Bill Barnwell’s annual how many first round picks would it take article

[Augie]

1 hour ago, JP51 said:

Yes we have made like 75 1st rd picks and imo only 2 (Bruce, OJ, ok 3 Kelly) even approach that level... so 25 picks to get another player at a comparable level of impact.... 

 

Greatness is rare. You don’t let it go if you have it, you support it. 

[Mr. WEO]

It's a fun exercise but if Josh hit the market tomorrow, no team is offering 7 first round picks. lol.  No player would ever command that haul.  

[BillyJoeBills]

These valuations are fun to imagine what-if trade scenarios before the real action starts in 2 weeks with training camp.

According to the valuation, Josh Allen for Joe Burrow and 3 first rounders might be a fair deal, but I wouldn’t touch it.  If they throw in Jmarr Chase and we can pull in a draft day trade up using 3 first rounders to get Jeremiah Smith, that would be certainly enticing, but I still wouldn’t do it.  Trading Josh would be akin to the Red Sox trading Babe Ruth and getting socked with 80 plus years curse; after all these frustrating playoff losses, we’ve suffered more than enough bad luck.

[Sierra Foothills]

Is this gonna become just another thread devolving into a moratorium on Brandon Beane?

 

Asking for @eball!

 

😆

 

[nuklz2594]

17 hours ago, T.E. said:

If any team actually offered the Bills a 1st for Ed Oliver, Beane would literally sprint to the fax machine to get that paperwork in.

same with rousseau

[NoSaint]

15 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

It's a fun exercise but if Josh hit the market tomorrow, no team is offering 7 first round picks. lol.  No player would ever command that haul.  

How many than? Other than acquiring 7 in the legal trade compensation window being near impossible… the browns for instance wouldn’t say whatever and trade everything they had available plus the Garrett haul?

 

That’s their next 3 plus 2ish plus some extra noise with day 2?

 

the real challenge is surviving the dead money of acquiring all the extras but you also get a qb with reduced cap hit for a bit

[Mr. WEO]

31 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

How many than? Other than acquiring 7 in the legal trade compensation window being near impossible… the browns for instance wouldn’t say whatever and trade everything they had available plus the Garrett haul?

 

That’s their next 3 plus 2ish plus some extra noise with day 2?

 

the real challenge is surviving the dead money of acquiring all the extras but you also get a qb with reduced cap hit for a bit

 

Barnwell lists other top player trades that have happened, pointing out that perhaps the second best player in the NFL (Garrett) brought 3 1st round picks.  Then he says he is going to be "conservative" in his following hypotheticals.  Then he says Josh would go for 7 1st round picks.  Ok.  I guess, sure why not?  He doesn't say how he lept from 3 1's for Garrett to 7 for Allen.  His claim that a team would give 6 1's for Maye eliminates any credibility to this thought exercise.

 

The Browns may have traded the 3 1s they got for Garrett and another to make 4 I guess.   Even if it was possible, no team would give up that amount of capital for one player.  Risk is too high.  An injury could wipe out the franchise for years--especially true for the Browns (or Jets), the ownership and management being so awful, they could never recover.  

[mathja]

22 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

Josh and Mahomes listed as worth SEVEN 1st round picks. About right, imo.

 

The only one close to them is Drake Maye ranked as 6 1sts, which I think most of us will disagree with, but the hype on him is high now so that jacks up his value. We'll see after this next season.

Is it fair to say that the bills gave up Patrick Mahomes for only two first round picks?

[Paup 1995MVP]

20 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

That’s a big part of it. The pendulum has swung too far though. I’d rather make the deals suggested for Burrow or Lamar or Nix or Lawrence or Daniels or Caleb Williams. If it’s 4 first for Caleb Williams and 6 for Drake Maye, I want Caleb every time. 

Football is still a game and is supposed to be entertainment, right?  It's fun to watch Caleb play.  He makes things happen on the field.  Running around and throwing darts all over the place.  He isn't always accurate and will take some sacks not throwing the ball away, but he is exciting.  (The touchdown pass he threw in the playoff game against the Rams falling backwards was one for the ages)

 

Maye is solid.  But lets see what the Pats and Maye do playing a real NFL schedule this season.  Maye was awful in the Super Bowl last year.  The game was almost unwatchable..

 

But football is almost back and I can't wait.  The offseason just seems so long.  Fortunately, this offseason I had Michigan College Basketball (Go Blue), then the Sabres playoff run, and now the World Cup, which has been very exciting.  But now we get the BILLS, with a new coaching staff and a new stadium.  Should be an awesome year!  Lets go!

[MiltonWaddams]

40 minutes ago, mathja said:

Is it fair to say that the bills gave up Patrick Mahomes for only two first round picks?

