Bills Schedule Thoughts & Final Prediction

[corta765]

The Bills schedule will officially come out in the evening on May 14, although throughout the week leaks will of course come as the Giants & Cowboys were just announced as the Week 1 Sunday Night Football game. It is very likely by the time the actual schedule is released Thursday night we already have a fully leaked schedule as it usually goes that way. I am willing to bet as all the major networks drop a few of their games in the next few days the Bills will be in one or two of those whether it is NBC or a Thursday Night Prime Game.

 

Before I get into my Bills schedule thoughts be careful of leaks and whether the account is real or not. It is a favorite this time of the year where a fake account gets people for an hour. @OzzyNFL is one of the best on twitter/X as is @nerdingonNFL, also many of the local reporters for both the Bills but also our division foes seem to get stuff ahead of others so you can usually trust them. Manish Mehta who is an ex Jets beat reporter seemingly gets their schedule like 5 hrs in advance which is almost always spot on with the Bills games. The leaks are fun, just make sure your reading a real account haha.

 

I will have my final prediction below but here are a few Bills tidbits and thoughts:

• The Bills have 8 home games and 9 road games this year as it is the AFCs turn to play the 17th game on the road.
• The Bills NFC crossover is at the LA Rams because of the way it worked out and god hates us apparently lol
• NFL teams can have a maximum of 6 night games initially (Sunday Night, Monday, or Thursday), but can be flexed into a 7th and depending on when the Xmas or Thanksgiving game is it may not qualify into that requirement. So week 18 the Sunday Night Football game is always TBD and a team that has played 6 primetime games already could have a 7th.
• The Bills are not going overseas this year
• The NFL has approved a game on Thanksgiving Eve, they are playing Christmas Day with at least two games possibly a third plus most likely a game Dec 26 on Saturday, and a primetime game week 18 on Saturday. 
• The NFL defines primetime window though as any night game OR 4:25 on Sunday. The 4:25 window is actually the biggest draw the league has which is why KC Buffalo has turned into the CBS 4:25 November classic is it draws more eyeballs then putting the game at Sunday or Monday Night.
• Broadcast partners can request specific games but they cannot lock them in until after the schedule is announced. For insistence if the NFL wants to flex a Monday Night game, CBS can protect Bills Chiefs at 4:25. But until the schedule is released if Amazon bids a billion dollars to want that game, CBS can request to try and keep it but it is not guaranteed to get it.
• Mike North's interview with Sal C & Matt Bove was far more cryptic then some years in terms of the Bills. The three biggest takeaways I had were:
  • The Chiefs & Bills will be at least mid season this year to ensure Mahomes is back healthy
  • The Ravens Bills will probably be later in the season given the importance of that matchup whereas the prior two years it has been early
  • The Bills will be in some holiday window after avoiding it for years. How that shakes it we shall see, but it was strongly implied the Bills are due for at least one of the hoilday's if not potentially both.

 

My predictions have been decently accurate given the amount of games, times, etc.. typically getting 2-3 weeks perfect and 4-6 windows in terms of time or night right. Here is Corta's 2026-27 prediction:

 

 

 

Here are a few things on why I believe the schedule falls this way:

• The Bills have opened at home the prior two years and the NFL tries its best to rotate home and away as close as possible. Conversely the Bills have been in primetime three of the last four years so I think they get a 1:00pm start to the happiness of most fans
• I had the Bills at the Jets but with the Giants opening at home that night that is now out I have the Bills opening in Miami week 1 for the first time since 1993.
• With the new stadium there is precedent that the NFL lets the team have a week to get everything ready before a grand opening week 2 in primetime. I think the same happens here and they have the Bills open on Monday Night Football as it can be center of the entire days sports coverage nationally and they can have the crew there all day.
• Minnesota feels like that weird opponent we play on Monday or Thursday that is not a top foe but one that still gets eyeballs with the Bills mixed in the way Houston or Atlanta was last year.
• I am going against the grain again and KC-BUF is back on Monday Night as that is the only broadcast that never has gotten this matchup with a normal full house. Remember 2020 was a Monday Night Game but COVID eliminated the fans as the Titans rule breaking forced the game to a Tuesday.
• New England week 18 is a slam dunk as the NFL hopes they battle for a division crown and the other matchup is either 4:25 national or at night. I think NBC wins out and gets it with the Bills in New England this time but getting the finale at home this year instead.
• Finally I think the Bills not only get Thanksgiving but also Xmas. They basically get two mini byes as they play the Rams Thanksgiving Eve as the NFL goes for broke with a major matchup for the first game on Thanksgiving Eve and then Xmas Buffalo plays at Green Bay either at 4:25 on Xmas Day or on Saturday in a standalone spot.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Good guess. 

