Thrivefourfive Posted May 4 Posted May 4 7 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said: So, does this mean we are the Cleveland Cavs of the NFL? That's... depressing. Better than being the Cleveland Browns of the NFL at least. 2 Quote
SoCal Deek Posted May 4 Posted May 4 So you’re saying if we were in the English Premier League we’d have a bunch of trophies! They don’t have playoffs. Quote
hondo in seattle Posted May 4 Posted May 4 1 hour ago, BearNorth said: 8-6 in the playoffs could lead to that, esp when KC was 13-3 over the same time period. On the one hand, since 2020 the Bills under McDermott have the best regular‑season win percentage in all of American major‑league sports, ahead of teams coached by people like Andy Reid, Nick Sirianni, Dan Campbell, Erik Spoelstra, Michael Malone, Dave Roberts, and all the other great coaches in American athletics. That doesn’t happen by accident. On the other hand, people point to 8–8 in the playoffs as if it wipes all of that out. But the playoffs are a completely different beast: every opponent is good, often healthier, often with matchup advantages, and the outcomes frequently swing on a few weird bounces, bad calls, or key injuries. From a statistical standpoint, 16 games is an insignificant sample size. Over a sample that small, even a truly great team can look mediocre purely by random variation. If you flip a coin 16 times, getting eight heads doesn’t prove anything. It’s exactly what you expect a lot of the time. In the same way, .500 over 16 high‑variance playoff games doesn’t come close to disproving six years of elite‑level performance. 3 1 Quote
Mikie2times Posted May 4 Posted May 4 (edited) 57 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said: On the one hand, since 2020 the Bills under McDermott have the best regular‑season win percentage in all of American major‑league sports, ahead of teams coached by people like Andy Reid, Nick Sirianni, Dan Campbell, Erik Spoelstra, Michael Malone, Dave Roberts, and all the other great coaches in American athletics. That doesn’t happen by accident. On the other hand, people point to 8–8 in the playoffs as if it wipes all of that out. But the playoffs are a completely different beast: every opponent is good, often healthier, often with matchup advantages, and the outcomes frequently swing on a few weird bounces, bad calls, or key injuries. From a statistical standpoint, 16 games is an insignificant sample size. Over a sample that small, even a truly great team can look mediocre purely by random variation. If you flip a coin 16 times, getting eight heads doesn’t prove anything. It’s exactly what you expect a lot of the time. In the same way, .500 over 16 high‑variance playoff games doesn’t come close to disproving six years of elite‑level performance. It doesn’t happen by accident. We have the best player at the most important position in the sport. Playing in a division during that time where Tua wasn’t just 2nd, he was above 3rd and 4th by a mile. The AFC east has been bad for the better part of the last 10 years. What should we expect our record to be with that big of an advantage? Edited May 4 by Mikie2times 1 Quote
Gunsgoodtime Posted May 4 Posted May 4 1 hour ago, hondo in seattle said: On the one hand, since 2020 the Bills under McDermott have the best regular‑season win percentage in all of American major‑league sports, ahead of teams coached by people like Andy Reid, Nick Sirianni, Dan Campbell, Erik Spoelstra, Michael Malone, Dave Roberts, and all the other great coaches in American athletics. That doesn’t happen by accident. On the other hand, people point to 8–8 in the playoffs as if it wipes all of that out. But the playoffs are a completely different beast: every opponent is good, often healthier, often with matchup advantages, and the outcomes frequently swing on a few weird bounces, bad calls, or key injuries. From a statistical standpoint, 16 games is an insignificant sample size. Over a sample that small, even a truly great team can look mediocre purely by random variation. If you flip a coin 16 times, getting eight heads doesn’t prove anything. It’s exactly what you expect a lot of the time. In the same way, .500 over 16 high‑variance playoff games doesn’t come close to disproving six years of elite‑level performance. You are right, no accident, it was Josh Allen 1 1 Quote
