Is run defense really the problem behind no super bowl with Josh?

[BuckeyeBill]

Lack of passing defense.  When the money is on the line, our defensive line (no pun intended) doesn't show up, and the QB carves us up... Nix, Burrow, and Mahomes included.  Lack of depth in the secondary adds to this problem.  If our secondary can stay healthy, we have a chance... but the problem is the pass rush.  Hopefully TJ Parker and IGB can help fix this issue.  

[twoandfourteen]

3 hours ago, thenorthremembers said:

 

The greatest players of all time overcome the things advanced metrics tell you they shouldnt.  If you look at my list it literally says the things you're saying.  Yes, at times its been on the defense.  Other times special teams have been at fault.  But to ignore the fact that our QB has had chances to make history and failed is tone deaf.   

 

3 hours ago, 90sBills said:

Last year was the best opportunity to reach the Super Bowl. All the ‘elite’ teams and QBs were out except ours. The defense didn’t commit 5 turnovers. And yet, they were able to hold Denver to fg’s so the offense could have a chance to win in the end. The offense, once again, failed to come through in crunch time. 
 

To blame it all on defense after watching the last 3 playoff exits is just having blinders on. Allen and the offense came through in the 13 seconds game. They haven’t been able to do so since that game when it counts. 

 

God forbid the "defensive genius" head coach and his heavily over-invested defense pick up the slack on the rare occasion that the all-universe quarterback who single-handedly carries the team has slightly “off” afternoon.  

[NewEra]

There’s never one reason.  
 

I would rank the factors

 

Lack of pass rush >
 

Injuries to key players >

 

Defensive play calling >

 

Offensive execution in clutch moments 
 

 

 

[Stenbar]

No, it was the whole way our defense was played, lined up and ultimately destroyed in games when it mattered most, the playoffs. Hopefully that was fixed when the scared leader was canned.

[Dillenger4]

The Defense cost us 100%. We already look better on paper on D with the draft and FA. If the D can hold up their end of the bargain, our O has proven that they get the job done. Facts.

[ticketssince61]

5 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

In 2023, the Buffalo Bills offense was #6th in points and 4th in yards. The Buffalo defense was #4th in points allowed, and #9 in yards allowed. 11-6 This was the Ken Dorsey firing and the Joe Brady promotion, as the offense finished the season very balanced. 

Defensive Injuries and Wear: The Bills’ defense was significantly weakened by injuries, with numerous players rotating in and out. As the game went on, this lack of depth made it difficult to maintain intensity against Patrick Mahomes.

 

The "Missed" Moment: In the fourth quarter, a crucial missed 44-yard field goal by Tyler Bass—often called "Wide Right II"—prevented the Bills from tying the game, echoing historical heartbreak.

 

 

 

In 2024, the Buffalo offense was #2 in points and #10 in yards. The Buffalo defense was #11 in points allowed, and #17th in yards allowed. The Buffalo defense was actually way worse against the pass this season. This season, the saving for the Buffalo D was their +24 turnover ratio, best in the NFL. A 29-32 loss vs KC. 

Final Missed Opportunity ("Wide Right"):  With under two minutes left, kicker Tyler Bass missed a 44-yard field goal that would have tied the game

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Please don't use AI generated responses.

 

Bass did not have 44 yard wide rights in consecutive seasons

 

And in another thread we did not lose to the colts 27 to 10 in 2020

[Nihilarian]

15 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

Dude.  The Texans game was lost in OT, true, but the score was 22-19.  That's an objective fact.

And the score was 16-0 with 9 minutes left in the 3rd.  Also an objective fact.
 

It doesn't matter what the Bills defensive rank was during the season.  That doesn't excuse them from giving up a lead including 2 74+ yd drives.  But leading off your dissection with something so factually wrong kind of casts shade on the rest.

 

It's been a fact that the Bills defense ranked high during the regular season many of McDermott's years as their coach - 2nd twice, 1st once, 4th twice.They've also been problematic in the playoffs.

I honestly don't know where I got that final score from because I was using "Pro Football Reference." Yes, it was wrong. 22-19.  The Buffalo defense did sack Watson 7 times and hit him 12 times in that game. The Buffalo defense caused the Texans to end drives with a punt 5 times, one fumble, and one on downs. 

