Embedded -the Bills Draft

[Kelly No huddle]

13 hours ago, GASabresIUFan said:

Had he kept his emotions in check, maybe he wouldn't try to have forced the play before the half against Denver and maybe he wouldn't have made 5 turnovers.  

 

Allen didn't have 5 turnovers. Like literally didn't. 

 

He made 2 really bad decisions,  1 resulting in 3 pts...

 

After the jags game,  it was his 6th straight playoff without a turnover.  That's a nfl record.... 

 

In fact , I specifically remember telling my brother after the jaguar's game that if allen made a couple mistakes in the next round that people around the league and fans even bills , fans would still blame him... even tho its an insane unrealistic standard no qb has ever done...

 

He walked off the field once again with a lead with four minutes to go & the defense failed..

 

He then threw two dots in ot , literally perfect passes that got into field goal range and cooks dropped one which was controversial and didn't get two feet in on the play before...

 

Getting extremely tired of this narrative.  Especially when Kelly went to 4 superbowls with a 14 td to 13 turnovers ratio from 90-93

 

I'm hearing another narrative that because beane said he wanted a pass rusher & corner before day 2 that this means he wasn't taking bpa. 

 

It's not mutually exclusive,  as the board is already set in tiers most likely days or weeks prior. 

 

He's obviously not going to trade down if his board didn't have a specific tier of players that he felt comfortable with in a certain range...

 

 

Edited May 2 by Kelly No huddle

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, Kelly No huddle said:

 

I'm hearing another narrative that because beane said he wanted a pass rusher & corner before day 2 that this means he wasn't taking bpa. 

 

It's not mutually exclusive,  as the board is already set in tiers most likely days or weeks prior. 

 

 

So conveniently the two positions he wanted were just those tiers? I do think there is an argument the edge rushers were among the top cluster of guys at the start of day. But Beane said himself that at corner it was more that he felt there was a drop off at Igbin and wanted to make sure he got one. 

[Alphadawg7]

On 4/30/2026 at 10:12 PM, gonzo1105 said:

The biggest thing I took from that was they wanted an Edge Rusher and CB in with their first two picks. 
 

They had 3 players on their board at that spot obviously with Parker being the top one. I think it’s fair to assume the other two were also Edge Rushers or Cornerbacks based on his comment . So who fits there outside of Parker? 
 

They wanted a long press corner so I’m not sure Hood was on there. Maybe Brandon Cisse from South Carolina? Unlikely I’d think? 
 

I think Zion Young has to be one of the other two. Gabe Jacas makes sense but he went way later. Were they about to take a shot on R Mason Thomas or Cashius Howell? I’d say also unlikely so I’m most curious about that 
 

 

 

He didnt say with his first 2 picks it had to be an edge and corner.  He said he would love an edge and a corner as he was leaving, didn't mean it had to be the next 2 picks or that he was going edge and corner no matter what.  Too many people are hung up on this statement and over analyzing to suggest Beane wasn't going to stick with his board and take those 2 position regardless who was still there.  

 

There were 3 edge rushers apparently they liked and TJ was the top one and they knew they would get one.  Who knows who the other 2 were.  And then clealy IGB was thier top target and BPA on their board to the point he didn't want to risk it with other corners coming off and he moved up a little to get him.  

 

I would bet money that if IGB didn't last they probably go a different direction at that pick than corner as there was not a lot left at that point.

What Beane was saying is he would love if the board fell that way, and it sorta did and then he took matters into his own hands rather than risk it when there was a little bit of a run on corners.

Edited May 2 by Alphadawg7

[Kelly No huddle]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

So conveniently the two positions he wanted were just those tiers? I do think there is an argument the edge rushers were among the top cluster of guys at the start of day. But Beane said himself that at corner it was more that he felt there was a drop off at Igbin and wanted to make sure he got one. 

 

If he traded up,  then he probably saw a tier of players and cb was extremely thin. 