Agree with a lot of your logic.

 

Selfishly I am hoping the Green Bay game is in Sept or Oct.  I am going and don't really want to deal with the cold in that old stadiium.

 

[Lost]

I love how the Bills get shafted and always have to play the Chiefs when everyone is healthy and back from suspension.   

Edited May 11 by Lost

[corta765]

Just now, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Good guess. 

Agree with a lot of your logic.

 

Selfishly I am hoping the Green Bay game is in Sept or Oct.  I am going and don't really want to deal with the cold in that old stadiium.

 

I hear you with GB but I know enough of the matchups historically that the NFL even tries to rotate the time of the year. The last four matchups vs Green Bay went like this:

2022 Green Bay at Buffalo late October

2018 Green Bay home late Sept 

2014 Green Bay at Buffalo December

2010 Green Bay home early September

 

Just feels even if not Xmas it is later in the year.

Just now, Lost said:

I love how the Bills get shafted and always have to play the Chiefs when everyone is healthy and back from suspension.   

 

It has been brought up quite a bit how the NFL schedule wise wants the best matchups with KC to be later so Mahomes is there. It is complete BS but it is 100% what they are doing.

[JP51]

I am not going to predict the whole season, but I do have a feeling on the opener... Week 1 MNF rematch vs the Ravens (BV before vrabel) I had the Pats in this slot.. still a possibility, but... I think they down play that... 

[Scott7975]

18 minutes ago, corta765 said:

The Bills schedule will officially come out in the evening on May 14, although throughout the week leaks will of course come as the Giants & Cowboys were just announced as the Week 1 Sunday Night Football game. It is very likely by the time the actual schedule is released Thursday night we already have a fully leaked schedule as it usually goes that way. I am willing to bet as all the major networks drop a few of their games in the next few days the Bills will be in one or two of those whether it is NBC or a Thursday Night Prime Game.

 

Before I get into my Bills schedule thoughts be careful of leaks and whether the account is real or not. It is a favorite this time of the year where a fake account gets people for an hour. @OzzyNFL is one of the best on twitter/X as is @nerdingonNFL, also many of the local reporters for both the Bills but also our division foes seem to get stuff ahead of others so you can usually trust them. Manish Mehta who is an ex Jets beat reporter seemingly gets their schedule like 5 hrs in advance which is almost always spot on with the Bills games. The leaks are fun, just make sure your reading a real account haha.

 

I will have my final prediction below but here are a few Bills tidbits and thoughts:

• The Bills have 8 home games and 9 road games this year as it is the AFCs turn to play the 17th game on the road.
• The Bills NFC crossover is at the LA Rams because of the way it worked out and god hates us apparently lol
• NFL teams can have a maximum of 6 night games initially (Sunday Night, Monday, or Thursday), but can be flexed into a 7th and depending on when the Xmas or Thanksgiving game is it may not qualify into that requirement. So week 18 the Sunday Night Football game is always TBD and a team that has played 6 primetime games already could have a 7th.
• The Bills are not going overseas this year
• The NFL has approved a game on Thanksgiving Eve, they are playing Christmas Day with at least two games possibly a third plus most likely a game Dec 26 on Saturday, and a primetime game week 18 on Saturday. 
• The NFL defines primetime window though as any night game OR 4:25 on Sunday. The 4:25 window is actually the biggest draw the league has which is why KC Buffalo has turned into the CBS 4:25 November classic is it draws more eyeballs then putting the game at Sunday or Monday Night.
• Broadcast partners can request specific games but they cannot lock them in until after the schedule is announced. For insistence if the NFL wants to flex a Monday Night game, CBS can protect Bills Chiefs at 4:25. But until the schedule is released if Amazon bids a billion dollars to want that game, CBS can request to try and keep it but it is not guaranteed to get it.
• Mike North's interview with Sal C & Matt Bove was far more cryptic then some years in terms of the Bills. The three biggest takeaways I had were:
  • The Chiefs & Bills will be at least mid season this year to ensure Mahomes is back healthy
  • The Ravens Bills will probably be later in the season given the importance of that matchup whereas the prior two years it has been early
  • The Bills will be in some holiday window after avoiding it for years. How that shakes it we shall see, but it was strongly implied the Bills are due for at least one of the hoilday's if not potentially both.

