Bruce Feldman 1st round mock for The Athletic

[Mikey152]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

You can mitigate, to some extent, you can't negate completely. And he is going to be losing those battles by 3 to 5 inches every time. His angles and leverage have an enormous amount to overcome.

It's not that simple.  

 

They don't just reach out in a straight line. They also don't have the same goal...this isn't a boxing match and Howell isn't trying to control the tackle in a pass rush.

 

Would it hurt his run defense?  Sure. Pass rush?  Not nearly as much.

 

We can discuss the trig and physics if you want, but you'd be surprised.

 

[GunnerBill]

Just now, Mikey152 said:

It's not that simple.  

 

They don't just reach out in a straight line. They also don't have the same goal...this isn't a boxing match and Howell isn't trying to control the tackle in a pass rush.

 

Would it hurt his run defense?  Sure. Pass rush?  Not nearly as much.

 

We can discuss the trig and physics if you want, but you'd be surprised.

 

 

It isn't a boxing match. Nor is it a pure math exercise. It is way more difficult than you make out.

[SoonerBillsFan]

21 minutes ago, LEBills said:

It’s just because of the value of that position in general. People expect that we can get a fine enough starter later in the draft or in FA. 
 

The Broncos last year had Alex Singleton and Justin Strnad who were undrafted and a 5th round pick respectively. Same for the Vikings, an undrafted and 5th round ILB. Seahawks have an undrafted LB and a FA linebacker making 9.5 million per season.

So many people want to focus on the expensive positions of WR and Edge early and leave the cheaper positions for later or FA.

 

Go back and see what Leonhard said was his priority,  Stopping the run.  The NFL is reverting back to run the ball and defense.

 

We dont have the linebackers to do the top thing he wants done.  And stop looking at Denvers version of the 3-4, its not Leonhard's, he mainly delt with the backend as for as the passing game in Denver.

[Mikey152]

13 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It isn't a boxing match. Nor is it a pure math exercise. It is way more difficult than you make out.

Than I make it out?  You are the one that said he will struggle because of a reach disadvantage. That only applies if they two people have the same goal. In a stand up pass rush situation, they don't.

 

For example, if a 6'7 tackle is trying to put his hands on 6'2 Howell's chest, he needs to reach down, shortening his functional arm length. If the pass rusher dips, he has to reach down even more. An Athletic tackle will sink their hips to increase their functional leverage (non-athletic will bend to gain length but lose leverage due to higher center of gravity). That however, has consequences...Having to consistently set a hyper-aggressive pass-block against a speed rusher is TIRING. Exploding into an athletic pass set to negate a speed rusher is MURDER on your legs. So they might win some battles and lose the war.

 

Like I said, would I draft him as a 3 down edge player?  No. Would I take him as a weapon to compliment Rosseau and Chubb?  Heck yeah I would. Whether that is worth a first round pick is worth a debate, but if it helps the pass rush, I don't care if he is a prowbowler or not.

 

[KOKBILLS]

I like Howell more than most... His PR arsenal is impressive... But I'm not sure he can ever be more than a DPR in the NFL... He may be a great one... Maybe... But that's a longshot for almost any prospect let alone outliers. 

No way would I take Howell ahead of Kayden McDonald... Just me personally... 

[RyanC883]

The DT McDonald from Ohio State seems like a better grab here.  Hate KC going a few before us.  

Edited April 3 by RyanC883

[Mikey152]

Side note:  Micah Parson's arms are 31.5" 

[LEBills]

16 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

Go back and see what Leonhard said was his priority,  Stopping the run.  The NFL is reverting back to run the ball and defense.

 

We dont have the linebackers to do the top thing he wants done.  And stop looking at Denvers version of the 3-4, its not Leonhard's, he mainly delt with the backend as for as the passing game in Denver.

While I agree LB is important for the Leonhard defense and stopping the run is becoming more important across the NFL, the value has not caught up there yet. You can still get good LBs that fit into good defenses that are good at stopping the run for a fraction of what a good WR or Edge costs. 
 

