McDermott Prediction Poll

[machine gun kelly]

19 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

we were a .500 team before he got here

 

hardly a laughingstock

808, I can only remember the 2004 season where we went 9-7 and couldn’t beat a team of Steelers backups.  We had some 8-8 years, but we also had a bunch of 3-13 to 4-12 years, and yes if you lived anywhere but WNY, we were a laughing stock.  I wore Bills gear the whole time down here, and yes, was laughed at for being a Bills fan.  I didn’t nor do I care now what people think.

 

So yeah, we were a laughing stock in most of America.  We couldn’t buy a HC worth any substance as they didn’t want to come to Buffalo, and players never wanted to come here.

 

So bottom line is we’ll agree to disagree on this point.  We now have a winning culture, and a 5 time AFCE champs.  Sure we blew it last year, but blowing it with inferior WRs minus Shakir still managed 12-5.  We also won multiple playoff games each year.  Sure, we never won the AFC, but we took out every wildcard rival and won half the divisional round games.  I’m not saying McD’s maybe outlived his time here, but to not respect what he did is silly.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

I chose fired in 3 years with no play off wins simply because it's the most likely path when you look at other teams who hire new coaches.  He'd need to either go to team that already has a QB (Bills Ravens this season, but not many of them fire their coaches or get lucky with finding a QB, if not he'll go the route of many and be fired. 

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, machine gun kelly said:

808, I can only remember the 2004 season where we went 9-7 and couldn’t beat a team of Steelers backups.  We had some 8-8 years, but we also had a bunch of 3-13 to 4-12 years, and yes if you lived anywhere but WNY, we were a laughing stock.  I wore Bills gear the whole time down here, and yes, was laughed at for being a Bills fan.  I didn’t nor do I care now what people think.

 

So yeah, we were a laughing stock in most of America.  We couldn’t buy a HC worth any substance as they didn’t want to come to Buffalo, and players never wanted to come here.

 

So bottom line is we’ll agree to disagree on this point.  We now have a winning culture, and a 5 time AFCE champs.  Sure we blew it last year, but blowing it with inferior WRs minus Shakir still managed 12-5.  We also won multiple playoff games each year.  Sure, we never won the AFC, but we took out every wildcard rival and won half the divisional round games.  I’m not saying McD’s maybe outlived his time here, but to not respect what he did is silly.

6-10

9-7

8-8

7-9

9-7

6-10

 

3 (actually 4) different HCs, 2 different owners. McDermott didn't do anything except have Allen break out amidst a bad division

[dpberr]

I think he'll be a college coach.  There's a lot of upside to that for both him and and a Division 1 program.  A college program plays to his strengths as a team builder.  

 

If Matt Rhule can make $9M a year being a mediocre Cornhuskers coach, and Deion Sanders can steal $10M from Colorado every year, there's *lots* of opportunity for McDermott.  He can pick his spot.  (Besides Penn State)

 

 

[TheFunPolice]

I actually don't think he will be as sought after as his W/L record would suggest.

 

IMO his biggest liability is being a "defensive HC" whose defensive has had many chances but never won the SB. It seems offensive minded coaches are more in demand to develop young QBs because if the offense goes great with a young QB your OC is gone to be a HC if you have a defensive minded HC. Same applies to established QBs. Teams want a stable system. 

 

That doesn't mean defensive coaches can't be sought after, but they need the hardware or they need to be seen as the "next big thing." If Tomlin decided to coach again (he never will, IMO) he would be most team's top choice. Because he has hardware and got to another SB as well. So what if it has been a while. Champions are eternal in sports. 

 

With McDermott, it feels like you know and have seen his ceiling: 12-14 win seasons and winning 1-2 playoff games but just not getting over the finish line to the SB. 

 

One could argue that's a pretty darn good ceiling, but it is also a ceiling. It's likely his next QB is not as dynamic as prime Josh Allen. His belt and suspenders approach to game management will win a lot of games because most teams are mediocre at best and will do dumb things to beat themselves. But once the big fish are all that are left it's a different story. 

