Not High Enough? Bills Potential NFL Draft Issue

[corta765]

Peter Schrager released his NFL mock today and he is considered one of the best in the business. I read enough mock drafts you start to get an idea of player ranges and who will probably be available when the Bills pick. The one thing that you cannot predict is when a run happens on a position which typically is QB or a skill position like WR/CB. QB happens more regularly though and this year there is not another true 1st round quality pick then Mendoza. That doesn't mean a guy like Ty Simpson may not be drafted late, but most drafts just have Mendoza. Anyway, the issue the Bills are really starting to have in most mocks is the better DE's are already gone as are the top WRs. If the Bills want a true impact starter their only way would be moving up which means less draft capital this year or next (or both yikes). Conversely LB/ or the remaining DEs which they need have more 2nd/3rd round level draft status where using your 1st is probably an overreach. Many players certainly start drafted after round 1, but the percentage is far lower and many times they start as rotational pieces vs actually being ready to go. Even Milano in his first year took a while to find his way on the field despite showing major flashes. I would be a bit surprised if Leonard doens't go with a more experienced starting LB corp unless they really do draft a ready to go LB/Rusher which don't exactly exist in spades as the draft goes on lol.

 

The Bills very likely may be stuck with a lack of great options with the 1 while having to find a decent dance partner to move back and acquire additional picks. To me if the board shakes where the top 5-6 WR/DEs go before you can get close you move back and try to add another 2nd and/or 3rd/4th. I'd truly love to see them draft a WR with a 1st round pick, but teams like MIA/NYJ/CLE all have two picks in the 1st round where they can take a WR early or late and that is not factoring in the Giants who have been rumored to go at a running mate for Nabers or the Rams who keep getting mocked a WR too. In a draft where Beane reallllyyy needs some hits to help shore up the future core of the team he has his work cutout for him.

[dave mcbride]

11 minutes ago, corta765 said:

Peter Schrager released his NFL mock today and he is considered one of the best in the business. I read enough mock drafts you start to get an idea of player ranges and who will probably be available when the Bills pick. The one thing that you cannot predict is when a run happens on a position which typically is QB or a skill position like WR/CB. QB happens more regularly though and this year there is not another true 1st round quality pick then Mendoza. That doesn't mean a guy like Ty Simpson may not be drafted late, but most drafts just have Mendoza. Anyway, the issue the Bills are really starting to have in most mocks is the better DE's are already gone as are the top WRs. If the Bills want a true impact starter their only way would be moving up which means less draft capital this year or next (or both yikes). Conversely LB/ or the remaining DEs which they need have more 2nd/3rd round level draft status where using your 1st is probably an overreach. Many players certainly start drafted after round 1, but the percentage is far lower and many times they start as rotational pieces vs actually being ready to go. Even Milano in his first year took a while to find his way on the field despite showing major flashes. I would be a bit surprised if Leonard doens't go with a more experienced starting LB corp unless they really do draft a ready to go LB/Rusher which don't exactly exist in spades as the draft goes on lol.

 

The Bills very likely may be stuck with a lack of great options with the 1 while having to find a decent dance partner to move back and acquire additional picks. To me if the board shakes where the top 5-6 WR/DEs go before you can get close you move back and try to add another 2nd and/or 3rd/4th. I'd truly love to see them draft a WR with a 1st round pick, but teams like MIA/NYJ/CLE all have two picks in the 1st round where they can take a WR early or late and that is not factoring in the Giants who have been rumored to go at a running mate for Nabers or the Rams who keep getting mocked a WR too. In a draft where Beane reallllyyy needs some hits to help shore up the future core of the team he has his work cutout for him.

I don't have expectations from this draft in terms of a sure-fire impact player. I'm just chalking it up to "one of those years" -- not a ton of draft capital and a lousy draft to boot -- and am focusing more on the higher-quality FA side (Chubb and Moore, although I realize Moore is effectively our late 2nd round pick).  With regard to the draft itself, there always seems to be a guy who for whatever reason is regarded as a great pickup in round 4 or 5 (e.g., Deone Walker, Shakir, whom the Bills traded up for) and the Bills have the clustered draft capital (picks 165, 168, and 182) in that area to move around a bit to get that guy if he's there. Beyond that, I don't expect much of interest to happen. 