 

It would still be in theory bpa. At least thats my assumption. I could be wrong and hes just taking the cb in a lower tier from his board.  Seems illogical to me

[Alphadawg7]

7 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

So conveniently the two positions he wanted were just those tiers? I do think there is an argument the edge rushers were among the top cluster of guys at the start of day. But Beane said himself that at corner it was more that he felt there was a drop off at Igbin and wanted to make sure he got one. 

 

What he said was he wanted to make sure they got IGB...not make sure they got "one" as in anyone.  And he never said his next two picks were going to be edge and corner, he just said he would love to get an edge and a corner as he was leaving.  Doesn't mean he is taking an edge and corner no matter who is there, its more he hopes the board falls that way.  And he said he knew he was getting an edge first because there was 3 he liked and they were assured one of them and it was made clear in warroom TJ was their top choice.  

I don't think if IGB is gone he just stubbornly takes a corner, thats not at all Beanes draft style.  The fact he moved up for IGB and it was clear in the draft footage he was their guy, not a guy they settled on becasue a run happened, shows he was going after their top target.  Not just taking a corner to take a corner no matter what. 

Edited May 2 by Alphadawg7

[Kelly No huddle]

1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

What he said was he wanted to make sure they got IGB...not make sure they got "one" as in anyone.  And he never said his next two picks were going to be edge and corner, he just said he would love to get an edge and a corner as he was leaving.  Doesn't mean he is taking an edge and corner no matter who is there, its more he hopes the board falls that way.  And he said he knew he was getting an edge first because there was 3 he liked and they were assured one of them and it was made clear in warroom TJ was their top choice.  

I don't think if IGB is gone he just stubbornly takes a corner, thats not at all Beanes draft style.  The fact he moved up for IGB and it was clear in the draft footage he was their guy, not a guy they settled on becasue a run happened, shows he was going after their top target.  Not just taking a corner to take a corner no matter what. 

 

Exactly 💯 

[GunnerBill]

7 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

What he said was he wanted to make sure they got IGB...not make sure they got "one" as in anyone.  And he never said his next two picks were going to be edge and corner, he just said he would love to get an edge and a corner as he was leaving.  Doesn't mean he is taking an edge and corner no matter who is there, its more he hopes the board falls that way.  And he said he knew he was getting an edge first because there was 3 he liked and they were assured one of them and it was made clear in warroom TJ was their top choice.  

I don't think if IGB is gone he just stubbornly takes a corner, thats not at all Beanes draft style.  The fact he moved up for IGB and it was clear in the draft footage he was their guy, not a guy they settled on becasue a run happened, shows he was going after their top target.  Not just taking a corner to take a corner no matter what. 

 

I agree. I don't think if IGB was gone he was taking any corner. But he said in the post draft presser that it was getting thin at corner and he wanted to make sure he got one. Coupled with what is in Embedded that suggests to me that IGB was the last corner he liked in that tier. Not that he was the overall best player in that tier. If the team before the Bills takes IGB he is not trading up. He is sitting and probably taking another position. But he didn't want to take another position. He wanted a corner. Hence he was aggressive to go get IGB. 

10 minutes ago, Kelly No huddle said:

 

If he traded up,  then he probably saw a tier of players and cb was extremely thin. 

 

It would still be in theory bpa. At least thats my assumption. I could be wrong and hes just taking the cb in a lower tier from his board.  Seems illogical to me

 

I do think IGB was the last corner in that tier. Doesn't make him the BPA. Makes him Best Corner Available. 

Edited May 2 by GunnerBill

[Alphadawg7]

13 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

I do think IGB was the last corner in that tier. Doesn't make him the BPA. Makes him Best Corner Available. 

 

Thats just it - neither you or any of us know if IGB was his BPA or just his best corner available.  You are making an assumption that it wasn't BPA, but Beanes actions suggest that IGB was their guy. 

 

You are not leaving room for both to be true - that he was the best corner left, but also their BPA on thier board.  Just becasue it was corner doesn't also mean it was not his BPA.  It was pretty clear in the war room and embedded that they were very high on IGB, so its quite plausible he was also their BPA too.  

