Some thoughts on Pete Carmichael and how the scheme / System should look.

[BuffaloBillsGospel2014]

Please no more Shakir at Punt returner, we can't afford to lose him.

[JaBu]

2 hours ago, Victory Formation said:

Well it is curious isn't it?? Am I the only one who's asked the question?? Why make a lateral move like that without increased powers/incentives?????

It wasn’t a lateral move, Joe Lombardi was the offensive coordinator for Denver. Pete Carmichael had the title of senior offensive assistant. So he likely came to Buffalo because he wanted to be an offensive coordinator again. 

[Victory Formation]

27 minutes ago, JaBu said:

It wasn’t a lateral move, Joe Lombardi was the offensive coordinator for Denver. Pete Carmichael had the title of senior offensive assistant. So he likely came to Buffalo because he wanted to be an offensive coordinator again. 

Thank you for the correction..

[Ethan in Cleveland]

We all saw how devastating Thurman Thomas was out of the backfield. 

Cook should be just as great catching the ball downfield. 

You could see a case where his rush yards drop by 200 but his recieving yards go up by 200 or more.

Kincaid when healthy and Cook are match-up night mares. If Moore is a credible threat downfield then it opens everything up for Kincaid, Cook, and Shakir. Even Davis and Johnson are good out if the backfield.

 

So excited to see what this team looks like the first month of the season. 

[GunnerBill]

6 hours ago, BidsJr said:

WTF does this even mean?

 

They are totally different players. I don't think you can just look at the way Drew executed that offense and transplant Josh into it. He was the best anticipatory thrower in the NFL, his precision and timing were the most elite of the elite. 

 

He didn't have nearly the gifts that Josh has in terms of his size, arm strength, playmaking ability, ability to extend plays outside the pocket. There are throws Josh can make on a rope that Drew could never have made and wouldn't even have attempted. 

 

But the way that New Orleans offense was designed was to maximise what Drew did at an elite level. And that is different to what Josh does at an elite level. So they can't just drag and drop all the same concepts. You are going to have to tinker a little.

[iccrewman112]

5 hours ago, MasterStrategist said:

Cook is definitely underutilized in pass game.  Mostly because we have had next to nothing RB screen game.  

haven’t had an RB screen game since early-mid Fred Jackson.

[Not at the table Karlos]

11 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

First off I am absolutely thrilled he is our OC.  He was the offensive coordinator during the team's prime Drew Brees era. During that time he helped lead the Saints to a top-10 offense for 11 straight seasons (2009–2019) and won Super Bowl XLIV.  We all know Brees was great, HOF Great, but he never had the pure talent Allen does which is why I am really excited.  

 

What changes I predict coming?  Historically his offenses look to the #1 WR (Moore in our case) then it gets interesting.  RB and TE are normally the #'s 2 & 3 in receptions.  If you look at his time from 2009 - 2023 as OC it breaks down like this... (and to all my Stat geeks out there, You're welcome 🙂  )

 

Total Receptions by Position (2009–2023)

 

Position                                                  

Wide Receiver

Total Receptions  3,230

Key Contributors 

Michael Thomas, Marques Colston, Brandin Cooks, Chris Olave

 

Running Back

1,868

Alvin Kamara, Darren Sproles, Pierre Thomas, Reggie Bush

 

Tight End

1,145

Jimmy Graham, Benjamin Watson, Jared Cook, Taysom Hill

 

 So... It can be logically deduced Moore, Kincaid and Cook will get the lions share of the Catches this year.  Which isn't a bad thing!  I believe Carmichael compared Cook to Kamara skill set wise in his presser.   

 

The Trends show: (and yes I used AI research for this LOL)

 

#1 Wide receiver consistently led the way, highlighted by Michael Thomas’s NFL-record 149 receptions in 2019.

 

RB Heavy Usage: The Saints frequently utilized "scatbacks." Between 2017 and 2020, running backs often accounted for nearly 30% of the team's total catches, primarily through Alvin Kamara.

 

Tight end production peaked between 2011 and 2014, when Jimmy Graham averaged over 88 catches per season, making the TE position a primary focal point of the passing game. I can see this with Kincaid.

