The WR "Draft Capital illusion" approach

[Magox]

 

 

Just saw this post from Warren Sharp and it confirms a lot of what I’ve been thinking lately regarding how we value WR rooms. We’re so obsessed with "spending" to get talent—whether it’s high first-rounders or massive contracts—but the correlation between draft capital spent and actual WR room success is almost non-existent.

 

In fact, looking at the data, three of the most productive WR units in the league were actually among the lowest in terms of draft capital utilized. It’s a reminder that a "good" WR room isn't bought or drafted by volume; it’s built by scouting specific traits that fit a scheme. It isn't about how many swings you take, it’s about the quality of the contact. You’re better off finding one "right" guy in the 3rd than drafting one in the 1st at the wall and hope that it sticks.

[Big Turk]

[BuffaloRebound]

Why 2022 as a cutoff?  if you move it back a year or 2, the Eagles spent a high 1st on Smith and a 1st on AJ Brown.  Bengals spent a high 1st on Chase and a high 2nd on Higgins.  Dallas used a 1st on Lamb.  Seems silly to use an arbitrary date like 2022.  

[GunnerBill]

We are even lower since 2017. 

 

In terms of value of day 1 and 2 draft capital spent in the draft itself since 2018 we are dead last. One 2nd round pick (#33 in 2024).

 

We have traded a first, a third and now a second in that period for vet receivers. But their investment in young receiver talent in the first two days of the draft since Beane arrived is the lowest in the NFL. 

[LEBills]

14 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

 

Just saw this post from Warren Sharp and it confirms a lot of what I’ve been thinking lately regarding how we value WR rooms. We’re so obsessed with "spending" to get talent—whether it’s high first-rounders or massive contracts—but the correlation between draft capital spent and actual WR room success is almost non-existent.

 

In fact, looking at the data, three of the most productive WR units in the league were actually among the lowest in terms of draft capital utilized. It’s a reminder that a "good" WR room isn't bought or drafted by volume; it’s built by scouting specific traits that fit a scheme. It isn't about how many swings you take, it’s about the quality of the contact. You’re better off finding one "right" guy in the 3rd than drafting one in the 1st at the wall and hope that it sticks.

Im not sure if he is counting picks traded for players or just picks used to draft players. Based on the Packers being at the top I would assume it only means players drafted.

 

The Rams hit on Puka at least part because McVay is a very good offensive coach.

 

Eagles drafted Devonta Smith in 2021 which was just prior to this lists cutoff and traded for AJ Brown.
 

Ceedee was a first rounder in 2020, Pickens was a third round trade addition.

 

Miami drafted Waddle top 10 in 2021 and traded firsts for Tyreek

 

Bengals drafted Ted Higgins in the second in 2020 and Jamar Chase in the top 5 in 2021 so again missing the cut.

 

Seems most of the teams at the bottom of the chart where the Bills are already had top talent on their roster prior to 2022 and some kept adding very good players still.

Edited March 17 by LEBills

[Goin Breakdown]

Since March 16th I haven't had an argument with my wife. Doesn't mean we get along. This seems a little like pulling a random date  to fit a narrative. 

[Magox]

5 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

Why 2022 as a cutoff?  if you move it back a year or 2, the Eagles spent a high 1st on Smith and a 1st on AJ Brown.  Bengals spent a high 1st on Chase and a high 2nd on Higgins.  Dallas used a 1st on Lamb.  Seems silly to use an arbitrary date like 2022.  

 

Why 2022?   Not sure, but 4 years is not a bad sample size.  If you go back the past 10 years, I think the hit rate for a 1st rounder is approximately 50%.  You have your hits like Justin Jefferson and J'marr Chase but there are the misses like N'Keal Harry, Jalen Reagor, Karius Toney and plenty of others....The packers didn't draft hardly any WR's in the 1st round for a long time and got gems like Adams, Reed, Doubbs with 2nd, 3rd and a day 3 pick.   The Rams got Kupp in the 3rd round and Nacua in the 5th.   The Jets and Titans have spent significantly over the past 10 years and they have huge bust rates.

 

You can draft to try to find your "Alpha" receiver looking at potential high ceiling players  (what they could be) which more often than not will lead to a busted pick or you could view the draft picks like chess pieces, ones that are built on the floor and functionality (what they actually do).  The teams that treat WR like a "complementary piece" to their scheme—rather than a "savior" to be found in Round 1—consistently have the better rooms.   I think the data bears that out

[MJS]

When teams get good receivers, they stop devoting so much draft capital to the position. When they need receivers, they devote more to it. The Bills are kind of an outlier because their receivers suck AND they haven't invested much draft capital into them.

[Magox]

4 minutes ago, Goin Breakdown said:

Since March 16th I haven't had an argument with my wife. Doesn't mean we get along. This seems a little like pulling a random date  to fit a narrative. 

 

It's not random, it's the last 4 years.  

[MJS]

15 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

Why 2022 as a cutoff?  if you move it back a year or 2, the Eagles spent a high 1st on Smith and a 1st on AJ Brown.  Bengals spent a high 1st on Chase and a high 2nd on Higgins.  Dallas used a 1st on Lamb.  Seems silly to use an arbitrary date like 2022.  

Yeah, of course they invested less since then because they hit on receivers and didn't need to invest so much.

[Magox]

Just now, MJS said:

When teams get good receivers, they stop devoting so much draft capital to the position. When they need receivers, they devote more to it. The Bills are kind of an outlier because their receivers suck AND they haven't invested much draft capital into them.

