Article on the merits or lack there of, of signing top free agents

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

Article on ESPN about how signing top free agents doesn't work out too well overall.  You can easily debate who he might place in which category, but overall I agree with his premise that overall signing these big contracts doesn't often work out.  Think the Raiders and Jets will be prime examples of how signing a bunch of big name players rarely ever works.  Much of this is because the really good players never actually reach free agency, and the ones that do get to free agency, got there because their old team knows the players flaws that were covered up and knew they weren't worth huge contracts.

 

Recall a quote from Marv Levey years back when he said: "Players leaving in free agency  usually hurts the team the player is leaving much more than it helps the team he's going to"

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/48259731/nfl-free-agency-barnwell-splash-signings-contract-pay-2013-2022

[slaphappy]

I instantly Googled the Eagles " Dream Team " because I thought it was a perfect example. 

[Kirby Jackson]

I didn’t read it yet but it’s a little bit of a self fulfilling prophecy. The teams with the most cap space generally don’t have the QB. They overspend on role players and because they don’t have the QB, inevitably it doesn’t work.

 

There’s also been an uptick in NFL trades over the last 5 years or whatever. The best players that move now do so in a trade instead of FA. Maybe that’s covered in here but someone like Parsons or Waddle are good examples.

Edited March 24 by Kirby Jackson

[MJS]

Part of it is the big spenders are usually the bad teams, because they are the ones with cap room. Why do they have cap room? Because they lack good players, especially at QB. By the time the teams have loaded up on enough talent to compete, and perhaps found a QB, they no longer have the cap space necesary to be big spenders in free agency. Of course, some teams are perpetually spinning their wheels and don't get to that point.

Edited March 23 by MJS

[SoCal Deek]

2 hours ago, MJS said:

Part of it is the big spenders are usually the bad teams, because they are the ones with cap room. Why do they have cap room? Because they lack good players, especially at QB. By the time the teams have loaded up on enough talent to compete, and perhaps found a QB, they no longer have the cap space necesary to be big spenders in free agency. Of course, some teams are perpetually spinning their wheels and don't get to that point.

You don’t have to look any further than Orchard Park NY throughout the drought years. 

[Sierra Foothills]

2 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

The best players that move now do so in a trade instead of FA. Maybe that’s covered in here but someone like Parsons or Waddle are good examples.

DJ Moore was a trade.

 

Edited March 23 by Sierra Foothills

[boyst]

The Bills are in a different world than 30 other teams. We have Allen and will always win 10 games if he is healthy.  I don't consider Mahomes in this class. Stafford is, 

[TheyCallMeAndy]

I'm always curious to look at the 'oh, wow' deals from 3-4 years ago and see how many actually played at a decent level for 3 full seasons. 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

1 hour ago, SoCal Deek said:

You don’t have to look any further than Orchard Park NY throughout the drought years. 

 

I would argue the Redskins about 20 years ago were the poster child

[SoCal Deek]

55 minutes ago, boyst said:

The Bills are in a different world than 30 other teams. We have Allen and will always win 10 games if he is healthy.  I don't consider Mahomes in this class. Stafford is, 

Wait…what? Mahomes literally went to the championship game EVERY YEAR of his career. How in the world does that put him in some sub-class in your perspective? 

[boyst]

3 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Wait…what? Mahomes literally went to the championship game EVERY YEAR of his career. How in the world does that put him in some sub-class in your perspective? 

This year they had him and he couldn't overcome the deficits of his team with more talent than the Bills had. Even if he was healthy the last few weeks they were not getting in the playoffs.

 

Mahomes has regressed and his defense  carried him as much as they could the last few years.  

[Buffalo716]

11 minutes ago, boyst said:

This year they had him and he couldn't overcome the deficits of his team with more talent than the Bills had. Even if he was healthy the last few weeks they were not getting in the playoffs.

 

Mahomes has regressed and his defense  carried him as much as they could the last few years.  

100% it's not a knock out of him because he is a very good quarterback 

 

He's nowhere near the level of a Manning or a Brady or a Joe Montana 

 

He literally came out of the gate on fire and has been regressing for a few years you are a 100% right.. and if you're reggressing from 28 to 30 you're not really going to magically be back to being the best from 30 to 35 

 

He's hobbled regressing and he's had tremendous talent around him for years.. he's had a better roster than the bills which is why he has the Super bowls 

 

And we've lost by three points to a team that has more Hall of famers than the bills 

 

We have Josh Allen.. they've had mahomes Reid, Tyreek and Kelce and jones

 

How do people put the blame on our coach when they have more top and talent and a Hall of Fame coach and we're basically in a coin flip

Edited March 24 by Buffalo716

[boyst]

