Maybe Current Roster Isn't Missing As Much As People Think

[Thurman#1]

11 hours ago, jwhit34 said:

Some of this is injury recovery dependent, but so far this is what the roster looks like (for sure starters in bold italics):

Offense:

QB: J. Allen, K. Allen

RB: Cook, Johnson Davis

WR: Moore, Shakir, Coleman, Palmer (start if 11 personnel instead of one of the TEs)

TE: Kincaid, Knox, Hawes

OL: Dawkins, Brown, McGovern, Torrence, VP Granger, Anderson, Grable, Lundt, VanDemark

Total: 21,

Need 2 WR, 1 FB

Maybe: Hardman

PUP: Shavers

 

Defense:

DL & Edge/OLB: Oliver, Sanders, Walker, Rousseau, Chubb, Hoecht (maybe start over Sanders), Jackson, Carter

LB: Bernard, Williams, Andreessen

CB: Benford, Hairston, Alford

S: Bishop, Gardner-Johnson, Stone, Hancock

Total: 19

Need: 2 CB, NT, 1-2 LB

Maybes: Mathis, Dorian Strong, Solomon

 

Special Teams:

Bass, Mitch W., Ferguson, Sam Franklin

Total: 4

 

Summary:

Definite: 44

Needs: 7-8

Maybes: 5

PUP: 1

 

Which leaves 1-2 openings on 53 to BPA or where they think they need more players. Maybe 1 more S or CB.

 

They have 7 draft picks

 

Is only starting position in question LG? Don't be surprised if it's Grable, if they keep VanDemark he's the swing T and that frees up Grable to compete for LG and is T in an emergency.

 

If they keep 5 or 6 draft picks, keep 1-3 of the maybes they need an additional 1-2 plus camp players to round out training camp roster of 90 and have a practice squad pool. 

 

 

 

 

I think you're pretty close here.

 

One thing you've left out, IMO, is competition. They usually go into OTAs and minicamp and such with guys at many positions who will be legit possible competition, particularly for the depth spots. That's the stuff they'll be concerned with, bringing in low to medium-priced FAs to compete.

 

 

2 hours ago, ddaryl said:

 

No we were not a DJ and Bradley away last year,  we were a HC / DC away last year

 

Now we wait and see what a new Scheme on D does for us. 

 

Many here in this forum will debate everything without seeing anything in action. Ad nauseum 

 

 

No, we were not a HC / DC away last year.

 

We were one Josh Allen dumb fumble near the end of the half of the Broncos game away.

 

We will indeed wait and see how this all works out.

 

 

Edited March 14 by Thurman#1

[T.E.]

2 hours ago, Virgil said:

It's funny how a few months and a regime change can make people forget things so easily.  

 

The media and fans combined were blasting Beane for how poor the roster was last season.  We've made a few mid-level additions, lost quite a few more, and added DJ. 

 

I don't think anyone believed we were just a DJ and Bradley away last year.

 

Ehhh, I think you could make the argument that if Moore had been our #1 WR instead of Cooks, they find a way to get to the Super Bowl.

[Magox]

2 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

My biggest disagreement is at WR. I don’t love this draft for them but based on their predraft meetings to date (Jordan Tyson, Chris Bell, Omar Cooper, KC Concepcion, Denzel Boston, Skyler Bell, Antonio Williams, Germie Bernard) they’re drafting one early. Those are just the ones that I’ve seen reported. I would say it’s close to 100% chance they upgrade there. 80% that any early pick goes to WR and the other almost 20% would be on a vet like Cooks or even Mooney. 
 

https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/nfl-draft-2026-buffalo-bills-020513299.html

 

They want a FB. Maybe they use a late pick on the guy from Michigan? If not, they’ll sign an experienced vet. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Hawes in the backfield on the tush push with an extra OL in his spot on the line. 
 

MLB I think that they add at least 2 guys one as a starter. I’m thinking a vet like Logan Wilson and a draft pick like Trotter.

 

I also don’t think that they start a traditional NT. They will add a body there but I expect that Walker-Oliver-Sanders will be the 3 DL. Mathis will play some NT and they might draft a guy. There’s a post somewhere about how few snaps last year were played with someone lined up over the center. 

Kicker I hope that they upgrade. They are bullish on Bass. I’d rather someone else but would guess that he is the guy to start the year at least.

