Bill Barnwell’s annual how many first round picks would it take article

[BillyJoeBills]

Initially, I thought 7 first rounders was too steep but looking at that list of Jets QBs, it looks a very good deal if an Allen was available back in 2013.  Jets cost:

Sam Darnold pick 3- worth 2-3 1st rounders

Zach Wilson pick 2- worth 2-3 1st rounders

Aaron Rodgers: cost them one 1st rounder and 1 second rounder

Geno Smith, Hackenberg: total cost was 2 2nd rounders

Bryce Petty, James Morgan: total cost was 2 4th rounders

Justin Fields: forfeited 4th rd comp pick

Fitzpatrick, Boyd, Travis: each were 5th rounds and after

 

When you add up all the value and costs, 7 first rounders for a Josh Allen qb who’ll be around for 15-20 years looks like a bargain

 

 

[BillsShredder83]

On 7/16/2026 at 12:15 PM, H2o said:

Even though he has JA17 listed as worth seven 1st's, I still wouldn't do it if the opportunity was on the table. 

For fun: What about picks #1 - #7 picks of the first round (but you can't trade out, 7 picks at podium)? Emotionally? No.  Would a team have to seriously consider it, certainly.

[H2o]

39 minutes ago, BillsShredder83 said:

For fun: What about picks #1 - #7 picks of the first round (but you can't trade out, 7 picks at podium)? Emotionally? No.  Would a team have to seriously consider it, certainly.

But are you gtd an all-time great QB in those picks? No. That's an easy pass from me. 

[NeverOutNick]

On 7/16/2026 at 12:15 PM, H2o said:

Even though he has JA17 listed as worth seven 1st's, I still wouldn't do it if the opportunity was on the table. 

Agreed! He’s one of the rare players that is priceless/untradable  

[Buffalo716]

I mean people are going to scoff at 7 

 

But literally that's probably what it would take and that's why Josh isn't going anywhere.. not getting traded for four first round picks 

 

Nobody has the ammunition to trade for Superman

[Mr. WEO]

5 hours ago, NoSaint said:

theyd have an mvp qb and be looking to draft an edge and corner on day two. 
 

wait, who just drafted an edge and corner on day two?!?

 

alas it’s near semantics on the terms at this point on a make believe debate- I think the point landed and just agree to disagree about agreeing to disagree agreeably

 

The Browns just drafted and edge and CB on day 2?

 

Browns best 2nd round pick, maybe ever, is Nick Chubb.  but suddenly they are going to find Garrett's replacement on future day 2's?  Sure, why not?

 

5 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I look at it like “trading for Josh adds 6 or 7 wins. Gutting your defensive stars subtracts 2 or 3.” Would you trade 3 firsts for 3 to 5 more wins? I think most teams would assuming it solves QB. You keep throwing bodies at the rest of the roster and hope to find guys starting caliber players even if they’re worse than Ward/Garrett. 

 

Mortgage the future to get 8ish wins a year?  What would be the point?  The Browns are an organization that, last year, while still massively overpaying long ago  flash in the pan Deshawn Watson, decided to flesh out the QB with not 1 but 2 bums in Sanders and Gabriel. 

 

Their body throwing technique is the worst in the NFL.

 

 

5 hours ago, ***** said:

I would never even consider it.  Allen is worth WAAAYYYYY more than draft picks.  
 

id need 3-4 all pro caliber players AND 3-4 high picks to even CONSIDER trading him.  He’s that good/important to our success 

 

In Cleveland, Josh would be a Rolls Royce hood ornament on a Chrysler 200....

[The Jokeman]

I mean where in the first round are said picks? If it's seven top 5 picks as could have a devastating pass rush and above average QB, RB and top tier tackle and a pair of good WRs. As good as Josh is we've seen he alone hasn't gotten us a ring. 

[Buffalo Junction]

10 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Barnwell lists other top player trades that have happened, pointing out that perhaps the second best player in the NFL (Garrett) brought 3 1st round picks.  Then he says he is going to be "conservative" in his following hypotheticals.  Then he says Josh would go for 7 1st round picks.  Ok.  I guess, sure why not?  He doesn't say how he lept from 3 1's for Garrett to 7 for Allen.  His claim that a team would give 6 1's for Maye eliminates any credibility to this thought exercise.

 

The Browns may have traded the 3 1s they got for Garrett and another to make 4 I guess.   Even if it was possible, no team would give up that amount of capital for one player.  Risk is too high.  An injury could wipe out the franchise for years--especially true for the Browns (or Jets), the ownership and management being so awful, they could never recover.  

