Some thoughts on Pete Carmichael and how the scheme / System should look.

[SoonerBillsFan]

First off I am absolutely thrilled he is our OC.  He was the offensive coordinator during the team's prime Drew Brees era. During that time he helped lead the Saints to a top-10 offense for 11 straight seasons (2009–2019) and won Super Bowl XLIV.  We all know Brees was great, HOF Great, but he never had the pure talent Allen does which is why I am really excited.  

 

What changes I predict coming?  Historically his offenses look to the #1 WR (Moore in our case) then it gets interesting.  RB and TE are normally the #'s 2 & 3 in receptions.  If you look at his time from 2009 - 2023 as OC it breaks down like this... (and to all my Stat geeks out there, You're welcome 🙂  )

 

Total Receptions by Position (2009–2023)

 

Position                                                  

Wide Receiver

Total Receptions  3,230

Key Contributors 

Michael Thomas, Marques Colston, Brandin Cooks, Chris Olave

 

Running Back

1,868

Alvin Kamara, Darren Sproles, Pierre Thomas, Reggie Bush

 

Tight End

1,145

Jimmy Graham, Benjamin Watson, Jared Cook, Taysom Hill

 

 So... It can be logically deduced Moore, Kincaid and Cook will get the lions share of the Catches this year.  Which isn't a bad thing!  I believe Carmichael compared Cook to Kamara skill set wise in his presser.   

 

The Trends show: (and yes I used AI research for this LOL)

 

#1 Wide receiver consistently led the way, highlighted by Michael Thomas’s NFL-record 149 receptions in 2019.

 

RB Heavy Usage: The Saints frequently utilized "scatbacks." Between 2017 and 2020, running backs often accounted for nearly 30% of the team's total catches, primarily through Alvin Kamara.

 

Tight end production peaked between 2011 and 2014, when Jimmy Graham averaged over 88 catches per season, making the TE position a primary focal point of the passing game. I can see this with Kincaid.

 

One of the things that I am excited about  is he had Brees and the other QB's he worked with emphasize staying in scheme.  I see his completion % going up and less hits taken. I feel We will see the best version of Allen under Carmichael.  Carmichael knows what it takes to consistently have a top offense and get to/ Win a Superbowl.

 

I think under Carmichael we see Allen develop into his final form and stay that way for a few years.

 

 

 

 

Edited April 28 by SoonerBillsFan

[somnus00]

Makes the signing of Acker and Reid a little clearer. I'm not saying either of these 2 make the final roster (though Acker has a cleaner path). But they are both good pass catching options out of the backfield. Ty and Ray have also made plays there. Should be a fun competition at RB behind Jimbo 2.0.

[GunnerBill]

I mean I hope so. I'm not sure Josh will ever be Drew. But he can do things Drew couldn't. I do think Pete might help unlock Cook in particular. I feel as though Brady had underutilised Cook as a receiver. 

1 minute ago, somnus00 said:

Makes the signing of Acker and Reid a little clearer. I'm not saying either of these 2 make the final roster (though Acker has a cleaner path). But they are both good pass catching options out of the backfield. Ty and Ray have also made plays there. Should be a fun competition at RB behind Jimbo 2.0.

 

Davis and Ty will be RBs 2 and 3 if healthy. No question.

[SoonerBillsFan]

20 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

I mean I hope so. I'm not sure Josh will ever be Drew. But he can do things Drew couldn't. I do think Pete might help unlock Cook in particular. I feel as though Brady had underutilised Cook as a receiver. 

 

Davis and Ty will be RBs 2 and 3 if healthy. No question.

Davis secured his spot going All Pro as a Return man and Ty is great out of the backfield as well. But Acker would be a good PS add.

[Steptide]

Having him makes me alot more comfortable with Brady as hc. With this being Bradys first year, I expect some hiccups, Carmichael can help keep the ship steady

[nosejob]

54 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

I mean I hope so. I'm not sure Josh will ever be Drew. But he can do things Drew couldn't. I do think Pete might help unlock Cook in particular. I feel as though Brady had underutilised Cook as a receiver. 

 

Davis and Ty will be RBs 2 and 3 if healthy. No question.

NO YOU DIDN'T..  Cook I agree with. You could send him down the sidelines. Just hope he makes the catch....

[nosejob]

54 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

I mean I hope so. I'm not sure Josh will ever be Drew. But he can do things Drew couldn't. I do think Pete might help unlock Cook in particular. I feel as though Brady had underutilised Cook as a receiver. 

 

Davis and Ty will be RBs 2 and 3 if healthy. No question.

NO YOU DIDN'T..  Cook I agree with. You could send him down the sidelines. Just hope he makes the catch....

 

58 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

I mean I hope so. I'm not sure Josh will ever be Drew. But he can do things Drew couldn't. I do think Pete might help unlock Cook in particular. I feel as though Brady had underutilised Cook as a receiver. 

 

Davis and Ty will be RBs 2 and 3 if healthy. No question.

Do we still have Frank jr?

