Embedded -the Bills Draft

[Perk71]

Great video. 

 

Go Bills!!

[NeverOutNick]

10 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

 

I gotta admit that was pretty awesome! It does seem like they had a couple pass rushers at the top of their list but Parker edged out the other guy because he was better against the run but my gut says the other guy was Howell and that guy is still gonna be awesome. I just hope Parker is better. Definitely liked the reactions of some of the late round guys starting with Kilgore. Pray that all these guys contribute early to us winning a Super Bowl.

[eball]

Man, that was good. I think my favorite part is hearing the emotion in these players’ voices when they get the call. Very moving.

 

[SoMAn]

Thanks for sharing...man.

[NeverOutNick]

Reflecting on that video and the draft I’ve come to terms that they were going Edge and Corner their first 2 picks and even if I don’t love the upside of Parker (feels like a safe whatever 3 down non superstar), I’m fine with the draft overall except 1 thing. I hate how Beane handled things after his 2 picks on day 2. He had the first pick in the 4th and really good players were falling in the 3rd. You traded back for an uninspiring Olineman instead of working the phones to look for a true future stud. Ted Hurst and Chris Brazzel went in the mid 80s and probably could’ve been had for that 101 and a 5th rounder. Time will tell and I’m happy we got Bell at least but I’m all about getting more superstars and even though those WRs have more bust potential, the upside is insane. We need more stars and less same ol same ol

[Pete]

6 hours ago, slaphappy said:

Those criers are the people you want .. they have done the extra things to get them to this point. They are the ones that want to win as much as you do.

Those players have worked their asses off their whole lives, dreaming of playing in the NFL. Players are at home, watching the draft with family and friends, it’s the biggest moment of their lives.

 

I can’t imagine how many intense emotions must be feeling for draftee.  Pride, Relief, Family, Girlfriend, Thankful, Love, Pressure Release, Euphoria…..They made it!  Those are the players that love football!

 

 

[GASabresIUFan]

7 hours ago, slaphappy said:

Those criers are the people you want .. they have done the extra things to get them to this point. They are the ones that want to win as much as you do.

I disagree, we need people who can control their emotions in critical situations.  I want them to be happy and excited but focused.  

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, NeverOutNick said:

I gotta admit that was pretty awesome! It does seem like they had a couple pass rushers at the top of their list but Parker edged out the other guy because he was better against the run but my gut says the other guy was Howell and that guy is still gonna be awesome. I just hope Parker is better. Definitely liked the reactions of some of the late round guys starting with Kilgore. Pray that all these guys contribute early to us winning a Super Bowl.

 

I'd still be surprised if it was Howell. Broadly their player specifications (with the exception of corner) look pretty much unchanged to me. And Howell is just so far away from their specifications. I suspect it was Young or possibly Jacas (where they have an in with a former coach) personally. 

 

The two most interesting bits for me were: 

i) I think Beane had what he wanted picks wise after the Houston and New England trades and was expecting to pick at #31 and he clearly says on the phone to Tennessee (unless you can give me something else I am gonna pick) so one suspect they improved their offer again after that. They won that trade by the value chart so makes some sense; and

ii) he clearly had teams interested in coming up for one of the picks where they went Bell and Elarms-Orr and I think completely the right decision there to stick and pick. 

3 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:

I disagree, we need people who can control their emotions in critical situations.  I want them to be happy and excited but focused.  

 

I'm a happy crier. I think I'd cry too. I'm like stone in the face of sadness, but love a good happy blub. 

[Juice_32]

Kilgore could be an absolute steal. I'm really excited for this kid.

[Haslett_Stomp]

Did anyone else notice Kim P. sitting next to Terry on day 1?  Very cool.

[4merper4mer]

Great video.  One down arrow on Brady is singing ability and his awful rendition of Hey Jude.

[PoundingDog]

2 hours ago, NeverOutNick said:

Reflecting on that video and the draft I’ve come to terms that they were going Edge and Corner their first 2 picks and even if I don’t love the upside of Parker (feels like a safe whatever 3 down non superstar), I’m fine with the draft overall except 1 thing. I hate how Beane handled things after his 2 picks on day 2. He had the first pick in the 4th and really good players were falling in the 3rd. You traded back for an uninspiring Olineman instead of working the phones to look for a true future stud. Ted Hurst and Chris Brazzel went in the mid 80s and probably could’ve been had for that 101 and a 5th rounder. Time will tell and I’m happy we got Bell at least but I’m all about getting more superstars and even though those WRs have more bust potential, the upside is insane. We need more stars and less same ol same ol

I think Beane has resigned to the fact that he's not going to get a super star out of this draft from where he is at, which is aligned to everyone who scouted college players. Are Ted Hurst and Chris Brazzel really that much better prospects than Bell? The question goes to Bills scouts.

[JP51]

14 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

 

Thank you I always look forward to these! 

[DrDawkinstein]

1 hour ago, Haslett_Stomp said:

Did anyone else notice Kim P. sitting next to Terry on day 1?  Very cool.

 

Do you have a timestamp on that? I didnt see her at all. There is that raven-haired young lady sitting behind Beane/next-ish to Terry. But she is definitely not Kim.

 

I did see Laura Pegula around the room (the blonde).

[NeverOutNick]

21 minutes ago, PoundingDog said:

I think Beane has resigned to the fact that he's not going to get a super star out of this draft from where he is at, which is aligned to everyone who scouted college players. Are Ted Hurst and Chris Brazzel really that much better prospects than Bell? The question goes to Bills scouts.

