Yeah, Im a Homer, but National Media bias can be ridiculous..

[Rich Stadium Original]

This article is from NYTimes/athletic giving their assessment on the Vegas over/under.

Ive edited it to a comparison between the Ravens and the Bills reviews.

He is not really concerned with Ravens new head coach, but thinks "Bills are going to regret replacing Sean McDermott with Brady".

Also thinks Jackson as one of the top 5 QBs in the league is very important,  but never even MENTIONS that #17 guy for the Bills...

Yes, the schedule is tough, but he finishes his comments by saying DJ Moore will be a bust, too, as the Bills have never been good at acquiring wide receivers....except he seemed to forget about that Diggs guy.

Seems like too often folks create "facts" to support conclusions they have drawn rather than assess facts to draw a conclusion.

 

 

AFC

Ravens over 11.5 (+115)

This seems like a big number with new coach Jesse Minter inheriting some old, squeaky parts. But Lamar Jackson is still a top-five quarterback, and last I checked, QBs are pretty important. He has a new coordinator, but that’s never affected Jackson before. The offense is going to score points (get Zay Flowers in fantasy) and Trey Hendrickson will give the defense a boost.

 

 

Bills under 10.5 (+120)

The Bills are going to regret replacing Sean McDermott with Joe Brady, and right out of the chute, too, with their first five games coming against the Texans, Lions, Chargers, Patriots and Rams. They also have a tough holiday stretch, with games on both Thanksgiving and Christmas sandwiched around road games against the Patriots and Packers and a home game against the Bears.

I will be wrong if new receiver DJ Moore clicks (and if they ever find a decent off-ball linebacker), but there is nothing in Moore’s resume or the Bills’ history of acquiring receivers to suggest that will be the case.

[Sierra Foothills]

For those with access:

 

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7450525/2026/07/17/nfl-win-totals-bets-predictions-2026/

 

The writer is Vic Tafur.

 

[QCity]

Reasoning aside, those Bills odds align with Vegas oddsmakers (Caesars u10.5 +118).

[Hermes]

25 minutes ago, Rich Stadium Original said:

This article is from NYTimes/athletic giving their assessment on the Vegas over/under.

Ive edited it to a comparison between the Ravens and the Bills reviews.

He is not really concerned with Ravens new head coach, but thinks "Bills are going to regret replacing Sean McDermott with Brady".

Also thinks Jackson as one of the top 5 QBs in the league is very important,  but never even MENTIONS that #17 guy for the Bills...

Yes, the schedule is tough, but he finishes his comments by saying DJ Moore will be a bust, too, as the Bills have never been good at acquiring wide receivers....except he seemed to forget about that Diggs guy.

Seems like too often folks create "facts" to support conclusions they have drawn rather than assess facts to draw a conclusion.

 

 

AFC

Ravens over 11.5 (+115)

This seems like a big number with new coach Jesse Minter inheriting some old, squeaky parts. But Lamar Jackson is still a top-five quarterback, and last I checked, QBs are pretty important. He has a new coordinator, but that’s never affected Jackson before. The offense is going to score points (get Zay Flowers in fantasy) and Trey Hendrickson will give the defense a boost.

 

 

Bills under 10.5 (+120)

The Bills are going to regret replacing Sean McDermott with Joe Brady, and right out of the chute, too, with their first five games coming against the Texans, Lions, Chargers, Patriots and Rams. They also have a tough holiday stretch, with games on both Thanksgiving and Christmas sandwiched around road games against the Patriots and Packers and a home game against the Bears.

I will be wrong if new receiver DJ Moore clicks (and if they ever find a decent off-ball linebacker), but there is nothing in Moore’s resume or the Bills’ history of acquiring receivers to suggest that will be the case.

 

Here's the thing, Draftkings (et al).

 

Let's say some percentage of people see and are influenced by this, then they bet on what these prognasticators say. The house gets a bigger take, and one hand washes the other. Therefore it's in ESPNs best interest to promote these takes and get a nice cut from the sports books. Just my $0.02

[Steve Billieve]

If anything I think we've under performed the narrative. Us and like three over teams are perennial superbowl favorites.

