The View from Patriots Wire

[Nihilarian]

3 hours ago, BigDingus said:

I'll be honest, I am scared we might take a big step back this year.

 

The Patriots have the advantage of coaching consistency, building off an AFC best record (tied), a Super Bowl appearance, and a runner up MVP at QB who's only entering his 3rd year. They did this while having the most cap space in the league & adding AJ Brown.

 

Meanwhile, the Bills are up in the air. I have no idea what to think. This is the first time Allen has ever had a new HC. It's the first time we've had a new defense in this era. There were plenty of seasons where Drew Brees & Big Ben were statistically great but their teams were not. We will soon get to see how much McDermott either held back this team, or disguised many of its weaknesses. The uncertainty makes me nervous!

 

Outside of that, we had some of the lowest available cap space in the league heading into the offseason, so we were again looking for bargains in FA & trades. Did we do enough to upgrade the roster? Beats me, but it seems pretty clear the Pats upgraded their's significantly. 

Well said! 

 

The Patriots have a known HC, defense, run game, and a slight unknown in their QB. Will Drake Maye develop into learning to read opponents' defenses better, especially a cover-six defense?  That is about the only flaw I see with that team at this point. Then, considering that their OC has helped develop other QBs, he could improve. I see a playoff team contending for the AFC East Division in 2026. 

 

With the Buffalo Bills, we have so many unknowns to not be somewhat skeptical. A new head coach, promoted from OC. To be practical, the odds of Joe Brady being a top NFL playcaller and head coach are around 40-50%. It is very difficult to do both, regardless of the other coaches around him. We...just...don't...know! 

 

Then you have a brand new defensive coordinator with a brand new scheme? The odds of a new defensive coordinator (DC) with a new scheme being a "winner" in year one are generally low. Historically, only about 30% to 40% of major defensive scheme changes show immediate, significant statistical improvement, as players often struggle to unlearn their previous instincts. Have the Buffalo Bills done enough to bolster the pass rush this year? We...just...don't...know!

 

The Buffalo offense could still be lacking that "elite" WR that everyone wants so badly. Will just DJ Moore fill that bill, or was it smarter of the Patriots to bring in two with AJ Brown, who is a known elite guy, along with WR Romeo Doubs.

 

Also, they brought in, 

Alijah Vera-Tucker (G): Highly versatile offensive lineman added to solidify the trenches.

Dre'Mont Jones (LB): Elite pass-rusher signed from the Ravens/Titans, coming off a career-high 7-sack season.

Kevin Byard III (S): Experienced veteran defensive back brought in to anchor the secondary.

Reggie Gilliam (FB): Signed a 3-year deal to provide heavy-blocking support and a new dimension to the running game.

Julian Hill (TE): Added on a 3-year deal to boost the tight end room.

Other Additions: Linebackers K.J. Britt and Jesse Luketa, offensive tackle James Hudson III, cornerback Kindle Vildor, and safety Mike Brown.

Trade: Acquired center Garrett Bradbury from the Chicago

 

Lastly, Patriots fans have every right to toot their horns and clamor about all the improvements to their team. It's pretty impressive as their new GM looks to be very bright. Their only question mark is a big one, though, and again, Drake Maye? We...just...don't...know.

 

So many questions for Buffalo Bills fans. 

[Logic]

I agree with whoever it was that said above that this is likely to be more of a "watching the standings, worrying about a wild card spot" year than a "dominant all the way through and winning the division easily" kind of year.

I think it's unrealistic to think that a change to a new coaching staff -- and more specifically and importantly, a change to an entirely new defensive scheme -- is going to come without growing pains. Coach Leonhard has even said on several occasions that the defense in year one may not be what his ultimate vision for it is, and that he may have to sort of adapt the scheme to the players he has on hand in year one. That doesn't sound to me like a guy confident in a full one-year scheme installation/transition.

I think the Bills will win double digit games this year and make the playoffs. But if I'm being honest, I think the best chance at Super Bowl glory will come in 2027 and beyond (assuming Brady is a good coach and Leonhard's defense works the way he wants).

Edited July 2 by Logic

[colin]

1 hour ago, WNYFAN1 said:

Don't sleep on an ugly loss at either the Jets or Dolphins, seems to happen every year.

that's the 1

[Kirby Jackson]

30 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

Well said! 

