dave mcbride Posted July 9 Posted July 9 (edited) https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7426208/2026/07/06/at-what-age-do-nfl-players-in-different-positions-peak/ Lots of surprises here. If history is any guide, we’ve got a lot of prime Josh still in store, and DJ Moore will be in his peak years for a couple more seasons. Lots to chew on and debate here as it applies to the Bills too. —— ’On defense, the inside of the line is just a different beast. Paul Dehner Jr. explored how DTs are aging better than ever, speaking with the Bengals’ 28-year-old addition Dexter Lawrence, who’s now alongside the 31-year-old Jonathan Allen. They explained why their cohort has been aging so well: 💬 “You don’t lose strength,” Allen said. “That’s the last thing to go. That’s something I’m still able to rely on. And if anything, I feel stronger than ever.” “It’s (also) an understanding of how offenses work, an anticipation of what they are going to do can help you so much more than a cornerback, where if you don’t have the speed to keep up with a go ball, it’s going to be hard at 35 to keep up with receivers just coming into the league.”’ Edited July 9 by dave mcbride 1 4 Quote
transient Posted July 9 Posted July 9 Sooooo... this was meant to make me jealous of the Rams and Garrett all over again? 1 1 1 Quote
sunshynman Posted July 9 Posted July 9 1 hour ago, transient said: Sooooo... this was meant to make me jealous of the Rams and Garrett all over again? I would have made that move in a heartbeat. But Browns didn't want him going to an AFC team, I guess. Quote
Steve Billieve Posted July 9 Posted July 9 Kind of shocking qb's value isn't highest at a much older age. Maybe it gets difficult to measure how effective a Brady or a Manning is when they're really getting up there. Quote
MJS Posted July 9 Posted July 9 38 minutes ago, Steve Billieve said: Kind of shocking qb's value isn't highest at a much older age. Maybe it gets difficult to measure how effective a Brady or a Manning is when they're really getting up there. It is because you pay for the promised future of the player, not just the current version of them. So, old QBs that are still really good are super valuable, but you don't know how long you will have them for, versus a QB who is 28, still ascending, and you know you can count on them for at least 5 more years. You pay extra for the long term stability. Quote
Steve Billieve Posted July 9 Posted July 9 56 minutes ago, MJS said: It is because you pay for the promised future of the player, not just the current version of them. So, old QBs that are still really good are super valuable, but you don't know how long you will have them for, versus a QB who is 28, still ascending, and you know you can count on them for at least 5 more years. You pay extra for the long term stability. Are you talking about the value distribution? the second chart? Maybe my memory is clouded from getting owned by Brady into his 40's but I don't really recall many 38 yo qbs who weren't really good. Quote
Augie Posted July 9 Posted July 9 1 hour ago, sunshynman said: I would have made that move in a heartbeat. But Browns didn't want him going to an AFC team, I guess. Yeah, that could have kept the Browns out of the Super Bowl! 🤣 I feel for Browns fans. I get that pain. 1 Quote
WotAGuy Posted July 9 Posted July 9 2 hours ago, Steve Billieve said: Are you talking about the value distribution? the second chart? Maybe my memory is clouded from getting owned by Brady into his 40's but I don't really recall many 38 yo qbs who weren't really good. Todd Collins was 39 when he retired! Quote
MJS Posted July 9 Posted July 9 2 hours ago, Steve Billieve said: Are you talking about the value distribution? the second chart? Maybe my memory is clouded from getting owned by Brady into his 40's but I don't really recall many 38 yo qbs who weren't really good. Most QBs retire before they are 38. Only the really, really good ones play that long. But they are usually only signing one or two year extension deals by that point with their respective teams because teams can't realistically expect them to play longer, and nobody knows when they will drop off that cliff. Peyton Manning was really good until he wasn't. He just all of the sudden had nothing left by the end. Ben Roethlisberger was kind of the same. All of the sudden, he couldn't throw the ball more than 5 yards down the field. Quote
BillsSbSoon Posted July 9 Posted July 9 (edited) 3 hours ago, Steve Billieve said: Are you talking about the value distribution? the second chart? Maybe my memory is clouded from getting owned by Brady into his 40's but I don't really recall many 38 yo qbs who weren't really good. Brees was still elite at 38. Elway was still really good. But the thing is Brady and brees weren’t mobile but knew how to manipulate the pocket. We don’t know how effective Josh is going to be when he starts getting up there because of the way he plays. This is why a lot of us don’t want to see him taking contact all the time Edited July 9 by BillsSbSoon Quote
Saint Doug Posted July 9 Posted July 9 3 hours ago, Steve Billieve said: Are you talking about the value distribution? the second chart? Maybe my memory is clouded from getting owned by Brady into his 40's but I don't really recall many 38 yo qbs who weren't really good. I wonder how much survivorship bias plays into this. If a QB is still playing at the age of 38, then he’s probably had a pretty darn good career. Hard to tease out whether this means this guy was an excellent QB or whether they just age better. Probably more of the former than later. Quote
dave mcbride Posted July 10 Author Posted July 10 1 hour ago, Saint Doug said: I wonder how much survivorship bias plays into this. If a QB is still playing at the age of 38, then he’s probably had a pretty darn good career. Hard to tease out whether this means this guy was an excellent QB or whether they just age better. Probably more of the former than later. That issue is dealt with in the piece. 1 Quote
Victory Formation Posted July 10 Posted July 10 Very cool thanks for posting!! So realistically we should get at least 5 more years out of Josh, maybe more if he takes really good care of himself.. Quote
Sierra Foothills Posted July 10 Posted July 10 6 hours ago, WotAGuy said: Todd Collins was 39 when he retired! He played for 4 teams and had career earnings of $18.3 million. Quote
sunshynman Posted July 10 Posted July 10 18 hours ago, sunshynman said: I would have made that move in a heartbeat. But Browns didn't want him going to an AFC team, I guess. 16 hours ago, Augie said: Yeah, that could have kept the Browns out of the Super Bowl! 🤣 I feel for Browns fans. I get that pain. More so that they wouldn't want him recking havoc when they eventually played the Bills. Quote
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