[Doc Brown]

38 minutes ago, Rich Stadium Original said:

Bills under 10.5 (+120)

The Bills are going to regret replacing Sean McDermott with Joe Brady, and right out of the chute, too, with their first five games coming against the Texans, Lions, Chargers, Patriots and Rams. They also have a tough holiday stretch, with games on both Thanksgiving and Christmas sandwiched around road games against the Patriots and Packers and a home game against the Bears.

I will be wrong if new receiver DJ Moore clicks (and if they ever find a decent off-ball linebacker), but there is nothing in Moore’s resume or the Bills’ history of acquiring receivers to suggest that will be the case.

The McDermott firing regret makes sense from a regular season over/under total wins prediction given he's never had less than 11 wins since Allen became elite in 2020.  However, the worst Brady can do is not win a Super Bowl which is exactly what McDermott did every year as head coach and was the reason he got fired.  It's the harsh reality of a zero sum league.

Edited July 20 by Doc Brown

[FLFan]

It is a lazy, uninformed analysis by a West Coast guy who focuses on the 49rs and the NFC West.  Perhaps he is applying for the role of chief Lamar fluffer now that Ryan Clark has been tossed aside by ESPN.  

[SoonerBillsFan]

44 minutes ago, Rich Stadium Original said:

This article is from NYTimes/athletic giving their assessment on the Vegas over/under.

Ive edited it to a comparison between the Ravens and the Bills reviews.

He is not really concerned with Ravens new head coach, but thinks "Bills are going to regret replacing Sean McDermott with Brady".

Also thinks Jackson as one of the top 5 QBs in the league is very important,  but never even MENTIONS that #17 guy for the Bills...

Yes, the schedule is tough, but he finishes his comments by saying DJ Moore will be a bust, too, as the Bills have never been good at acquiring wide receivers....except he seemed to forget about that Diggs guy.

Seems like too often folks create "facts" to support conclusions they have drawn rather than assess facts to draw a conclusion.

 

 

AFC

Ravens over 11.5 (+115)

This seems like a big number with new coach Jesse Minter inheriting some old, squeaky parts. But Lamar Jackson is still a top-five quarterback, and last I checked, QBs are pretty important. He has a new coordinator, but that’s never affected Jackson before. The offense is going to score points (get Zay Flowers in fantasy) and Trey Hendrickson will give the defense a boost.

 

 

Bills under 10.5 (+120)

The Bills are going to regret replacing Sean McDermott with Joe Brady, and right out of the chute, too, with their first five games coming against the Texans, Lions, Chargers, Patriots and Rams. They also have a tough holiday stretch, with games on both Thanksgiving and Christmas sandwiched around road games against the Patriots and Packers and a home game against the Bears.

I will be wrong if new receiver DJ Moore clicks (and if they ever find a decent off-ball linebacker), but there is nothing in Moore’s resume or the Bills’ history of acquiring receivers to suggest that will be the case.

I put it in the "Who cares" column along with those lauding Josh Allen saying he is the #1 QB.  Dont get me wrong many in the fanbase love that stuff, but I am nearly 60, and have been a fan for 40 years. All I care about is a SuperBowl win.  

[Low Positive]

Outside of Bills Mafia, the team looks crazy for firing a coach after an 11-win season and a playoff win. Then they kept the GM who yells at radio guys and the owner had that presser. The Bills being a trainwreck of an organization, coupled with the rise of the Pats, seems like a predictable return to the comfortable norm to every other fan except for us, and it's something that the writers are trying to speak into existence. I'm not saying that I agree, but that's how it plays outside of our bubble. The Ravens get the national benefit of the doubt for making similar moves because they have been a model organization since moving from Cleveland. Pretty simple. Actually, the Bills collapsing will be a popular take over the next month as these season predictions get released. I think it will be a pretty universal thing, and it will only get louder if they start 0-2. 

[Dr. Who]

30 minutes ago, Low Positive said:

Outside of Bills Mafia, the team looks crazy for firing a coach after an 11-win season and a playoff win. Then they kept the GM who yells at radio guys and the owner had that presser. The Bills being a trainwreck of an organization, coupled with the rise of the Pats, seems like a predictable return to the comfortable norm to every other fan except for us, and it's something that the writers are trying to speak into existence. I'm not saying that I agree, but that's how it plays outside of our bubble. The Ravens get the national benefit of the doubt for making similar moves because they have been a model organization since moving from Cleveland. Pretty simple. Actually, the Bills collapsing will be a popular take over the next month as these season predictions get released. I think it will be a pretty universal thing, and it will only get louder if they start 0-2. 

