AJ Brown to Pats for 2028 1st & 2027 5th

[HappyDays]

10 minutes ago, ngbills said:

Wrong. Only Bills players get better. Josh when he is in season 18 will still be growing and improving leaps and bounds while Maye after a MVP caliber year in season two has peaked and only has room to get worse not better. 

 

Really tough to predict Maye's trajectory. I will say it's a bad sign when a player suddenly regresses badly. I can't remember any cases where a QB regressed that badly and still became a top level QB. Allen is the gold standard of QB improvement. If you split his first two seasons into roughly four sets of 8 games, each set was better than the last, and then in year three he hit the moon. There were bad games sprinkled in but the trajectory was obvious. Maye on the other hand didn't just have a bad game or two, he was awful for pretty much the entire last month of the season and especially in the playoffs. I was one that was praising Maye in the middle of last season and thought some Bills fans were being too dismissive of the talent he had shown, but that last stretch of games gives me pause. It is kind of like CJ Stroud. The talent is there but he is going to need to prove he can find some of that early magic again before I am going to just buy in. I'm not making any predictions on the Pats this year because I really have no idea which direction Maye will go.

[Bermuda Triangle]

55 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

Diggs isn’t half the WR Brown is right now! And he only was a 1000 yard receiver because Maye willed it to happen he faded badly the last 3 games and the entire playoffs. 

I assumed you're referring to Diggs, but the same is true for Maye.

[ngbills]

8 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Really tough to predict Maye's trajectory. I will say it's a bad sign when a player suddenly regresses badly. I can't remember any cases where a QB regressed that badly and still became a top level QB. Allen is the gold standard of QB improvement. If you split his first two seasons into roughly four sets of 8 games, each set was better than the last, and then in year three he hit the moon. There were bad games sprinkled in but the trajectory was obvious. Maye on the other hand didn't just have a bad game or two, he was awful for pretty much the entire last month of the season and especially in the playoffs. I was one that was praising Maye in the middle of last season and thought some Bills fans were being too dismissive of the talent he had shown, but that last stretch of games gives me pause. It is kind of like CJ Stroud. The talent is there but he is going to need to prove he can find some of that early magic again before I am going to just buy in. I'm not making any predictions on the Pats this year because I really have no idea which direction Maye will go.

Maye had passer ratings of 63, 103, 157 and 129 in the final 4 games of the season. He threw for 380 yards in week 16 over BAL. He threw for 5 TD's in week 17, while completing 19 of 21 passes. Didn't need to do much in week 18 but went 14-18 for 191 yds. He played good enough to beat LAC and again vs a tough HOU defense. Then a snow game vs DEN that he won with his legs to put the game away. And your calling this historically bad regression? I dont think he will ever be better than Allen, maybe because I'm a homer, but this is way better than Allen in year 2. 

[HappyDays]

11 minutes ago, ngbills said:

He played good enough to beat LAC and again vs a tough HOU defense. Then a snow game vs DEN that he won with his legs to put the game away.

 

I'm sorry but he was terrible in the playoffs. Let's not pretend otherwise. Even Pats fans would agree. This is stuff I would laugh at if it came from a Pats homer, I don't really get it coming from a Bills fan. The only reason they made it through the AFC is that he was less bad than Herbert, Stroud, and Stidham. His poor play finally got the result it deserved in the Super Bowl.

 

None of that matters anymore. It's a new season. Maye will get his chance to prove that he is more the player that we saw for the first several months of the season. I genuinely don't have a prediction, it could go either way.

[Einstein]

28 minutes ago, ngbills said:

 He played good enough to beat LAC and again vs a tough HOU defense. 

He was awful in both games and his team bailed him out.

 

He was 58% passing in one of the games you mentioned and 59% in the other. He fumbled 6 times and was intercepted twice in those two games you mentioned. He was also sacked 10 times. He got a couple TD's at the end because Houston gave up from Strouds non-stop turnovers.