 

But to be objective about that game, Josh and the offense had the ball in the second series of OT from 13:26 to 9:14, ran 9 plays for 13 yards, and punted. That drive started at the Buffalo 30 and ended on the Buffalo 43. The Bills had a shot to score at the end and couldn't do anything. Houston got the ball back and went 73 yards to kick a FG to win.

 

My reason for ranking the defense was to note that over the last several seasons, the Bills have been decimated on defense with injuries to key players. One season, they had a Linebacker two weeks from off the street, and he started in a playoff game, and then got hurt and kept playing because nobody else could fill in. One year, they had a 6th-string DB start because the defensive backfield was so beaten up. 

 

This past year, the defense had 17 players out over the season due to injuries. As an example, it was Ed Oliver who caused the fumble in that first game against Baltimore in the 4th quarter that helped them win that game. Unfortunately, Oliver only played in 3 games all season, and in his last game against Denver in the playoffs, he played in the first half and left the game in the second half due to an injury. Poyer had a good season until he was out with an injury, and missed 6 games. Michael Hoecht looked like a game wrecker for his 2 games. Both Bernard and Milano played in only 12 games. Rapp played in 6 games. Benford 14 games. 

 

Yes, I agree that the Buffalo defense failed so many times at the end of the season. I'm not blaming McDermott's defensive scheme because that defense was #1 against the pass in 2025. 20th in sacks.   Alas, Buffalo didn't sack Bo Nix in that Denver playoff game at all. Rousseau was the only Buffalo player to even hit Nix all game. Who is to blame for no pass rush? 

[Kmart128]

It a not the reason we are losing playoff games. But it is probably the reason we have never been the #1 seed and had home field advantage throughout all of the playoffs which definitely could hurt our superbowl chances a little bit.

[BigAl2526]

I don't think it is ever smart to try and narrow the cause of the results of a season and playoff run down to a single factor.  It's always more complex than that, just like the outcome of a game is never the result of a single factor.  Even when you can point to a single play and say, "If that play had had a different outcome.  .  ." that play only had an important bearing on the game only because of multiple other factors.  So, the Bills had other issues that affected their playoff efforts, but run defense is something they certainly need to fix under Jim Leonhard.

[nuklz2594]

On 4/30/2026 at 9:52 AM, Nihilarian said:

Want real reasons? Then we need to dissect each ending game year by year.

 

In 2019, the Buffalo offense was ranked 23rd in points and 24th in yards. The Defense was ranked #2 in points allowed and #3 in yards allowed. Top 5 passing defense, top 10 rushing defense. Buffalo's defense really was not at fault, as they held them to 10 points.

Buffalo lost to the Texans at Houston 10-7 in OT. The game ended on a Texans FG.

 

In 2020, the Buffalo offense was ranked #2 overall, mostly from passing, finishing 13-3. The defense was 16th in points allowed and 14th in yards allowed. 

Offensive Inconsistency: Despite an early 9-0 lead, the Bills' offense struggled to finish drives, settling for field goals rather than touchdowns.

Defense Overpowered: The Chiefs' offense, led by Patrick Mahomes, moved the ball efficiently and capitalized on scoring opportunities, overcoming the Buffalo defense. So yes, you could say that the Buffalo defense simply wasn't good enough in a 38-24 loss. 

 

In 2021, the Buffalo offense was ranked #3 in points and #5 in yards. The Buffalo defense was ranked #1 overall and mostly against the pass. 

The Final 13 Seconds: After taking a 36-33 lead with only 13 seconds remaining, the Bills' defense failed to stop the Chiefs. They allowed two quick passes to Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, covering 44 yards, which set up a game-tying field goal by Kansas City as time expired.

Defensive Alignment: On that final drive, the Bills played excessively deep zone coverage, allowing the Chiefs to gain quick yardage in the middle of the field without tackling anyone in bounds. So yes, you could say the Buffalo defense wasn't able to stop Mahomes when it counted. 36-42 loss in OT. Buffalo was a 97.8 favorite to win.

 

In 2022, the Buffalo offense was ranked #2 overall. The Buffalo defense was ranked #2 in points allowed and #6 in yards allowed. 13-3 This was the heart attack year, and the entire team went flat due to extremely unusual circumstances. Loss to Cincy 10-27. 

 

In 2023, the Buffalo Bills offense was #6th in points and 4th in yards. The Buffalo defense was #4th in points allowed, and #9 in yards allowed. 11-6 This was the Ken Dorsey firing and the Joe Brady promotion, as the offense finished the season very balanced. 