In addition the the Broncos and Seahawks who allowed the third and fourth fewest rush yards this year and the LBs I already highlighted.

 

Jax who were first agains the run just allowed Devin Lloyd to leave in free agency as a former second round pick. The Texans were second and signed Al-Shaheer as a FA and just reupped his contract for $11 mil per season. The Patriots were 6th and have Ellis who they signed as a FA for $7 mil per season and Spillane who they signed as a FA making $12 mil per season. Tampa was 5th and both of their ILB from last season are not currently with the team going into 2026.

[GunnerBill]

8 minutes ago, Mikey152 said:

Side note:  Micah Parson's arms are 31.5" 

 

Micah Parson is a way more talented player than Cashius Howell. As is Rueben Bain at the top of this class. That is the point. Not that Howell could never win. But that his limitations will mean he doesn't win nearly often enough to make his limited overall skillset worth a first round pick. The arm length narrows your path to success even as a pass rusher. And it puts a higher tariff on the rest of your technique being on point. And his isn't sufficiently.

[Mikey152]

20 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Micah Parson is a way more talented player than Cashius Howell. As is Rueben Bain at the top of this class. That is the point. Not that Howell could never win. But that his limitations will mean he doesn't win nearly often enough to make his limited overall skillset worth a first round pick. The arm length narrows your path to success even as a pass rusher. And it puts a higher tariff on the rest of your technique being on point. And his isn't sufficiently.

 

Just because you say it doesn't make it so. Since you are a wanna be scout, why don't you show me how Bain is "so much more talented"...I'll wait. What, exactly, is your criteria for that outside of some random big boards? I mean, you say it so matter-of-factly. 

 

Im really growing increasingly tired of fans acting like they are professional scouts or GMs because they read a lot of stuff on the internet. If I had to guess, my frustation is probably a result of AI...its basically the same thing. Other people who don't know what they are talking about read it and it seems smart so...they must know what they are talking about!

 

Out of curiousity, Bill...how many pass rush reps have you run in your life with pads on?

 

Also, another side note...Howell's wing span was 74"+.  I.e. pretty much the same as his height. So his arms aren't anatomically short for his height, they're short for an edge, but so is he at 6'2". People act like the dude is a TRex. It's insane. Also of note is the NFL measures arm length from shoulder to tip of middle finger...so your hand size and finger length is factored into arm length even though it has zero functional use when it comes to leverage. In other words, much ado about nothing.

Edited April 3 by Mikey152

[GunnerBill]

24 minutes ago, LEBills said:

While I agree LB is important for the Leonhard defense and stopping the run is becoming more important across the NFL, the value has not caught up there yet. You can still get good LBs that fit into good defenses that are good at stopping the run for a fraction of what a good WR or Edge costs. 
 

In addition the the Broncos and Seahawks who allowed the third and fourth fewest rush yards this year and the LBs I already highlighted.

 

Jax who were first agains the run just allowed Devin Lloyd to leave in free agency as a former second round pick. The Texans were second and signed Al-Shaheer as a FA and just reupped his contract for $11 mil per season. The Patriots were 6th and have Ellis who they signed as a FA for $7 mil per season and Spillane who they signed as a FA making $12 mil per season. Tampa was 5th and both of their ILB from last season are not currently with the team going into 2026.

 

Lloyd was a first. Traded back into the 1st for him.

13 minutes ago, Mikey152 said:

 

Just because you say it doesn't make it so. Since you are a wanna be scout, why don't you show me how Bain is "so much more talented"...I'll wait. What, exactly, is your criteria for that outside of some random big boards? I mean, you say it so matter-of-factly. 

 

Im really growing increasingly tired of fans acting like they are professional scouts or GMs because they read a lot of stuff on the internet. If I had to guess, my frustation is probably a result of AI...its basically the same thing. Other people who don't know what they are talking about read it and it seems smart so...they must know what they are talking about!

