GunnerBill Posted April 22 Posted April 22 (edited) The Las Vegas Raiders are now on the clock! Well, not quite, but we are nearly there. Time for the talking to stop and the picking to begin. I have been doing these draft compendiums for about 8 years now and they are not only useful now but as a reference tool to compare back to in the future. The Bills only have one pick in the top 90 and it isn’t the strongest class… so for some the excitement doesn’t quite match other years… but the NFL Draft always throws up suspense and surprises. So here we go. Products already on the board: 2026 Draft Sleepers 2026 Mock Draft Gunner & Gonzo Ep 1 - early thoughts on Bills needs and the class Gunner & Gonzo Ep 2 - post free agency Bills needs plus scenarios Gunner & Gonzo Ep 3 - full two round mock draft New content in this thread: Full list of my 14 first round grades Analysis of my Top 100 Positional Top 5s [Key: * denotes medical concern; ^ denotes potential off-field / behavioural concern] First Round Grades: 1. Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State 2. Arvell Reese, EDGE, Ohio State 3. David Bailey, EDGE, Texas Tech 4. Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame 5. Jordan Tyson*, WR, Arizona State 6. Sonny Styles, LB, Ohio State 7. Jermod McCoy*, CB, Tennessee 8. Rueben Baine^, EDGE, Miami 9. Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State 10. Mansoor Delane, CB, LSU 11. Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana 12. Spencer Fano, OT, Utah 13. Makai Lemon, WR, USC 14. Dillon Thieneman, S, Oregon I also then have two 1st/2nd round borderline grades. They are: 15. Francis Mauigoa*, OT, Miami; and 16. Jake Golday, LB, Cincinnati Analysis of the top 100: Here is the positional breakdown of my top 100:- Quarterback: 3 Running Back: 6 Tight End: 6 Wide Receiver: 16 Offensive Tackle: 9 Interior Offensive Line: 7 Total offensive players: 47 Interior Defensive Line: 8 Edge Rusher: 17 Linebacker: 8 Corner: 12 Safety: 8 Total defensive players: 53 Strengths and Weaknesses of the top 100: The first thing to say is I don’t think it is a particularly strong top 100. My 100th ranked player is almost half a round later than last year and is a mid-4th round grade but the talent does thicken out in about that range – from maybe #75 onwards. In addition, while I don’t think this is a draft chock full of premium position difference makers I was surprised by how many receivers and edge guys still end up in my top 100 – those two positions still account for a third of this group. In terms of weaker positions – it’s no secret that Quarterback is weak. I only have three guys in my top 100 and only two graded in the first three rounds. It isn’t a stellar year for running backs either – I have six in the top 100 but only eight graded as fourth round or better. It’s a pretty uninspiring class there to me. I think Tight End and Interior Offensive Line are deep. Maybe that doesn’t quite show in the top 100 numbers, but at both spots I have a stack of guys just outside my top 100 at those positions. I like defensive tackle less. Last year was a really good DTackle class but this group after the first four on the board (and none of those are first round type talents) you get very quickly into rotational pieces who only play the run or only rush the passer. It’s the position I think this board has been guilty of overdrafting this year in the @Virgil mock drafts. I’m not sure you are gonna see these guys fly off boards in quite the way some expect. Finally just a reflection on the corner class because it’s a class with clusters and then cliffs to my mind. I have a gap after the top two guys to the Johnson, Terrell, Hood tier… then Brandon Cisse sort of on his own before the Scott, Ponds, Abney tier and then another steep drop to the Julian Neal, Devin Moore type tier and there are some guys after that I would like on day 3 but who feel rich for my blood on day 2. Positional Top 5s: (round I have them graded in parenthesis) Quarterback 1. Fernando Mendoza, Indiana (1st) 2. Ty Simpson, Alabama (2nd/3rd) 3. Cole Payton, North Dakota State (4th) 4. Drew Allar, Penn State (4th) 5. Carson Beck, Miami (4th) Running Back 1. Jeremiyah Love, Notre Dame (1st) 2. Jadarian Price, Notre Dame (3rd) 3. Mike Washington Jr., Arkansas (3rd) 4. Demond Claiborne, Wake Forest (4th) 5. Kaytron Allen, Penn State (4th) Wide Receiver 1. Jordyn Tyson*, Arizona State (1st) 2. Carnell Tate, Ohio State (1st) 3. Makai Lemon, USC (1st) 4. KC Concepcion, Texas A&M (2nd) 5. Omar Cooper Jr., Indiana (2nd) Tight End 1. Kenyon Sadiq, Oregon (2nd) 2. Eli Stower, Vanderbilt (2nd) 3. Justin Joly, North Carolina State (3rd) 4. Tanner Koziol, Houston (3rd) 5. Max Klare, Ohio State (3rd) Offensive Tackle 1. Spencer Fano, Utah (1st) 2. Francis Mauigoa*, Miami (2nd) 3. Caleb Lomu, Utah (2nd) 4. Monroe Freeling, Georgia (2nd) 5. Blake Miller, Clemson (2nd) Interior Offensive Line 1. Vega Ioane, Penn State (2nd) 2. Chase Bisontis, Texas A&M (2nd) 3. Gennings Dunker, Iowa (3rd) 4. Emmanuel Pregnon, Oregon (3rd) 5. Sam Hecht, Kansas State (3rd) Interior Defensive Line 1. Caleb Banks* , Florida (2nd) 2. Kayden McDonald, Ohio State (2nd) 3. Peter Woods, Clemson (2nd) 4. Christen Miller, Georgia (2nd) 5. Lee Hunter, Texas Tech (3rd) EDGE 1. Arvell Reese, Ohio State (1st) 2. David Bailey, Texas Tech (1st) 3. Rueben Bain Jr.^, Miami (1st) 4. Keldric Faulk, Auburn (2nd) 5. Gabe Jacas, Illinois (2nd) Linebacker 1. Sonny Styles, Ohio State (1st) 2. Jake Golday, Cincinnati (1st/2nd) 3. CJ Allen*, Georgia (2nd) 4. Jacob Rodriguez, Texas Tech (2nd) 5. Anthony Hill Jr., Texas (2nd) Cornerback 1. Jermod McCoy, Tennessee (1st) 2. Mansoor Delane, LSU (1st) 3. Chris Johnson, San Diego State (2nd) 4. Avieon Terrell*, Clemson (2nd) 5. Colton Hood, Tennessee (2nd) Safety 1. Caleb Downs, Ohio State (1st) 2. Dillon Thieneman, Oregon (1st) 3. Emmanuel McNeil-Warren (2nd) 4. AJ Haulcy, LSU (2nd/3rd) 5. Bud Clark, TCU (3rd) Final Thoughts Although this is not the strongest draft, I actually think the top 10 or so are probably more talented as a group than last year's top 10 or so. But I just think through the first two rounds the talent is thin. AJ Haulcy is my 50th grade and he is right on that 2nd round / 3rd round borderline for me. You don't have to be a mathematician to work out that is at least 14 players short of two full rounds of the draft. There will be good football players, there always is, but the team who will do best in this class in my opinion are the ones who give themselves the flexibility to make value fit need late on day 2 and into day 3. That is why a trade down is so appealing to the Bills. There are not going to be a ton of pro bowlers and all pros out of the later rounds of this class, but there will be some. So package your picks intelligently, trust your evaluations and go get your guy! I'll post my final mock (which I will score against) tomorrow and then as ever throughout the draft I'll be keeping the draft threads updated with my running top 10 available and each morning I'll be along to debrief on the night before. It's draft nerd Christmas Eve and I am so ready for it! Edited April 23 by GunnerBill 7 1 12 24 Quote
NewEra Posted April 22 Posted April 22 Someone has the same view of Jordyn Tyson as me! 😃 kids a stud 1 Quote
MikePJ76 Posted April 23 Posted April 23 Gabe jacas as your fifth edge is interesting. i wonder if he slips if the bills have interest since we hired his coach at Illinois to coach the defensive line. seems like a highly productive college captain . 1 Quote
Walking Tall Posted April 23 Posted April 23 We need to get rid of “1st round grades” Seriously, is #1 overall the same as #32 overall? Just start grading by the number of pick overall. Quote
BuffaloBillyG Posted April 23 Posted April 23 Excellent work and as always will be the thread I have open the first night to check things out. Always wondered, when you grade and rank these players, is it more straight up or is there a tilt to rank players that would fit the Bills schemes specifically a bit higher? Quote
