Draft capital spent on offense since 2020. Bills 32

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Another dumb chart from Sharp. Teams with more draft capital spend more feat capital on offense (and defense). In other news, water is wet. A chart showing % of draft capital would be way more interesting. 
 

 

Yea this actually shows nothing other than who drafts at the bottom of the draft every year. It's a nonsensical chart.

 

EDIT: I've done some rudimentary maths. I've gone from 2021 and only included actual draft capital spent (so not including for example a 3rd rounder traded away for Amari Cooper or Rasul Douglas). 

 

By pick value according to the Jimmy Johnson chart the Bills have spent 59% of their draft capital on defense and 41% on offense. What is important to note though is how heavily round one influences that because of the chart values. They have spent exactly 60% of their first round points value on defense, 40% on offense. So there is actually a very slight bias towards offense from round two onwards. 

Edited Wednesday at 11:11 AM by GunnerBill

[HardyBoy]

5 hours ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

I know the OP didn’t mean it, but this chart is just another indictment of McDermott’s defense. 
oh and it’s meaningless since it excludes the trade for Diggs who was a top 5 WR when he was a Bill. 

 

No, it literally doesn't show that, or at least you have literally no basis to make that determination based on the data shown in the chart.

 

It's completely and totally possible that the bills have spent more draft capital on offensive players...this just tells you that good teams have less draft capital because they pick later in drafts.

[Magox]

You guys are reading the chart wrong.

 

Look at the teams that have invested the most and the teams that have invested the least.

 

This is more a QB/OC chart more than anything.   What matters most is who you have at the helm on offense.

 

You can continue to keep adding sprinkles but if you put sprinkles on ***** it’s still a ***** sprinkle.

Edited Wednesday at 12:26 PM by Magox

[Kirby Jackson]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea this actually shows nothing other than who drafts at the bottom of the draft every year. It's a nonsensical chart.

 

EDIT: I've done some rudimentary maths. I've gone from 2021 and only included actual draft capital spent (so not including for example a 3rd rounder traded away for Amari Cooper or Rasul Douglas). 

 

By pick value according to the Jimmy Johnson chart the Bills have spent 59% of their draft capital on defense and 41% on offense. What is important to note though is how heavily round one influences that because of the chart values. They have spent exactly 60% of their first round points value on defense, 40% on offense. So there is actually a very slight bias towards offense from round two onwards. 

I wonder how that compares to the rest of the league? 
 

note: I am not asking or suggesting you to look into it. I’m just curious.

Edited Wednesday at 12:33 PM by Kirby Jackson

[BillsVet]

The chart lacks relevant and essential data to make the conclusion it draws. 

 

As @GunnerBill noted, teams with more high picks will naturally have more draft capital.  Which means % of capital used on one side or the other is a more relevant metric to measure.  

 

I also found since 2020 Buffalo has followed a 3:2 ratio of defense to offense for draft capital use.  This was their philosophy under McBeane...but we'll see how it works under Beane/Brady. 

[Bill from NYC]

9 hours ago, Virgil said:

Look at this draft.   They could go all defense and wouldn’t be wrong to do so.  
 

Sorry but I vehemently disagree. Josh Allen is our QB. The Bills need weapons and protection more than they need defense in a now offense based league. 

 

Look at McDermott's final draft for the Bills. It is probably one of the main reasons he was thankfully fired. 

 

https://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/teams/bills

 

 

[Magox]

Look, I get it—everyone keeps saying "this lacks context" every time a new chart pops up. But honestly, you can say that about literally any single data point in a vacuum.

The reality is that when you stop looking at them individually and start connecting the dots, the picture is pretty damn clear. Data point after data point shows the same thing: the preponderance of evidence confirms the winning formula over the last 5-10 years.

If you have a franchise QB, a solid coaching staff, and a roster where you've prioritized quality defensive pieces to complement the offense (outside of the QB), you win. That’s been the blueprint for Super Bowl teams for a decade now. It’s not just one chart; it’s the entire trend.