It could be. But then it’s also fair to say they gave up Mahomes for Josh…

[colin]

1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Barnwell lists other top player trades that have happened, pointing out that perhaps the second best player in the NFL (Garrett) brought 3 1st round picks.  Then he says he is going to be "conservative" in his following hypotheticals.  Then he says Josh would go for 7 1st round picks.  Ok.  I guess, sure why not?  He doesn't say how he lept from 3 1's for Garrett to 7 for Allen.  His claim that a team would give 6 1's for Maye eliminates any credibility to this thought exercise.

 

The Browns may have traded the 3 1s they got for Garrett and another to make 4 I guess.   Even if it was possible, no team would give up that amount of capital for one player.  Risk is too high.  An injury could wipe out the franchise for years--especially true for the Browns (or Jets), the ownership and management being so awful, they could never recover.  

 

there is a limit on all of this because teams just don't have 7 first round picks.  the old walker trade and the recent watson trade i think have soured a lot of GMs on multi picks on a player who you have to pay for the reason you wrote -- it's too much risk concentration on one guy when you play a very injurious sport.

 

i think the rams have lit the fire again on gms in terms of trading high value picks for established players, and we saw parsons and garrett get traded for high value, but there were also players coming back on those trade, good ones.  the ravens got maxx for 2 1s, but found an out because they saw a similar but not as good player was available for a similar but smaller contract and no picks.  i think the dex lawrence and dj moore trades are a pretty good indicator of what teams may be doing with picks.  a 1st or less for a high quality known commodity at a need position.  i think we are going to see trades like that much more going forward.

[CincyBillsFan]

22 hours ago, H2o said:

Even though he has JA17 listed as worth seven 1st's, I still wouldn't do it if the opportunity was on the table. 

Yep.  A lot of bad NFL teams spend a decade or more sucking yet holding high draft picks year after year and where does it get them?

 

 

1 hour ago, mathja said:

Is it fair to say that the bills gave up Patrick Mahomes for only two first round picks?

No because if the Bills KNEW ahead of time what Mahomes would be they would have taken him.  Then the Chiefs might have gotten Allen and then Reid & company would have gone on to beat the Bills year after year in the playoffs.

 

 

[NoSaint]

3 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Barnwell lists other top player trades that have happened, pointing out that perhaps the second best player in the NFL (Garrett) brought 3 1st round picks.  Then he says he is going to be "conservative" in his following hypotheticals.  Then he says Josh would go for 7 1st round picks.  Ok.  I guess, sure why not?  He doesn't say how he lept from 3 1's for Garrett to 7 for Allen.  His claim that a team would give 6 1's for Maye eliminates any credibility to this thought exercise.

 

The Browns may have traded the 3 1s they got for Garrett and another to make 4 I guess.   Even if it was possible, no team would give up that amount of capital for one player.  Risk is too high.  An injury could wipe out the franchise for years--especially true for the Browns (or Jets), the ownership and management being so awful, they could never recover.  

I mean, it’s completely make believe land so I’m only going to put so much into it but…. 
 

Deshaun was 3 firsts plus additional picks, plus the most egregious contract in the history of the league and he was not nearly as good even at his prime - and was coming off a very messy situation… and had multiple teams in on him

 

to think a healthy mvp qb in his prime with fair contract and no red flags would be essentially the same trade package seems to undershoot it. 
 

I think the only limitation is what a team could actually build into the package, not what a team would be willing to part with. 
 

whether that’s 7 firsts or 3 firsts, a couple other picks and an elite player (plus 2 firsts) and a second very good player (plus 1 first) 

 

ignoring Deshaun’s financial stress on them - would the browns have traded 3 firsts, a few scattered picks, Myles and Denzel ward for Josh? Probably. 

[Mr. WEO]

Just now, NoSaint said:

I mean, it’s completely make believe land so I’m only going to put so much into it but…. 
 

Deshaun was 3 firsts plus additional picks, plus the most egregious contract in the history of the league and he was not nearly as good even at his prime - and was coming off a very messy situation… and had multiple teams in on him

 

to think a healthy mvp qb in his prime with fair contract and no red flags would be essentially the same trade package seems to undershoot it. 
 

I think the only limitation is what a team could actually build into the package, not what a team would be willing to part with. 
 

whether that’s 7 firsts or 3 firsts, a couple other picks and an elite player (plus 2 firsts) and a second very good player (plus 1 first) 

 

ignoring Deshaun’s financial stress on them - would the browns have traded 3 firsts, a few scattered picks, Myles and Denzel ward for Josh? Probably. 

 

The fact that Garrett got the same number of 1sts tells us that the ceiling, not the undershot,  is 3 and Watson was the cautionary tale.  He may have had multiple teams on him, but how many were offering 3 1sts?  Likely none (NO ATL were in the running.  Word is that the Browns put down 230 million right up front and Watson waited for NO and ATL to outbid.  Wisely, neither did.

 

3 1sts and Garrett (Denzel no longer tips that scale) for Josh?  I'm sure they would.  Their Defense would be left exposed and they would have no ammo to restock.