 

One of the things that I am excited about  is he had Brees and the other QB's he worked with emphasize staying in scheme.  I see his completion % going up and less hits taken. I feel We will see the best version of Allen under Carmichael.  Carmichael knows what it takes to consistently have a top offense and get to/ Win a Superbowl.

 

I think under Carmichael we see Allen develop into his final form and stay that way for a few years.

 

 

 

 

I hope he can get Josh to consistently play within the scheme but I’m not holding my breath. 

[Not at the table Karlos]

7 hours ago, Victory Formation said:

Well it is curious isn't it?? Am I the only one who's asked the question?? Why make a lateral move like that without increased powers/incentives?????

He didn’t make a lateral move. He was an offensive assistant in Denver. He’s the OC here. 
 

Edit. Was already answered above 

Edited April 29 by Not at the table Karlos

[machine gun kelly]

Brady made the right call bringing in a highly accomplished and experienced OC.  His early view is recreating what he learned from Payton.  Payton is one heck of an offensive mind, and believe if his QB didnt break his foot, we would’ve seen Denver, not NE in the SB.  I still think they would’ve lost, but would’ve enjoyed more than NE.  It just makes me hate Vrabel even more.

[NoSaint]

10 hours ago, Victory Formation said:

Well it is curious isn't it?? Am I the only one who's asked the question?? Why make a lateral move like that without increased powers/incentives?????

maybe be really likes Brady 

 

maybe he’s getting more cash 

 

Denver wasn’t his choice maybe he likes the opportunity to leave

 

maybe he and Sean were having some disagreements 

 

maybe he’s really excited about Josh and cook instead of nix

 

You too could list many reasons a coach may leave laterally

[transient]

13 hours ago, Victory Formation said:

I'd like to see Brady install his 12 man packages, but I hope that Carmichael calls the plays..

 

Brady put this world class Coaching staff together, learn to delegate power to the coaches underneath him..

Watch the Saints in the 2022 and 2023 seasons without Payton... you don't want Carmichael calling plays. Granted, the talent was diluted from previous years, but the offense was terrible. You want him right where he is, helping design the offense,  installing game plans, and providing advice. It's fine if he occasionally call plays when Brady is occupied with other HC'ly things. 

[JP51]

16 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

First off I am absolutely thrilled he is our OC.  He was the offensive coordinator during the team's prime Drew Brees era. During that time he helped lead the Saints to a top-10 offense for 11 straight seasons (2009–2019) and won Super Bowl XLIV.  We all know Brees was great, HOF Great, but he never had the pure talent Allen does which is why I am really excited.  

 

What changes I predict coming?  Historically his offenses look to the #1 WR (Moore in our case) then it gets interesting.  RB and TE are normally the #'s 2 & 3 in receptions.  If you look at his time from 2009 - 2023 as OC it breaks down like this... (and to all my Stat geeks out there, You're welcome 🙂  )

 

Total Receptions by Position (2009–2023)

 

Position                                                  

Wide Receiver

Total Receptions  3,230

Key Contributors 

Michael Thomas, Marques Colston, Brandin Cooks, Chris Olave

 

Running Back

1,868

Alvin Kamara, Darren Sproles, Pierre Thomas, Reggie Bush

 

Tight End

1,145

Jimmy Graham, Benjamin Watson, Jared Cook, Taysom Hill

 

 So... It can be logically deduced Moore, Kincaid and Cook will get the lions share of the Catches this year.  Which isn't a bad thing!  I believe Carmichael compared Cook to Kamara skill set wise in his presser.   

 

The Trends show: (and yes I used AI research for this LOL)

 

#1 Wide receiver consistently led the way, highlighted by Michael Thomas’s NFL-record 149 receptions in 2019.

 

RB Heavy Usage: The Saints frequently utilized "scatbacks." Between 2017 and 2020, running backs often accounted for nearly 30% of the team's total catches, primarily through Alvin Kamara.

 

Tight end production peaked between 2011 and 2014, when Jimmy Graham averaged over 88 catches per season, making the TE position a primary focal point of the passing game. I can see this with Kincaid.