[Kirby Jackson]

1 minute ago, Magox said:

Look, I get it—everyone keeps saying "this lacks context" every time a new chart pops up. But honestly, you can say that about literally any single data point in a vacuum.

The reality is that when you stop looking at them individually and start connecting the dots, the picture is pretty damn clear. Data point after data point shows the same thing: the preponderance of evidence confirms the winning formula over the last 5-10 years.

If you have a franchise QB, a solid coaching staff, and a roster where you've prioritized quality defensive pieces to complement the offense (outside of the QB), you win. That’s been the blueprint for Super Bowl teams for a decade now. It’s not just one chart; it’s the entire trend.

Not really though in this chart. Draft value points go in descending order from the first pick in the draft to the last pick. The below article uses one of the draft value charts out there to analyze draft values. The Jets in this model have the most draft value points at 1,381.92 and the Broncos the least at 136.02. If the Jets used 150 points on offense (so 10.9% of their assets) and the Broncos used 136.02 points on offense (100% of their assets) this chart would say that the Jets committed more to offense.  No they didn’t, they just had more to commit. Unless the chart is done by percentage of teams points and not total points, it doesn’t say anything. https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2026-nfl-draft-ranking-teams-by-picks-value/

[Magox]

1 minute ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Not really though in this chart. Draft value points go in descending order from the first pick in the draft to the last pick. The below article uses one of the draft value charts out there to analyze draft values. The Jets in this model have the most draft value points at 1,381.92 and the Broncos the least at 136.02. If the Jets used 150 points on offense (so 10.9% of their assets) and the Broncos used 136.02 points on offense (100% of their assets) this chart would say that the Jets committed more to offense.  No they didn’t, they just had more to commit. Unless the chart is done by percentage of teams points and not total points, it doesn’t say anything. https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2026-nfl-draft-ranking-teams-by-picks-value/

 

Kirby you can nitpick one example, there will always be anecdotes in every single data point to make an opposing case.  Franchise QB, Good coaching staff and good defensive talent wins championships.

[Kirby Jackson]

13 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

Kirby you can nitpick one example, there will always be anecdotes in every single data point to make an opposing case.  Franchise QB, Good coaching staff and good defensive talent wins championships.

It’s not one example though. This chart literally shows the teams that had the most draft value points to commit. If it was done by percentages it would show how much they commit to offense vs. defense. If you flipped this chart to defense from offense it would look similar. That’s the point. Those same teams would rank highly in defensive investment according to Sharp’s chart because they had more to invest. The team at the top of the chart have all been bad for the most part since 2020. The teams on the right have been good. 
 

No one is arguing what wins championships. We are talking about what this chart says. It says nothing. It says that bad teams have more draft capital. Well no $**t Warren!! That’s why it’s getting crushed on here. Sharp has a history of releasing garbage like this and trying to pass it off as telling a story. It tells nothing. 

Edited Wednesday at 01:28 PM by Kirby Jackson

[HardyBoy]

8 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

Kirby you can nitpick one example, there will always be anecdotes in every single data point to make an opposing case.  Franchise QB, Good coaching staff and good defensive talent wins championships.

 

No, just no...this is a logical issue with the chart...this isn't an anecdotes thing or how the same data can be used to show two different things.

 

If you gave a bunch of people bread of different sized slices, jelly, and butter and told them they had to put either jelly or butter on slices of bread...and then said Jimmy put butter on 20lbs of bread, and Johnny put 5lbs of butter on bread...therefore Jimmy values butter way more...except turns out Jimmy was given 100lbs of bread and so he actually put jelly on 80lbs while Johnny was given 8lbs of bread and used butter on 5 out of 8 lbs.