hondo in seattle Posted May 4 Posted May 4 57 minutes ago, Mikie2times said: It doesn’t happen by accident. We have the best player at the most important position in the sport. Playing in a division during that time where Tua wasn’t just 2nd, he was above 3rd and 4th by a mile. The AFC east has been bad for the better part of the last 10 years. What should we expect our record to be with that big of an advantage? 22 guys start on the Bills offense and defense. One is a superstar. The sum total of the other 21 is ordinary. This is why we don't excel in the playoffs: we have one - and only one playmaker - on the entire team. Other playoff teams have multiple difference makers. Let's look at the record of a good (i.e. Super Bowl winning) GM: Ron Wolf. Wolf found at least one Pro Bowler in every draft. Over his 9 years: he drafted 15 Pro Bowlers who made 30 Pro Bowls. Comparing Beane's record at mining talent in the draft versus Wolf's is like comparing me as a QB to Josh Allen. The D used to be anchored good players like Milano, Poyer, and Hyde. All were Whaley guys. Beane's first ever pick as a GM was fantastic. He's been asleep since then. While 13 seconds and some other events didn't help, McD got fired mostly because of Beane's malfeasance. 1 1 Quote
Kelly No huddle Posted May 4 Posted May 4 (edited) 20 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said: 22 guys start on the Bills offense and defense. One is a superstar. The sum total of the other 21 is ordinary. This is why we don't excel in the playoffs: we have one - and only one playmaker - on the entire team. Other playoff teams have multiple difference makers. Let's look at the record of a good (i.e. Super Bowl winning) GM: Ron Wolf. Wolf found at least one Pro Bowler in every draft. Over his 9 years: he drafted 15 Pro Bowlers who made 30 Pro Bowls. Comparing Beane's record at mining talent in the draft versus Wolf's is like comparing me as a QB to Josh Allen. The D used to be anchored good players like Milano, Poyer, and Hyde. All were Whaley guys. Beane's first ever pick as a GM was fantastic. He's been asleep since then. While 13 seconds and some other events didn't help, McD got fired mostly because of Beane's malfeasance. Beane has been better than Wolf if you look at the record. I'll happily debate that with you. Off the top of my head beane in just the draft has multiple all pro players and pro bowls since his historical 18 class The massive difference, a grand canyon of difference is holmgren & McDermott. Edited May 4 by Kelly No huddle 1 1 Quote
hondo in seattle Posted May 4 Posted May 4 1 minute ago, Kelly No huddle said: Beane has been better than Wolf if you look at the record. I'll happily debate that with you. Off the top of my head beane in just the draft has multiple all pro players and pro bowls since his historical 18 class The massive difference, a grand canyon of difference is holmgren & McDermott. I'm not really interested in 'debating' per se. I don't thrive on debate and, in any case, I want you to be right. But I'm underwhelmed by Beane. I think, overall, he's an average GM and average GMs don't often win Super Bowls. So I'm intrigued why you - an intelligent fan and poster - think something that seems so preposterous to me: that Beane is a better GM than Wolf? 1 Quote
Kelly No huddle Posted May 4 Posted May 4 6 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said: I'm not really interested in 'debating' per se. I don't thrive on debate and, in any case, I want you to be right. But I'm underwhelmed by Beane. I think, overall, he's an average GM and average GMs don't often win Super Bowls. So I'm intrigued why you - an intelligent fan and poster - think something that seems so preposterous to me: that Beane is a better GM than Wolf? A debate is silly. You're correct. A discussion is more friendly 1. I'd guess I'd ask you first where you would rank the bills oline this year ? 2. The betting public has buffalo as an afc favorite. They're 2 or 3 in almost all betting odds to win the super bowl. What's your opinion on this. To me , it feels like cognitive dissonance if you think the roster is avg. 3. Go to most power rankings, espn, cbs, pff, etc. Buffalo is going to be around top 5 4. Beanes two biggest moves outside Allen were absolutely awesome. But derailed with injury or turmoil...Diggs and Von....if Dj moore is 1200 yds and 10tds, that's now 3. 5. James Cook is a superstar 6. I think Ed Oliver and Spencer brown are blue chip talents. For whatever reason others dont view them that way. I personally think Spencer brown is the best rt in the nfl. 7. They beat kc every year in the regular season. Including 2x they very much handled them. I feel like this is a massive indictment more than anything on McDermott That's a lot. I'll let you respond and have the last word 2 Quote