Edited Tuesday at 03:10 PM by dave mcbride

[gonzo1105]

14 minutes ago, corta765 said:

Peter Schrager released his NFL mock today and he is considered one of the best in the business. I read enough mock drafts you start to get an idea of player ranges and who will probably be available when the Bills pick. The one thing that you cannot predict is when a run happens on a position which typically is QB or a skill position like WR/CB. QB happens more regularly though and this year there is not another true 1st round quality pick then Mendoza. That doesn't mean a guy like Ty Simpson may not be drafted late, but most drafts just have Mendoza. Anyway, the issue the Bills are really starting to have in most mocks is the better DE's are already gone as are the top WRs. If the Bills want a true impact starter their only way would be moving up which means less draft capital this year or next (or both yikes). Conversely LB/ or the remaining DEs which they need have more 2nd/3rd round level draft status where using your 1st is probably an overreach. Many players certainly start drafted after round 1, but the percentage is far lower and many times they start as rotational pieces vs actually being ready to go. Even Milano in his first year took a while to find his way on the field despite showing major flashes. I would be a bit surprised if Leonard doens't go with a more experienced starting LB corp unless they really do draft a ready to go LB/Rusher which don't exactly exist in spades as the draft goes on lol.

 

The Bills very likely may be stuck with a lack of great options with the 1 while having to find a decent dance partner to move back and acquire additional picks. To me if the board shakes where the top 5-6 WR/DEs go before you can get close you move back and try to add another 2nd and/or 3rd/4th. I'd truly love to see them draft a WR with a 1st round pick, but teams like MIA/NYJ/CLE all have two picks in the 1st round where they can take a WR early or late and that is not factoring in the Giants who have been rumored to go at a running mate for Nabers or the Rams who keep getting mocked a WR too. In a draft where Beane reallllyyy needs some hits to help shore up the future core of the team he has his work cutout for him.

I just looked at his mock. It just seems he’s trying to be different for different sake. I mean there is always a guy that sneaks into round 1 for sure but he’s kind of all over the place different 

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

As someone who's done multiple mock draft sims as the Bills,  it is a very awkward position. I've tried taking Concepcion, Cooper, McDaniel et al at 26 and find it hard to fill any other needs. I've traded down and found I'm overdrafting guys. My best result has been trading down with the Eagles (they offered) and got 54, 68 back and still had the other picks. Ended up with Gabe Jacas and Ted Hurst and then some secondary,OL and DL help. It's tough this year.

Edited Wednesday at 03:36 PM by D. L. Hot-Flamethrower

[corta765]

8 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

I just looked at his mock. It just seems he’s trying to be different for different sake. I mean there is always a guy that sneaks into round 1 for sure but he’s kind of all over the place different 

The WR DE LB pieces though are close to what I have seen with others and that is what concerns me. If the draft falls relatively similar to all of those the Bills are basically boxed out of a potential starter they need and your moving back hoping to find a less sure thing although with more draft capital.

[BuffaloBillyG]

8 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

I just looked at his mock. It just seems he’s trying to be different for different sake. I mean there is always a guy that sneaks into round 1 for sure but he’s kind of all over the place different 

Very true. 

 

However this year it feels like there will be several sneak in to round 1 that the "experts" don't project. With how closely graded guys in this draft are from spots, say, 15-45, there will be a lot of teams (especially on the back end of the round) grabbing guys they have rated higher specifically for their system or needs. 

[corta765]

5 minutes ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

As womeone who's done multiple mock draft sims as the Bills,  it is a very awkward position. I've tried taking Concepcion, Cooper, McDaniel et al at 26 and find it hard to fill any other needs. I've traded down and found I'm overdrafting guys. My best result has been trading down with the Eagles (they offered) and got 54, 68 back and still had the other picks. Ended up with Gabe Jacas and Ted Hurst and then some secondary,OL and DL help. It's tough this year.

Done the same and same weird result. I have honestly thought trade up round 1, trade back into round 2, take two true starters with those picks if you can, and maybe you get 3 other picks. Call it a day and hope you are right because if so it helps big time. Otherwise it all feels like a much larger roll of the dice then in other years.

1 minute ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Very true. 

 

However this year it feels like there will be several sneak in to round 1 that the "experts" don't project. With how closely graded guys in this draft are from spots, say, 15-45, there will be a lot of teams (especially on the back end of the round) grabbing guys they have rated higher specifically for their system or needs. 

I have kind of hoped a QB needy team who might buy into a Ty Simpson or Drew Allar is willing to move up and you can grab two picks from them. Qbs always seem to be the big pick mover.

[BuffaloBillyG]

3 minutes ago, corta765 said:

Done the same and same weird result. I have honestly thought trade up round 1, trade back into round 2, take two true starters with those picks if you can, and maybe you get 3 other picks. Call it a day and hope you are right because if so it helps big time. Otherwise it all feels like a much larger roll of the dice then in other years.

I have kind of hoped a QB needy team who might buy into a Ty Simpson or Drew Allar is willing to move up and you can grab two picks from them. Qbs always seem to be the big pick mover.