 

Yes, that is an absolutely ridiculous example, but your argument...uhhh actually, I spent a year in therapy recently and one of the things I worked on was not feeling the need to explain basic things to people because the majority of the time it's not that they don't understand, it's that they don't want to listen/aren't acting fully in good faith and they want my energy. Not saying you're doing that, but a lot of people who are saying this chart is completely meaningless are also the same people who say the bills aren't spending enough resources on offense...the chart being total and utter garbage logically doesn't make that other thing true or untrue.

[Ballhawk]

This chart is interesting but not really that earth shattering:

1) Teams with franchise QB's don't need to draft a QB and hence already that is one key offensive position less in the drafting equation.

2) This chart has to be overlayed with free agent money spent as these two work in tandem. 

The chart just reminds me it is hard to be good over a prolonged period of time. Feels like in the next 2-3 years the Bills will have to mortgage the future to go all in to change this trend and try to win it all.  

Edited Wednesday at 01:36 PM by Ballhawk

[Slippery Rubber Mats]

We've had a top 10 offense every year since. Seems like we're on the right track then, thanks for posting!

[Magox]

41 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

It’s not one example though. This chart literally shows the teams that had the most draft value points to commit. If it was done by percentages it would show how much they commit to offense vs. defense. If you flipped this chart to defense from offense it would look similar. That’s the point. Those same teams would rank highly in defensive investment according to Sharp’s chart because they had more to invest. The team at the top of the chart have all been bad for the most part since 2020. The teams on the right have been good. 
 

No one is arguing what wins championships. We are talking about what this chart says. It says nothing. It says that bad teams have more draft capital. Well no $**t Warren!! That’s why it’s getting crushed on here. Sharp has a history of releasing garbage like this and trying to pass it off as telling a story. It tells nothing. 

 

I think the mistake people make is assuming that the teams on the left of this particular metric utilize their draft capital equally on both sides of the ball. If you look at the data, that just isn't true.

 

Sharp’s 'Total Draft Value' is a hybrid of Chase Stuart’s AV Model (historical performance by slot) and the Fitzgerald-Spielberger Model (economic surplus value). When you look at the teams leading that metric on defense since 2020, looking at the teams at the top of this defensive capital list, it’s hard not to notice that many of them are the same ones consistently winning at a high level:

 

1.Green Bay, 2. Philadelphia, 3. Detroit, 4. Houston, 5. NY Jets, 6. Dallas, 7. Arizona, 8. Jacksonville, 9. Minnesota, 10. Seattle.

 

Seattle & Philly: These teams are the model teams, Seattle used high capital on guys like Witherspoon 1st round, Byron Murphy 1st round, Nick Emmanwori 2nd round, Boye Mafi 2nd round to build the 2025 No. 1 DVOA defense and win a Super Bowl. Philly drafted guys like Jalen Carter, Jordan Davis, Quinyon Mitchell, Nolan Smith all 1st rounders not to mention Cooper Dejean in the 2nd to ensure they have a Top-5 defensive front every single year. That isn't luck; it's lopsided capital allocation along with elite scouting departments.

 

Houston & Minnesota:  Houston spent a a lot in draft capital to get Will Anderson Jr., and it resulted in the best playoff defensive EPA of the last decade. Minnesota was a bottom-feeder that used 1st-round capital to climb to 3rd in DVOA by 2025 and 2nd in DVOA in 2024.

 

The 'other side of the chart' doesn't look like this because these teams have made a conscious choice to prioritize defensive capital over offensive volume. You can't argue with the results—three of these four teams have been in the Super Bowl or the #1 seed conversation recently because of that lopsided spending and great scouting. The logic that 'all teams are on the left' just doesn't hold up against the actual ROI we're seeing on the field.

Edited Wednesday at 02:06 PM by Magox

[Virgil]

1 hour ago, Bill from NYC said:

Sorry but I vehemently disagree. Josh Allen is our QB. The Bills need weapons and protection more than they need defense in a now offense based league. 

 

Look at McDermott's final draft for the Bills. It is probably one of the main reasons he was thankfully fired. 