 

Out of curiousity, Bill...how many pass rush reps have you run in your life with pads on?

 

Also, another side note...Howell's wing span was 74"+.  I.e. pretty much the same as his height. So his arms aren't anatomically short for his height, they're short for an edge, but so is he at 6'2". People act like the dude is a TRex. It's insane. Also of note is the NFL measures arm length from shoulder to tip of middle finger...so your hand size and finger length is factored into arm length even though it has zero functional use when it comes to leverage. In other words, much ado about nothing.

 

My criteria for it is having watched them both - multiple full games. No, I have never rushed the passer with pads on. Disagree with me if you like, that's totally your right. But I will stick with what I see and you can stick with what you see. I happen to think you are wrong. Game of opinions.

[gonzo1105]

23 minutes ago, Mikey152 said:

 

Just because you say it doesn't make it so. Since you are a wanna be scout, why don't you show me how Bain is "so much more talented"...I'll wait. What, exactly, is your criteria for that outside of some random big boards? I mean, you say it so matter-of-factly. 

 

Im really growing increasingly tired of fans acting like they are professional scouts or GMs because they read a lot of stuff on the internet. If I had to guess, my frustation is probably a result of AI...its basically the same thing. Other people who don't know what they are talking about read it and it seems smart so...they must know what they are talking about!

 

Out of curiousity, Bill...how many pass rush reps have you run in your life with pads on?

 

Also, another side note...Howell's wing span was 74"+.  I.e. pretty much the same as his height. So his arms aren't anatomically short for his height, they're short for an edge, but so is he at 6'2". People act like the dude is a TRex. It's insane. Also of note is the NFL measures arm length from shoulder to tip of middle finger...so your hand size and finger length is factored into arm length even though it has zero functional use when it comes to leverage. In other words, much ado about nothing.

Well I mean I played college ball, was a D1 recruiting assistant, have done pass rushing drills in my life, was a high school coach for a decade and a D3 coach for another handful and I agree with him. 
 

No one is saying there is no chance for him to be successful. The ODDS point to it being a longshot. Some other people have said it’s the equivalent of an NBA player being 5’4. I can only think of two players nest that height that had success in the NBA. Spud Webb and Mugsey Bogues. 
 

What he , I , and many others are the saying is it isn’t risk effective to use a premium selection when there is zero data historically to prove he’ll be successful. Maybe he’ll break that trend , become that anomaly , and prove historical data wrong . 
 

As for the Bills, Brandon Beane has taken 1 defensive lineman in his tenure that has not sniffed 33” in arm length in his tenure and that was Ed Oliver. Every edge rusher that Beane has taken has been over 33” arm length. That’s not opinion , not conjecture, that’s fact. 
 

Now maybe the arm length thing was a McDermott thing. Maybe Beane will change it up with a new defensive staff in town but the people who do the research can only go on what the Bills and the NFL have done historically. 
 

As it sits right now, today, there is no historical data of A. the Bills taking an edge rusher with 30 inch arms and B. A player with 30 inch arms becoming a special player. 

[Mikey152]

22 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Lloyd was a first. Traded back into the 1st for him.

 

My criteria for it is having watched them both - multiple full games. No, I have never rushed the passer with pads on. Disagree with me if you like, that's totally your right. But I will stick with what I see and you can stick with what you see. I happen to think you are wrong. Game of opinions.

Fine, you don't like the Parsons or Bain Comps because of "talent" gaps...

 

What about Nick Herbig? Would you take him?

[GunnerBill]

19 minutes ago, Mikey152 said:

Fine, you don't like the Parsons or Bain Comps because of "talent" gaps...

 

What about Nick Herbig? Would you take him?

 

In round 1? No. He went round 4. He has been a good player. You might consider he'd have "proved me wrong" that's fine. But I still don't think it is good bet to make at #26. 