Again, Beane isn't going "corner" or bust there, even you agree with that...but they clearly loved IGB which also suggests he was either BPA or in a mix of guys at the top of their board but was the guy they wanted the most.  

[Kelly No huddle]

Igb was my favorite pick, I was honestly shocked so many ppl got mad.

 

I was fully prepared for them to take cb with their 1st pick if the board fell a certain way. I didn't think it was likely but not unrealistic either. 

 

In various mock drafts I traded down to the 40s and ponds was my pick sometimes. 

 

He was right behind ponds imo and one of the top 5-6 cbs in the country.  

 

If hes that dude,  our defense is going to transform overnight 

 

 

[SoMAn]

14 hours ago, Canadian Bills Fan said:

 

 

Football IQ: -1

 

 

Im so glad I'm not the only one lol

 

 

I was thinking it would be a fun drinking game.

 

Take a shot every time Brady says "man" while on the phone 

Or “buddy”.

 

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Thats just it - neither you or any of us know if IGB was his BPA or just his best corner available.  You are making an assumption that it wasn't BPA, but Beanes actions suggest that IGB was their guy. 

 

You are not leaving room for both to be true - that he was the best corner left, but also their BPA on thier board.  Just becasue it was corner doesn't also mean it was not his BPA.  It was pretty clear in the war room and embedded that they were very high on IGB, so its quite plausible he was also their BPA too.  

Again, Beane isn't going "corner" or bust there, even you agree with that...but they clearly loved IGB which also suggests he was either BPA or in a mix of guys at the top of their board but was the guy they wanted the most.  

 

I am leaving room for that. I just think that would be an enormous coincidence. And it doesn't scream a change of approach. It still screams Beane had needs he wanted to hit and made sure he hit them. It was not true BPA and let the board fall (which isn't and hasn't ever really been Brandon's drafting style).

Edited May 2 by GunnerBill

[Mikey152]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I agree. I don't think if IGB was gone he was taking any corner. But he said in the post draft presser that it was getting thin at corner and he wanted to make sure he got one. Coupled with what is in Embedded that suggests to me that IGB was the last corner he liked in that tier. Not that he was the overall best player in that tier. If the team before the Bills takes IGB he is not trading up. He is sitting and probably taking another position. But he didn't want to take another position. He wanted a corner. Hence he was aggressive to go get IGB. 

 

I do think IGB was the last corner in that tier. Doesn't make him the BPA. Makes him Best Corner Available. 

To be fair, numerical rank is arbitrary…I mean, the whole process is, but you get what I am saying.

 

The whole point of putting players in tiers is to say players in this group are basically the same level of player. If you are picking from the highest tier on your board, you are picking bpa. If you are picking from a lower tier because of position, you are reaching for need and should have traded down. The only exception to that is sometimes runs can happen…your board is your board, but what other teams are doing matters, too. 
 

You might reach a little early if you think a few guys from higher tiers might still be out there later.

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Mikey152 said:

To be fair, numerical rank is arbitrary…I mean, the whole process is, but you get what I am saying.

 

The whole point of putting players in tiers is to say players in this group are basically the same level of player. If you are picking from the highest tier on your board, you are picking bpa. If you are picking from a lower tier because of position, you are reaching for need and should have traded down. The only exception to that is sometimes runs can happen…your board is your board, but what other teams are doing matters, too. 
 

You might reach a little early if you think a few guys from higher tiers might still be out there later.

 

Yes of course. I don't think Beane has reached for a tier 4 guy by his board over a tier 3 guy for example. He has taken likely the last corner in his tier 3 (or whatever the tiers were for him). I'm not saying that is a problem. I am just saying it is what he has always done. And is what most of the league does, most of time. The one guy I think was pure BPA for them was Kilgore. That may be a bit of confirmation bias cos he was sticking out on my board at that point, but Pegula said on Embedded he was sticking out on theirs too. 