LEBills Posted April 23 Posted April 23 4 hours ago, GunnerBill said: The Las Vegas Raiders are now on the clock! Well, not quite, but we are nearly there. Time for the talking to stop and the picking to begin. I have been doing these draft compendiums for about 8 years now and they are not only useful now but as a reference tool to compare back to in the future. The Bills only have one pick in the top 90 and it isn’t the strongest class… so for some the excitement doesn’t quite match other years… but the NFL Draft always throws up suspense and surprises. So here we go. Products already on the board: 2026 Draft Sleepers 2026 Mock Draft (final mock to be posted in the morning) Gunner & Gonzo Ep 1 - early thoughts on Bills needs and the class Gunner & Gonzo Ep 2 - post free agency Bills needs plus scenarios Gunner & Gonzo Ep 3 - full two round mock draft New content in this thread: Full list of my 14 first round grades Analysis of my Top 100 Positional Top 5s [Key: * denotes medical concern; ^ denotes potential off-field / behavioural concern] First Round Grades: 1. Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State 2. Arvell Reese, EDGE, Ohio State 3. David Bailey, EDGE, Texas Tech 4. Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame 5. Jordan Tyson*, WR, Arizona State 6. Sonny Styles, LB, Ohio State 7. Jermod McCoy*, CB, Tennessee 8. Rueben Baine^, EDGE, Miami 9. Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State 10. Mansoor Delane, CB, LSU 11. Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana 12. Spencer Fano, OT, Utah 13. Makai Lemon, WR, USC 14. Dillon Thieneman, S, Oregon I also then have two 1st/2nd round borderline grades. They are: 15. Francis Mauigoa*, OT, Miami; and 16. Jake Golday, LB, Cincinnati Analysis of the top 100: Here is the positional breakdown of my top 100:- Quarterback: 3 Running Back: 6 Tight End: 6 Wide Receiver: 16 Offensive Tackle: 9 Interior Offensive Line: 7 Total offensive players: 47 Interior Defensive Line: 8 Edge Rusher: 17 Linebacker: 8 Corner: 12 Safety: 8 Total defensive players: 53 Strengths and Weaknesses of the top 100: The first thing to say is I don’t think it is a particularly strong top 100. My 100th ranked player is almost half a round later than last year and is a mid-4th round grade but the talent does thicken out in about that range – from maybe #75 onwards. In addition, while I don’t think this is a draft chock full of premium position difference makers I was surprised by how many receivers and edge guys still end up in my top 100 – those two positions still account for a third of this group. In terms of weaker positions – it’s no secret that Quarterback is weak. I only have three guys in my top 100 and only two graded in the first three rounds. It isn’t a stellar year for running backs either – I have six in the top 100 but only eight graded as fourth round or better. It’s a pretty uninspiring class there to me. I think Tight End and Interior Offensive Line are deep. Maybe that doesn’t quite show in the top 100 numbers, but at both spots I have a stack of guys just outside my top 100 at those positions. I like defensive tackle less. Last year was a really good DTackle class but this group after the first four on the board (and none of those are first round type talents) you get very quickly into rotational pieces who only play the run or only rush the passer. It’s the position I think this board has been guilty of overdrafting this year in the @Virgil mock drafts. I’m not sure you are gonna see these guys fly off boards in quite the way some expect. Finally just a reflection on the corner class because it’s a class with clusters and then cliffs to my mind. I have a gap after the top two guys to the Johnson, Terrell, Hood tier… then Brandon Cisse sort of on his own before the Scott, Ponds, Abney tier and then another steep drop to the Julian Neal, Devin Moore type tier and there are some guys after that I would like on day 3 but who feel rich for my blood on day 2. Positional Top 5s: (round I have them graded in parenthesis) Quarterback 1. Fernando Mendoza, Indiana (1st) 2. Ty Simpson, Alabama (2nd/3rd) 3. Cole Payton, North Dakota State (4th) 4. Drew Allar, Penn State (4th) 5. Carson Beck, Miami (4th) Running Back 1. Jeremiyah Love, Notre Dame (1st) 2. Jadarian Price, Notre Dame (3rd) 3. Mike Washington Jr., Arkansas (3rd) 4. Demond Claiborne, Wake Forest (4th) 5. Kaytron Allen, Penn State (4th) Wide Receiver 1. Jordyn Tyson*, Arizona State (1st) 2. Carnell Tate, Ohio State (1st) 3. Makai Lemon, USC (1st) 4. KC Concepcion, Texas A&M (2nd) 5. Omar Cooper Jr., Indiana (2nd) Tight End 1. Kenyon Sadiq, Oregon (2nd) 2. Eli Stower, Vanderbilt (2nd) 3. Justin Joly, North Carolina State (3rd) 4. Tanner Koziol, Houston (3rd) 5. Max Klare, Ohio State (3rd) Offensive Tackle 1. Spencer Fano, Utah (1st) 2. Francis Mauigoa*, Miami (2nd) 3. Caleb Lomu, Utah (2nd) 4. Monroe Freeling, Georgia (2nd) 5. Blake Miller, Clemson (2nd) Interior Offensive Line 1. Vega Ioane, Penn State (2nd) 2. Chase Bisontis, Texas A&M (2nd) 3. Gennings Dunker, Iowa (3rd) 4. Emmanuel Pregnon, Oregon (3rd) 5. Sam Hecht, Kansas State (3rd) Interior Defensive Line 1. Caleb Banks* , Florida (2nd) 2. Kayden McDonald, Ohio State (2nd) 3. Peter Woods, Clemson (2nd) 4. Christen Miller, Georgia (2nd) 5. Lee Hunter, Texas Tech (3rd) EDGE 1. Arvell Reese, Ohio State (1st) 2. David Bailey, Texas Tech (1st) 3. Rueben Bain Jr.^, Miami (1st) 4. Keldric Faulk, Auburn (2nd) 5. Gabe Jacas, Illinois (2nd) Linebacker 1. Sonny Styles, Ohio State (1st) 2. Jake Golday, Cincinnati (1st/2nd) 3. CJ Allen*, Georgia (2nd) 4. Jacob Rodriguez, Texas Tech (2nd) 5. Anthony Hill Jr., Texas (2nd) Cornerback 1. Jermod McCoy, Tennessee (1st) 2. Mansoor Delane, LSU (1st) 3. Chris Johnson, San Diego State (2nd) 4. Avieon Terrell, Clemson (2nd) 5. Colton Hood, Tennessee (2nd) Safety 1. Caleb Downs, Ohio State (1st) 2. Dillon Thieneman, Oregon (1st) 3. Emmanuel McNeil-Warren (2nd) 4. AJ Haulcy, LSU (2nd/3rd) 5. Bud Clark, TCU (3rd) Final Thoughts Although this is not the strongest draft, I actually think the top 10 or so are probably more talented as a group than last year's top 10 or so. But I just think through the first two rounds the talent is thin. AJ Haulcy is my 50th grade and he is right on that 2nd round / 3rd round borderline for me. You don't have to be a mathematician to work out that is at least 14 players short of two full rounds of the draft. There will be good football players, there always is, but the team who will do best in this class in my opinion are the ones who give themselves the flexibility to make value fit need late on day 2 and into day 3. That is why a trade down is so appealing to the Bills. There are not going to be a ton of pro bowlers and all pros out of the later rounds of this class, but there will be some. So package your picks intelligently, trust your evaluations and go get your guy! I'll post my final mock (which I will score against) tomorrow and then as ever throughout the draft I'll be keeping the draft threads updated with my running top 10 available and each morning I'll be along to debrief on the night before. It's draft nerd Christmas Eve and I am so ready for it! The ones that are most interesting to me of your rankings: Eli Stowers - I’m surprised you have a 2nd round grade on him. Certainly an elite athlete, but his blocking is so poor it’s going to cap his snaps. And despite his testing he doesn’t run away from defenders like you would expect. He may be a guy that has to live as a power slot and he may still be a worse blocker than some of the premiere players in the league at that position. Caleb Banks - I get that the upside is tantalizing. He is huge and explosive and the pass rush ability is great. But his run defense is just poor. The way I think of DT is you don’t have to be great at run D if you are a good pass rusher, but you have to be average if you are going to be a top player. Jake Golday - I know you have been a big supporter since early on. With the way he was deployed at Cincinnati, he reminds me of NC State Payton Wilson with how they had him covering slot players. He certainly has a lot of positive traits but is a bit raw so a first/second round grade feels a bit rich. I would probably rank him 5th on your list, but LB is such a scheme dependent position I could see him slotting ahead of any of those players too when their careers are over. Quote