I agree, this would be a great year for a trade back. Even better if we came away with a few extra 2027 picks. I do think the cost to trade up will be significantly lower than in many years. 

[billsfan89]

The draft to me is just about filling a need short term at pick 26 and then finding talent wherever it may lie (for the most part) to build up the team longer term. Rookie draft classes are a big success if you get two guys to come in and start at an average or better level and maybe 1-2 successful role players. So if the Bills can get one plug and play starter at pick 26 and a useful role player in the mid-rounds for this upcoming season I am good with that. 

[Sierra Foothills]

19 minutes ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

As womeone who's done multiple mock draft sims as the Bills,  it is a very awkward position. I've tried taking Concepcion, Cooper, McDaniel et al at 26 and find it hard to fill any other needs. I've traded down and found I'm overdrafting guys. My best result has been trading down with the Eagles (they offered) and got 54, 68 back and still had the other picks. Ended up with Gabe Jacas and Ted Hurst and then some secondary,OL and DL help. It's tough this year.

 

Not that there's anything wrong with that... and I'm glad you feel comfortable enough in this community to be completely honest with us.

 

I love you sisbro.

 

[ToGoGo]

45 minutes ago, corta765 said:

Peter Schrager released his NFL mock today and he is considered one of the best in the business. I read enough mock drafts you start to get an idea of player ranges and who will probably be available when the Bills pick. The one thing that you cannot predict is when a run happens on a position which typically is QB or a skill position like WR/CB. QB happens more regularly though and this year there is not another true 1st round quality pick then Mendoza. That doesn't mean a guy like Ty Simpson may not be drafted late, but most drafts just have Mendoza. Anyway, the issue the Bills are really starting to have in most mocks is the better DE's are already gone as are the top WRs. If the Bills want a true impact starter their only way would be moving up which means less draft capital this year or next (or both yikes). Conversely LB/ or the remaining DEs which they need have more 2nd/3rd round level draft status where using your 1st is probably an overreach. Many players certainly start drafted after round 1, but the percentage is far lower and many times they start as rotational pieces vs actually being ready to go. Even Milano in his first year took a while to find his way on the field despite showing major flashes. I would be a bit surprised if Leonard doens't go with a more experienced starting LB corp unless they really do draft a ready to go LB/Rusher which don't exactly exist in spades as the draft goes on lol.

 

The Bills very likely may be stuck with a lack of great options with the 1 while having to find a decent dance partner to move back and acquire additional picks. To me if the board shakes where the top 5-6 WR/DEs go before you can get close you move back and try to add another 2nd and/or 3rd/4th. I'd truly love to see them draft a WR with a 1st round pick, but teams like MIA/NYJ/CLE all have two picks in the 1st round where they can take a WR early or late and that is not factoring in the Giants who have been rumored to go at a running mate for Nabers or the Rams who keep getting mocked a WR too. In a draft where Beane reallllyyy needs some hits to help shore up the future core of the team he has his work cutout for him.

 

The cost of always being a good team. 

 

The only real solution to this problem is to start losing more. 

[corta765]

12 minutes ago, ToGoGo said:

 

The cost of always being a good team. 

 

The only real solution to this problem is to start losing more. 

Without a doubt but some draft years feel better where you can help your needs more. This year (which unfortunately we still have some real holes that are not filled) feels like a pick your poison kinda scenario OR just go BPA because the odds of filling your needs specially on the front 7 are not great.

[condor1]

With all this talk that it's a bad draft year talent wise, It seems we should all be overjoyed that we got Moore for our 2nd. Apparently, there isn't anyone much good left by that pick.

 

[TheBeaneBandit]

3 minutes ago, condor1 said:

With all this talk that it's a bad draft year talent wise, It seems we should all be overjoyed that we got Moore for our 2nd. Apparently, there isn't anyone much good left by that pick.

 

There really isn't.  I think at 91 unless we are extremely lucky your looking career backups from that point on as well. 

[BearNorth]

Our biggest needs are:

 

LG - Hopefully since we carry a lot of OL, the solution is in house.

Nose Tackle & Backup Nose Tackle, not seeing any Vita Vea's on our roster

FB - or do we keep a 4th TE and use Hawes/ an OL as the FB when needed

WR6 - If needed

Inside LB - really nervous about Bernard's lack of size as ILB in a 3-4

CB5 who would primarily play teams.

 

Then there are the Injured folks

How ready to play will be ?

WR - Shavers

DI - Carter

Edge - Hoecht

Edge - L. Jackson

CB - Strong

 

Food for thought

 

 

[27yankees]

Have done multiple sim drafts and each one involved trading out of 1st and included 27 1st to reap multiple 2nds and thirds. Great LB/DT/S Value in those rounds. Moving Groot/Hoecht to a Hybrid Edge/LB role could reap dividends. Big Safety in Draft (Kilgore), Thumping LB's (Golday/Trottier). DT's (Orange/Iowa State/Jackson FSU). Have to spend money to make money. 