I think the point is that getting a team to give up a franchise QB like Allen or Mahomes would cost an asinine amount that’s too high risk for either GM to take. Where I disagree with the Maye take is that acquiring JA17 basically insures those return picks aren’t top-5 or maybe top-10 on the worst of teams - which guarantees he won’t be replaced without using at least half those picks - I’m not sure that Maye could guarantee those victories to validate 6 firsts. 

[NoSaint]

1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

The Browns just drafted and edge and CB on day 2?

 

Browns best 2nd round pick, maybe ever, is Nick Chubb.  but suddenly they are going to find Garrett's replacement on future day 2's?  Sure, why not?

 

 

Mortgage the future to get 8ish wins a year?  What would be the point?  The Browns are an organization that, last year, while still massively overpaying long ago  flash in the pan Deshawn Watson, decided to flesh out the QB with not 1 but 2 bums in Sanders and Gabriel. 

 

Their body throwing technique is the worst in the NFL.

 

 

 

In Cleveland, Josh would be a Rolls Royce hood ornament on a Chrysler 200....

quit being a doofus. I say that with endearingly but also pretending they need to have Josh and Myles isn’t real.

 

and you sure do know the team with Josh today picked an edge and corner day 2. And are amongst Super Bowl favorites because you can do that with Josh and a decent defense. You don’t really pull that off with Myles and an ok qb. 

1 hour ago, The Jokeman said:

I mean where in the first round are said picks? If it's seven top 5 picks as could have a devastating pass rush and above average QB, RB and top tier tackle and a pair of good WRs. As good as Josh is we've seen he alone hasn't gotten us a ring. 

I suspect the team isn’t finishing bottom 5 every year with Josh at the helm 

[Mr. WEO]

7 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

quit being a doofus. I say that with endearingly but also pretending they need to have Josh and Myles isn’t real.

 

and you sure do know the team with Josh today picked an edge and corner day 2. And are amongst Super Bowl favorites because you can do that with Josh and a decent defense. You don’t really pull that off with Myles and an ok qb. 

I suspect the team isn’t finishing bottom 5 every year with Josh at the helm 

we aren’t talking about who the Bills drafted because it doesn’t pertain to a discussion of what would happen if he got traded to the Browns.  Not sure why you would bring the Bills up. Josh would be gone. The Browns defense now sucks and they aren’t capable of drafting quality on day 2

[Kirby Jackson]

1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Mortgage the future to get 8ish wins a year?  What would be the point?  The Browns are an organization that, last year, while still massively overpaying long ago  flash in the pan Deshawn Watson, decided to flesh out the QB with not 1 but 2 bums in Sanders and Gabriel. 

 

Their body throwing technique is the worst in the NFL.

 

You only consider it for a star QB. You hope that Josh plus the rest of that roster wins 10 or 11. The worst teams in the league win 4 or 5. It’s possible he would move them to the playoffs. Is the rest of their talent that much worse than the rest of the Bills?

[NoSaint]

Just now, Mr. WEO said:

we aren’t talking about who the Bills drafted because it doesn’t pertain to a discussion of what would happen if he got traded to the Browns.  Not sure why you would bring the Bills up. Josh would be gone. The Browns defense now sucks and they aren’t capable of drafting quality on day 2

because you are saying they couldn’t put a team around Josh without a first round edge and corner.

 

and yet, here we are getting those types of guys around Josh. It’s not like we have a 1.1 DE and 1.4 CB here to make this team a contender for him. 
 

Sure, tell me about groot and Hairston like those guys have been rare find guys for our success that can’t be had after 32 

 

I could put you at DE and with Josh at QB the team could win some games still. It ain’t happening with you at qb and Myles at DE. 
 

the jump from Myles to Josh is substantial. It’s not that complicated. Whether 6 or 8 - whatever. 

[NoSaint]

8 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

we aren’t talking about who the Bills drafted because it doesn’t pertain to a discussion of what would happen if he got traded to the Browns.  Not sure why you would bring the Bills up. Josh would be gone. The Browns defense now sucks and they aren’t capable of drafting quality on day 2

I mean, do you want to sub in trading Micah parsons and some picks? 
 

or jsn and some picks 

 

or maybe the vikes trade Justin Jefferson plus picks 

 

Do you genuinely think in good faith that the conversation is whether the browns draft effectively on day 2? 
 

even by your standards of sidetracking a point to keep a back and forth alive it’s pretty lame 

[BillyJoeBills]

I thought Jets were bad but the Browns since 2013 was possibly worse; off hand I think Browns spent 6 first rounders for Weeden, Manziel, Mayfield and Watson, 2nd rounder for Kizer.   I clearly see the value of 7 first rounders for Josh