Royale with Cheese Posted April 23 Posted April 23 I feel like we’re going to see a front 7 heavy draft. At least two corners because we have zero depth. Quote
Sierra Foothills Posted April 23 Posted April 23 @GunnerBill, I'm humbled by your presence (and presents) here. Thanks for all the great work that you share with us. Looking forward to the live thread tomorrow with you and the others. I hope tomorrow brings you great joy... Cheers!!! 🍻 Quote
GunnerBill Posted April 23 Author Posted April 23 1 hour ago, LEBills said: The ones that are most interesting to me of your rankings: Eli Stowers - I’m surprised you have a 2nd round grade on him. Certainly an elite athlete, but his blocking is so poor it’s going to cap his snaps. And despite his testing he doesn’t run away from defenders like you would expect. He may be a guy that has to live as a power slot and he may still be a worse blocker than some of the premiere players in the league at that position. Caleb Banks - I get that the upside is tantalizing. He is huge and explosive and the pass rush ability is great. But his run defense is just poor. The way I think of DT is you don’t have to be great at run D if you are a good pass rusher, but you have to be average if you are going to be a top player. Jake Golday - I know you have been a big supporter since early on. With the way he was deployed at Cincinnati, he reminds me of NC State Payton Wilson with how they had him covering slot players. He certainly has a lot of positive traits but is a bit raw so a first/second round grade feels a bit rich. I would probably rank him 5th on your list, but LB is such a scheme dependent position I could see him slotting ahead of any of those players too when their careers are over. Yea I don't think I see Stowers that different than you. He is a late 2nd for me and he is definitely a wide variance player. He does have a bit of Keon Coleman about him in that I think he is most effective after the catch when he is surprisingly elusive for a guy his size - but like Keon I think he plays to contact instead of playing to space at the top of his route. But he has been really productive in the SEC, he has long arms, is a fluid mover and as a big slot he has a high ceiling for me. When there was a "some teams think he can be a true outside receiver" story a couple of weeks I pushed back strongly on that. He can't. For the same reasons Keon can't. On Caleb Banks - I'd characterise his run defense as inconsistent. There are definitely moments where he is high, doesn't control his pad level and he has some refinements to make to his tackling technique. But I am betting a bit on the traits. You don't get guys that size, with those levers, those big aggressive hands and that level of explosion. Anyone who thinks Anthony Hill is better than Jake Golday should be tried for treason and thrown in the Tower of London😆. I honestly don't see anything on film that Hill does better. Golday is the most underrated player in this class. 1 Quote
LEBills Posted April 23 Posted April 23 (edited) 5 hours ago, GunnerBill said: Yea I don't think I see Stowers that different than you. He is a late 2nd for me and he is definitely a wide variance player. He does have a bit of Keon Coleman about him in that I think he is most effective after the catch when he is surprisingly elusive for a guy his size - but like Keon I think he plays to contact instead of playing to space at the top of his route. But he has been really productive in the SEC, he has long arms, is a fluid mover and as a big slot he has a high ceiling for me. When there was a "some teams think he can be a true outside receiver" story a couple of weeks I pushed back strongly on that. He can't. For the same reasons Keon can't. On Caleb Banks - I'd characterise his run defense as inconsistent. There are