[C.Biscuit97]

51 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Really tough to predict Maye's trajectory. I will say it's a bad sign when a player suddenly regresses badly. I can't remember any cases where a QB regressed that badly and still became a top level QB. Allen is the gold standard of QB improvement. If you split his first two seasons into roughly four sets of 8 games, each set was better than the last, and then in year three he hit the moon. There were bad games sprinkled in but the trajectory was obvious. Maye on the other hand didn't just have a bad game or two, he was awful for pretty much the entire last month of the season and especially in the playoffs. I was one that was praising Maye in the middle of last season and thought some Bills fans were being too dismissive of the talent he had shown, but that last stretch of games gives me pause. It is kind of like CJ Stroud. The talent is there but he is going to need to prove he can find some of that early magic again before I am going to just buy in. I'm not making any predictions on the Pats this year because I really have no idea which direction Maye will go.

He was definitely hurt and had some meh wrs around him. I hated the hype he got before last season but he’s legit. 
 

and Brown is a female dog who puts his own interests before the team. But he has top 5 talent and will be on his best behavior. 

Edited June 2 by C.Biscuit97

[Success]

57 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Really tough to predict Maye's trajectory. I will say it's a bad sign when a player suddenly regresses badly. I can't remember any cases where a QB regressed that badly and still became a top level QB. Allen is the gold standard of QB improvement. If you split his first two seasons into roughly four sets of 8 games, each set was better than the last, and then in year three he hit the moon. There were bad games sprinkled in but the trajectory was obvious. Maye on the other hand didn't just have a bad game or two, he was awful for pretty much the entire last month of the season and especially in the playoffs. I was one that was praising Maye in the middle of last season and thought some Bills fans were being too dismissive of the talent he had shown, but that last stretch of games gives me pause. It is kind of like CJ Stroud. The talent is there but he is going to need to prove he can find some of that early magic again before I am going to just buy in. I'm not making any predictions on the Pats this year because I really have no idea which direction Maye will go.

 

I still haven't seen "it" with Maye. I'm probably too biased - but I have always seen him as overhyped.  

 

His best skill is the long ball - which is one of the hardest skills to maintain consistently for an NFL QB.  I don't think his decision-making is very good, he has a somewhat slower release, and he hangs onto the ball for too long. That last part is correctable, but he was a turnover machine in the playoffs - when he finally had to play better teams.

 

I was anticipating a regression this year w/ a tougher schedule - Brown may alleviate that somewhat.  But some are still talking about Maye as a top 5 QB in the league, which I am just not seeing.

 

[Paup 1995MVP]

21 hours ago, NewEra said:

Fine pickup for the Pats.  Let’s hope Leonhard and our bevy of talented DBs are up to the task.  
 

I think we have the talent in the secondary to stop them.  We just need Leonhard to draw up the proper game plan.  

"AJ overrated" Brown.  As my son text me this morning, Benford will have him locked in a phone booth.  Guy has no suddenness to his game in the slightest.  And he is acts like a petulant baby B word.  Guys like him would not have been on an NFL roster in the Jim Kelley era.

[ngbills]

39 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I'm sorry but he was terrible in the playoffs. Let's not pretend otherwise. Even Pats fans would agree. This is stuff I would laugh at if it came from a Pats homer, I don't really get it coming from a Bills fan. The only reason they made it through the AFC is that he was less bad than Herbert, Stroud, and Stidham. His poor play finally got the result it deserved in the Super Bowl.

 

None of that matters anymore. It's a new season. Maye will get his chance to prove that he is more the player that we saw for the first several months of the season. I genuinely don't have a prediction, it could go either way.

 

27 minutes ago, Einstein said:

He was awful in both games and his team bailed him out.

 

He was 58% passing in one of the games you mentioned and 59% in the other. He fumbled 6 times and was intercepted twice in those two games you mentioned. He was also sacked 10 times. He got a couple TD's at the end because Houston gave up from Strouds non-stop turnovers.

Playoffs were not pretty but a win is a win. I would take an ugly Allen win over losing. The playoffs are always gonna be tougher. Allen has had some bad playoff games as well. He was 24-46 passing with an awful fumble in his first playoff game. He was all over the place vs MIA in 2022.