 

One of the things that I am excited about  is he had Brees and the other QB's he worked with emphasize staying in scheme.  I see his completion % going up and less hits taken. I feel We will see the best version of Allen under Carmichael.  Carmichael knows what it takes to consistently have a top offense and get to/ Win a Superbowl.

 

I think under Carmichael we see Allen develop into his final form and stay that way for a few years.

 

 

 

 

Thanks for this factoid concept... this is great. I am hopeful like you, this will move the offense forward... 

8 hours ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

We all saw how devastating Thurman Thomas was out of the backfield. 

Cook should be just as great catching the ball downfield. 

You could see a case where his rush yards drop by 200 but his recieving yards go up by 200 or more.

Kincaid when healthy and Cook are match-up night mares. If Moore is a credible threat downfield then it opens everything up for Kincaid, Cook, and Shakir. Even Davis and Johnson are good out if the backfield.

 

So excited to see what this team looks like the first month of the season. 

I agree here, I was initially under the impression JC was a pass catching back... I know he has had drops... but so did Thurman... 34 exclusively an RB is a great RB. 34 adding to that with his pass catching presence, HOF... I would love to see if JC could be used this way more effectively. 

[SoonerBillsFan]

13 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

As in Drew is a 5-7 step drop back pocket passer only and that’s not Josh.

And that has been a problem for Josh he needs to correct.  Playground football isnt the way you improve in your later years and win a superbowl.

 

Josh,Like Elway did, needs to learn to take his drops, hit the back foot and get the ball out.  He does this then he is going to improve as a QB,

[transient]

2 hours ago, JP51 said:

Thanks for this factoid concept... this is great. I am hopeful like you, this will move the offense forward... 

I agree here, I was initially under the impression JC was a pass catching back... I know he has had drops... but so did Thurman... 34 exclusively an RB is a great RB. 34 adding to that with his pass catching presence, HOF... I would love to see if JC could be used this way more effectively. 

One of my first thoughts when they hired Carmichael was I can hardly wait to see them use Cook like they used Kamara in NOLA. A dump off to Cook as your safety valve 3-4 times per game could be deadly and the threat of it should loosen things up for your WRs. Re the drops, I think throwing it to him out of the backfield a handful of times per game will keep him more engaged and the "whoopsies" will go down.

[JP51]

3 minutes ago, transient said:

One of my first thoughts when they hired Carmichael was I can hardly wait to see them use Cook like they used Kamara in NOLA. A dump off to Cook as your safety valve 3-4 times per game could be deadly and the threat of it should loosen things up for your WRs. Re the drops, I think throwing it to him out of the backfield a handful of times per game will keep him more engaged and the "whoopsies" will go down.

I agree and a threat to go down field coming out of the back field makes defenses not able to cheat... I certainly think this gets Ty a bit of an advantage when they do hand off to him... 

[bigK14094]

18 hours ago, somnus00 said:

Makes the signing of Acker and Reid a little clearer. I'm not saying either of these 2 make the final roster (though Acker has a cleaner path). But they are both good pass catching options out of the backfield. Ty and Ray have also made plays there. Should be a fun competition at RB behind Jimbo 2.0.

Ray Davis led the NFL in kickoff returns last year.  He i sn't going anywhere.

[ColoradoBills]

14 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

Its not curious at all.  He only called plays in emergencies mostly.   Maybe he knows building game plans is what he is an expert at, and wants to just do that.

 

I dont have an answer for you, all reports, all Bradys comments are that Carmichael is the OC and Brady will call plays on game day.

 

Nothing else im going to say in this.

 

What I like is Carmichael's skill in game planning specifically against the weeks opposing D.  It seems to me that has not been a strength

of the Bills last couple of OCs.  Putting together a play call sheet for Brady to understand the D's tendencies should help Joe a lot.

[Julio Hopkins]

17 hours ago, Victory Formation said:

I have a question for you then... Why do you think Carmichael came here then?? He's been with Coach Payton forever..

Webb probably replaced him.  Maybe Carmichael still wants a shot at being a head coach and that wasn’t going to happen with Payton.  

[ColoradoBills]

Maybe Pete really believes he can be a big help to Joe Brady, and he started a good friendship with Leonhard.

Help get everyone a ring.  That is what I think.

[Chandler#81]