 

My predictions have been decently accurate given the amount of games, times, etc.. typically getting 2-3 weeks perfect and 4-6 windows in terms of time or night right. Here is Corta's 2026-27 prediction:

 

 

 

Here are a few things on why I believe the schedule falls this way:

• The Bills have opened at home the prior two years and the NFL tries its best to rotate home and away as close as possible. Conversely the Bills have been in primetime three of the last four years so I think they get a 1:00pm start to the happiness of most fans
• I had the Bills at the Jets but with the Giants opening at home that night that is now out I have the Bills opening in Miami week 1 for the first time since 1993.
• With the new stadium there is precedent that the NFL lets the team have a week to get everything ready before a grand opening week 2 in primetime. I think the same happens here and they have the Bills open on Monday Night Football as it can be center of the entire days sports coverage nationally and they can have the crew there all day.
• Minnesota feels like that weird opponent we play on Monday or Thursday that is not a top foe but one that still gets eyeballs with the Bills mixed in the way Houston or Atlanta was last year.
• I am going against the grain again and KC-BUF is back on Monday Night as that is the only broadcast that never has gotten this matchup with a normal full house. Remember 2020 was a Monday Night Game but COVID eliminated the fans as the Titans rule breaking forced the game to a Tuesday.
• New England week 18 is a slam dunk as the NFL hopes they battle for a division crown and the other matchup is either 4:25 national or at night. I think NBC wins out and gets it with the Bills in New England this time but getting the finale at home this year instead.
• Finally I think the Bills not only get Thanksgiving but also Xmas. They basically get two mini byes as they play the Rams Thanksgiving Eve as the NFL goes for broke with a major matchup for the first game on Thanksgiving Eve and then Xmas Buffalo plays at Green Bay either at 4:25 on Xmas Day or on Saturday in a standalone spot.

 

I never really try to guess schedules because its just not my thing. I do think of some logical stuff and it probably follows yours somewhat. I figured the NFL would want to showcase the home opener in the new stadium on Primetime. Although I thought it would be week 1. You logic makes some sense in that we have had a home opener the last couple years. My only other logic was have the Pats on the last game of the season as they seem to be the two power teams in the AFCE so it could be for the division.

 

Your stuff looks all reasonable to me.

Edited May 11 by Scott7975

[Lost]

15 minutes ago, corta765 said:

 

It has been brought up quite a bit how the NFL schedule wise wants the best matchups with KC to be later so Mahomes is there. It is complete BS but it is 100% what they are doing.

 

Why do I get the feeling the NFL wouldn't be so considering of the Bills schedule if Josh Allen was out for a 3rd of the season?

[Coach Tuesday]

Selfishly am hoping for an earlier Vegas trip than December.   But I'll manage.

[Professor Worthington]

Don’t you think the NFL will want to feature the Bills new home earlier in the season when weather is good? I agree, however, it is unlikely that we will have a third straight opening weekend at home. Since I’m a new season ticket holder, I locked down an Airbnb a while ago for the first month hoping to catch 3 games,which is unrealistic I know, but at least gimme 2!

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

1 hour ago, corta765 said:

The Bills schedule will officially come out in the evening on May 14, although throughout the week leaks will of course come as the Giants & Cowboys were just announced as the Week 1 Sunday Night Football game. It is very likely by the time the actual schedule is released Thursday night we already have a fully leaked schedule as it usually goes that way. I am willing to bet as all the major networks drop a few of their games in the next few days the Bills will be in one or two of those whether it is NBC or a Thursday Night Prime Game.

