josh but we didn't bring in a guy who is gonna all pro.. realistically he might not even pro bowl 

 

We just need someone to be consistent when given the chance 

 

You must be talking about a different topic.

 

Four posters in this topic predicted DJ to get 1000 yards.

 

One poster went as high as 1250 yards and another one was in the 800 yard range.

 

Edited July 23 by Sierra Foothills

[Billy Claude]

2 hours ago, BillsShredder83 said:

We havent brought in anyone in remotely the same stratosphere as DJ Moore.  The disrespect I see around his name here is craaaaazyyyyy.  He's got bad team syndrome.  Where he's spent his whole career on 2 abysmal franchises.... no primetime games. Ugly record. Getting the ick, from the 2 logos hes most associated with.

 

I cant wait to watch everyone here find out who DJ Moore is.  It's going to be like Diggs lite.  Remember he came here as a intriguing player that people thought "ahhh  that could be cool."  Most didn't anticipate "Triple Crown Threat" Diggs, in the initial trade.

 

DJ is a bit older, so it's going to be a lighter version of that, but people are going to be laughing at their initial takes on the player.  He's been Iron-Man, Super Consistent, annual 1k guy.  Someone that DC's must spend significant time and resources into trying to shut down... they still arent going to be able to... and everyone else is going to be running around the field like Pacman as a result.

 

His down year last year was a Caleb Williams "stat", and indicative of a hard nosed defense/ run the ball identity.  Hard to support him & Odunze with all that going on.

 

I don't think the DJ Moore situation is at all comparable to Stefon Diggs.

 

Diggs was clearly trending upwards before the trade. He his last two seasons were his best in Minnesota (63/1130/17.9  and 102/1021/10.0).  He also made one of the most memorable catches of that decade in playoffs.

 

By contrast, DJ Moore has been trending in the opposite direction. His last two seasons were among his worse (50/682/13.6 and 98/966/9.9).

 

Those numbers are the opposite a receiver building momentum the way Diggs was before changing teams. Instead just like Curtis Samuel and Amari Cooper, the Bills are hoping that Moore bucks the trend of his most recent seasons.  

 

 

Edited July 23 by Billy Claude

[Buffalo716]

4 minutes ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

You must be talking about a different topic.

 

Four posters in this topic predicted DJ to get 1000 yards.

 

One poster went as high as 1250 yards and another one was in the 800 yard range.

 

 

That's true

 

I think I'm probably confusing this with the original DJ Moore thread when we traded for him

 

Which had some people who had the opinion he was a Top 15-20 guy

 

I think he solid and gonna help a lot .. id have him prolly 25-30 but I like his skill set

 

 

 

 

[kitchen sink]

I trust the Bills coaching staff and front office far more than any of these parasitic talking heads looking for the most flamboyant things to write about to get clicks. 

[White Linen]

14 hours ago, Billy Claude said:

 

Hasn't the same thing been said about pretty much every WR that the Bills have brought in over the last four or five years?  As it turned out it really didn't matter that much, they pretty much were who they were before coming to the Bills.

 

 

Yes and you're making my point for me.  Moore is a fantastic WR and will be here.

[Allen2Moulds]

7 hours ago, Billy Claude said:

 

I don't think the DJ Moore situation is at all comparable to Stefon Diggs.

 

Diggs was clearly trending upwards before the trade. He his last two seasons were his best in Minnesota (63/1130/17.9  and 102/1021/10.0).  He also made one of the most memorable catches of that decade in playoffs.

 

By contrast, DJ Moore has been trending in the opposite direction. His last two seasons were among his worse (50/682/13.6 and 98/966/9.9).

 

Those numbers are the opposite a receiver building momentum the way Diggs was before changing teams. Instead just like Curtis Samuel and Amari Cooper, the Bills are hoping that Moore bucks the trend of his most recent seasons.  

 

 

Except that Diggs would disappear in the playoffs.  I don't think we can debate that.  The playoffs is a more physical brand of football, and Diggs slender build would hurt him come playoff time.  No doubt Diggs was the superior player in the regular season, but he also benefitted from having a great QB.  Even if DJ has a similar regular season that he did last year, he was at least impactful in the playoffs.  Most likely scenario, is that he ends up with 900-1100 yds this season.