Defensive Injuries and Wear: The Bills’ defense was significantly weakened by injuries, with numerous players rotating in and out. As the game went on, this lack of depth made it difficult to maintain intensity against Patrick Mahomes.

The "Missed" Moment: In the fourth quarter, a crucial missed 44-yard field goal by Tyler Bass—often called "Wide Right II"—prevented the Bills from tying the game, echoing historical heartbreak.

Failed Fourth-Down Conversion: In the final minutes, a failed fake punt attempt, resulting in a failed fourth-and-5, cost the Bills possession, allowing the Chiefs to run down the clock.

Offensive Inconsistency: Despite a strong effort from Josh Allen, the offense struggled to capitalize on opportunities at times, including a dropped pass by Dalton Kincaid that stalled a potential scoring drive. Snake bit all the way around? Defensive injuries. Missed FG. Dropped pass. Stuff happens!

 

In 2024, the Buffalo offense was #2 in points and #10 in yards. The Buffalo defense was #11 in points allowed, and #17th in yards allowed. The Buffalo defense was actually way worse against the pass this season. This season, the saving for the Buffalo D was their +24 turnover ratio, best in the NFL. A 29-32 loss vs KC. 

Final Missed Opportunity ("Wide Right"): With under two minutes left, kicker Tyler Bass missed a 44-yard field goal that would have tied the game 0.5.5.

Devastating Injuries: The Bills' defense was heavily depleted by injuries, particularly in the secondary and linebacker corps, which limited their ability to contain Patrick Mahomes 0.5.4, 0.5.5.

Failed Fourth Down Attempts: Buffalo failed to convert on two crucial fourth-down situations, including a fourth-and-5 late in the game, turning the ball over on downs rather than taking points 0.5.8. Two drives, one in the 3rd, one in the 4th, ended on downs. 

 

In 2025, the Buffalo offense was ranked #4 overall, being the best run game in the league with the #1 RB. The Buffalo defense was #12 in points allowed, #7 in yards allowed. This year, Buffalo was 28th in rush yards allowed and 30th in rush TDs allowed. There were some freaky bad games this season in Atlanta, Miami, and Houston. The playoff loss was primarily due to five turnovers, crucial late-game penalties, and significant defensive injuries in the secondary. Despite a high-powered offensive effort, the Bills' mistakes allowed Denver to score 16 points off turnovers. 

NFL.com +3. Denver QB Bo Nix was never sacked in this game.

 

In Conclusion, for not reaching an SB.

 

The Kansas City "Buzzsaw": The primary obstacle was the Kansas City Chiefs, who eliminated the Bills in multiple postseason matchups.The most winning team in the NFL over the last 10 years. Buffalo was #2. 

 

"13 Seconds" and Defensive Collapses: In the 2021 divisional round, the defense allowed a game-tying field goal in just 13 seconds, leading to an overtime loss. Subsequent seasons also saw late-game defensive failures, including in 2025, when they allowed over 30 points in critical losses.

 

Run Defense and Inconsistency: The defense struggled to stop the run in crucial moments, allowing 136.2 rushing yards per game in the 2025 postseason, and was inconsistent on third-and-short situations.

 

Playoff Offensive Stagnation: While the offense was often elite, it failed to perform consistently in key moments, often failing to score more than 20 points in several of their playoff losses.

 

Over-reliance on Josh Allen: The team often relied entirely on QB Josh Allen to produce, with a lack of consistent wide receiver talent outside of key playmakers contributing to offensive pressure this past year.

 

Injuries and Roster Turnover: Late-season injuries to key defensive players and inconsistencies in the defensive line hampered their ability to make stops when needed.

 

You can blame McDermott. You can blame Beane. You can blame bad luck and injuries at the end of the season on both sides of the ball. Just one time, I'd like to see the Buffalo Bills have a lucky season like the New England Patriots had in 2025. 

 

 

 

 

[BillyJoeBills]

Lack of pass rush, CB play and clutch receiving going back to 3 playoff losses to KC to OT loss to Denver; Mahomes pitching TDs vs CBs and going 44 yds in 13 seconds, finishing us in OT; and finally the Kincaid and Cooks failures to come up with the Catch- the NY Giants won 2 SBs on the clutch grabs of David Tyree and Mario Manningham, just ordinary players who came through extraordinarily for just one moment in time. 