Maybe. Did @Ethan in Cleveland hack your account?

[PromoTheRobot]

At least the Athletic has local writers. Most national talking head types barely have an idea what most teams are up to.

[MJS]

2 hours ago, Low Positive said:

Outside of Bills Mafia, the team looks crazy for firing a coach after an 11-win season and a playoff win. Then they kept the GM who yells at radio guys and the owner had that presser. The Bills being a trainwreck of an organization, coupled with the rise of the Pats, seems like a predictable return to the comfortable norm to every other fan except for us, and it's something that the writers are trying to speak into existence. I'm not saying that I agree, but that's how it plays outside of our bubble. The Ravens get the national benefit of the doubt for making similar moves because they have been a model organization since moving from Cleveland. Pretty simple. Actually, the Bills collapsing will be a popular take over the next month as these season predictions get released. I think it will be a pretty universal thing, and it will only get louder if they start 0-2. 

The national media has been fairly positive about the Bills, and there is no reason to believe they will change course.

Edited July 21 by MJS

[4merper4mer]

2 hours ago, Rich Stadium Original said:

This article is from NYTimes/athletic giving their assessment on the Vegas over/under.

Ive edited it to a comparison between the Ravens and the Bills reviews.

He is not really concerned with Ravens new head coach, but thinks "Bills are going to regret replacing Sean McDermott with Brady".

Also thinks Jackson as one of the top 5 QBs in the league is very important,  but never even MENTIONS that #17 guy for the Bills...

Yes, the schedule is tough, but he finishes his comments by saying DJ Moore will be a bust, too, as the Bills have never been good at acquiring wide receivers....except he seemed to forget about that Diggs guy.

Seems like too often folks create "facts" to support conclusions they have drawn rather than assess facts to draw a conclusion.

 

 

AFC

Ravens over 11.5 (+115)

This seems like a big number with new coach Jesse Minter inheriting some old, squeaky parts. But Lamar Jackson is still a top-five quarterback, and last I checked, QBs are pretty important. He has a new coordinator, but that’s never affected Jackson before. The offense is going to score points (get Zay Flowers in fantasy) and Trey Hendrickson will give the defense a boost.

 

 

Bills under 10.5 (+120)

The Bills are going to regret replacing Sean McDermott with Joe Brady, and right out of the chute, too, with their first five games coming against the Texans, Lions, Chargers, Patriots and Rams. They also have a tough holiday stretch, with games on both Thanksgiving and Christmas sandwiched around road games against the Patriots and Packers and a home game against the Bears.

I will be wrong if new receiver DJ Moore clicks (and if they ever find a decent off-ball linebacker), but there is nothing in Moore’s resume or the Bills’ history of acquiring receivers to suggest that will be the case.

I Diggs the comment about the Bills never succeeding after acquiring a receiver.  Good take.

[billsbackto81]

To regret getting rid of a HC who admittedly was great during the regular season but always folded in the biggest games is hard work indeed. A defensive whiz not being able to hold a 3pt lead with 13 seconds left. Not giving Safety help to backups CBs when 2 starting CBs get hurt allowing 2 TDs in both instances. Sure, bad luck and suspect officiating played a part as well but let's face it, it wasn't getting done with McD.

 

Honestly imo, Brady can do no worse.

[Augie]

 

They would much rather be ridiculous than ignored. That’s why they are ridiculous. It’s also why I ignore them. 

[Utah John]

It's all up in the air.  If the defense gets better than last year and Josh stays healthy, I think the Bills make the SB.  If the defense continues to fail, or if Josh misses games, they could miss the playoffs.  It's a tough league to figure out ahead of the actual games.  

[machine gun kelly]

7 hours ago, MJS said:

The national media has been fairly positive about the Bills, and there is no reason to believe they will change course.

