Some interesting stats from the Bills 2025 season

[Einstein]

 

Allen was nearly perfect when throwing to Jackson Hawes or Dalton Kincaid

Allen was at his worst when targeting Keion Coleman or Jordan Palmer

Goodness gracious, look at the first drive EPA

It's specifically Drive 1 that's elite, then Drive 2 is still strong (0.223), then Drive 3 craters to -0.137.



Bills got penalized more





We played our best in freezing weather



Bills have been middle of the pack in challenge success rate the past 3 years



Our EPA was best in the division on every down except for 1st down



Our team effeciency was one of the best in the NFL from a scatterplot view (unfortunately the Patriots were even better)



Because Josh Allen is a freak of nature, our probability of scoring a TD barely changes depending where on the field we are



Compare that to the average opponent offense, which like you would expect, has an increase in TD probability as they get closer to the goal

Some other standout stuff:
 

* Allen was better under center in 2025 ... 0.233 EPA vs 0.205 in shotgun, and only 1 INT vs 11. Similar comp% but way fewer turnovers. Digging deeper, under center is better mainly just because of INTs, not overall passing effieicny. Pass EPA is similar (0.233 vs 0.205), but Allen threw 11 INTs from shotgun and only 1 under center. The shotgun INTs happen at avg 8.4 yards to go, down 4.5 points, mid-game (qtr 2.7). 

 

* Allen is elite in desperation mode. Down 15+.... 0.321 EPA, 61.5% pass rate, 6 TDs. Allen is genuinely elite in desperation mode. The weird one is Up 4-7: negative EPA (-0.105). In the same vein, 4th quarter explosive passes doubled. 29 plays of 20+ yards in Q4 vs 14-15 in other quarters. Averaging 30.2 yards. 

* We were better when trailing (they play their worst football with a one-score lead) - 0.169 EPA trailing vs 0.062 leading. This has some confounding to it, but pass rate jumps to 53.2% when behind. They played conservative with leads and it hurt them.

* No-huddle is terrible - negative EPA (-0.051) vs 0.126 in huddle. Only 72 plays so small sample, but not good.

 

* Deep passes are the defensive weakness. 41.1% completion allowed on deep balls but 0.430 EPA.

 

* Kincaid is the most efficient receiver by a mile - 0.818 EPA, 6.1 YAC, 7 TDs on 61 targets. Shakir has the volume (118 targets) but way lower efficiency (0.125 EPA).

 

*3rd down conversion 42.4% vs league 36% 
 

* Run game: guards > ends > tackles - guard runs most efficient at 0.132 EPA, tackle runs slightly negative.

 

Idea so you can re-create:

 

Edited July 1 by Einstein

[Sierra Foothills]

Great stuff... thanks!

 

[Pete]

“Allen is elite in desperation mode. Down 15+.... 0.321 EPA, 61.5% pass rate, 6 TDs. Allen is genuinely elite in desperation mode. The weird one is Up 4-7: negative EPA (-0.105). In the same vein, 4th quarter explosive passes doubled. 29 plays of 20+ yards in Q4 vs 14-15 in other quarters. Averaging 30.2 yards. 
 

We were better when trailing (they play their worst football with a one-score lead) - 0.169 EPA trailing vs 0.062 leading. This has some confounding to it, but pass ratejumps to 53.2% when behind. They played conservative with leads and it hurt them.
 

No-huddle is terrible - negative EPA (-0.051) vs 0.126 in huddle. Only 72 plays so small sample, butnot good.

 

offense at its worst when ahead one score- that’s maddening and confounding!

 

 

[Einstein]

Some others

[Einstein]

10 minutes ago, Pete said:

offense at its worst when ahead one score- that’s maddening and confounding!

Yeah, this was a play-calling issue.
 

Up 1-3: 0.114 EPA

Up 4-7: -0.105 EPA

Up 8-14: 0.140 EPA

Up 15+: 0.161 EPA

And it's nearly all attributable to runs.

Run plays when up 4-7: -0.203 EPA, 2.69 yards per play.
Up 1-3 runs: +0.150 EPA, 3.22 yards per play.

If we have a lead, we are going to run and we are going to run poorly.



Look at New England week 15: 0% pass rate, -0.582 EPA. Baltimore week 1, same thing: 0% pass rate, -0.247 EPA.

Meanwhile the passing is fine at +0.049 even in this situation.
 

Edited June 30 by Einstein

[NewEra]

Thanks @Einstein

 

lots of interesting stuff there.  

[WotAGuy]

This is really quite amazing. 
 

“Because Josh Allen is a freak of nature, our probability of scoring a TD barely changes depending where on the field we are.”

[Einstein]

6 minutes ago, WotAGuy said:

This is really quite amazing. 
 

“Because Josh Allen is a freak of nature, our probability of scoring a TD barely changes depending where on the field we are.”

We beat the NFL average at every zone except 41-50.