[Mikey152]

On 5/1/2026 at 5:36 AM, Nihilarian said:

I honestly don't know where I got that final score from because I was using "Pro Football Reference." Yes, it was wrong. 22-19.  The Buffalo defense did sack Watson 7 times and hit him 12 times in that game. The Buffalo defense caused the Texans to end drives with a punt 5 times, one fumble, and one on downs. 

 

But to be objective about that game, Josh and the offense had the ball in the second series of OT from 13:26 to 9:14, ran 9 plays for 13 yards, and punted. That drive started at the Buffalo 30 and ended on the Buffalo 43. The Bills had a shot to score at the end and couldn't do anything. Houston got the ball back and went 73 yards to kick a FG to win.

 

My reason for ranking the defense was to note that over the last several seasons, the Bills have been decimated on defense with injuries to key players. One season, they had a Linebacker two weeks from off the street, and he started in a playoff game, and then got hurt and kept playing because nobody else could fill in. One year, they had a 6th-string DB start because the defensive backfield was so beaten up. 

 

This past year, the defense had 17 players out over the season due to injuries. As an example, it was Ed Oliver who caused the fumble in that first game against Baltimore in the 4th quarter that helped them win that game. Unfortunately, Oliver only played in 3 games all season, and in his last game against Denver in the playoffs, he played in the first half and left the game in the second half due to an injury. Poyer had a good season until he was out with an injury, and missed 6 games. Michael Hoecht looked like a game wrecker for his 2 games. Both Bernard and Milano played in only 12 games. Rapp played in 6 games. Benford 14 games. 

 

Yes, I agree that the Buffalo defense failed so many times at the end of the season. I'm not blaming McDermott's defensive scheme because that defense was #1 against the pass in 2025. 20th in sacks.   Alas, Buffalo didn't sack Bo Nix in that Denver playoff game at all. Rousseau was the only Buffalo player to even hit Nix all game. Who is to blame for no pass rush? 

I don’t ever quite get this logic. 
 

It was the injuries, but those guys were out during the regular season and the Bills were “#1 against the pass”

 

It was the pass rush, not the scheme…isn’t the pass rush part of the scheme?

 

It was the run defense, not the pass defense…isn’t part of the reason the run defense sucked because we focused so much on pass defense?

 

Here is what I know. McDermott liked to play a lot of split safety and he usually paired it with lots of zone and an unbalanced line. That setup puts A LOT of stress on your middle linebacker (open middle) and overhang player (unbalanced line). They are CONSTANTLY in conflict.

 

The rest snowballs from there. Run defenders on the line to protect those players, less stunts to preserve gap integrity, etc. What you wind up with is a defense that keeps pass plays in front of them and gets chances to make plays on the ball, but doesn’t get a lot of pressure. You also get a run defense that is relying heavily on pass defenders at the second level, which means probably not great. 
 

IMO, the Bills defense looked best over the last 5 years when they broke these tendencies. Hoecht was a wrecking ball because they ran more stunts because the chiefs don’t run the football. They magically got better at run defense when safties were the overhang. 
 

it was all the scheme. The good and the bad. In general, it kept us from losing games and let the offense do its thing. But when it didn’t work, it was spectacularly bad. And that usually happened at really bad times for a variety of reasons that all tie back to the scheme and a general lack of willingness to adapt

[nuklz2594]

the QB must go down, and he must go down hard...al davis

it ain't rocket surgery kids...our defense needs to be all gas, no brakes

[13 Seconds to Mars]

Defense (as a whole) and ST have been the downfall of the Bills in the playoffs. When your offense routinely puts up 30+ and you have one of the most efficient postseason QBs of all time, but no championship then the blame lies on that side of the ball. 
 

Not to bring up the Allen vs Lamar debate (is it really a debate?) but if Allen had that defense, he would have a couple rings by now. In 2024 they held them to 17 points.
 

27, 27, 27, 33, and 42 are the points the D allowed in the last 5 playoff losses. That is atrocious especially when you factor in having an efficient offense that generally give your defense plenty of rest and great field position.

 

I love McDermott. He was necessary in the Bills turnaround, but the league has adapted to his scheme  and he’s shown no willingness to adapt himself. 

edit: I wanted to add it’s surprising McDermott lasted as long as he did. He got a longer leash than most because of breaking the drought.

 

Edited May 3 by 13 Seconds to Mars

[TD716]

In our last 5 playoff losses the defense has given up an average of 33 points per game. That’s all that needs to be said. Defensive line waves of players is the main reason. All average to below average lineman. No defensive line stud to defend run and pass equally and stay on the field in key situations. Glad for the philosophy change. Sad to see no anchor 1T was brought in for 1st and second run downs. Will keep an open mind with our new aggressive DC. 