 

Before I get into my Bills schedule thoughts be careful of leaks and whether the account is real or not. It is a favorite this time of the year where a fake account gets people for an hour. @OzzyNFL is one of the best on twitter/X as is @nerdingonNFL, also many of the local reporters for both the Bills but also our division foes seem to get stuff ahead of others so you can usually trust them. Manish Mehta who is an ex Jets beat reporter seemingly gets their schedule like 5 hrs in advance which is almost always spot on with the Bills games. The leaks are fun, just make sure your reading a real account haha.

 

I will have my final prediction below but here are a few Bills tidbits and thoughts:

• The Bills have 8 home games and 9 road games this year as it is the AFCs turn to play the 17th game on the road.
• The Bills NFC crossover is at the LA Rams because of the way it worked out and god hates us apparently lol
• NFL teams can have a maximum of 6 night games initially (Sunday Night, Monday, or Thursday), but can be flexed into a 7th and depending on when the Xmas or Thanksgiving game is it may not qualify into that requirement. So week 18 the Sunday Night Football game is always TBD and a team that has played 6 primetime games already could have a 7th.
• The Bills are not going overseas this year
• The NFL has approved a game on Thanksgiving Eve, they are playing Christmas Day with at least two games possibly a third plus most likely a game Dec 26 on Saturday, and a primetime game week 18 on Saturday. 
• The NFL defines primetime window though as any night game OR 4:25 on Sunday. The 4:25 window is actually the biggest draw the league has which is why KC Buffalo has turned into the CBS 4:25 November classic is it draws more eyeballs then putting the game at Sunday or Monday Night.
• Broadcast partners can request specific games but they cannot lock them in until after the schedule is announced. For insistence if the NFL wants to flex a Monday Night game, CBS can protect Bills Chiefs at 4:25. But until the schedule is released if Amazon bids a billion dollars to want that game, CBS can request to try and keep it but it is not guaranteed to get it.
• Mike North's interview with Sal C & Matt Bove was far more cryptic then some years in terms of the Bills. The three biggest takeaways I had were:
  • The Chiefs & Bills will be at least mid season this year to ensure Mahomes is back healthy
  • The Ravens Bills will probably be later in the season given the importance of that matchup whereas the prior two years it has been early
  • The Bills will be in some holiday window after avoiding it for years. How that shakes it we shall see, but it was strongly implied the Bills are due for at least one of the hoilday's if not potentially both.

 

My predictions have been decently accurate given the amount of games, times, etc.. typically getting 2-3 weeks perfect and 4-6 windows in terms of time or night right. Here is Corta's 2026-27 prediction:

 

 

 

Here are a few things on why I believe the schedule falls this way:

• The Bills have opened at home the prior two years and the NFL tries its best to rotate home and away as close as possible. Conversely the Bills have been in primetime three of the last four years so I think they get a 1:00pm start to the happiness of most fans
• I had the Bills at the Jets but with the Giants opening at home that night that is now out I have the Bills opening in Miami week 1 for the first time since 1993.
• With the new stadium there is precedent that the NFL lets the team have a week to get everything ready before a grand opening week 2 in primetime. I think the same happens here and they have the Bills open on Monday Night Football as it can be center of the entire days sports coverage nationally and they can have the crew there all day.
• Minnesota feels like that weird opponent we play on Monday or Thursday that is not a top foe but one that still gets eyeballs with the Bills mixed in the way Houston or Atlanta was last year.
• I am going against the grain again and KC-BUF is back on Monday Night as that is the only broadcast that never has gotten this matchup with a normal full house. Remember 2020 was a Monday Night Game but COVID eliminated the fans as the Titans rule breaking forced the game to a Tuesday.
• New England week 18 is a slam dunk as the NFL hopes they battle for a division crown and the other matchup is either 4:25 national or at night. I think NBC wins out and gets it with the Bills in New England this time but getting the finale at home this year instead.
• Finally I think the Bills not only get Thanksgiving but also Xmas. They basically get two mini byes as they play the Rams Thanksgiving Eve as the NFL goes for broke with a major matchup for the first game on Thanksgiving Eve and then Xmas Buffalo plays at Green Bay either at 4:25 on Xmas Day or on Saturday in a standalone spot.