 

The Patriots have a known HC, defense, run game, and a slight unknown in their QB. Will Drake Maye develop into learning to read opponents' defenses better, especially a cover-six defense?  That is about the only flaw I see with that team at this point. Then, considering that their OC has helped develop other QBs, he could improve. I see a playoff team contending for the AFC East Division in 2026. 

 

With the Buffalo Bills, we have so many unknowns to not be somewhat skeptical. A new head coach, promoted from OC. To be practical, the odds of Joe Brady being a top NFL playcaller and head coach are around 40-50%. It is very difficult to do both, regardless of the other coaches around him. We...just...don't...know! 

 

Then you have a brand new defensive coordinator with a brand new scheme? The odds of a new defensive coordinator (DC) with a new scheme being a "winner" in year one are generally low. Historically, only about 30% to 40% of major defensive scheme changes show immediate, significant statistical improvement, as players often struggle to unlearn their previous instincts. Have the Buffalo Bills done enough to bolster the pass rush this year? We...just...don't...know!

 

The Buffalo offense could still be lacking that "elite" WR that everyone wants so badly. Will just DJ Moore fill that bill, or was it smarter of the Patriots to bring in two with AJ Brown, who is a known elite guy, along with WR Romeo Doubs.

 

Also, they brought in, 

Alijah Vera-Tucker (G): Highly versatile offensive lineman added to solidify the trenches.

Dre'Mont Jones (LB): Elite pass-rusher signed from the Ravens/Titans, coming off a career-high 7-sack season.

Kevin Byard III (S): Experienced veteran defensive back brought in to anchor the secondary.

Reggie Gilliam (FB): Signed a 3-year deal to provide heavy-blocking support and a new dimension to the running game.

Julian Hill (TE): Added on a 3-year deal to boost the tight end room.

Other Additions: Linebackers K.J. Britt and Jesse Luketa, offensive tackle James Hudson III, cornerback Kindle Vildor, and safety Mike Brown.

Trade: Acquired center Garrett Bradbury from the Chicago

 

Lastly, Patriots fans have every right to toot their horns and clamor about all the improvements to their team. It's pretty impressive as their new GM looks to be very bright. Their only question mark is a big one, though, and again, Drake Maye? We...just...don't...know.

 

So many questions for Buffalo Bills fans. 

Where are you pulling these percentages from? Here are a list of current HCs that call plays: Reid, Shanahan, McVay, Payton (until this year), LaFleur, Stefanski and Steichen. 3 of those guys are going to the HOF (Reid, McVay, Payton). Matt Lafleur has won 65% of his games. Kyle Shanahan has won 55% and is often considered a mastermind. Stefanski (not my favorite) has twice been named the coach of the year. Steichen is the only one that hasn’t been successful and he’s a game under .500. Where is the “40-50% chance to be successful” coming from?

I’ll ask the same question on the 30% for defense part. I don’t even understand what it is saying. Is it saying that there is only a 30% chance that the Bills have a winning record?!? The Bills are currently -400 to have a winning record. What is the question and what is the data?

 

I do agree on the playmaker piece (and I like the Moore signing). The Pats definitely improved more there than the Bills did. 

Edited July 2 by Kirby Jackson

[PatsFanNH]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

Yeah, I don't think it's possible to conclude that any young QB has peaked early in his career. Maye could prove to be a Hall of Famer. 

Exactly! It’s year 3 and year 2 he was runner up for league MVP.. and more importantly it’s his 2nd year in the same system so LOGICALLY he should be better 

[Thrivefourfive]

49 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I agree that I think the Bills schedule is a little harder than theirs this year. I think Rams > Seahawks, Ravens > Steelers, & Texans > Jags. Neither team plays Tampa or Carolina. Outside of Ravens & Steelers, I think the other ones are close. 
 

I just don’t see it. I think the Bills and Pats both go 4-2 in division. I think the Pats lose at Seattle, at Lions, at least 2 of at Bears/Chiefs/Chargers/Jags & at least 1 of  Vikings/Broncos/Packers/Steelers at home. That puts them, at best at 10-7 IMO.