 

2013-2015: Jason Campbell, Brandon Weeden, Brian Hoyer, Johnny Manziel, Connor Shaw, Josh McCown, Austin Davis

2016-2017: Cody Kessler, Robert Griffin III, DeShone Kizer, Kevin Hogan

2018-2021: Baker Mayfield, Tyrod Taylor, Case Keenum, Nick Mullens

2022-2024: Deshaun Watson, Jacoby Brissett, Joe Flacco, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, P.J. Walker, Jeff Driskel, Jameis Winston, Bailey Zappe

2025-2026 Shedeur Sanders, Dillon Gabriel, Taylen Green

 

[Victory Formation]

On 7/16/2026 at 12:15 PM, H2o said:

Even though he has JA17 listed as worth seven 1st's, I still wouldn't do it if the opportunity was on the table. 

Me neither, generational talent at QB.. Maybe seven 1sts and seven 2nds...

[Mr. WEO]

15 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

You only consider it for a star QB. You hope that Josh plus the rest of that roster wins 10 or 11. The worst teams in the league win 4 or 5. It’s possible he would move them to the playoffs. Is the rest of their talent that much worse than the rest of the Bills?

 

15 hours ago, NoSaint said:

because you are saying they couldn’t put a team around Josh without a first round edge and corner.

 

and yet, here we are getting those types of guys around Josh. It’s not like we have a 1.1 DE and 1.4 CB here to make this team a contender for him. 
 

Sure, tell me about groot and Hairston like those guys have been rare find guys for our success that can’t be had after 32 

 

I could put you at DE and with Josh at QB the team could win some games still. It ain’t happening with you at qb and Myles at DE. 
 

the jump from Myles to Josh is substantial. It’s not that complicated. Whether 6 or 8 - whatever. 

 

14 hours ago, NoSaint said:

I mean, do you want to sub in trading Micah parsons and some picks? 
 

or jsn and some picks 

 

or maybe the vikes trade Justin Jefferson plus picks 

 

Do you genuinely think in good faith that the conversation is whether the browns draft effectively on day 2? 
 

even by your standards of sidetracking a point to keep a back and forth alive it’s pretty lame 

I’ll state my point again: there’s no evidence to suggest the the Cleveland Browns could mortgage a Josh Allen trade with boatloads of 1st round picks and build a contender around him, given their chronic mismanagement and draft history. Not sure why you are sidetracking to the Bills and their ability to find good players on day 2, unless you are now claiming that the Bills FO and their ability Browns are equally able to stick a roster around Allen. 

[NoSaint]

11 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

I’ll state my point again: there’s no evidence to suggest the the Cleveland Browns could mortgage a Josh Allen trade with boatloads of 1st round picks and build a contender around him, given their chronic mismanagement and draft history. Not sure why you are sidetracking to the Bills and their ability to find good players on day 2, unless you are now claiming that the Bills FO and their ability Browns are equally able to stick a roster around Allen. 

so you are saying that the core argument and focus of a discussion about whether a team would trade the equivalent of 6, 7, 8 first round picks for Josh should center around whether the browns are good at drafting in later rounds

 

and that by declaring they are not, you have come out ahead here 

[NewEra]

Just now, NoSaint said:

so you are saying that the core argument and focus of a discussion about whether a team would trade the equivalent of 6, 7, 8 first round picks for Josh should center around whether the browns are good at drafting in later rounds

 

and that by declaring they are not, you have come out ahead here 

Just WEO doing WEO things.

[Kirby Jackson]

1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

I’ll state my point again: there’s no evidence to suggest the the Cleveland Browns could mortgage a Josh Allen trade with boatloads of 1st round picks and build a contender around him, given their chronic mismanagement and draft history. Not sure why you are sidetracking to the Bills and their ability to find good players on day 2, unless you are now claiming that the Bills FO and their ability Browns are equally able to stick a roster around Allen. 

You’re nothing if not consistent.

 

If you took the Browns team today, and swapped out Sanders/Watson and subbed in Josh Allen what would the record be in 2026? Forget about future years, when those hypothetical picks would come into play? How good would that team be in 2026?

[Mikie2times]

2 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

You’re nothing if not consistent.

 

If you took the Browns team today, and swapped out Sanders/Watson and subbed in Josh Allen what would the record be in 2026? Forget about future years, when those hypothetical picks would come into play? How good would that team be in 2026?

It would not be impossible to argue the Browns with Allen would be near or at the same level as the Bills with Allen.