Kirby Jackson Posted March 30 Author Posted March 30 6 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said: I have never said what I actually want though - I have ONLY spoken about what I think is going to happen. Let me be clear, I am not against a WR in the first - admittedly, I don't think its our biggest need, but I am not against it either. Our gap in our convo is that I don't think its as likely as you do. Plus, 2027 looks like a much better year to be in the draft looking for a WR to be the heir to Moore. I can see Beane liking the idea of moving back and picking up a 2nd next year to have more ammo for that draft too. End of the day, Beane genearlly sticks to his board... NOTE: A potential target I do really want: Theineman - but I honestly do not expect him to get to us We are more aligned than it seems. Trade back would be the ideal situation (if Thieneman isn’t there). I just don’t think teams are dying to come up in this draft unless Ty Simpson is still there. Even then it is a limited market. 2027 certainly feels like a better WR class. The Bills just seem hellbent on adding to it. They’re talking to everyone and about everyone. Now Dontavyion Wicks is in the conversation. That one doesn’t make a ton of sense but it sure feels like they are working hard on that room. 2 Quote
GunnerBill Posted March 30 Posted March 30 Just now, Alphadawg7 said: I also think CJ Allen would be in play but probably doesn't get there. I think he has a better shot to though than Thieneman, but if Thieneman gets there I think we spring to the podium. And see that is why I think moving back is our betting favorite - we are not as needy at WR now, and a team wanting to come up for a WR, OT, or CB would make sense on a trade back and allow us to pick up another premium pick(s). Then take a WR with our next pick if they wanted to as well. Teams move up for those kinds of positions I don't know that you can make a move that requires two parties to agree a betting favourite over a stay and pick. I'd favour a trade down, even a discounted one (especially if we can land a mid round 2027 pick in the deal) but it isn't the betting favourite. Wide receiver is. And right after the Moore trade I wouldn't have said that. But the more clarity I start to get on how this class comes off the board the more I think yep, receiver sound sensible. I also would rather they pass on WR in round 1 this year so they take one in a stronger class next year. I worry we will take okay now and pass on difference making in a year's time. 1 Quote
TheBeaneBandit Posted March 30 Posted March 30 8 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: I don't know that you can make a move that requires two parties to agree a betting favourite over a stay and pick. I'd favour a trade down, even a discounted one (especially if we can land a mid round 2027 pick in the deal) but it isn't the betting favourite. Wide receiver is. And right after the Moore trade I wouldn't have said that. But the more clarity I start to get on how this class comes off the board the more I think yep, receiver sound sensible. I also would rather they pass on WR in round 1 this year so they take one in a stronger class next year. I worry we will take okay now and pass on difference making in a year's time. I get it but if the class next year is as good as advertised they could go flying off the board like hotcakes, requiring a trade up. I'm OK waiting, but also open to striking while you can as well. 2 1 Quote
GASabresIUFan Posted March 30 Posted March 30 I'm getting the sickening feeling they are again not going to draft a WR with a consequential draft pick. Last season they talked to about 8 WRs, most with middle round grades, and then didn't draft any of them. This season is following the same pattern, except the players are a little higher on the pecking order. There are just to many holes on defense and Beane already spend a huge amount of capital (2nd rd pick & over 32 mill in cap space for this season - 11% of the team's cap) on the WRs already here. By contrast, the whole defense is currently about 29% of the cap. LB 6%, Corner 6%,safety 3%, Edge 7.5%, DL 7% 2 Quote