definitely moments where he is high, doesn't control his pad level and he has some refinements to make to his tackling technique. But I am betting a bit on the traits. You don't get guys that size, with those levers, those big aggressive hands and that level of explosion. Anyone who thinks Anthony Hill is better than Jake Golday should be tried for treason and thrown in the Tower of London😆. I honestly don't see anything on film that Hill does better. Golday is the most underrated player in this class. I’ve been to the Tower of London and I don’t think the Yeomen Warders could keep a draft lunatic contained. The one I met made noise when they breathed. This is what is wonderful about draft season though, everyone has a shot to be right or wrong. Who would you most like to see the Bills draft, if you took American voice acting lessons from Hugh Laurie, drugged Beane, threw him to the Tower of London, created a facial prosthetic, kissed Mrs Beane goodbye and led the Bills draft until the authorities arrived? Edited April 23 by LEBills 3 Quote
NeverOutNick Posted April 23 Posted April 23 Great job @GunnerBill! Off of your projections if Allar did fall to the 4th/5th range, he’s the one QB I’d be happy to have backup and learn from Josh. Probably wouldn’t take him until round 5 though Quote
GunnerBill Posted April 23 Author Posted April 23 2 hours ago, LEBills said: I’ve been to the Tower of London and I don’t think the Yeomen Warders could keep a draft lunatic contained. The one I met made noise when they breathed. This is what is wonderful about draft season though, everyone has a shot to be right or wrong. Who would you most like to see the Bills draft, if you took American voice acting lessons from Hugh Laurie, drugged Beane, threw him to the Tower of London, created a facial prosthetic, kissed Mrs Beane goodbye and led the Bills draft until the authorities arrived? They'd be able to contain Anthony Hill though.... even if they left his cell door wide open, given his propensity to hit the wrong gap Honestly I don't have anyone this year I feel that strongly about for the Bills. I think in terms of the closest I came to a draft crush it is probably Omar Cooper, I just love his film. So if the Bills were going to draft someone that made me feel warm and fuzzy, it's probably him.... but I wouldn't be totally sold on his fit / usage here until I see it. Quote
BuffaloBillies Posted April 23 Posted April 23 Steelers have 12 picks (21, 53, 76, 85, 99, 121, 135, 161, 216, 224, 230, 237) Bills have 7 picks (26, 91, 126, 165, 168, 182, 220) Explore a trade with Pitt... (trade value chart) Steelers get: 26 (700), 182 (18) Bills get: 53 (370), 76 (210), 99 (104), 161 (27) Math mostly checks out (718 to 711). New picks... Steelers have 10 picks (21, 26, 85, 121, 135, 182, 216, 224, 230, 237) Bills have 9 picks (53, 76, 91, 99, 126, 161, 165, 168, 220) Would be rough waiting to 53 to make a pick, but having 4 picks in top 100 is attractive. Especially if no 1st round grade available at 26 and maybe Pitt feels they love a guy there. 2 1 Quote
buffaloboyinATL Posted April 23 Posted April 23 13 minutes ago, BuffaloBillies said: Steelers have 12 picks (21, 53, 76, 85, 99, 121, 135, 161, 216, 224, 230, 237) Bills have 7 picks (26, 91, 126, 165, 168, 182, 220) Explore a trade with Pitt... (trade value chart) Steelers get: 26 (700), 182 (18) Bills get: 53 (370), 76 (210), 99 (104), 161 (27) Math mostly checks out (718 to 711). New picks... Steelers have 10 picks (21, 26, 85, 121, 135, 182, 216, 224, 230, 237) Bills have 9 picks (53, 76, 91, 99, 126, 161, 165, 168, 220) Would be rough waiting to 53 to make a pick, but having 4 picks in top 100 is attractive. Especially if no 1st round grade available at 26 and maybe Pitt feels they love a guy there. I would love to add some picks, but damn, waiting until pick number 53 would be brutal. That said, this scenario is definitely plausible. I could easily see the Steelers wanting a second 1st round pick in their home town draft. 1 Quote
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