[Ayjent]

Regardless of what his final stats are, if he is an upgrade to what the team had last year outside and makes opposing teams respect the boundary it is going to be a better situation for Josh and the pass rushes he faces.  That was the point of the trade and I think it will work out in that respect even if the numbers aren't huge for Moore.

Edited July 24 by Ayjent

[colin]

i think there is a meaningful discussion to be had with what one wants out of a wide receiver (or a pass rusher for that matter, i see the two positions as quite equivalent for the O and the D).  we paid a hefty sum for DJ, a bit more than pittman, a bit less than waddle.  you can only compare what was potentially available rather than what some guy who signed a contract 3 years ago and 35% lower cap is getting.  we basically kept his contract but restructured it to be more guaranteed and a lower initial cap hit.  i heard we were also looking into aj brown, but the cost was too much (at the end of the day he didn't trade for that much, so perhaps the price fell as the draft passed simply because he couldn't be traded for a pick in a draft that had already happened).  i don't think dj is going to be a many small target high production due to volume guy for us and be a meaningful addition, not unless our total passing numbers take a big leap.

 

i see pittman as a volume production guy, lots of smaller plays.  i think it was the right decision to not get him for us because he'd do basically what one of our TEs or shakir does -- shorter routes, finding holes vs zone, etc.  

 

i think waddle has a higher threat level than moore.  he's a crazy burner and a very smooth runner.  he was taken super early for a reason.  he does totally vanish tho, and rather than pick up more targets and catches as hill was injured, his productivity fell off hard, but that team was a tire fire.

 

brady has a personal relationship w dj, and was with him during his most productive years.  his drop in production is concerning, and he's not at the level of a chase or jsn, or even a london IMO, but by the metrics he's a top 5 deep pass threat and man beater, by efficiency, over the past 5 years or so.

 

if dj can improve our passing game vs man coverage, and increase our depth of target efficiency i'll say he was a good signing.  i think he'll need to have above career average production to do that, which would be like 1100 yards.  i said before i expect like 1200 from him, but to me as a fan him threatening and scoring/leading to scores on passes that beat coverage deep and especially vs man/press man in the playoffs is the kind of binary measure of if he's a good signing or not.

 

we are going to be in houston week one, so that's a tremendous test.  if they go press man and we can be balanced and use him to beat that coverage (even if he's not always the target) and run vs the lighter boxes that kind of coverage will leave us, then i think that's a great sign.  if josh has another total stinker vs houston and we look roughly the same, it won't be a good omen. 

 

 

[sven233]

The Bears slowly phased Moore out of the offense the last couple years with the additions of the young WRs and, of course, Caleb Williams who is not the best QB in the world.  However, what I found interesting is that when it was nut cutting time in the Playoffs, who's the guy that they turned to in the most critical situations?  Who's the WR that made the big catches when needed?  It was Moore and I think that just goes to show you that there is still more there with him that what Chicago put on tape the last couple seasons.  I think Moore comes in and leads in target share and yardage by a comfortable amount this year.  I'm not saying prime Diggs numbers, but I don't think 85 catches and 1100 yards is out of the question.

Edited July 24 by sven233

[RyanC883]

Moore is on the best offense he has ever been on, with the best QB he ever had, perhaps best RB also, and he seems super motivated.  Big year from him.  Perhaps not big numbers, put he will be available to produce and will produce when needed.  Just a lot of other guys (Kincaid) who will get targets.  If we stay healthy, I expect a historic year scoring wise.    

39 minutes ago, Ayjent said:

Regardless of what his final stats are, if he is an upgrade to what the team had last year outside and makes opposing teams respect the boundary it is going to be a better situation for Josh and the pass rushes he faces.  That was the point of the trade and I think it will work out in that respect even if the numbers aren't huge for Moore.

totally agree.  Numbers won't tell the whole story of how valuable Moore will be.