This article screams of hot take artist.  Since 2020, we have ranged from 11-13 wins each years.  If you add 2019 then 10-6.  I’ll contend not because I’m a Homer, but looking at the talent and infusion of a different coaching style of again 11-13 wins this year.  We’re not playing a 1st place schedule.  Heck I was listening to MTC guys in the last week and they predict a setback for the Cheats.  Jacob Hester and Pat Kirwan suggested a 9 to 10 win season for the Pats.

 

Whiles I’ve been slow to come around, but here now is this coaching staff is modeled after a Sean Payton run team.  I love Payton, and he’s modeled after one of my favorites in Bill Parcells.  Parcells was a coaching genius.   One of the best to lead a team and turned basically every team around.  The Giants, Jets, Patriots, and even the Cowboys.  He became sick of Jerrah’s meddling or probably would’ve taken them further.

 

This is one of the most interesting seasons in a decade as the change in strategy on defense to an attacking style, and on offense Brady now unleashed we’ll find out if Brady was held back or restrained, or was a coaching style of his making.  I’m very hopeful we’ll open it us and let Josh be Josh.  I like our running game, but the run on 1st every play was to an extreme.  But just as Daboll almost always threw on 1st down.  My point is just become so unpredictable that opposing DC’s have no clue what Brady is cooking up.

 

Brady has a building reputation when he was in the SEC, and even at the Panthers of using his players to their best skill sets.  It’s also pretty apparent we leaned into the run game as even they knew the pass catchers were not top notch.

[Don Otreply]

11 hours ago, Sierra Foothills said:

For those with access:

 

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7450525/2026/07/17/nfl-win-totals-bets-predictions-2026/

 

The writer is Vic Tafur.

 

I had a Tafur once, a couple rounds of antibiotics took care of it, 

[Chandler#81]

Keenan Allen, anyone?😳

 

 

[PatsFanNH]

13 hours ago, Rich Stadium Original said:

This article is from NYTimes/athletic giving their assessment on the Vegas over/under.

Ive edited it to a comparison between the Ravens and the Bills reviews.

He is not really concerned with Ravens new head coach, but thinks "Bills are going to regret replacing Sean McDermott with Brady".

Also thinks Jackson as one of the top 5 QBs in the league is very important,  but never even MENTIONS that #17 guy for the Bills...

Yes, the schedule is tough, but he finishes his comments by saying DJ Moore will be a bust, too, as the Bills have never been good at acquiring wide receivers....except he seemed to forget about that Diggs guy.

Seems like too often folks create "facts" to support conclusions they have drawn rather than assess facts to draw a conclusion.

 

 

AFC

Ravens over 11.5 (+115)

This seems like a big number with new coach Jesse Minter inheriting some old, squeaky parts. But Lamar Jackson is still a top-five quarterback, and last I checked, QBs are pretty important. He has a new coordinator, but that’s never affected Jackson before. The offense is going to score points (get Zay Flowers in fantasy) and Trey Hendrickson will give the defense a boost.

 

 

Bills under 10.5 (+120)

The Bills are going to regret replacing Sean McDermott with Joe Brady, and right out of the chute, too, with their first five games coming against the Texans, Lions, Chargers, Patriots and Rams. They also have a tough holiday stretch, with games on both Thanksgiving and Christmas sandwiched around road games against the Patriots and Packers and a home game against the Bears.

I will be wrong if new receiver DJ Moore clicks (and if they ever find a decent off-ball linebacker), but there is nothing in Moore’s resume or the Bills’ history of acquiring receivers to suggest that will be the case.

Weird, correct me if I’m wrong didn’t Lamar Jackson miss significant time last year do to injury?  So isn’t he assuming Lamar is going to stay healthy this year? I love Flowers but I am biased I loved him when he was at BC and was the entire offense… but he has fumbling issues because he tries to do to much. Also why wouldn’t a new OC affect Lamar? It does every other QB in the league? 
 

Now the Bills have a top 2 QB in the NFL most have ranked as one of the. Love or hate Moore (I think the Bills overpaid) he is an upgrade for WR 1.  The D was surprisingly good (especially if you listen to people here) being ranked 12th in scoring O.. but did the Bills do enough to fix the run D which was ranked 30th overall. (The pass D was elite at rank 2) I’d go over 10.5 and say they have 12 wins..