 

I could see him being surprisingly not in high demand and taking what feels like a second tier job. Or even being a DC somewhere. It's just hard to imagine anyone getting excited about the guy who could not even GET there with prime Josh Allen especially in a year where there was no Burrow, no Mahomes, no Jackson in the way. 

[Homey D. Clown]

I predict he has a terrible defense that gets boat raced by every run game in the league.

Edited April 30 by Homey D. Clown

[Kirby Jackson]

25 minutes ago, nuklz2594 said:

tar heels after bill fired?

Interesting thought. I hadn’t thought about McDermott at the NCAA level. Pre-NIL I bet he would have been a really good college coach at a non-blue blood. It feels like he could build a program. Put him somewhere with a good state to recruit from and he could do well. Virginia, South Carolina and Maryland immediately come to mind.
 

I’m not sure about recruiting though in the NIL era. He seems to like this 1/53rd mindset. When you’re recruiting Jeremiah Smith the message can’t be, “everyone has a job to do.” Maybe he would adapt but you have to pick and choose where to allocate your resource. Who are the guys that you have to get?

[Ray Stonada]

For all those lauding McD's record in Buffalo: it's 100% because of Josh Allen. We were not a feared defensive team the last 5 years, we were a top offense. No matter who the HC or even OC, Allen produces at a historic rate.

[machine gun kelly]

43 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

6-10

9-7

8-8

7-9

9-7

6-10

 

3 (actually 4) different HCs, 2 different owners. McDermott didn't do anything except have Allen break out amidst a bad division

808, I won’t reply anymore, but to be accurate you need to include 17 consecutive years, not six years.  That’s cherry picking brother.   I get it.  You can’t stand McD.  You just aren’t looking at the whole 17 years.  Ever since the Titans debacle that was a forward pass.  I’m not looking up the whole 17 years as it’s not worth my time.  Next time, list all 17 years.  Then you get how much we sucked, and Allen isn’t the only reason we won.  

Just now, machine gun kelly said:

808, I won’t reply anymore, but to be accurate you need to include 17 consecutive years, not six years.  That’s cherry picking brother.   I get it.  You can’t stand McD.  You just aren’t looking at the whole 17 years.  Ever since the Titans debacle that was a forward pass.  I’m not looking up the whole 17 years as it’s not worth my time.  Next time, list all 17 years.  Then you get how much we sucked, and Allen isn’t the only reason we won.  

And btw- I’m not McDs cheerleader.  Just I am more fair minded.

2 minutes ago, machine gun kelly said:

808, I won’t reply anymore, but to be accurate you need to include 17 consecutive years, not six years.  That’s cherry picking brother.   I get it.  You can’t stand McD.  You just aren’t looking at the whole 17 years.  Ever since the Titans debacle that was a forward pass.  I’m not looking up the whole 17 years as it’s not worth my time.  Next time, list all 17 years.  Then you get how much we sucked, and Allen isn’t the only reason we won.  

And btw- I’m not McDs cheerleader.  Just I am more fair minded.

One last thing.  We also sucked in the early to mid 80’s post firing of Chuck Knox.  82-87 were horrible as were many of the 70’s years.  I’m old enough to remember all of those horrible memories.  It was nice the last 9 years to feel like a winner, even if we didn’t win the big one.

[vtnatefootball11]

I don't think McDermott will ever get another head coaching gig frankly. He's a good coach but verifiably not great, especially at the key in game decision making stuff, and he's a little too rigid for today's locker rooms. I don't think he is as highly regarded around the league (and many Bills fans saw this years ago).  It is very fair to wonder what he type of success he would have had without Allen. Great person, but not a sexy hire for any team. He will likely get a shot at DC next year, but teams may be hesitant given his d style is more antiquated. 