 

Guard seems to be a battle between Anderson and Grable. I’m good with that. 

 

Wide Receiver

Let me tell you my thinking on this: I believe it is less than 50/50 that we see a change at that WR spot for a few reasons. First off, the guy was injured throughout most of the year. Even in the games he did play, he was dealing with nagging injuries and never really got on track. He showed some glimpses early on, but once he got hurt before the halfway point, he was never able to truly play.

 

He’s not a bad route runner at all, and the team made a pretty sizable investment in him. Remember, this is Brandon Beane’s pick and Joe Brady was the OC at the time he was drafted. If they let him go, it’s an $11M dead cap hit. I think the front office is more invested in him than people want to believe.

Also, look at the path for someone to start over him. The Bills have no 2nd round pick this year, so if a starter comes from the draft, it most likely has to be in the 1st round. I think a 3rd, 4th, or 5th rounder would have considerably less than a 50/50 chance at beating him or Keon out. Not to say it couldn't happen, but the numbers don't lie—the odds are stacked against you becoming a starter in those middle rounds.

 

That leaves us with Free Agency. I happen to think the Bills' thinking is closer to how I view the offense than many on this board. I think they believe the acquisition of DJ Moore was the missing piece and they don't feel they need to do a whole lot more to improve. They aren't closing their eyes to the position—if a great option makes sense, they’ll pull the trigger—but I don’t believe they feel they have to improve the #2 spot. I think they’d be perfectly comfortable with the WR room and the offense as it stands.

 

Fullback

In terms of the FB, I was listening to Jacob Hester (who seems to be the new co-host with Pat Kirwan on NFL Radio) on Thursday. He was a FB in the pros and was speaking exactly on this topic.

Basically, in a nutshell, he was saying that too many NFL GMs think they can just stick a TE at Fullback. He argued the position takes more than just being a good TE or an inline blocker; a real FB needs to have that RB instinct to anticipate holes and cutbacks. I also heard the Bills have been in on a couple of FBs this free agency and just haven't landed one yet. I view it as a near certainty that they will upgrade from what is currently on the roster.

 

Offensive Guard

Regarding Offensive Guard, I think they are happy with who is on the roster. They may bring in a low-priced vet to compete (who may or may not even make the team) and probably use a middle-to-late round draft pick on one to develop.

 

Middle Linebacker

As far as MLB goes, I do think they will bring in a vet to compete who could win out a spot. I also believe they will use one of their premium draft choices on a linebacker who could end up starting. Between those two moves, I believe you will see at least one new starter.

[HamSandwhich]

5 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:

Ham, Dawkins is fine.  He played well all year, but gave up on a couple of plays.  He was also hurt for awhile, and toughened it out.  He is still one of the better left tackles in the league.

Hope so

[HamSandwhich]

3 hours ago, Puckman5 said:

It's bad.  Just jump.  

I actually feel a bit better after reading some of the posts, especially yours 

[Shaw66]

3 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

 

Offense: The most obvious hole is last year’s non-existent addition of Palmer.

 

 

I expect Palmer to fill that hole.

[ColoradoBills]

3 hours ago, Magox said:

Realistically, I think you may see three starter upgrades than what you currently see on the roster.

 

FB - high level of certainty we will upgrade 

MLB - reasonably high level of certainty there will be an upgrade 

NT - slightly higher than 50/50 chance of an upgrade 

Kicker- around 50/50

Free safety - less than 50/50 possibility 

WR #2 - considerably less than 50/50

Guard - less than 50/50

 

Thats how I see it

 

 

 

I would add a #3 boundary CB.  depth is pretty non-existent especially with Strong in limbo.

[Einstein]

3 hours ago, SCBills said:

In fairness, the Defense we finished the season with was missing Hairston, Hoecht and (essentially) Oliver.

We have to stop doing this. 

It's the same exact excuse every year!

Every team has injuries. That's baked in. You have to expect it. It's not an excuse!

[Kwai San]

3 hours ago, Virgil said:

It's funny how a few months and a regime change can make people forget things so easily.  

 

The media and fans combined were blasting Beane for how poor the roster was last season.  We've made a few mid-level additions, lost quite a few more, and added DJ. 

 

I don't think anyone believed we were just a DJ and Bradley away last year.