Edited Wednesday at 02:37 PM by 27yankees

[corta765]

3 hours ago, BearNorth said:

Our biggest needs are:

 

LG - Hopefully since we carry a lot of OL, the solution is in house.

Nose Tackle & Backup Nose Tackle, not seeing any Vita Vea's on our roster

FB - or do we keep a 4th TE and use Hawes/ an OL as the FB when needed

WR6 - If needed

Inside LB - really nervous about Bernard's lack of size as ILB in a 3-4

CB5 who would primarily play teams.

 

Then there are the Injured folks

How ready to play will be ?

WR - Shavers

DI - Carter

Edge - Hoecht

Edge - L. Jackson

CB - Strong

 

Food for thought

 

 

How does Oliver not qualify as a NT. Sorry I do not fully understand the position stuff as well as other. I am very confused on why we need another DT when we have Oliver Sanders Walker.

[BigAl2526]

Everyone is saying that this draft has a serious lack of top end, elite talent.  If you're not drafting in the top ten, the player you draft might not have been a first round pick in most drafts.  That means there's probably not much reason to try and trade up, unless there's a specific player at a position of great need and your staff thinks he's a lot better than the consensus thinks.  I am a great fan of the Bills trading down this year.  Of course, that means they would have to find a trading partner.  Looking at specific positions, there are probably three wide receivers who will be drafted before Buffalo picks: Carnell Tate, Jordyn Tyson and Makai Lemon.  Even those three have warts.  They all have pretty average speed.  Tyson has a significant injury history and Lemon's best fit is usually seen as the slot.  Denzel Boston and Kevin Concepcion are the names lots of mock drafters have thrown at the Bills over the last few months.  Boston is a little slower than the top three.  He's a contested catch guy with a little more polish than Keon Coleman had coming out.  He probably has a higher floor than Coleman.  I don't know that his ceiling is much higher.  Concepcion is the fastest receiver among those most likely to go in the first round, but he's far from the fastest receiver in the draft.  His calling card is the ability to separate with quickness and route running. He's just average height for a receiver and has a reputation for drops.  If Buffalo thinks one of these guys can help them enough t make them a first round pick, I'm OK with that, but I won't be broken hearted if they don't pick one of them.  I think there are a number of receivers with lower round grades that potentially have ceilings as high or higher than Boston or Concepcion.  Some of them will still be around after the second round. 

 

It's pretty much the same deal with any other position Buffalo might draft in round one.  The edge rushers who will be available are good, or at least potentially good, but not great.  Are they so much better than what might be available after a trade down, or even in round 3 that the Bills have to get one?  I'm not convinced.  Do the  Bills need a nose tackle?  There is perhaps one, Kaden McDonald who will be available when Buffalo picks at #26 that wouldn't be a significant reach, but I don't think he has that much more upside than Christen Miller after a trade down or Darrel Jackson in round 3 or Domonique Orange or Dontay Corleone. . .   I can make the same argument at linebacker.  Do we really want the Bills to draft an offensive lineman in round 1?  Give me as many picks in rounds 2 and 3 as you can get, and I'm happy this year. 

Edited Thursday at 02:47 AM by BigAl2526

[Pete]

8 hours ago, BearNorth said:

Our biggest needs are:

 

LG - Hopefully since we carry a lot of OL, the solution is in house.

Nose Tackle & Backup Nose Tackle, not seeing any Vita Vea's on our roster

FB - or do we keep a 4th TE and use Hawes/ an OL as the FB when needed

 

- If needed

Inside LB - really nervous about Bernard's lack of size as ILB in a 3-4

CB5 who would primarily play teams.

 

 

 

Food for thought

 

 

I’d say WR2 and CB 3 are big needs.  We are running a 3-4, and only have 3 LBs rostered.  So we need multiple LBers.  NT is a huge need, and usually Beane fills needs prior to the draft.  That leads me to believe we have a handshake, post draft deal with DJ Reader or another veteran NT.  Edge and DE are big needs.  And Safety depth.

 

Beane has his work cut out.

 

McD got fired for saying the roster was not good enough.  With the many big needs the Bills have, perhaps McD spoke the truth 

[MJS]

That's how the draft is designed. Winning teams are supposed to have lower draft value. If you are picking at the end of each round, you get the scraps. That's just uow it goes.

 

The draft and free agency are exciting for the crappy teams. When you are good, you get to enjoy the actual football season.

Edited Thursday at 04:37 PM by MJS