[NoSaint]

5 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

The fact that Garrett got the same number of 1sts tells us that the ceiling, not the undershot,  is 3 and Watson was the cautionary tale.  He may have had multiple teams on him, but how many were offering 3 1sts?  Likely none (NO ATL were in the running.  Word is that the Browns put down 230 million right up front and Watson waited for NO and ATL to outbid.  Wisely, neither did.

 

3 1sts and Garrett (Denzel no longer tips that scale) for Josh?  I'm sure they would.  Their Defense would be left exposed and they would have no ammo to restock.

theyd have an mvp qb and be looking to draft an edge and corner on day two. 
 

wait, who just drafted an edge and corner on day two?!?

 

alas it’s near semantics on the terms at this point on a make believe debate- I think the point landed and just agree to disagree about agreeing to disagree agreeably

Edited July 17 by NoSaint

[Kirby Jackson]

Just now, Mr. WEO said:

 

The fact that Garrett got the same number of 1sts tells us that the ceiling, not the undershot,  is 3 and Watson was the cautionary tale.  He may have had multiple teams on him, but how many were offering 3 1sts?  Likely none (NO ATL were in the running.  Word is that the Browns put down 230 million right up front and Watson waited for NO and ATL to outbid.  Wisely, neither did.

 

3 1sts and Garrett (Denzel no longer tips that scale) for Josh?  I'm sure they would.  Their Defense would be left exposed and they would have no ammo to restock.

I look at it like “trading for Josh adds 6 or 7 wins. Gutting your defensive stars subtracts 2 or 3.” Would you trade 3 firsts for 3 to 5 more wins? I think most teams would assuming it solves QB. You keep throwing bodies at the rest of the roster and hope to find guys starting caliber players even if they’re worse than Ward/Garrett. 

[Pecker]

19 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

It's a fun exercise but if Josh hit the market tomorrow, no team is offering 7 first round picks. lol.  No player would ever command that haul.  

I would never even consider it.  Allen is worth WAAAYYYYY more than draft picks.  
 

id need 3-4 all pro caliber players AND 3-4 high picks to even CONSIDER trading him.  He’s that good/important to our success 

Edited July 17 by Pecker

[BillsFanForever19]

On 7/16/2026 at 12:15 PM, H2o said:

Even though he has JA17 listed as worth seven 1st's, I still wouldn't do it if the opportunity was on the table. 

 

I think 7 is just a vague guestimate based on how many picks is thought of as too much for a team to give up and how many picks is thought of as too good to pass up. But like the article says, he's "the most significant and impossible valuation in the league" and "nobody would cost more".

 

Ultimately, when it comes to trading away perhaps the best Quarterback in Football - there is no trade offer worth giving that up. You could spend your entire Franchise's existence and never land on another #1 QB in the league again.

 

Edited July 17 by BillsFanForever19

[BillyJoeBills]

22 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

I think 7 is just a vague guestimate based on how many picks is thought of as too much for a team to give up and how many picks is thought of as too good to pass up. But like the article says, he's "the most significant and impossible valuation in the league" and "nobody would cost more".

 

Ultimately, when it comes to trading away perhaps the best Quarterback in Football - there is no trade offer worth giving that up. You could spend your entire Franchise's existence and never land on another #1 QB in the league again.

 

So right; look at Jets, in 2013 drafted Geno Smith, after releasing him, they went thru all these QBs:

Michael Vick (2014)

Ryan Fitzpatrick (2015–2016)

Bryce Petty (2016–2017)

Josh McCown (2017–2018)

Sam Darnold (2018–2020)

Luke Falk (2019)

Trevor Siemian (2019, 2023)

Joe Flacco (2020–2022)

Zach Wilson (2021–2023)

Mike White (2021–2022)

Tim Boyle (2023)

Aaron Rodgers (2023–2024)

Justin Fields, Tyrod Taylor, and Brady Cook (2025)

drafted Tajh Boyd, Christian Hackenberg, James Morgan, Jordan Travis, all of whom never saw the field inregular season

That’s a lot wasted draft picks that’s in my guesstimate is equivalent to around 5 first rounders; not even counting cost of  13 lost years…the 1 decision of the Jets to trade up to pick 3 in 2018 to select Darnold instead of sitting tight at pick 6 where Josh Allen was available has set them back so many years; that’s why the GM can literally kill generations of players in their franchise

[ticketssince61]

On 7/16/2026 at 7:52 AM, DrDawkinstein said:

Josh and Mahomes listed as worth SEVEN 1st round picks. About right, imo.

 

The only one close to them is Drake Maye ranked as 6 1sts, which I think most of us will disagree with, but the hype on him is high now so that jacks up his value. We'll see after this next season.

 

There are no amount of draft picks that would be worth receiving in exchange for Josh Allen - especially since any team with him would have a decent record