 

 

I dunno Virgil - if they had DJ last year think of all the angst they would have avoided at WR. 

 

To me the key is a balling D.  They need to really get after the QB with more than 4 like Sean did....it was a great premise and all but like all concepts they live and die on the players. Bills just never had the edge guys they needed.....those first few months of Von were amazing and the 1.5 games of Hecht was eye opening.  Hopefully Chubb can loosen things up a bit and Leonhard can work some magic.  I am optimistic about the "D" and was ecstatic about the JL hire for the D.

[Puckman5]

3 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I think that the defensive scheme change is tough to separate from the talent. I don’t know anyone that wanted to watch that defense play again in the playoffs. The thought of a more aggressive defense is refreshing. 

The defense wasn't exactly a thing of beauty in the regular season either.  To your point, the thought of watching that defense in the playoffs again under McDermott would be unbearable.  

[Augie]

3 hours ago, Virgil said:

It's funny how a few months and a regime change can make people forget things so easily.  

 

The media and fans combined were blasting Beane for how poor the roster was last season.  We've made a few mid-level additions, lost quite a few more, and added DJ. 

 

I don't think anyone believed we were just a DJ and Bradley away last year.

 

 

Not so fast, I think we were one bad call on the Cooks catch from likely being in the SB last year. Add in DJ and I certainly think we could have won it all. Let’s not ignore or dismiss (or easily forget) what we witnessed. We were close, very close. 

 

Having said that, it will be refreshing to see a more attacking type of defense. That was hard to watch, especially in the playoffs. We are talking about our roster and filling the starting spots. Sadly, far too many starters were no longer available in the playoffs. I know we need “elite” players, but you are only as strong as your weakest link. It was mildly amusing to know the play was going to go at Elam every time he stepped on the field, but that’s not the entertainment I was looking for. Depth matters. 

[Kirby Jackson]

42 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

Wide Receiver

Let me tell you my thinking on this: I believe it is less than 50/50 that we see a change at that WR spot for a few reasons. First off, the guy was injured throughout most of the year. Even in the games he did play, he was dealing with nagging injuries and never really got on track. He showed some glimpses early on, but once he got hurt before the halfway point, he was never able to truly play.

 

He’s not a bad route runner at all, and the team made a pretty sizable investment in him. Remember, this is Brandon Beane’s pick and Joe Brady was the OC at the time he was drafted. If they let him go, it’s an $11M dead cap hit. I think the front office is more invested in him than people want to believe.

Also, look at the path for someone to start over him. The Bills have no 2nd round pick this year, so if a starter comes from the draft, it most likely has to be in the 1st round. I think a 3rd, 4th, or 5th rounder would have considerably less than a 50/50 chance at beating him or Keon out. Not to say it couldn't happen, but the numbers don't lie—the odds are stacked against you becoming a starter in those middle rounds.

 

That leaves us with Free Agency. I happen to think the Bills' thinking is closer to how I view the offense than many on this board. I think they believe the acquisition of DJ Moore was the missing piece and they don't feel they need to do a whole lot more to improve. They aren't closing their eyes to the position—if a great option makes sense, they’ll pull the trigger—but I don’t believe they feel they have to improve the #2 spot. I think they’d be perfectly comfortable with the WR room and the offense as it stands.

 

All fair. We aren’t far off. After last year was such a failure, I think that there’s no chance that they enter camp COUNTING on Palmer or Keon to start opposite Moore. If they develop, it’s found money.

 

Palmer was behind Keenan Allen, Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston with the Chargers. At best, he was splitting time with Johnston. It’s not like he was an established number 2 switching teams. The Bills were hoping that he could do that.
 

The Bills tried to acquire any and every WR available at the deadline. I realize Palmer was hurt but they acted desperate. They spent at least half of their combine conversations on the top WR draft prospects. They then turned around and had Chris Bell in town right after. We will see moving forward but their actions to date say that they aren’t done at the top of the depth chart. If they talked to like Bryce Lane, Ted Hurst and the guy from John Carroll I might think they want a body for depth. That’s not how they’re acting. It’s not a plot to throw other teams off either. The Bills have spent a lot of time with the guys they drafted. They wouldn’t be talking to all of these top 2 round WRs if they weren’t planning on taking one IMO.