3rdand12 Posted March 30 Posted March 30 27 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: I don't know that you can make a move that requires two parties to agree a betting favourite over a stay and pick. I'd favour a trade down, even a discounted one (especially if we can land a mid round 2027 pick in the deal) but it isn't the betting favourite. Wide receiver is. And right after the Moore trade I wouldn't have said that. But the more clarity I start to get on how this class comes off the board the more I think yep, receiver sound sensible. I also would rather they pass on WR in round 1 this year so they take one in a stronger class next year. I worry we will take okay now and pass on difference making in a year's time. This is important. And depends on why we each think the reasoning Bills did not make it all the way last year. I would suggest we were one honest semi elite X away from an offensive perspective. But multiples away on Defense to get through the playoffs ( Yes I know key Injuries ) What Jim Leonhard needs to turn that corner has not shown up to be in FA acquisitions. Chubb and the Safety not named Stone ? sure. If they are drafting for impact players , I suspect it should be defense. Or volume of decent D depth. Next year they can go nutso on WRs Bills contracts for Palmer expire you can dump Coleman too, Next draft is WR bonanza for Bills Dont force it Beanes Quote
Kirby Jackson Posted March 30 Author Posted March 30 3 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said: I'm getting the sickening feeling they are again not going to draft a WR with a consequential draft pick. Last season they talked to about 8 WRs, most with middle round grades, and then didn't draft any of them. This season is following the same pattern, except the players are a little higher on the pecking order. There are just to many holes on defense and Beane already spend a huge amount of capital (2nd rd pick & over 32 mill in cap space for this season - 11% of the team's cap) on the WRs already here. By contrast, the whole defense is currently about 29% of the cap. LB 6%, Corner 6%,safety 3%, Edge 7.5%, DL 7% Why isn’t he meeting with the top of the defensive class like WR then? I’d maybe buy that argument if he was spending equal time with the top defensive guys. By my count they’ve met with 5 1st round guys (Thieneman, Boston, Tyson, Concepcion and Cooper). 4 of them are WRs. Quote
QLBillsFan Posted March 30 Posted March 30 7 hours ago, Back2Buff said: This would be great. I also don't know why people think LB is such a need. OLB: Hoecht, Chubb, Rousseau, Solomon ILB: Bernard, Williams, Andreesen Would a first round pick really be all that impact this year? Do we need depth, absolutely, but I also think there are some FAs that could add that. In regards to Hoecht injury, I can only go off of what he has said where he thinks he will be ready to go. I also look at Jayson Tatum who was playing high level games 10 months after his injury. He had surgery on 11/6 so 10 months would be 9/6. I think WR is a much bigger need. Some good points here. If Joe A is playing a lot of snaps at LB I think that’s not good enough. I agree LB doesn’t have to be in round 1.. in fact probably at 91. But they have some flexibility for BPA at a couple positions of need. Quote
GunnerBill Posted March 30 Posted March 30 49 minutes ago, TheBeaneBandit said: I get it but if the class next year is as good as advertised they could go flying off the board like hotcakes, requiring a trade up. I'm OK waiting, but also open to striking while you can as well. I wouldn't hate on a receiver. Their need there is still significant enough I will not criticise them if they do it. But I imagine a world where we end up wishing we waited. Maybe it's BBFS. 1 Quote
Pecker Posted March 31 Posted March 31 10 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said: For my money, Miller is the best in the business. Here’s his latest 7 round mock: https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2026/story/_/id/48299038/2026-nfl-mock-draft-seven-rounds-257-picks-projections-matt-miller Bills picks: 26 - Omar Cooper - WR - Indiana 91 - Derrick Moore - Edge - Michigan 126. Devin Moore - CB - Florida 165. Billy Schrauth - G - ND 168. Xavian Sorey Jr. - LB - Arkansas 182. Nadame Tucker - Edge - Western Michigan 220. Dalton Johnson - S - Arizona My biggest takeaway is that the Bills are adding a lot of guys named Moore this offseason. Sorey Jr is a real thumper, and Tucker is my favorite late round prospect. 1 Quote
BuffaloRebound Posted March 31 Posted March 31 I’d guess trading a 1st rounder next year would get you a lot higher in this draft than a normal year. Quote
SoCal Deek Posted March 31 Posted March 31 2 hours ago, GASabresIUFan said: I'm getting the sickening feeling they are again not going to draft a WR with a consequential draft pick. Last season they talked to about 8 WRs, most with middle round grades, and then didn't draft any of them. This season is following the same pattern, except the players are a little higher on the pecking order. There are just to many holes on defense and Beane already spend a huge amount of capital (2nd rd pick & over 32 mill in cap space for this season - 11% of the team's cap) on the WRs already here. By contrast, the whole defense is currently about 29% of the cap. LB 6%, Corner 6%,safety 3%, Edge 7.5%, DL 7% I’m not fixated on drafting a WR. They’ve spent a good chunk of change on boosting that roster spot via free agency. The more urgent need ….and it’s not even close…is building a defense in support of the new DCs projected alignment. Quote