 

https://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/teams/bills

 

 

I’m not saying I agree that we should be last.   Our inability to build around Josh has been painful at times.  I’m just saying that years like this affect the curve in a way that I could support though.  
 

Again, I won’t be surprised if we draft a G and WR in this draft, but I’d be surprised if it’s in the top 3 rounds. 

[Augie]

12 hours ago, Sierra Foothills said:

This is revealing but again, I'm annoyed at Warren.

 

He doesn't state what the unit of measure is on the Y axis.

 

This graph shows that the Bills have spent about 125 points of "total draft capital" but according to the Rich Hill Value Chart, the 33 pick is worth 180 points. The Bills selected Keon Coleman with the 33rd pick in 2024.

 

So what the hell points system is he using and why doesn't he state which system he's using?
 

It's like statistics for morons which is fitting, considering the status quo of the times.

 

 

Did Diggs count as a first rounder? I’m not sure if this is anything more than a pretty picture with all the teams lined up in random order. 

[Magox]

12 hours ago, Sierra Foothills said:

This is revealing but again, I'm annoyed at Warren.

 

He doesn't state what the unit of measure is on the Y axis.

 

This graph shows that the Bills have spent about 125 points of "total draft capital" but according to the Rich Hill Value Chart, the 33 pick is worth 180 points. The Bills selected Keon Coleman with the 33rd pick in 2024.

 

So what the hell points system is he using and why doesn't he state which system he's using?
 

It's like statistics for morons which is fitting, considering the status quo of the times.

 

He doesn't source it on the post.

Sharp’s 'Total Draft Value' is a hybrid of Chase Stuart’s AV Model (historical performance by slot) and the Fitzgerald-Spielberger Model (economic surplus value).

 

 

2026 NFL Draft Capital Rankings: All 32 Teams -

https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/nfl-draft-capital-value-picks/

[Sierra Foothills]

26 minutes ago, Magox said:

He doesn't source it on the post.

Sharp’s 'Total Draft Value' is a hybrid of Chase Stuart’s AV Model (historical performance by slot) and the Fitzgerald-Spielberger Model (economic surplus value).

 

 

2026 NFL Draft Capital Rankings: All 32 Teams -

https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/nfl-draft-capital-value-picks/

 

Thank you @Magox.

 

"How Sharp Football Total Draft Value is Calculated

The draft value metric is a valuation on draft capital based on a combination of average performance delivered and average dollars earned on second contracts.

This is based on two public models:

AV model created by Chase Stuart: Performance delivered based on the draft slot

OTC model created by Brad Spielberger and Jason Fitzgerald: Contractual earnings for non-rookie deals based on draft slot

When used together, our Sharp Football Total Draft Value metric gives a good picture of the average rookie contract value of each pick along with the longer-term value of the players selected at each pick."

 

Because he didn't reference this in his original tweet, apparently we're all supposed to know and accept the greatness of the methodology and the scoring system he named after himself.

 

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

I'm a little surprised we've spent less than even the Rams, considering their "F them picks" approach to team-building. They've only had 1 first round pick since 2020 (and they spent that on DEF). 

 

 

[Don Otreply]

I’m likely gonna be wrong here, but it’s more situational from draft to draft, but the selection of the rounds one,  two, and three picks, by my ever so accurate memory lol, reflect an over all bias towards the defense during the McDermott era, and what appeared to be an inability or lack of desire ( for lack of a better word) to scout and then select above average talent at WR / offensive weapons over his time here, it was nearly a phobia, during his tenure…, this methodology left literally no choice but to go the most expensive route to get WRs in free agency, which didn’t help our cap situation,  but the past is the past, we will all have to wait and see how this all plays out, according to all myth and present rumor we “need” to lean towards defense yet again, sigh…, lol.  It was I think a three year period when we had a good group of WRs  Diggs Brown Beadsly and Davis, out of the nine years of Sean was running the show, I long for a group that good again.