Edited April 3 by GunnerBill

[Mikey152]

Just now, gonzo1105 said:

Well I mean I played college ball, was a D1 recruiting assistant, have done pass rushing drills in my life, was a high school coach for a decade and a D3 coach for another handful and I agree with him. 
 

No one is saying there is no chance for him to be successful. The ODDS point to it being a longshot. Some other people have said it’s the equivalent of an NBA player being 5’4. I can only think of two players nest that height that had success in the NBA. Spud Webb and Mugsey Bogues. 
 

What he , I , and many others are the saying is it isn’t risk effective to use a premium selection when there is zero data historically to prove he’ll be successful. Maybe he’ll break that trend , become that anomaly , and prove historical data wrong . 
 

As for the Bills, Brandon Beane has taken 1 defensive lineman in his tenure that has not sniffed 33” in arm length in his tenure and that was Ed Oliver. Every edge rusher that Beane has taken has been over 33” arm length. That’s not opinion , not conjecture, that’s fact. 
 

Now maybe the arm length thing was a McDermott thing. Maybe Beane will change it up with a new defensive staff in town but the people who do the research can only go on what the Bills and the NFL have done historically. 
 

As it sits right now, today, there is no historical data of A. the Bills taking an edge rusher with 30 inch arms and B. A player with 30 inch arms becoming a special player. 

I'm aware of your credentials. Here is my problem with your stats...they are a self-selecting set that you are misapplying.

 

You are assuming that they were selecting for arm length as if that was the only factor that these prospects had in common. But, biologically speaking, arm length correlates pretty closely with height (wingspan even more so). The taller a player is, the more likely he is to have longer arms. It isn't a 100% correlation, obviously, but it is statistically significant and anatomical fact. Ed Oliver = "Short". Most of the other guys we draft = tall. Height helps with size and frame and weight...those are way more important than an inch of arm length...if you're pass rushing a tackle straight up you're doing it wrong.

 

Howell doesn't have short arms for his size...he is just small for an edge at 6'2" 240 lbs, at least until recently. It is only in the last couple of years that edges that size have become more common in the NFL, so it stands to reason that guys with his arm length were also less common. 

 

His size (not his arms) will obviously impact his ability to anchor and set an edge. It might also mean he has to play almost exclusively standing up and in a two point stance. That's fine. Acknowledged....not a great for for everyone. But the Bills with two Big, strong edges who lack real speed to threaten the edge?  He might be a great fit.  We can argue that it might not be great first round value, but what is that really? If he elps the bills defense on third down, it's worth it in my book.

[gonzo1105]

2 minutes ago, Mikey152 said:

I'm aware of your credentials. Here is my problem with your stats...they are a self-selecting set that you are misapplying.

 

You are assuming that they were selecting for arm length as if that was the only factor that these prospects had in common. But, biologically speaking, arm length correlates pretty closely with height (wingspan even more so). The taller a player is, the more likely he is to have longer arms. It isn't a 100% correlation, obviously, but it is statistically significant and anatomical fact. Ed Oliver = "Short". Most of the other guys we draft = tall. Height helps with size and frame and weight...those are way more important than an inch of arm length...if you're pass rushing a tackle straight up you're doing it wrong.

 

Howell doesn't have short arms for his size...he is just small for an edge at 6'2" 240 lbs, at least until recently. It is only in the last couple of years that edges that size have become more common in the NFL, so it stands to reason that guys with his arm length were also less common. 

 

His size (not his arms) will obviously impact his ability to anchor and set an edge. It might also mean he has to play almost exclusively standing up and in a two point stance. That's fine. Acknowledged....not a great for for everyone. But the Bills with two Big, strong edges who lack real speed to threaten the edge?  He might be a great fit.  We can argue that it might not be great first round value, but what is that really? If he elps the bills defense on third down, it's worth it in my book.

They took Javon Solomon. He’s 6’1 his arms are almost 34 inches. 
 

They took Dion Dawkins who is short for an OT at 6’3 he has 35 inch arms . 