Alphadawg7 Posted March 31 Posted March 31 (edited) 8 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said: We are more aligned than it seems. Trade back would be the ideal situation (if Thieneman isn’t there). I just don’t think teams are dying to come up in this draft unless Ty Simpson is still there. Even then it is a limited market. 2027 certainly feels like a better WR class. The Bills just seem hellbent on adding to it. They’re talking to everyone and about everyone. Now Dontavyion Wicks is in the conversation. That one doesn’t make a ton of sense but it sure feels like they are working hard on that room. I think this is where you and I differ the most - how we read these things. I see a team "hellbent" on NOT having to draft a WR in the first vs "hellbent" on getting a WR with our first round pick. They went to the combine and met with a lot of the first round guys realistic in their range. They responded to that by trading a 2nd round pick for Moore. If they loved a WR as an option with the first, then a tight cap team doesn't make that trade. Then they express interest in other veteran WR's since as well - and now supposedly showing interest in a trade for one. I don't care what any fans say about Keon, the coaches and Beane have been over the top about their belief in him this year, and this team has never been one for lip service to try and trick teams into a trade. So you have Moore, Shakir, Keon, Palmer all pretty much for sure here - now you go trade for a guy like Wicks or add someone like Cooks back? That is a team trying NOT to draft a WR early, you wouldn't make those moves if you are focused on going WR early becasue you don't have enough roster spots. Beane isn't giving up an asset to get Wicks to be WR6 on the depth chart. If he trades for Wicks or signs Cooks, then your WR is done outside a flier on day 3. That is the biggest delta in our views - neither feel we must take a WR early, neither of us would hate it, but one of us thinks the WR interest suggests we will (you) and the other sees a team trying to not have to go WR early (me). We will see - but more and more comes out every day to me that suggests staying put in the first and taking a WR is not plan A. The guys they are meeting with more and more are day 3 guys, 2nd round guys (after a potential trade back) or players of other positions. Most the round 1 guys were before the Moore trade. But I do expect Beane to mostly stay BPA - so not impossible we still go WR if that is how the draft falls and a WR is BPA. I just think Beane is showing he does not want to rely on the draft for the WR room right now. Edited March 31 by Alphadawg7 Quote
Alphadawg7 Posted March 31 Posted March 31 (edited) 9 hours ago, GunnerBill said: I don't know that you can make a move that requires two parties to agree a betting favourite over a stay and pick. I'd favour a trade down, even a discounted one (especially if we can land a mid round 2027 pick in the deal) but it isn't the betting favourite. Wide receiver is. And right after the Moore trade I wouldn't have said that. But the more clarity I start to get on how this class comes off the board the more I think yep, receiver sound sensible. I also would rather they pass on WR in round 1 this year so they take one in a stronger class next year. I worry we will take okay now and pass on difference making in a year's time. It depends on how you list betting favorite. If you take trade back vs the whole WR field, well that would make the whole WR field have way more options and higher combined odds. But if you list each player ndividually with their own individual odds and then list trade back as an option - I think trade back would have higher odds than any one specific player would have to be drafted by us. That is how I see the betting odds favorite. I think there is at least a 15-20% chance the Bills trade back, and that might be conservative as I expect Beane to actively try. When I look at all the individual players, both at WR and other positions that the Bills could take at 26, no one player to me stands out with a higher percentage than that. So hence the betting favorite for me is a trade back based on individual outcome odds. Even guys who would have a high % to be drafted by us if on the board like Thieneman are going to have lower odds due to the low odds they last to our pick. Its like having pocket Aces in pocker vs say 7 other hands who came into the pot. If you wanted to bet on who wins the hand - the pocket Aces or the field, the field will be a very heavy favorite even though no one hand is the betting favorite over the Aces themselves. Edited March 31 by Alphadawg7 Quote