You’re right, I didn’t catch that the Patriots don’t play Carolina. I thought all division winners play each other. We have to hope the gap between Josh and Maye takes a step in our favor. If Maye is a top 3 QB…. 🙄

[Kirby Jackson]

2 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

Exactly! It’s year 3 and year 2 he was runner up for league MVP.. and more importantly it’s his 2nd year in the same system so LOGICALLY he should be better 

Except he got worse as year 2 went along. Why would logic suggest continued improvement? Carson Wentz almost won MVP in year 2 and then regressed greatly. RGIII went backwards. Baker did as well before bouncing back years later. Your very own Mac Jones fell off a cliff early in his career.

 

I’m not saying that it will definitely happen but it is not safe to assume continued improvement. We watched him play his worst football at the end of last year. Maybe he bounces back? Maybe the league figured some things out and that regression is closer to the player that he is?

[Shaw66]

37 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

Exactly! It’s year 3 and year 2 he was runner up for league MVP.. and more importantly it’s his 2nd year in the same system so LOGICALLY he should be better 

Logically he COULD be better. CJ Stroud was in the second year of the same system and added Stefon Diggs. Stroud got worse. 

 

All you can do, all any of us can do, is hope. When you start convincing yourself that things will be better, you set yourself up for disappointment, at least in the NFL.

[Lost]

6 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Logically he COULD be better. CJ Stroud was in the second year of the same system and added Stefon Diggs. Stroud got worse. 

 

All you can do, all any of us can do, is hope. When you start convincing yourself that things will be better, you set yourself up for disappointment, at least in the NFL.

 

I'm setting myself for the Bills crashing out this season at 6-11, Josh Allen requesting trade to LA and NE winning the SB.   

 

Any result other than that and I can pop the champagne.  

[BigDingus]

4 hours ago, Gregg said:

 

Having a different defense is a good thing. Clearly what McDermott was doing in the playoffs wasn't working. If Leonhard can build a good defense, then the Bills will win the division and have a great chance to get to the Super Bowl and win it. Tougher teams in the AFC to worry about then the Pats. The Texans, Broncos, Ravens and even the Chiefs with a healthy Mahomes will be a challenge.

 

I'm not specifically worried about the Pats. 

 

All those teams you mentioned could also advance ahead of us. That's what I'm saying - I think we're all taking for granted the stability & consistency that McDermott offered. 

 

No, I'm not saying we should've kept McDermott or that he wasn't a huge reason why we never won a Super Bowl.

 

Instead, I'm saying that everyone's assuming the 11 - 13 win seasons we became accustomed to under McDermott are guaranteed to transition to Brady, and that we can only go up from there. 

 

But that's not true. The culture could be much different. Practice could be different. How we approach games will certainly be different. This could be one of those "intense coach" vs "players coach" moments where we see another good coordinator end up being a disappointment as a HC. 

 

Please don't misconstrue this to mean I'm being negative, feeling down on the Bills or believe they'll regress. I'm saying for the first time in a long time, everything's up in the air!

 

It's all unknown, and that uncertainty is scary! I used to be pretty confident we'd at least hit double digit wins & win a playoff game, but now I have no clue. We can't assume that because McDermott's D wasn't working in the playoffs that we'll suddenly have a better D under Leonhard in year 1.

 

We spent the whole 2025 draft selecting players for the old scheme. We spent several years signing players for that old system. Remember when McDermott came in & got rid of a lot of Rex's guys? That was a tough transition, but we got better after a while. Leonhard might find that we don't have the personnel to run his system well yet. Hell, Leonhard himself is a first time DC at the pro level too! 

 

Thankfully, the Ravens will be in the same boat. Guess we'll have to see if Joe Brady or Jesse Minter makes the better leap to HC.

[Gregg]

1 minute ago, Lost said:

 

I'm setting myself for the Bills crashing out this season at 6-11, Josh Allen requesting trade to LA and NE winning the SB.   

 

Any result other than that and I can pop the champagne.  

 

While NE winning the Super Bowl would suck, I think it would be worse if the Dolphins or Jets won one before the Bills. We have seen NE win so many times with Tom and Bill. Fortunately, the Dolphins and Jets are both garbage with no shot at a championship anytime soon. If the Bills went 6-11 then Beane better leave WNY as the pitchforks and knives would be out in full force coming for his head.

[Shaw66]

5 minutes ago, Lost said:

 

I'm setting myself for the Bills crashing out this season at 6-11, Josh Allen requesting trade to LA and NE winning the SB.   

 

Any result other than that and I can pop the champagne.  