 

Two comments:

 

I'd be surprised if the Bills want their first home game to be at night only because of all the extra drinking that occurs with night games and extra issues the partying can create.  Need to make sure their drunk tank is big enough.  LOL.  Think if I'm in charge I'd prefer to open with a Sunday 1:00 game to make sure everything functions smoothly.

 

CBS can take one game every year that no one can take from them, would be surprised if they'd give up Bills-Chiefs.  Last two years they haven't allowed anyone else to touch that game

[Gregg]

2 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

Two comments:

 

I'd be surprised if the Bills want their first home game to be at night only because of all the extra drinking that occurs with night games and extra issues the partying can create.  Need to make sure their drunk tank is big enough.  LOL.  Think if I'm in charge I'd prefer to open with a Sunday 1:00 game to make sure everything functions smoothly.

 

CBS can take one game every year that no one can take from them, would be surprised if they'd give up Bills-Chiefs.  Last two years they haven't allowed anyone else to touch that game

 

A few weeks ago the Bills asked the league that the first home game in the new stadium be in primetime. I am sure the league will let them have it. I doubt the first home game will be a 1:00 or 4:25 start. 

[Kirby Jackson]

5 minutes ago, Gregg said:

 

A few weeks ago the Bills asked the league that the first home game in the new stadium be in primetime. I am sure the league will let them have it. I doubt the first home game will be a 1:00 or 4:25 start. 

Week 2 Monday Night makes sense. A standalone game where they can use pregame to talk about it. 

[corta765]

1 hour ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Selfishly am hoping for an earlier Vegas trip than December.   But I'll manage.

My thought was Mendoza is probably playing then so NFL gets Josh v #1 pick

[Gregg]

1 minute ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Week 2 Monday Night makes sense. A standalone game where they can use pregame to talk about it. 

 

The only problem with Monday night is fans will be coming home from work/school and many will probably have to rush to get to the stadium. Do it for SNF on a Sunday when most fans are off. They can take their time getting to the stadium, enjoy the tailgating, and then go into the stadium early if they want to check the place out before going to their seats. I think SNF makes more sense, so fans have the time to really check the stadium out. That would be hard to do for a Monday or Thursday game given the work/school factor.

[corta765]

41 minutes ago, Professor Worthington said:

Don’t you think the NFL will want to feature the Bills new home earlier in the season when weather is good? I agree, however, it is unlikely that we will have a third straight opening weekend at home. Since I’m a new season ticket holder, I locked down an Airbnb a while ago for the first month hoping to catch 3 games,which is unrealistic I know, but at least gimme 2!

4 of the first 9 are home which given the NFC having 9 home games isn’t too bad.

 

i did really look is Buffalo hint enough early but the league LOVES Buffalo snow game so I think they angle for that too 

[dave mcbride]

Great stuff. My larger takeaway: the Bills have an absolutely brutal schedule this year.

[Kirby Jackson]

6 minutes ago, Gregg said:

 

The only problem with Monday night is fans will be coming home from work/school and many will probably have to rush to get to the stadium. Do it for SNF on a Sunday when most fans are off. They can take their time getting to the stadium, enjoy the tailgating, and then go into the stadium early if they want to check the place out before going to their seats. I think SNF makes more sense, so fans have the time to really check the stadium out. That would be hard to do for a Monday or Thursday game given the work/school factor.

Yeah, it becomes a question of “what’s the goal?” If the goal is ease on the fans attending, Sunday is the answer. If they want more time to talk about and feature the stadium, Thursday or Monday works better. They have extended pregame shows where they won’t be filled up with highlights of the action from the day. 

[BuffaloBillyG]

I don't know. I can't see the NFL scheduling 5 of the first 7 games as road games with the new stadium. I think if anything, we see the schedule front loaded with home games. 

 

Pats definitely agree as the week 18 game. 

[Kirby Jackson]

1 minute ago, dave mcbride said:

Great stuff. My larger takeaway: the Bills have an absolutely brutal schedule this year.

This was a “Billsy” outcome to the schedule. Some years there is a massive benefit to a 2nd place schedule vs. a 1st place schedule. This year the Bills get: at Rams, at Houston and Baltimore at home. The Pats get: at Seattle, at Jacksonville and Pittsburgh at home. I would trade schedules with them today. 

[bills6969]

Having to play at Miami in September is devil’s work