[finn]

Like many here, I'm warming up to this draft. An early Beane fan, I've grown increasingly frustrated with his bungled or meh top picks going back years. I wanted at least one game changer and would have been happy with Concepcion. But the tradedown-fest makes sense to me, not just because it gives us more bites at the apple but because of the picks themselves. Parker looks like another Rousseau in his strengths and weaknesses, which works for me. IGB gives us matchup versatility; he's a big and strong complement to the faster, quicker but lightweight Hairston. I haven't looked into Bowry yet, but I'm happy to have a real swing tackle if he makes the grade. Everyone is raving about Bell, and he does look like good fit; could be a poor man's Diggs w/o the diva act (I hope). We badly need a linebacker, with frail little Bernard already in his countdown to his first IR listing of 2026. Orr looks like a bigger Dorian and from reports also lacks instincts, but at least he offers size there; maybe Beane can finally drop AJ Klein from his speed dial. (Countdown to signing Shaq and/or Milano... on 1, 2, 3...). And Kilgore paired with Bishop in two years may finally give us a real secondary; goodbye, Rapp and (eventually) Hamlin. I'm not the only one who is tired of hear about McDermott's "complex" defense that only Rapp, Poyer and Hamlin can run properly. Finally, I have hopes for the punter. 

 

So, yeah, maybe Beane will begin redeem himself (in my eyes) with this draft. Go Bills!

[NeverOutNick]

48 minutes ago, finn said:

Like many here, I'm warming up to this draft. An early Beane fan, I've grown increasingly frustrated with his bungled or meh top picks going back years. I wanted at least one game changer and would have been happy with Concepcion. But the tradedown-fest makes sense to me, not just because it gives us more bites at the apple but because of the picks themselves. Parker looks like another Rousseau in his strengths and weaknesses, which works for me. IGB gives us matchup versatility; he's a big and strong complement to the faster, quicker but lightweight Hairston. I haven't looked into Bowry yet, but I'm happy to have a real swing tackle if he makes the grade. Everyone is raving about Bell, and he does look like good fit; could be a poor man's Diggs w/o the diva act (I hope). We badly need a linebacker, with frail little Bernard already in his countdown to his first IR listing of 2026. Orr looks like a bigger Dorian and from reports also lacks instincts, but at least he offers size there; maybe Beane can finally drop AJ Klein from his speed dial. (Countdown to signing Shaq and/or Milano... on 1, 2, 3...). And Kilgore paired with Bishop in two years may finally give us a real secondary; goodbye, Rapp and (eventually) Hamlin. I'm not the only one who is tired of hear about McDermott's "complex" defense that only Rapp, Poyer and Hamlin can run properly. Finally, I have hopes for the punter. 

 

So, yeah, maybe Beane will begin redeem himself (in my eyes) with this draft. Go Bills!

This is a great post and may have swayed me a little more after being pessimistic on a couple picks (mainly Parker and Bowry). I 100% agree I wanted instant superstar upgrade and thought KC was that guy but it would’ve taken us not having the ammo we got because we probably lose at least a 4th rounder to move up 3 picks for him and more likely pick 91.  
 

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I am leaving room for that. I just think that would be an enormous coincidence. And it doesn't scream a change of approach. It still screams Beane had needs he wanted to hit and made sure he hit them. It was not true BPA and let the board fall (which isn't and hasn't ever really been Brandon's drafting style).