[PonyBoy]

Gotta be honest, I'm a big fan, but had to Google EPA. 😀

[Kirby Jackson]

Great stuff @Einstein!! Thanks for sharing

[GoBills808]

great stuff

 

one of my big complaints about the Brady offense build- it relied on a run game that more explosive than it was consistent and that's incongruous imo. I don't know if it was necessarily a Cook issue, an oline issue, or a playcalling issue but imo this data suggests we had a ball control offense that couldn't necessarily control the ball when we needed to

 

also speaks to how Allen is genuinely an NFL cheat code

[Einstein]

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

great stuff

 

one of my big complaints about the Brady offense build- it relied on a run game that more explosive than it was consistent and that's incongruous imo. I don't know if it was necessarily a Cook issue, an oline issue, or a playcalling issue but imo this data suggests we had a ball control offense that couldn't necessarily control the ball when we needed to

 

also speaks to how Allen is genuinely an NFL cheat code

You're right.

 

 

 

In fact, we only get above 51% passing when we are trailing and in the 4th quarter.

[GoBills808]

17 minutes ago, Einstein said:

You're right.

 

 

 

In fact, we only get above 51% passing when we are trailing and in the 4th quarter.

im ok w the rates (i mean i'm really not, owing to evpass being higher than evrun, but in context of this particular offense ill pretend i am) but we played SO conservative on offense and this really hammers it home

 

re the allen point...his rushEPA has to be astronomical. combine that w success rate and TD% and i think this only really works w him specifically at QB which has been my major gripe. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Great stuff!

 

Love me some Dawson Knox.  He had less drops this year but he had a brutal drop in the end-zone against the Browns.

[Thrivefourfive]

The code for the Bills to win the Super Bowl: Joshua

 

Fun fun data, @Einstein  

 

Playing your worst football with a one score lead is just dumb. Felt all season that the first drive was great, and then they always lulled their way to a desperate game script by the end of the first half. High stress winning is something I’d like to see disappear with McDermott. Back in the early 2020s they’d blow out teams for a whole month. That was way more fun than this heart attack style of needing all 60 minutes to decide each game. 

[13 Seconds to Mars]

17 minutes ago, Thrivefourfive said:

The code for the Bills to win the Super Bowl: Joshua

 

Fun fun data, @Einstein  

 

Playing your worst football with a one score lead is just dumb. Felt all season that the first drive was great, and then they always lulled their way to a desperate game script by the end of the first half. High stress winning is something I’d like to see disappear with McDermott. Back in the early 2020s they’d blow out teams for a whole month. That was way more fun than this heart attack style of needing all 60 minutes to decide each game. 

McDermott is the Bill Bellichick of the regular season. His defense goes from a top 5 unit to historically bad once the heat starts. That first run we had against the carcass of Phillip Rivers and then Baltimore had me so confident that we would win 1 in the next couple years. I figured the first AFCC loss to KC was just a learning curve like Jordan losing to the Pistons earlier in his career. Too bad it became a trend. 
 

Edited July 1 by 13 Seconds to Mars

[Richard Noggin]

5 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

Allen was nearly perfect when throwing to Jackson Hawes or Dawson Knox

Allen was at his worst when targeting Keion Coleman or Jordan Palmer

 

 

The first infographic shows Kincaid (not Knox) and Hawes, and Kincaid's numbers are really productive. Hawes throws had only marginally higher completion % and far less verticality and impact, according to the evidence shared. So maybe just a typo. But maybe Knox would show a high completion % as well. 

 

And Coleman's numbers by the evidence provided are much better than Palmer's. Maybe less vertical, but more positively productive. 

[Einstein]

Just now, Richard Noggin said:

 

The first infographic shows Kincaid (not Knox) and Hawes, and Kincaid's numbers are really productive. Hawes throws had only marginally higher completion % and far less verticality and impact, according to the evidence shared. So maybe just a typo. But maybe Knox would show a high completion % as well. 

 

And Coleman's numbers by the evidence provided are much better than Palmer's. Maybe less vertical, but more positively productive. 

 

Oops! That was a brain-to-fingers miscommunication there. You’re right that I meant Kincaid, not Knox

[Richard Noggin]

3 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

Oops! That was a brain-to-fingers miscommunication there. You’re right that I meant Kincaid, not Knox

 

So much serious analytic story-telling in there that almost everyone was just happy to read through without a quality-check. Makes me wonder if the rest of the evidence holds water...(not really)

[Puckman5]

7 hours ago, Pete said:

“Allen is elite in desperation mode. Down 15+.... 0.321 EPA, 61.5% pass rate, 6 TDs. Allen is genuinely elite in desperation mode. The weird one is Up 4-7: negative EPA (-0.105). In the same vein, 4th quarter explosive passes doubled. 29 plays of 20+ yards in Q4 vs 14-15 in other quarters. Averaging 30.2 yards. 
 

We were better when trailing (they play their worst football with a one-score lead) - 0.169 EPA trailing vs 0.062 leading. This has some confounding to it, but pass ratejumps to 53.2% when behind. They played conservative with leads and it hurt them.
 

No-huddle is terrible - negative EPA (-0.051) vs 0.126 in huddle. Only 72 plays so small sample, butnot good.

 

offense at its worst when ahead one score- that’s maddening and confounding!

 

 

With a lead, play ball control offense and protectant the dumpster 🔥 defense.  When down and the game plan isn't working, let Josh do his thing.  Makes perfect McSense.