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, The Frankish Reich said:

HOF caliber QB, consistent division winner, never won (got to?) a Super Bowl over the course of 5+ seasons. Who else fits those criteria?

I can't think of anyone.

 

Do you consider McNabb a HOF caliber QB?  The knee jerk reaction of many would be "no", but keep in mind he was one of the first dual threat QBs and had 5 successive pro-bowls back in 2000-2004 when it arguably meant more.  He was the leading or 2nd rusher by yards on his team several of those years, and scored 6 TD in 2 seasons, back in the day when pundits and coaches like Martz disdained QB who left the pocket.

How about Rivers?

I'd like to point out that any time a very specific number of seasons is called out, one has to ask "why 5+?  why not 4+ or 6+?  is there a clear rationale for that number, or was it just chosen to support a narrative?"

[Beck Water]

15 minutes ago, vtnatefootball11 said:

I don't think McDermott will ever get another head coaching gig frankly. He's a good coach but verifiably not great, especially at the key in game decision making stuff, and he's a little too rigid for today's locker rooms. I don't think he is as highly regarded around the league (and many Bills fans saw this years ago).  It is very fair to wonder what he type of success he would have had without Allen. Great person, but not a sexy hire for any team. He will likely get a shot at DC next year, but teams may be hesitant given his d style is more antiquated. 

 

OMG if you're correct, that would be the wierdest of weird happenings in the NFL.  Man has a W-L percentage of .662, which happens to be 15th overall in the NFL and 3rd (Third) among active coaches, behind Nick Sirianni and Jim Harbaugh and just ahead of Matt LaFleur.  John Harbaugh got another chance, immediately.  Marty Schottenheimer got 4 (Four). 

Mike Vrabel is on his 3rd, and I suppose everyone is all "whoo hoo!" because Superbowl his first year, neglecting the fact that his team got to play a team without its starting QB to get there and won by a FG - clearly some luck is involved there.  And of course in 2019, when Tannehill was "Comeback Player of the Year" they got spanked in the conf. championship by the Chiefs.

 

I Get It, you don't like McDermott, but given the number of sketchy, not particularly successful HC who get 2nd and 3rd tries McDermott not getting any HC offers would be hella weird.

Obligatory note that I am on record saying the Bills made the right decision to move on from McDermott.  One doesn't have to be a "fanboy" or "apologist" to look at the objective facts of his HC success and say that he should and very likely will, get another HC gig.

 

Edited April 30 by Beck Water

[Einstein's Dog]

1 hour ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Only if we finally make a SB and a McD-coached Giants beat us.

 

I disagree. Given his age and his record, the offers will come in. And yes, I think he's in a position to pick and choose opportunities: where he wants to coach, the type of team he wants to take over. I would guess a smaller city (Panthers are just too obvious) and a young team. Just like the Bills situation when he took over here.

I am hoping McD gets the Tampa job.  They are not too far off and McD would be a great fit IMO.  The Tampa D has stunk for a while and McD could clean it up (even though I haven't been a fan of the passive D).  The division is there for the taking -on a regular basis really.

 

Last year Seattle won it with Darnold, so Mayfield could do it.

 

The overall strategy of the Bills had been to take many bits of the apple.  They were doing that - but the losing in heartbreaking fashion seemed to doom the strategy.  With some small differences in circumstances the Bills would have been in.

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

and this is the addendum that it took him exactly 1 year with a top tier QB 

 

who was given to him by...guess who

 

Fair.  I think it's also fair to point out that the top-tier QB spent 1 year on the bench (so SB in year 3).
 

Also fair point that Mahomes was handed the keys to a team that had been 11-5, 12-4, and 10-6 the 3 previous years under a "good not great" QB and had been in the playoffs 4 of the previous 5 years - a successful, winning team that was looking for an upgrade, not a perennially mediocre team with a 17 year playoff drought that was ended the previous year by another team's fluky reception.

I still remember some sports pundit (I thought it was Lovie Smith) opining on the air in 2016 or 17: "The Kansas City Chiefs may win a Superbowl, but they're not going to do it with Andy Reid as their coach"    Aged poorly.