 

My original response was to the statement that Drake Maye showed a historic decline the second half of the season and playoffs compared to Allen only showing only improvement. That is just not true. Allen has had plenty of stretches he struggled including playoff games. Like I said, I take Allen all day over Maye. But Maye is ahead of Allen at this point in their careers. As a Bills fan I hope Maye has hit a ceiling, but there is a good possibility with a better OL and more weapons Maye could still get better. 

[Rigotz]

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

It's a consideration for sure, but the Pats are taking the approach of trying to win a Super Bowl while Maye is on his rookie deal which is absolutely the right strategy. And $20M in dead money isn't all that crazy. That's the combined dead money hit of Taron Johnson and Matt Milano this year. And in 2030 the cap will likely be at least $100M more than it is today.

 

This trade will come down to health. If Brown's knee is okay the Pats just got a bona fide #1 WR for the next three seasons. Maye is a good vertical passer so Brown is a good fit. I'm not going to beat around the bush, this is a great trade for the Pats and makes them a tougher out for us. I still like our chances to win the division though.

 

I could see how you get to that conclusion, I just don't agree.

 

Trading a 1st and 5th for AJ Brown at 29 years old would be fair compensation. Taking on $50M of dead money on top of a big contract makes it a little tougher. They're committed to him financially until he's 36 years old... and he's already not the fastest guy.

 

But then you add in the concerns that he's been a total head case and traded away twice the past 4 years. There's a reason for that. Then you add in his recent knee issues... does that get better over time?

 

To me, it feels steep.

Edited June 2 by Rigotz

[PatsFanNH]

1 hour ago, Bermuda Triangle said:

I assumed you're referring to Diggs, but the same is true for Maye.

With Maye it makes sense, he has never played that many games before ever! And he was playing hurt in the playoffs.. at least after the chargers game where he was “ok” not great but ok.. ✅ 

[PatsFanNH]

8 minutes ago, Rigotz said:

 

I could see how you get to that conclusion, I just don't agree.

 

Trading a 1st and 5th for AJ Brown at 29 years old would be fair compensation. Taking on $50M of dead money on top of a big contract makes it a little tougher. They're committed to him financially until he's 36 years old... and he's already not the fastest guy.

 

But then you add in the concerns that he's been a total head case and traded away twice the past 4 years. There's a reason for that. Then you add in his recent knee issues... does that get better over time?

 

To me, it feels steep.

Where are you getting this information? He has 4. years left on his contract. 2026 is fully guaranteed, 2027 is only 6 million guaranteed, and the last 2 years have no guaranteed money. So basically if he stinks after year 2 they have $0 dead cap hit. But they are only tied to him till he is 33 at most. 

[cle23]

4 hours ago, Rigotz said:

 

 

AJ Brown was a "cheap" trade 4 years ago when the Eagles traded a 1st and 3rd for him. He was 25 years old and getting paid $20M a year.

 

Now he's 29 and the Pats are inheriting $50M in void year dollars 2030-2033. If you're not familiar with what that means, they pay him $20M in 2030 whether he's on the team or not. If he's on the roster, it's all additional. Then $15M, $11M, and $6M in the following years. He'll be in his mid-30's at that point.

 

For some reason, nobody cares about the future on this message board and thinks a 2028 draft pick is soooo much cheaper than a 2027 draft pick. The reality is it all matters and this is not a cheap deal. Especially if that 2028 1st round pick is a top 10.

 

Link: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/player/_/id/29087/aj-brown

 

Void year money is generally from salary converted to bonuses and then spread out over extra years.  If so,  that doesn't transfer to NE. They only inherit salary and any bonuses such as roster bonuses that haven't been paid yet. B

47 minutes ago, Rigotz said:

 

I could see how you get to that conclusion, I just don't agree.

 

Trading a 1st and 5th for AJ Brown at 29 years old would be fair compensation. Taking on $50M of dead money on top of a big contract makes it a little tougher. They're committed to him financially until he's 36 years old... and he's already not the fastest guy.