[ganesh]

On 4/30/2026 at 2:12 AM, ngbills said:

Bingo - Its the pass rush. A good pass rush can cover up other issues in the secondary etc. Especially come playoff time, any decent qb will carve you up if you dont get enough pressure.

Now next question is was that a scheme issue or a player personnel issue ?

[Nihilarian]

On 4/30/2026 at 1:02 PM, ngbills said:

Did anyone notice how many NFL playoff games came down to the last drive? Wild card round 4 of 6 games decided by one score, 2 of 4 in div round, 2-2 of in conf champ. So in games to get to super bowl 8 of the 12 games were one score games. NFL playoff games are about being in position to win  late.

 

Then its about which team makes the plays at the end to win.

 

Against DEN the Bills had 3 chances on O to win the game: up 27-23 at the DEN 14 they settled for a FG.

 

The last drive of regulation, while they were able to tie it, they had multiple shots at the end zone for the win. Then in OT a FG wins it and they failed.

 

These are the situations any coach or QB would take and with a MVP best in the league QB you expect to win that game. Yet people want to blame the D for not being able to stop DEN one final time after holding them to like 50 yards the entire second half and now playing with guys like Savage and Dane Jackson in the secondary. 

This!

 

So many Buffalo Bills fans are so myopic about Sean McDermott and endlessly spew dislike and downright hate for the second-winningest HC in the NFL over the last decade. Only the KC Chiefs have been better. Some Bills fans list all the injuries as simple excuses and not reasons.  

 

Any offense that gives up five turnovers in a game shouldn't have a chance in hell to win it, and yet the Buffalo offense could have overcome those...alas, they failed. 

 

To those who just don't get how important a pass rush is to a defense is that almost any bum of a QB can look decent when facing no pass rush.  Denver QB Bo Nix was only hit by Groot in that playoff game and wasn't sacked all game. Yet, Bills fans want to blame the defensive scheme. No CBs, or defensive secondary no matter how good they are, can hold contain forever. 

[Kirby Jackson]

The Bills run defense has been bad. You don’t win or lose games in the playoffs because of run defense. The Bills have lost to elite QBs and Bo Nix. They’ve lost playoff games because they haven’t been able to slow Mahomes.

 

If I was ranking the importance of pass offense, run offense, pass defense and run defense, run defense would be a distant 4th. You can negate the need to defend the run by playing from ahead. The 2007 Pats, the best team I’ve ever seen, saw the fewest runs attempts in the league. Why? Trying to establish the run and keep up with a great offense isn’t possible. If you play from ahead, you make teams one dimensional. That’s the answer to the Bills run defense. Go get the lead. In 2025 they had a negative 1st half point differential. Teams could run the ball well into the 2nd half.
 

The Bills saw 26.1 rushing attempts per game last year. That was the 10th fewest but generally bad teams see the most rush attempts against. Everyone is pretty much clustered together with a few outliers. The Jags saw the fewest at just under 22. 

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

The Bills run defense has been bad. You don’t win or lose games in the playoffs because of run defense. The Bills have lost to elite QBs and Bo Nix. They’ve lost playoff games because they haven’t been able to slow Mahomes.

 

If I was ranking the importance of pass offense, run offense, pass defense and run defense, run defense would be a distant 4th. You can negate the need to defend the run by playing from ahead. The 2007 Pats, the best team I’ve ever seen, saw the fewest runs attempts in the league. Why? Trying to establish the run and keep up with a great offense isn’t possible. If you play from ahead, you make teams one dimensional. That’s the answer to the Bills run defense. Go get the lead. In 2025 they had a negative 1st half point differential. Teams could run the ball well into the 2nd half.
 

The Bills saw 26.1 rushing attempts per game last year. That was the 10th fewest but generally bad teams see the most rush attempts against. Everyone is pretty much clustered together with a few outliers. The Jags saw the fewest at just under 22. 

I've made the argument before that you actually want your run defense to be average statistically ie you want to incentivize a certain amount of rush attempts since every rush attempt vs your defense takes away a +ev passing attempt

[Dunkirk Donski]

On 4/30/2026 at 3:34 PM, ticketssince61 said:

 

 

Please don't use AI generated responses.

 

 

 

 

Dont be dissin the bot bros