Edited April 30 by Beck Water

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Fair.  I think it's also fair to point out that the top-tier QB spent 1 year on the bench (so SB in year 3).
 

Also fair point that Mahomes was handed the keys to a team that had been 11-5, 12-4, and 10-6 the 3 previous years under a "good not great" QB and had been in the playoffs 4 of the previous 5 years - a successful, winning team that was looking for an upgrade, not a perennially mediocre team with a 17 year playoff drought that was ended the previous year by another team's fluky reception.

there's no dispute Reid and Veach had a better situation into which they inserted Mahomes, i'm pushing back on the narrative that the Bills were a 'laughinstock' sharing the AFCE w the Brady era Pats in the seasons prior to McDermott getting hired

[twoandfourteen]

1 hour ago, TheFunPolice said:

I actually don't think he will be as sought after as his W/L record would suggest.

 

IMO his biggest liability is being a "defensive HC" whose defensive has had many chances but never won the SB. It seems offensive minded coaches are more in demand to develop young QBs because if the offense goes great with a young QB your OC is gone to be a HC if you have a defensive minded HC. Same applies to established QBs. Teams want a stable system. 

 

That doesn't mean defensive coaches can't be sought after, but they need the hardware or they need to be seen as the "next big thing." If Tomlin decided to coach again (he never will, IMO) he would be most team's top choice. Because he has hardware and got to another SB as well. So what if it has been a while. Champions are eternal in sports. 

 

With McDermott, it feels like you know and have seen his ceiling: 12-14 win seasons and winning 1-2 playoff games but just not getting over the finish line to the SB. 

 

One could argue that's a pretty darn good ceiling, but it is also a ceiling. It's likely his next QB is not as dynamic as prime Josh Allen. His belt and suspenders approach to game management will win a lot of games because most teams are mediocre at best and will do dumb things to beat themselves. But once the big fish are all that are left it's a different story. 

 

I could see him being surprisingly not in high demand and taking what feels like a second tier job. Or even being a DC somewhere. It's just hard to imagine anyone getting excited about the guy who could not even GET there with prime Josh Allen especially in a year where there was no Burrow, no Mahomes, no Jackson in the way. 

 

And that’s only if he has arguably the most talented QB to ever take an NFL snap under center while also competing in a JV Division. 

[folz]

5 hours ago, Puckman5 said:

"Bounces" is why we didn't win a Super Bowl here?  I guess a few lucky bounces and I'd own Amazon or be playing for the Sabres.  

 

Quite the hyperbole on your part.

 

On the one hand, you could say McD got the biggest lucky bounce by the team drafting Allen (of course, that would be to an extent not giving him credit for maybe also wanting Allen in the draft, and then giving him the right culture, tools, and coaching to succeed, but yes, he had an All-Time QB in his prime for six years).

 

But it is not out of bounds by any means to say he got some bad bounces that prevented him and the team from reaching the Super Bowl. And anyone who can't admit that, just has an axe to grind (probably for 13 seconds), imo.

 

-The Damar Hamlin situation and the blizzard in the '22 season (amongst many other things).

-Hose job by the refs in the '24 season Championship game (the multiple bad spots, the tush push that did but didn't get a first down, the Worthy catch) [NFL obviously wanted Taylor Swift at the Super Bowl that year]

-A missed field goal in '23 vs. the Chiefs in the divisional round

-The Cooks catch that turned into an interception vs. Denver last season

-Yes, 13 seconds was down to coaching, but what if the Bills won the coin toss in OT. A coin toss could have changed that outcome.

-Too many seasons not being the healthiest team in the playoffs

-The fact that 4 of his 6 playoff exits (in Josh's prime) were to the 2nd best team of the last 40 years vs. a coach who had been his mentor

 

I mean honestly, just last season, if that Cooks catch is ruled a reception, we beat Denver and then go to play the Pats. No one can tell me we wouldn't have beaten the Pats and been in the Super Bowl. And in '24, if the refs don't hose us, McD is in the Super Bowl.