You know, I've thought more than once that the most important reason we should all want Brady to succeed is to avoid that trade scenario. Stafford retires and the Rams, as is their style, give a boatload of draft picks to the Bills. That happens and we could be looking at massive depression throughout western New York. 

[Buffalo716]

2 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

You know, I've thought more than once that the most important reason we should all want Brady to succeed is to avoid that trade scenario. Stafford retires and the Rams, as is their style, give a boatload of draft picks to the Bills. That happens and we could be looking at massive depression throughout western New York. 

There's nothing that the Rams could give up that would make the bills jump on their trade 

 

Also you can't even compare Matt Stafford's first 10 years in Detroit to Josh's first 10 years in Buffalo 

 

One has all the signs of a player that can't wait to get out of Dodge.. Stafford

 

Josh is a five-time AFC East champion MVP perennial contender 

 

I know a lot of people have brought up that scenario for years but I think there is literally close to a 0% chance that happens 

 

Josh Allen's daughter is going to watch him play in a Buffalo Bills uniform and remember it.. so that's at least seven more years

Edited July 2 by Buffalo716

[Kirby Jackson]

15 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

There's nothing that the Rams could give up that would make the bills jump on their trade 

 

Also you can't even compare Matt Stafford's first 10 years in Detroit to Josh's first 10 years in Buffalo 

 

One has all the signs of a player that can't wait to get out of Dodge.. Stafford

 

Josh is a five-time AFC East champion MVP perennial contender 

 

I know a lot of people have brought up that scenario for years but I think there is literally close to a 0% chance that happens 

 

Josh Allen's daughter is going to watch him play in a Buffalo Bills uniform and remember it.. so that's at least seven more years

I think the timeline is where it may differ. I think the Bills comfortably have 4 more years of Josh here. At that point, maybe they decide to raise their daughter home in LA.l and start school there. He certainly could be here another 10 as well. I don’t think there’s a scenario where Josh is Stafford’s immediate successor.

Edited July 2 by Kirby Jackson

[Buffalo716]

4 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I think the timeline is where it may differ. I think the Bills comfortably have 4 more years of Josh here. At that point, maybe they decide to raise their daughter home in LA.l and start school there. He certainly could be here another 10 as well. I don’t think there’s a scenario where Josh is Stafford’s immediate successor.

Josh said in an interview that he's going to raise his daughter in Buffalo 

 

If I had to guess she's going to be going to school like Nichols 

 

Anything is possible but Josh seems like a man of his word.. if he says my daughter is going to be raised in Buffalo I believe him

 

Being a Buffalo Bill is certainly special to Josh and I'm pretty sure he wants his children to experience that with him.. that's why I'm pretty sure she's going to be at an old enough age where she has memory to watch Josh play in Buffalo in front of the fans 

 

He's going to want her to experience what he means to the city

Edited July 2 by Buffalo716

[Shaw66]

14 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

There's nothing that the Rams could give up that would make the bills jump on their trade 

 

Also you can't even compare Matt Stafford's first 10 years in Detroit to Josh's first 10 years in Buffalo 

 

One has all the signs of a player that can't wait to get out of Dodge.. Stafford

 

Josh is a five-time AFC East champion MVP perennial contender 

 

I know a lot of people have brought up that scenario for years but I think there is literally close to a 0% chance that happens 

 

Josh Allen's daughter is going to watch him play in a Buffalo Bills uniform and remember it.. so that's at least seven more years

It's nice to think so, but it's not too hard to imagine. He's from California. His wife is from southern California, and wives with babies very often want to be close to home. Imagine the Bills going 10-7 and miss the playoffs. Imagine a second season where they're 9-8 and miss the playoffs. Josh is going into his 10th season in the NFL with no ring and no real reason to believe the Bills are going to get him one. HOF players often ask for a trade in that kind of a situation. 

 

Elway stayed after Shanahan went 8-8 in his first season. But that was Shanahan, and Elway could see he was playing for a genius. 

 

Bills better hope Brady looks like a genius, too. 

[Kirby Jackson]

Just now, Buffalo716 said:

Josh said in an interview that he's going to raise his daughter in Buffalo 

 

If I had to guess she's going to be going to school like Nichols 

 

Anything is possible but Josh seems like a man of his word.. if he says my daughter is going to be raised in Buffalo I believe him

He’s certainly going to say that regardless. Josh will retire before Hailee. They will certainly have their daughter there at some point. It’s just a matter of when. I’d say that there is a less than 5% chance that their daughter lives here for the next 18 years. 