This is right. Beane has shown in the past that BPA isn’t how he drafts. He has his lists of positional needs and has them tiered out I’m sure but in the early rounds especially he’s going to pick a player that fits what he feels is the biggest need of the team (See Elam once they lost out on McDuffie, or Coleman the year Diggs left). If he was truly going BPA there is no way Elam and Coleman were the guys where he picked. I’m sure he isn’t pigeonholed always to one specific position. It’s more likely that you take him at his word and he really was going to take a corner or edge with his first pick because that’s his biggest “need” and he felt he had enough players ranked in that tier to bypass a true BPA overall. Again his past clearly shows this. My only real problem with Beane is for a guy who came out big 🏈 🏈 swinging for the fences, taking a huge risk on Josh Allen (which I and a lot of us loved at the time), he now takes safe singles. No more home run swings that lead to other superstar talent. We get the same jargon in pressers on how this guy is a 3 down or 4 down player instead of this guy was just too hard to pass up because even though he needs work on one area (defending the run or concentration drops) he’s elite at the the thing he does best (rushing the passer or creating separation). He had a solid draft that filled holes and I have confidence we will be a better team. He’s also really good at working in draft trades. Maybe the best in the league and I love that about him. And maybe I’m just living in a fantasy world where I think we can have it all and be the clear Super Bowl favorites year in and year out because we have Josh freaking Allen AND a plethora of other elite talent 🤷🏻‍♂️

Edited May 2 by NeverOutNick

[PoundingDog]

8 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I suspect it is a management technique more than an evaluation one. 

Probably did this for day 2 and day 1 as well. That's one parameter in figuring out who is the next assistant GM is or needing some new blood.

[PoundingDog]

34 minutes ago, NeverOutNick said:

My only real problem with Beane is for a guy who came out big 🏈 🏈 swinging for the fences, taking a huge risk on Josh Allen (which I and a lot of us loved at the time), he now takes safe singles. No more home run swings that lead to other superstar talent.

I like the analogy. But NFL draft is not a fair system. Because Bills success, Beane is constantly facing the #1 pitcher recent years whereas he was able to get to #5 pitchers in Allen and Oliver draft years. 

 

Remember, from the overall game perspective (instead of at-bat perspective), you don't always need to hit a home run to win. Some time a single would do. Imagine if he was able to score a single at the Kaiir Elam pick spot with another Benford level player, the Bills would likely have moved past the Chiefs 2 years ago.

[Alphadawg7]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I am leaving room for that. I just think that would be an enormous coincidence. And it doesn't scream a change of approach. It still screams Beane had needs he wanted to hit and made sure he hit them. It was not true BPA and let the board fall (which isn't and hasn't ever really been Brandon's drafting style).

 

Thats just it - "True" BPA doesn't exist.  Its a fan myth.  All BPA includes team needs/wants 100% of the time, especially in those earlier rounds.  Thats why a QB will never be the Bills pick with Prime Josh Allen in the first round even if its the best player on the board.  

[GunnerBill]

10 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Thats just it - "True" BPA doesn't exist.  Its a fan myth.  All BPA includes team needs/wants 100% of the time, especially in those earlier rounds.  Thats why a QB will never be the Bills pick with Prime Josh Allen in the first round even if its the best player on the board.  

 

That's not true. It is certainly not common, but pure BPA does exist. Now that player being BPA is still ultimately subjective, of course. But there are situations where teams decide a guy is just too good to leave on the board even if not a need. QB, obviously, is a different situation. 

 

But I have spoken to guys who have been senior personnel execs in the NFL. There are times when it is pure BPA. 

[NeverOutNick]

1 hour ago, PoundingDog said:

I like the analogy. But NFL draft is not a fair system. Because Bills success, Beane is constantly facing the #1 pitcher recent years whereas he was able to get to #5 pitchers in Allen and Oliver draft years. 

 

Remember, from the overall game perspective (instead of at-bat perspective), you don't always need to hit a home run to win. Some time a single would do. Imagine if he was able to score a single at the Kaiir Elam pick spot with another Benford level player, the Bills would likely have moved past the Chiefs 2 years ago.

If we’re keeping this analogy. Beane takes a lot of at bats thinking he will just put the ball in play to get a single and drive in runs but ends up striking out instead. Why not swing for the fences on a couple of those at bats since your singles strategy isn’t working out the best in the first few rounds. And to be fair he’s a great contact hitter when it gets late in the game, 4th through 7th round but let’s try to take the lead early with some power at bats lol