 

Yes, I think you can question if he ever would have won a Super Bowl, but to say he is incapable of reaching a Super Bowl, or that he didn't have some bad luck that prevented him from reaching a Super Bowl, doesn't ring true to me in the least.

 

Can he do it elsewhere without Josh, that's another question. I do know wherever he does go he will build a solid program and have a very competitive team, most likely making the playoffs more times than not. 

 

[GoBills808]

17 minutes ago, folz said:

 

I do know wherever he does go he will build a solid program and have a very competitive team, most likely making the playoffs more times than not. 

 

so basically exactly what he did here minus a HoF level QB? good luck w that

 

i'll continue to predict he'll be lucky to get another HC job and submit as evidence the people who claimed he'd be 'out of a job for 5 minutes' already proven definitively wrong 

[folz]

4 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

so basically exactly what he did here minus a HoF level QB? good luck w that

 

i'll continue to predict he'll be lucky to get another HC job and submit as evidence the people who claimed he'd be 'out of a job for 5 minutes' already proven definitively wrong 

 

Only time will tell at this point.

 

I just think that for whatever reason (13 seconds, not reaching a SB) some Bills fans both underestimate him as a coach and are way too unappreciative of what he did for our team. (and I'm not overlooking that he had his shortcomings too).

 

I was cool with moving on from him when we did, because I understood Terry's feeling of just needing a change, a new voice, some fresh air. Just a mindset change for the team, so they didn't fall into the "here we go again" mode. But I truly appreciate what McDermott did overall for our organization.

 

Plus, many people seem to overlook an important fact. McD brought in Beane, and Beane brought in Josh. People can say all they like that McD won only because of Josh (which I don't believe is 100% true), but if we didn't have McD, we almost certainly do not have Josh. And we are watching Josh win games for a different team/different city. 

 

[vtnatefootball11]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

OMG if you're correct, that would be the wierdest of weird happenings in the NFL.  Man has a W-L percentage of .662, which happens to be 15th overall in the NFL and 3rd (Third) among active coaches, behind Nick Sirianni and Jim Harbaugh and just ahead of Matt LaFleur.  John Harbaugh got another chance, immediately.  Marty Schottenheimer got 4 (Four). 

Mike Vrabel is on his 3rd, and I suppose everyone is all "whoo hoo!" because Superbowl his first year, neglecting the fact that his team got to play a team without its starting QB to get there and won by a FG - clearly some luck is involved there.  And of course in 2019, when Tannehill was "Comeback Player of the Year" they got spanked in the conf. championship by the Chiefs.

 

I Get It, you don't like McDermott, but given the number of sketchy, not particularly successful HC who get 2nd and 3rd tries McDermott not getting any HC offers would be hella weird.

Obligatory note that I am on record saying the Bills made the right decision to move on from McDermott.  One doesn't have to be a "fanboy" or "apologist" to look at the objective facts of his HC success and say that he should and very likely will, get another HC gig.

 

 

I agree if you look purely at his winning percentage, it would be unusual for him not to get a second chance, and maybe he will next year who knows, but I doubt it. He's a solid coach, but he simply does not have that high of a football IQ, it's obvious. Anything that he can't be ultra prepared for... he struggles. He was consistently outcoached by the better coaches in the league.  He's defensive oriented not offense, so that hurts him as far as head coaching chances, and his defenses are what killed us in the playoffs. Not to mention 13 seconds and some of the other gaffes. His personality is also not that inspiring, nor is his militant like coaching style. I think the rest of the league is lower on him than you think, and is not just going to blindly look at this winning percentage (bloated by the most talented QB of all time).  I think he struggles to even get a DC position at the NFL level. I see him going to college DC or NFL safety coach or something like that. 

Edited April 30 by vtnatefootball11