9 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

100% it's not a knock out of him because he is a very good quarterback 

 

He's nowhere near the level of a Manning or a Brady or a Joe Montana 

 

He literally came out of the gate on fire and has been regressing for a few years you are a 100% right.. and if you're reggressing from 28 to 30 you're not really going to magically be back to being the best from 30 to 35 

 

He's hobbled regressing and he's had tremendous talent around him for years.. he's had a better roster than the bills which is why he has the Super bowls 

 

And we've lost by three points to a team that has more Hall of famers than the bills 

 

We have Josh Allen.. they've had mahomes Reid, Tyreek and Kelce and jones

 

How do people put the blame on our coach when they have more top and talent and a Hall of Fame coach and we're basically in a coin flip

If it was 2017-2021 and I had to choose between Mahomes or Allen I could go either way. But since 2022 it's all Allen.

 

Mahomes has the rings and his best days are behind him. He's no longer the QB to get the team on his back and will them.

[Buffalo716]

1 minute ago, boyst said:

If it was 2017-2021 and I had to choose between Mahomes or Allen I could go either way. But since 2022 it's all Allen.

 

Mahomes has the rings and his best days are behind him. He's no longer the QB to get the team on his back and will them.

Absolutely 

 

First couple years of their career Pat was no doubt more advanced 

 

Josh has quickly closed the Gap and has in my opinion actually surpassed it 

 

The eye test is all you need on Sunday to see one guy is still actually improving.. I don't think we've seen the best from Josh 

 

And the other guy his best days are gone

Edited March 24 by Buffalo716

[Big Blitz]

Patriots spent 300 million last year and will be trading for AJ Brown shortly.  
 

The Bears spent wisely on Oline.  
 

I think it often doesn’t seem to workout bc the player is most likely chasing top dollar over a ring.  Some were thru trades then contract extensions:
 

Thus heading to a bad team - recently Miami (Hill, Chubb, Armstead), Vegas (Chandler Jones), Arizona (Watt), Pittsburgh (DK) come to mind as recent teams that chased the big fish in free agency.  
 

Miami it somewhat worked.

 

 

Lol I never put much thought into Seattle trading DK thus weakening the WR significantly and yet immediately won a SB.  

[Big Turk]

3 hours ago, boyst said:

The Bills are in a different world than 30 other teams. We have Allen and will always win 10 games if he is healthy.  I don't consider Mahomes in this class. Stafford is, 

 

Didn't work out that way for him in Detroit.

[boyst]

6 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Didn't work out that way for him in Detroit.

He wasn't there yet. I am talking right now in football the last 2-3 years and going forward.  Lamar Jackson was there until this year. Mahomes was there until last year. Each QB seems to get a 3-4 yr window of this ability. It makes me wonder how many more Josh has, unfortunately. 

[hondo in seattle]

I've always been skeptical about high priced free agents.  They often don't live up to their cost, aren't worth the opportunity cost, and their big contracts aren't smart cap management.  

 

It seems to me the best way to build a team is to draft well.  Easier said than done, of course, but draftees are cap friendly.

 

After getting your studs in the draft, you fill out the remainder of the roster with good-value (think Moneyball) free agents.  

 

Maybe once every three years you splurge on an expensive FA who you're confident will be worth the price.

[Thurman#1]

2 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

Wait…what? Mahomes literally went to the championship game EVERY YEAR of his career. How in the world does that put him in some sub-class in your perspective? 

 

 

Because his team didn't win ten games this year.

 

Therefore if he was in that category he'd mess up the conclusion.

 

Mahomes was absolutely in that category ... until he wasn't. Really there's no such category. Put a genuinely excellent QB on a crappy team and he will have great trouble winning ten games. Allen and Mahomes are generational but part of the reason Allen has won ten games every year is that he always has had a very good roster around him.

 

 

20 minutes ago, boyst said:

He wasn't there yet. I am talking right now in football the last 2-3 years and going forward.  Lamar Jackson was there until this year. Mahomes was there until last year. Each QB seems to get a 3-4 yr window of this ability. It makes me wonder how many more Josh has, unfortunately. 

 

 

When you have to start saying weirder things to force the data to fit your theory, your theory is the problem.

 

 

Edited March 24 by Thurman#1

[boyst]

1 minute ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Because his team didn't win ten games this year.

 

Therefore if he was in that category he'd mess up the conclusion.

 

Mahomes was absolutely in that category ... until he wasn't. Really there's no such category. Put a genuinely excellent QB on a crappy team and he will have great trouble winning ten games. Allen and Mahomes are generational but part of the reason Allen has won ten games every year is that he always has had a very good roster around him.

 

 

When you have to start saying weirder things to force the data to fit your theory, your theory is the problem.

Opinions vary, hoss.