GunnerBill Posted March 31 Posted March 31 1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said: It depends on how you list betting favorite. If you take trade back vs the whole WR field, well that would make the whole WR field have way more options and higher combined odds. But if you list each player ndividually with their own individual odds and then list trade back as an option - I think trade back would have higher odds than any one specific player would have to be drafted by us. That is how I see the betting odds favorite. I think there is at least a 15-20% chance the Bills trade back, and that might be conservative as I expect Beane to actively try. When I look at all the individual players, both at WR and other positions that the Bills could take at 26, no one player to me stands out with a higher percentage than that. So hence the betting favorite for me is a trade back based on individual outcome odds. Even guys who would have a high % to be drafted by us if on the board like Thieneman are going to have lower odds due to the low odds they last to our pick. Its like having pocket Aces in pocker vs say 7 other hands who came into the pot. If you wanted to bet on who wins the hand - the pocket Aces or the field, the field will be a very heavy favorite even though no one hand is the betting favorite over the Aces themselves. I am not taking 1 specific player though. Nor was @Kirby Jackson. The betting favourite is WR because there are up to three that appear to be value, that the Bills have at least had some kind of meeting with and could get to #26. It is the only of the Bills perceived major "needs" where there are likely to be value options at that spot. Edge and linebacker very unlikely to have that. Interior OL, possible but not certain and if there is then it's one guy (and not sure they have so far had known contact). That's why receiver is the betting favourite. I'd put trade back as a higher % than Lomu or Terrell (although Lomu if it were me I'd sit and pick) because Beane will target a need, I'm sure of it. 1 Quote
GASabresIUFan Posted March 31 Posted March 31 17 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said: Why isn’t he meeting with the top of the defensive class like WR then? I’d maybe buy that argument if he was spending equal time with the top defensive guys. By my count they’ve met with 5 1st round guys (Thieneman, Boston, Tyson, Concepcion and Cooper). 4 of them are WRs. He is …… https://www.buffalorumblings.com/buffalo-bills-news/130393/buffalo-bills-2026-nfl-draft-visit-tracker DT - Cleveland, Jamison-Travis, C Miller and Halton Edge - Barham and Lawrence LB - Sorey, Trotter and Orr DB/S - 9 different ones so far Quote
Dr. Who Posted March 31 Posted March 31 1 minute ago, GASabresIUFan said: He is …… https://www.buffalorumblings.com/buffalo-bills-news/130393/buffalo-bills-2026-nfl-draft-visit-tracker DT - Cleveland, Jamison-Travis, C Miller and Halton Edge - Barham and Lawrence LB - Sorey, Trotter and Orr DB/S - 9 different ones so far Those are not first round guys, imo. Quote
Kirby Jackson Posted March 31 Author Posted March 31 12 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said: He is …… https://www.buffalorumblings.com/buffalo-bills-news/130393/buffalo-bills-2026-nfl-draft-visit-tracker DT - Cleveland, Jamison-Travis, C Miller and Halton Edge - Barham and Lawrence LB - Sorey, Trotter and Orr DB/S - 9 different ones so far You’re making my point. Those aren’t the guys going at 26. Thieneman and the 4 WRs are the only 1st round guys that they’ve met with. Quote
Sierra Foothills Posted March 31 Posted March 31 I haven't dug too deeply into prospects this year but regarding Miller's 1st round, I'd be very happy if the Bills landed Omar Cooper. While I understand some of the fit concerns about him not being the exact field-stretching X receiver that many want, IMO Cooper is simply a great player and you can't overthink it when you have the opportunity to draft a player like him. I get that stylistically he's pretty reminiscent of DJ Moore but I have no problem adding a young DJ Moore to a WR room featuring DJ Moore. It would be a win in my book. Quote
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