hondo in seattle Posted May 4 Posted May 4 1 minute ago, Kelly No huddle said: A debate is silly. You're correct. A discussion is more friendly 1. I'd guess I'd ask you first where you would rank the bills oline this year ? 2. The betting public has buffalo as an afc favorite. They're 2 or 3 in almost all betting odds to win the super bowl. What's your opinion on this. To me , it feels like cognitive dissonance if you think the roster is avg. 3. Go to most power rankings, espn, cbs, pff, etc. Buffalo is going to be around top 5 4. Beanes two biggest moves outside Allen were absolutely awesome. But derailed with injury or turmoil...Diggs and Von....if Dj moore is 1200 yds and 10tds, that's now 3. 5. James Cook is a superstar 6. I think Ed Oliver and Spencer brown are blue chip talents. For whatever reason others dont view them that way. I personally think Spencer brown is the best rt in the nfl. 7. They beat kc every year in the regular season. Including 2x they very much handled them. I feel like this is a massive indictment more than anything on McDermott That's a lot. I'll let you respond and have the last word Kelly, I don't need the last word though I appreciate the offer. Very gentlemanly! Note that none of your bullet points suggest Beane is better than Wolf. 1. I think the Bills OL has been good the past two years. I think earlier in Josh's career it was terrible. I think it was criminal that Beane didn't fix it faster. When you find your franchise QB, your next priority must be to get him a bodyguard. 2. I don't care what bettors says. I do think Josh elevates the team because, as you point out, he plays the most important position. I think our chances this year are more or less what they were other years. Maybe less. 3. I don't care what power rankers say. They're just fans who get paid. But #5 doesn't get us a Lombardi. 4. The Diggs move was necessary - Josh needed a target - but a mixed blessing. At the end, Beane effectively paid Diggs $31 million dollars to go play for another team. That's a massive screw up. The Von signing was a failure. Think of the opportunity cost: who else could we have signed if we weren't wasting money on an oft-injured edge who was in his declining years? 5. Cook is a good back but he's no superstar. OJ was a superstar. Still, Cook is an excellent player but his presence on the field was balanced by non-excellent players like, for example, too-slow-to-separate Keon Coleman or blind Brandin Cooks. 6. Oliver and Brown are undeniably good. Not great, but much appreciated on a team that doesn't have enough good players. 7. The fact that we beat the Chiefs in the regular season nearly every year says that McD is capable of outcoaching the dynamic duo of Reid & Spags. The fact that we lose to them in the playoffs shows the difference between a team with multiple Pro Bowl type playmakers (Mahomes, Kelce, Chris Jones, Humphrey, Cheetah) versus a team with one (Allen). Lady Luck hasn't been on our side either. But, look, neither of us is going to persuade the other. And it's all water under the bridge now. I hope Lady Luck changes her tune and gets on our bandwagon. And I hope Carmichael helps Brady scheme a more dynamic passing attack and Leonhard's aggressiveness leads to better defensive results. And I hope Beane, after years of meh drafts, has struck gold with this one. 2 Quote
Kelly No huddle Posted May 4 Posted May 4 16 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said: Kelly, I don't need the last word though I appreciate the offer. Very gentlemanly! Note that none of your bullet points suggest Beane is better than Wolf. 1. I think the Bills OL has been good the past two years. I think earlier in Josh's career it was terrible. I think it was criminal that Beane didn't fix it faster. When you find your franchise QB, your next priority must be to get him a bodyguard. 2. I don't care what bettors says. I do think Josh elevates the team because, as you point out, he plays the most important position. I think our chances this year are more or less what they were other years. Maybe less. 3. I don't care what power rankers say. They're just fans who get paid. But #5 doesn't get us a Lombardi. 4. The Diggs move was necessary - Josh needed a target - but a mixed blessing. At the end, Beane effectively paid Diggs $31 million dollars to go play for another team. That's a massive screw up. The Von signing was a failure. Think of the opportunity cost: who else could we have signed if we weren't wasting money on an oft-injured edge who was in his declining years? 5. Cook is a good back but he's no superstar. OJ was a superstar. Still, Cook is an excellent player but his presence on the field was balanced by non-excellent players like, for example, too-slow-to-separate Keon Coleman or blind Brandin Cooks. 6. Oliver and Brown are undeniably good. Not great, but much appreciated on a team that doesn't have enough good players. 7. The fact that we beat the Chiefs in the regular season nearly every year says that McD is capable of outcoaching the dynamic duo of Reid & Spags. The fact that we lose to them in the playoffs shows the difference between a team with multiple Pro Bowl type playmakers (Mahomes, Kelce, Chris Jones, Humphrey, Cheetah) versus a team with one (Allen). Lady Luck hasn't been on our side either. But, look, neither of us is going to persuade the other. And it's all water under the bridge now. I hope Lady Luck changes her tune and gets on our bandwagon. And I hope Carmichael helps Brady scheme a more dynamic passing attack and Leonhard's aggressiveness leads to better defensive results. And I hope Beane, after years of meh drafts, has struck gold with this one. what's your opinion on this draft class? And how good would this class need to be for you to see buffalo winning the Superbowl? Quote