 

I think a data based argument is more persuasive.

[Goin Breakdown]

Just now, Magox said:

 

It's not random, it's the last 4 years.  

Fair. Not random. He chose that date. He could have gone back even a little further and the chart would be different. 

[Magox]

2 minutes ago, Goin Breakdown said:

Fair. Not random. He chose that date. He could have gone back even a little further and the chart would be different. 

 

Even if you go back further, and lets say the data looks different going back lets say 8 years, does it not still not say something with younger WR's, or the productivity or lack there of this subset?    Isn't there something to infer out of this?

 

 

[Kirby Jackson]

6 minutes ago, MJS said:

Yeah, of course they invested less since then because they hit on receivers and didn't need to invest so much.

 

5 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

I think a data based argument is more persuasive.

I think that the point is if you move the date a couple of years the list looks way different. The Bengals and Eagles are near the bottom because they used significant capital the 2 prior years to add Chase, Higgins, Smith and Brown. So they didn’t have to use significant draft capital since 2022. The Cowboys did the same with Ceedee and made a trade for Pickens (and a massive contract since). The Dolphins made a big trade for Tyreek and used like the 6th pick on Waddle. Teams that are set at a position aren’t investing significantly in it. In other news, water is wet.

 

This data would be really interesting if we looked at a decade long sample size. The top WRs rarely hit the market in 2026. This doesn’t really tell us anything outside of the best WRs in the league stay with their teams for an extended period of time. If this data looked like this over 8-10 years it would be interesting. Otherwise, it’s not saying much. Looking at my crystal ball, I expect the Bengals and Cowboys to fall even further this year 

6 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

Even if you go back further, and lets say the data looks different going back lets say 8 years, does it not still not say something with younger WR's, or the productivity or lack there of this subset?    Isn't there something to infer out of this?

 

 

I think we would need to see what the rankings look like from 8-10 years ago. If it looks like this, I’d agree. I don’t expect it to because of the examples already listed.

[Don Otreply]

26 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

Why 2022 as a cutoff?  if you move it back a year or 2, the Eagles spent a high 1st on Smith and a 1st on AJ Brown.  Bengals spent a high 1st on Chase and a high 2nd on Higgins.  Dallas used a 1st on Lamb.  Seems silly to use an arbitrary date like 2022.  

The arbitrary cutoff date kinda invalidates the supposed  usefulness of this lump of data…, 

[mjt328]

9 minutes ago, MJS said:

When teams get good receivers, they stop devoting so much draft capital to the position. When they need receivers, they devote more to it. The Bills are kind of an outlier because their receivers suck AND they haven't invested much draft capital into them.

 

Yeah, I'm not sure what this chart is trying to say... or how it measures an investment.

 

The Bengals are pretty much considered the class of the NFL at the Wide Receiver position.  They used a Top 5 pick on Jamar Chase and another 1st Round Pick on Tee Higgins.  That's heavy investment.  But since both picks turned out great, they have no reason to put more into that position.  And they won't need to for a very long time.

 

It's like saying the Bills haven't invested much in the Quarterback position.  I mean, they have spent only two draft picks at QB in the past decade.  

 

[Magox]

Just now, Kirby Jackson said:

 

I think that the point is if you move the date a couple of years the list looks way different. The Bengals and Eagles are near the bottom because they used significant capital the 2 prior years to add Chase, Higgins, Smith and Brown. So they didn’t have to use significant draft capital since 2022. The Cowboys did the same with Ceedee and made a trade for Pickens (and a massive contract since). The Dolphins made a big trade for Tyreek and used like the 6th pick on Waddle. Teams that are set at a position aren’t investing significantly in it. In other news, water is wet.

 

This data would be really interesting if we looked at a decade long sample size. The top WRs rarely hit the market in 2026. This doesn’t really tell us anything outside of the best WRs in the league stay with their teams for an extended period of time. If this data looked like this over 8-10 years it would be interesting. Otherwise, it’s not saying much. Looking at my crystal ball, I expect the Bengals and Cowboys to fall even further this year 

 

At the very least it shows that recent draft choices aren't having large impacts on their teams success.   

[BuffaloRebound]

5 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

Even if you go back further, and lets say the data looks different going back lets say 8 years, does it not still not say something with younger WR's, or the productivity or lack there of this subset?    Isn't there something to infer out of this?

 

 

It doesn’t tell you much when if you use 2020 instead of 2022, it completely flips the chart for teams like the dolphins, cowboys, Eagles and Bengals.  

[Kirby Jackson]

1 minute ago, Magox said:

 

At the very least it shows that recent draft choices aren't having large impacts on their teams success.   

Does it? Ladd, Tet, BTJ, Odunze and Nabers have all had solid to stellar seasons. Then you add guys like Burden, Golden and Hunter to the mix and it is potentially the opposite. The teams that have invested the most have created dynamic WR rooms.

[Lost]

31 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

We are even lower since 2017. 

 

In terms of value of day 1 and 2 draft capital spent in the draft itself since 2018 we are dead last. One 2nd round pick (#33 in 2024).

 

We have traded a first, a third and now a second in that period for vet receivers. But their investment in young receiver talent in the first two days of the draft since Beane arrived is the lowest in the NFL. 

Do you think that will ever change with Beane?   Seems he's gotten quite accustomed to asserting that our WR group is fine then always does a few panic signings after the backlash/lack of production