Harrison Phillips an inch taller than Howell had 33 “ inch arms 

 

Boogie Basham an inch taller than Howell 33” in arms 

 

Dewayne Carter same height as Howell 33” inch arms 

 

Now your next argument will probably be well those are mostly DTs but you already said it, the Edge rushers they like are tall , so that also would point to not taking Howell. 

 

[Mikey152]

39 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

They took Javon Solomon. He’s 6’1 his arms are almost 34 inches. 
 

They took Dion Dawkins who is short for an OT at 6’3 he has 35 inch arms . 

Harrison Phillips an inch taller than Howell had 33 “ inch arms 

 

Boogie Basham an inch taller than Howell 33” in arms 

 

Dewayne Carter same height as Howell 33” inch arms 

 

Now your next argument will probably be well those are mostly DTs but you already said it, the Edge rushers they like are tall , so that also would point to not taking Howell. 

 

Couple of things...

 

First I will address the Bills strategy. As a 4-3 team they were looking for edges that could set an edge in the run game and rush the passer. Edges, in general, tend to be bigger. Most of the teams that carry smaller (shorter and/or lighter) edge players play 3-4 (or more wide 9) concepts. So it would stand to reason that a change in scheme would change what kind of edge they are looking for.

 

As for the players you mentioned...There is obviously no one rule for anything, but the ape index is a very real biological thing. finger tip to finger tip for most adults is roughly 1:1 with their height. Obviously there can be outliers, but that is a general rule. A positive Ape Index has been seen as an athletic advantage in some sports for obvious reasons and I am sure some positions in football benefit greatly from having long arms. That said, this idea that arm length in and of itself is a reason to drop a guy 4 rounds based on some fuzzy math when there is no actual correlation to performance is a bit insane. Also to note they measure arms (and wingspan) to the middle finger. So if you have small hands, it lowers your wingspan and arm length without changing your functional arm length one bit. If Howell had 10" hands, he might have 31.5" arms, for example.

 

If Arm length matters as much as I see people saying, why was Solomon a 6th round pick and generally unproductive in the NFL?  Why are guys like Bain and Howell winning player of the year awards in strong conferences?  

 

Bottom line is Howell is on the small side for an edge. His arms are "short" because he isn't very big. But he IS explosive and he is very athletic and strong for his size. He also has a ton of moves and is clearly a good pass rusher. He would be an instant pass for the Bills last year.  This year?  He might be a great fit.

 

Also, as an aside, I just have to say it...Gunner, this whole Xing all my posts without meaningful responses to what I actually post is pretty childish.

Edited April 3 by Mikey152

[BillsShredder83]

21 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

So I don't have pre and post injury rankings really. I grade the film and then put flags for injury and off field. 

 

I've got Bell as an early 3rd grade - WR8. But in this class think he will/should go second half of round 2.

Whats the O/U pick you'd have him at if he didnt have the ACL? Late first?

 

If hes our target i would not trade back farther than 33. That R2 pick #1 has been a WR Hotspot several times recently. If he makes it there I could absolutely see someone going up to get him, or Jets just taking him, as first pick of day 2.

[Mikey152]

I was thinking...this thread reminds me a lot of the Trent Mcduffie stuff from his draft year. Something about "no corner in the last 10 years has made the pro bowl with shorter than 30" arms..."

[Paup 1995MVP]

On 4/3/2026 at 7:33 AM, GunnerBill said:

 

I have him graded end of round 2 - he will go before that but in terms of grade that's where I have him. 

 

What's to like? Explosion and bend. I just think it is going to be hard for him to maximise those skills in the NFL for the reasons discussed. Situational pass rusher is what I see him as rather than ever being a starter / true 3 down player.

A better Javon Salomon ?

 

Do you see us taking him at 26, or maybe trading back and taking him in the second round ?

 

You seem to know the players well for the upcoming draft.  Who do you think we take w our first pick?  And who do you hope we take with our first pick?