hondo in seattle Posted May 4 Posted May 4 2 minutes ago, Kelly No huddle said: what's your opinion on this draft class? And how good would this class need to be for you to see buffalo winning the Superbowl? Because I only watch highlights of our draft picks, I have to confess my record of evaluating drafts isn't very good. Recognizing my own ineptitude, I try to remain neutral about drafts for a year or two. I think the Bills are one of the teams that could win the SB this year if the rookies contribute mightily, Leonhard is a better defensive coordinator than I think he'll be, Carmichael figures out how to scheme our wideouts open, and a bunch of other things. Unlike hockey where teams play best-of-seven, the NFL does one-and-done. And given the variables of football, the best team doesn't always win and move on to the next round. So there are a lot of teams that could conceivably make a playoff run with some luck. The Bills are one of them. I just don't think our chances are great, even if the Beane's had one of his better drafts. But I'm a fan. I live in hope. Why do you think this was a good draft? Was it good enough to get us over the hump? Quote
Kelly No huddle Posted May 4 Posted May 4 (edited) 42 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said: Because I only watch highlights of our draft picks, I have to confess my record of evaluating drafts isn't very good. Recognizing my own ineptitude, I try to remain neutral about drafts for a year or two. I think the Bills are one of the teams that could win the SB this year if the rookies contribute mightily, Leonhard is a better defensive coordinator than I think he'll be, Carmichael figures out how to scheme our wideouts open, and a bunch of other things. Unlike hockey where teams play best-of-seven, the NFL does one-and-done. And given the variables of football, the best team doesn't always win and move on to the next round. So there are a lot of teams that could conceivably make a playoff run with some luck. The Bills are one of them. I just don't think our chances are great, even if the Beane's had one of his better drafts. But I'm a fan. I live in hope. Why do you think this was a good draft? Was it good enough to get us over the hump? On paper the defense desperately needed youth and that was accomplished. I personally wanted Casius Howell ( more a speed rush de from texas A&M) but liked the Parker pick. I didn't love it tho. It could very possibly be similar to the Chiefs draft in 2022, which was a big part of their transition after tyreek. Especially on defense. Skyler Bell and IGB were home runs imo and if they live up to their potential should help a ton. My only skepticism is with Parker. Im not skeptical about him being solid, but hes gotta be a serious presence from day 1. Similar to what Rousseau was as a rookie. He needs to be a player ppl around the league plan for. Not all pro, but a serious pass rusher. I think hes capable and we should expect that from beane. We can't have our top pick at de only getting like 2 sacks and just kinda out there. Even I'll admit that beane has been kind of meh the past few years when it comes to the draft , and this one has to be a home run pretty much across the board. On paper , I do think it's capable of that , but it obviously has to manifest, especially in january... I think it could be his best class since 18. But again we'll see. If igb is as good as I think , he'll transform the defense overnight. His pure man covg allowed the lowest comp % in college football last year if im not mistaken. I can't remember the exact statistic, but it was better than delanne, the cb kc took in the 1st. If hes good enough to just match up & erase 1 side of the field, and mad max can stay healthy, our team should be playing in sofi stadium This is probably our most talented secondary in a very long time imo. Like since the Winfield/ Clements days Edited May 4 by Kelly No huddle 1 Quote