 

But then you add in the concerns that he's been a total head case and traded away twice the past 4 years. There's a reason for that. Then you add in his recent knee issues... does that get better over time?

 

To me, it feels steep.

 

They don't inherit dead money.  That's why they waited until June 1 so that the dead money hit can be spread out over 2 seasons. 

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, Paup 1995MVP said:

"AJ overrated" Brown.  As my son text me this morning, Benford will have him locked in a phone booth.  Guy has no suddenness to his game in the slightest.  And he is acts like a petulant baby B word.  Guys like him would not have been on an NFL roster in the Jim Kelley era.

I don’t think he’s a tier 1 or even tier 2 WR at this point, but I think he’s in the DJ Moore tier at least.  He’s a big addition to their WR unit and is their best WR.  He’s a good deep ball tracker and Maye throws a great deep ball.  You don’t have to have great separation to be effective making big plays downfield.  Moore is similar in that respect.  He knows how to come down with the ball.  
 

I like Benford covering him too.  I still think he’ll make plenty of big plays for them and help them win games. 

3 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Really tough to predict Maye's trajectory. I will say it's a bad sign when a player suddenly regresses badly. I can't remember any cases where a QB regressed that badly and still became a top level QB. Allen is the gold standard of QB improvement. If you split his first two seasons into roughly four sets of 8 games, each set was better than the last, and then in year three he hit the moon. There were bad games sprinkled in but the trajectory was obvious. Maye on the other hand didn't just have a bad game or two, he was awful for pretty much the entire last month of the season and especially in the playoffs. I was one that was praising Maye in the middle of last season and thought some Bills fans were being too dismissive of the talent he had shown, but that last stretch of games gives me pause. It is kind of like CJ Stroud. The talent is there but he is going to need to prove he can find some of that early magic again before I am going to just buy in. I'm not making any predictions on the Pats this year because I really have no idea which direction Maye will go.

I don’t think he’s “regressed that badly”.  He had a poor stretch of play that coincided with terrible offensive line play while also playing against tougher competition than they had played all season.  
 

I think we’ll see many more good/great games out of him than we’ll see meh/poor games out of him.  Would be nice if he turned into stroud though.  

[oldmanfan]

Maye has what it takes.  Brown will help him somewhat but I remain of the opinion that Brown is overrated.  

[PatsFanNH]

2 hours ago, Success said:

 

I still haven't seen "it" with Maye. I'm probably too biased - but I have always seen him as overhyped.  

 

His best skill is the long ball - which is one of the hardest skills to maintain consistently for an NFL QB.  I don't think his decision-making is very good, he has a somewhat slower release, and he hangs onto the ball for too long. That last part is correctable, but he was a turnover machine in the playoffs - when he finally had to play better teams.

 

I was anticipating a regression this year w/ a tougher schedule - Brown may alleviate that somewhat.  But some are still talking about Maye as a top 5 QB in the league, which I am just not seeing.

 

He had 0 turnovers in the AFCCG game. He played conservative and looked awful. 
 

he looked no worse than pretty much every other QB against that Texans D. He made plays when he absolutely had too.. putting up 22 points on that’s D is hard to do PERIOD last year. 
 

but he had a very tough playoffs and went from playing the bottom D in the league to the top 5 in the NFL..  in hine site expecting him look good when his Online looked awful and facing the best D he has ever faced may have been hubris on my part.

[nuklz2594]

23 hours ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

Diggs or Deebo Samuel 

still pissed we did not get ladd. ladd, Shakir, and DJ Moore....wr room top 5

[nuklz2594]

6 hours ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

If you know football and watched the games, you realize NE was maybe the luckiest team since the NYG led by Kerry Collins to make a SB. When they played a complete team down the stretch they lost. Including the Bills. I have zero doubt that NE takes a huge step back and doesn’t win 10 games this year. 

rex Grossman lead bears to a super bowl...

[YoloinOhio]

Medicals

 

 

[kitchen sink]

Let's see who has he better next two seasons, DJ Moore or AJ Brown, then we can know for sure who made the better deal.