[Gregg]

Just now, Buffalo716 said:

Josh said in an interview that he's going to raise his daughter in Buffalo 

 

If I had to guess she's going to be going to school like Nichols 

 

Anything is possible but Josh seems like a man of his word.. if he says my daughter is going to be raised in Buffalo I believe him

 

What does Hailee want. You know the deal. Happy wife happy life. For the record I think Allen will spend his entire career as a Bill but if Hailee wants their daughter to go to school in CA, then that is very possible. Depends on what they want to do.

[Buffalo716]

4 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

It's nice to think so, but it's not too hard to imagine. He's from California. His wife is from southern California, and wives with babies very often want to be close to home. Imagine the Bills going 10-7 and miss the playoffs. Imagine a second season where they're 9-8 and miss the playoffs. Josh is going into his 10th season in the NFL with no ring and no real reason to believe the Bills are going to get him one. HOF players often ask for a trade in that kind of a situation. 

 

Elway stayed after Shanahan went 8-8 in his first season. But that was Shanahan, and Elway could see he was playing for a genius. 

 

Bills better hope Brady looks like a genius, too. 

 

The bills have been losing by a field goal in a sport that is considered a game of inches 

 

We're not that far off and you can't blame everybody else because he would even blame himself for his 4 turnovers 

 

I think Bill's fandom has a lot of people who don't embrace the good and are always thinking about the bad possibilities which is why this fan base for 5 years has been talking about Josh leaving to Los Angeles 

 

I think Josh is a man of his word and he as always said he wants to finish his career here.. even after the birth of his daughter he said he's going to raise his daughter in Buffalo 

 

And I truly believe he's going to make sure she gets to watch him play in a Bills uniform because it is special to Josh Allen 

 

I think there is less than a 25% chance that he runs himself out of town because it will 100% destroy his lineage in Western New York

1 minute ago, Gregg said:

 

What does Hailee want. You know the deal. Happy wife happy life. For the record I think Allen will spend his entire career as a Bill but if Hailee wants their daughter to go to school in CA, then that is very possible. Depends on what they want to do.

How do you guys know Haley didn't marry Josh because she liked the idea of him being a small town guy 

 

Josh is from firebaugh lol Haley also just had a baby in the prime of her acting career maybe she's not like your typical actress 

 

Firebaugh is way closer to a place like orchard Park than Los Angeles at the end of the day

 

Josh didn't need to build up all this Goodwill just to leave.. he could have left and not re signed his mega 300 million dollar deal 

 

If he wanted to leave, he didn't need to sign long-term.. and I'm pretty sure he will sign again I've never once had an inkling that he is going to leave 

 

Despite what everybody thinks if he forces a trade out of Buffalo it will 100% impact his legacy in the city.. it will severely tarnish his legacy if he forces a trade out 

 

He cares about how the City of Buffalo will remember him.. he certainly cares

Edited July 2 by Buffalo716

[Gregg]

Just now, Buffalo716 said:

 

The bills have been losing by a field goal in a sport that is considered a game of inches 

 

We're not that far off and you can't blame everybody else because he would even blame himself for his 4 turnovers 

 

I think Bill's fandom has a lot of people who don't embrace the good and are always thinking about the bad possibilities which is why this fan base for 5 years has been talking about Josh leaving to Los Angeles 

 

I think Josh is a man of his word and he as always said he wants to finish his career here.. even after the birth of his daughter he said he's going to raise his daughter in Buffalo 

 

And I truly believe he's going to make sure she gets to watch him play in a Bills uniform because it is special to Josh Allen 

 

I think there is less than a 25% chance that he runs himself out of town because it will 100% destroy his lineage in Western New York

How do you guys know Haley didn't marry Josh because she liked the idea of him being a small town guy 

 

Josh is from firebaugh lol Haley also just had a baby in the prime of her acting career maybe she's not like your typical actress 

 

Firebaugh is way closer to a place like orchard Park than Los Angeles at the end of the day

 

Have no idea what they want to do. You may very well be right and they want her to go to school in OP. I do think Allen is a Bill for life. IMHO.