Puckman5 Posted May 4 Posted May 4 11 hours ago, Buffalo716 said: It's a game of inches in the postseason We played the Chiefs multiple times with seven or eight players dinged up.. key contributors who were banged up or didn't play with fresh injuries Starters who didn't play.. we trotted out AJ Klein.. played without a starting corner and a starting safety In a game of inches that's too much to overcome.. that's the history of our recent postseason shortcomings Look at the top level talent for the Super bowl winners the last 7 years they all have at least three all pros most of them have four five or six The last two times we played the Chiefs in the postseason we were way more injured than they were in a game of inches... Lost by a field goal... We didn't lose by 15 we lost by three being severely outmanned.. that's the difference in a game of inches Last year the Bills thoroughly outplayed the Denver broncos but we had five turnovers on offense.. the game doesn't even go to overtime without five offensive turnovers The bills would win in regulation.. the last 3 postseasons nothing has gone right for the bills ... 4 post seasons ago the team was mentally worn out because they saw damar Hamlin basically die on the field 13 seconds was the Bills best chance but that team was not even as stacked as most Super bowl winners.. that Chief's team had 5 hall of famers including Andy Reid ... The '90s bills had four or five Hall of famers and didn't win a Super bowl The Bills team has 1.. we have the best depth in the NFL not the best high-end talent So you made my point all over again. They were never great when it mattered. Josh has been. Our defense was a sieve against Denver last year. Made Bo Nix look like Joe Montana. You can't wish away injuries. You have to find ways to overcome them. We lost a SB in the 90's to a team with a back up QB. They didn't use it as an excuse. They played showed up and played great defense. Time for Bills to overcome adversity when they need to. 1 Quote
BigDingus Posted May 4 Posted May 4 1 hour ago, Puckman5 said: So you made my point all over again. They were never great when it mattered. Josh has been. Our defense was a sieve against Denver last year. Made Bo Nix look like Joe Montana. You can't wish away injuries. You have to find ways to overcome them. We lost a SB in the 90's to a team with a back up QB. They didn't use it as an excuse. They played showed up and played great defense. Time for Bills to overcome adversity when they need to. Josh was not great against Denver last year. And the defense looks like a sieve when the offense has FIVE turnovers, four of them from Josh... Even if the defense was just average, they would've easily won the game had the offense not turned the ball over so often. The defense was put in a terrible position, yet we're going to blame them... despite the fact they got a stop in OT & gave the ball back to the offense, game on the line, with just needing a FG to win the game? How can you expect to win against the 1 seed on the road when you're turning the ball over FIVE TIMES? Even if you want to hand-wave away the final INT, Josh still had 3 turnovers... one right before half that was very much a turnover a veteran/best QB in the league should never make. Without that one, they would've won. 1 1 1 Quote
Puckman5 Posted May 4 Posted May 4 (edited) 3 hours ago, BigDingus said: Josh was not great against Denver last year. And the defense looks like a sieve when the offense has FIVE turnovers, four of them from Josh... Even if the defense was just average, they would've easily won the game had the offense not turned the ball over so often. The defense was put in a terrible position, yet we're going to blame them... despite the fact they got a stop in OT & gave the ball back to the offense, game on the line, with just needing a FG to win the game? How can you expect to win against the 1 seed on the road when you're turning the ball over FIVE TIMES? Even if you want to hand-wave away the final INT, Josh still had 3 turnovers... one right before half that was very much a turnover a veteran/best QB in the league should never make. Without that one, they would've won. Josh did have two fumbles (the one before half was awful), but he had a 109 passer rating before the Cooks no catch. We scored 30 points on Denver's D, in Denver. Denver was averaging 18.3 points against last year. Do you see where the real problem is? They were averaging 23.6 PPG for last year. We gave up 33. Yea the turnovers hurt, but our defensive failures consistently hurt us. Do you think we would have even made it to that game without JA? This is what a good defense does. It makes the opposing QB less effective. Edited May 4 by Puckman5 1 Quote
NewEra Posted May 4 Posted May 4 17 hours ago, strive_for_five_guy said: Great roster, good coaching GOAT QB, good roster, good coaching 1 1 Quote
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