[NoSaint]

A few things I’ve talked about from kromer and Brady days- 

 

athletic guards - often tackles moved

 

tackles getting early reps as OL6 instead of blocking tight ends 

 

running backs very involved in screens, crossers, wheels. Stuff I feel like we saw Brady flash then reel in. So curious if that comes back with McDermott gone and his tendency to scrap things after a flub or two.

I remain curious if Shakir could get closer to the lance moore role with more work in the seams 

 

it’ll sound silly but I can’t tell you how often the saints ran 4 verticals with a little rb route underneath (or the rb carrying a vertical with someone else crossing underneath). Simple back everyone up - throw a laser in a mismatch or dump it underneath in space. A lot of concepts were super easy, force them to commit to stop you and then have a wrinkle off of it - we see that often with Brady running a winning play repeatedly until the have to fully commit to stopping. I don’t think we always hit the counterpunch. Also sometimes we get stuck in one that’s not working even if it should.

Edited April 29 by NoSaint

[Victory Formation]

I'd like to see Brady install his 12 man packages, but I hope that Carmichael calls the plays..

 

Brady put this world class Coaching staff together, learn to delegate power to the coaches underneath him..

[SoonerBillsFan]

17 minutes ago, Victory Formation said:

I'd like to see Brady install his 12 man packages, but I hope that Carmichael calls the plays..

 

Brady put this world class Coaching staff together, learn to delegate power to the coaches underneath him..

They made it clear Carmichael designs the gameplan, Brady calls the plays

[BuffaloBillyG]

Carmichael is a phenomenal Monday-Saturday OC. Even Sean Payton sings his praises at game planning. He's really going to be able to free up Joe Brady to coach over the whole team. I think being able to handle the offense during the week will make Carmichael invaluable. 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, nosejob said:

NO YOU DIDN'T..  Cook I agree with. You could send him down the sidelines. Just hope he makes the catch....

 

Do we still have Frank jr?

 

Yea Frank is still on the roster.

[BidsJr]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I mean I hope so. I'm not sure Josh will ever be Drew. But he can do things Drew couldn't. I do think Pete might help unlock Cook in particular. I feel as though Brady had underutilised Cook as a receiver. 

 

Davis and Ty will be RBs 2 and 3 if healthy. No question.

WTF does this even mean?

[Victory Formation]

45 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

They made it clear Carmichael designs the gameplan, Brady calls the plays

I have a question for you then... Why do you think Carmichael came here then?? He's been with Coach Payton forever..

[SoonerBillsFan]

44 minutes ago, Victory Formation said:

I have a question for you then... Why do you think Carmichael came here then?? He's been with Coach Payton forever..

You would have to ask him.  Brady has said repeatedly said he calls the plays on gameday.

[MasterStrategist]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I mean I hope so. I'm not sure Josh will ever be Drew. But he can do things Drew couldn't. I do think Pete might help unlock Cook in particular. I feel as though Brady had underutilised Cook as a receiver. 

 

Davis and Ty will be RBs 2 and 3 if healthy. No question.

Cook is definitely underutilized in pass game.  Mostly because we have had next to nothing RB screen game.  

 

Carmichael has more experience than Brady in that aspect.  If we double our RB screens, we will still be under or around league avg.  Alot of potential there.

 

This is definitely our best offensive coaching staff, collectively, for quite a while.  This is likely to be the best staff surrounding Josh for a single season, if he isnt the Mvp favorite then that's an easy bet.

[Victory Formation]

26 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

You would have to ask him.  Brady has said repeatedly said he calls the plays on gameday.

Well it is curious isn't it?? Am I the only one who's asked the question?? Why make a lateral move like that without increased powers/incentives?????

[SoonerBillsFan]

24 minutes ago, Victory Formation said:

Well it is curious isn't it?? Am I the only one who's asked the question?? Why make a lateral move like that without increased powers/incentives?????

Its not curious at all.  He only called plays in emergencies mostly.   Maybe he knows building game plans is what he is an expert at, and wants to just do that.

 

I dont have an answer for you, all reports, all Bradys comments are that Carmichael is the OC and Brady will call plays on game day.

 

Nothing else im going to say in this.

[Royale with Cheese]

1 hour ago, BidsJr said:

WTF does this even mean?

As in Drew is a 5-7 step drop back pocket passer only and that’s not Josh.

[Sierra Foothills]

Great topic @SoonerBillsFan.

 

There's a tendency for people to stereotype Josh Allen and I think that does him a bit of disrespect.

 

I believe Josh can be any type of QB he sets out to be and I'm super excited to see him evolve into an even more cerebral player... one who is more neck up than neck down... his career longevity actually depends on it.

 

As for the team around him, the Bills are excellent at O-line and TE... RB is well above average and I think with the WR lineup finally shored up with DJ Moore and Skyler Bell added to Kahlil Shakir... the offensive skill positions are starting to look pretty formidable.

 

To me one of the bigger questions is whether James Cook can take that final step and become a dependable, sure-handed player.

 

The season can't come soon enough!