And isn’t that a big problem to have a mindset like that? Other GMs take big swings on high risk/reward players but Beane is fine taking the “safe” 3 or 4 down player. We have Josh Allen, it’s ok to take some risk. Yes Bell has the highest floor of the 3 WRs mentioned and was good value in the mid 4th but as I stated in my WR rankings, he’s a poor mans Stefon Diggs. That’s a solid possession player but if Hurst turns into the next Larry Fitzgerald (I know it’s unlikely) or Brazzell turns into a faster bigger version of Devonta Smith it’s going to hurt. Both those guys could be complete busts but they’re worth the risk in the 3rd round imo. He’s just too safe imo and it’s the reason every year we have Josh Allen and a bunch of guys. It’d be nice to have a Chris Jones, a Kelce, a Tyreek Hill. My opinion again is you can get your safe roll players that are proven in free agency but it’s ok to take some risk in the draft. 

[Haslett_Stomp]

28 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Do you have a timestamp on that? I didnt see her at all. There is that raven-haired young lady sitting behind Beane/next-ish to Terry. But she is definitely not Kim.

 

I did see Laura Pegula around the room (the blonde).

 

My mistake, it was during the 2nd round.  Minute 5:20-5:25 and again from 7:17-7:20.

Edited May 1 by Haslett_Stomp

[DrDawkinstein]

2 minutes ago, Haslett_Stomp said:

 

My mistake, it was during the 2nd round.  Minute 5:20-5:25 and a little more after that.

 

Ah nice! Yep that's her! Wonderful to see her even in that capacity. 

[JP51]

36 minutes ago, PoundingDog said:

I think Beane has resigned to the fact that he's not going to get a super star out of this draft from where he is at, which is aligned to everyone who scouted college players. Are Ted Hurst and Chris Brazzel really that much better prospects than Bell? The question goes to Bills scouts.

I think you are right, I also think Beane values rotational players and would prefer to be deep with players that can play over putting his eggs in the game wrecker basket... I think that has served us well to the point that we are competitive each year but not to the point of getting us over the top... I dont think however this was the draft to go all in for a game wrecker... I just am not sure that person was there or reasonable to move up and get...  and to your point everything I have heard was there was very little separation after 10-15 or so and mid first to late 2nd.  I think he played the hand he was dealt... did he pick the right guys... that is another question entirely that we will not find out for a while now...  I do love his excitement about getting the players he got, but I do not have faith in that excitement...  I am Missouri on this... Show me.. 

[gonzo1105]

I kind of thought about starting a new thread and we can debate whether you like his draft picks till the cows come home. 
 

There are 3 things that Brandon Beane does very well as a GM: 

 

1. He always gets a bargain on players he’s re-signing that have been with the Bills in comparison to their market value 

 

2. The man knows how to work a draft board. He has shown it multiple times in his drafts. This one was great but none greater than his manipulation up the board to get Allen at 7 from 21 without giving up a single first round pick( Thanks Cordy Glenn) 

 

3. He knows when a run on players is coming in a draft and very rarely gets caught with his pants down. He got ahead of the DL run and the OT run in the 4th. 
 

I thought Igbinosun was a reach like a lot of others but if you look at the Cornerback picks in that area A. There weren’t many and only two had great length. 
 

Brandon Cisse went 52nd, Igbinosun went 62, Tacario Davis went 72 then the next guy was Daylan Everette at 85. It’s clear the Bills really liked Igbinosun more than the others and the CB was thin at this point so he went up and got him for a 6th 

[PoundingDog]

15 minutes ago, NeverOutNick said:

And isn’t that a big problem to have a mindset like that? Other GMs take big swings on high risk/reward players but Beane is fine taking the “safe” 3 or 4 down player. We have Josh Allen, it’s ok to take some risk. Yes Bell has the highest floor of the 3 WRs mentioned and was good value in the mid 4th but as I stated in my WR rankings, he’s a poor mans Stefon Diggs. That’s a solid possession player but if Hurst turns into the next Larry Fitzgerald (I know it’s unlikely) or Brazzell turns into a faster bigger version of Devonta Smith it’s going to hurt. Both those guys could be complete busts but they’re worth the risk in the 3rd round imo. He’s just too safe imo and it’s the reason every year we have Josh Allen and a bunch of guys. It’d be nice to have a Chris Jones, a Kelce, a Tyreek Hill. My opinion again is you can get your safe roll players that are proven in free agency but it’s ok to take some risk in the draft. 

Again, I believe the keyword is scouting. I highlighted your statement of of high risk/reward players above. There is no universal definition of who is high risk/reward players. It's all in year-in-year-out work of the scouts you hired, who track these guys coming out of high school. I respect that you are one of those who put in time to rank prospects, but you are one voice, use your method, maybe have your private intel that no one else has. From management perspective, I suggest that you publish your ranking on a website somewhere, even your own, make sure there is hard timestamp on it. Then score it after 3 years afterwards to see how good your ranking is. The only way to prove your ranking is better is to have original ranking and ultimate verdict. You can send the verdict and original prediction to the Bills or any other NFL team and I'd say you will get noticed.

 

In any event we are talking about Puka Nacua/Tyreek Hill/Antonio Brown territory. The hit rate is extremely small and maybe more luck than anything else. I don't know any GM has any semblance of consistency in finding those gems. I do agree that you need to try or you have no chance.