 

FWIW, I’m not a huge fan of this WR class. I would still rather they trade that pick for a young vet but that looks less likely. WR is what I now expect at 26. I thought edge initially and then even S. I think that they are now inching towards those premium positions early because of the insane costs to get them.

[oldmanfan]

17 minutes ago, Einstein said:

We have to stop doing this. 

It's the same exact excuse every year!

Every team has injuries. That's baked in. You have to expect it. It's not an excuse!

I’ll agree with that when others come to a realization that backups should not be expected to play at All Pro levels.

 

As for the roster, give me a big tub of goo in the middle of the D line.  And a FB.

Edited March 14 by oldmanfan

[Big Blitz]

I’ve started to run my draft sims.  
 

Nothing exciting happening at pick 26. 
 

Trade back - Id probably do it a few times - then trade up my late round picks to end up with hopefully 4-5 picks in the top 125.   
 

Take the two 5th rounds we have trade up if we want.  
 

That’s how I’d attack this draft atm.   

[Sierra Foothills]

6 hours ago, juno999 said:

Jerry Ostroski said Dawkins is on a high protein diet this offseason and is trying to get to 325. Makes me think he was 350+ last year.

 

This is a great tidbit of info. I hope it's true that Dawk acknowledges that last year wasn't good enough and that at this point in his career, he's going to have to put in more work if he wants to stay at the same level.

 

3 hours ago, fergie's ire said:

Well, if DJ makes the catch he did against the Packers for the Bills, instead of having it ripped out of his hands, then the Bills are playing the Pats for a chance to go to the Super Bowl....so we kind of were, at least of terms of GOING to the Super Bowl.  That said, it was the easiest path to the Super Bowl in the AFC that we've seen in decades, and since they can't count on that happening again, I get your point.  I think key will be drafting some difference makers.

 

Beating Jacksonville away and then Denver away was a steep climb because both teams have elite defenses. It would have been a great accomplishment to make the AFCCG last year IMO. I put less significance on the fact of KC not standing in our way than others do.

 

2 hours ago, SCBills said:

I just don’t see how anyone can make a judgment one way or another on the Defense.

 

I agree completely.

 

It seems like there are only a few Xs and Os guys on this forum who really have a good idea of which players project to which positions but there's a lot more posters who are going to be proven wrong on their positional projections and what this defense will actually look like.

• There are posters here who think we're running a conventional 3-4.
• There are posters who believe that we need a big, space-eating nose tackle.
• There are posters who think that the OLBs will have significant pass coverage duties.
• There are posters who think that we'll need 240 + pound ILBs.

Virtually none of these things are true in an absolute sense.

 

[ColoradoBills]

What is the status of players with injuries last season?  Are the timelines below accurate? 

Am I missing anyone?  Just wanted to get a handle on these guys going forward.

 

Dorian Strong - Future uncertain.

Tyrell Shaver - Not expected to be ready for start of season.

Landon Jackson - Will he be ready for training camp?

Michael Hoecht - Projected goal is to return during training camp.

Dewayne Carter - Expected to be back before training camp.

Tyler Bass - Expected to be back before training camp.

 

It would not shock me if all these guys start out on PUP in early April to be safe.

 

Oliver, Lundt and Owens should all be ready to go.

[Thurman#1]

4 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I think that the defensive scheme change is tough to separate from the talent. I don’t know anyone that wanted to watch that defense play again in the playoffs. 

 

3 hours ago, Whites Bay said:

That's a very good way of summarizing it.

 

Not at all. I'd have liked to have seen that defense play again in the playoffs. Against the Pats would have been nice, then maybe one game more. It's hard for me to imagine any Bills fan who wouldn't.

 

Again, they were OK in both playoff games this year, despite the loss of Hoecht, Ed Oliver, arguably their best player, Maxwell Hairston, the top, what, three safeties opposite Bishop, and Bosa being a shell of himself because instead of using him sparingly through the season to keep him fresh, injuries forced them to overuse him and bring him into the playoffs as a near basket case. That's not to mention Bernard, who would probably have played some in passing situations.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

So here's my thoughts, mainly on the defensive side.

 

I think it will be interesting to see how the defense looks and plays overall.  I'm sure there will still be some more moves made, but not likely any huge deals.  As was pointed out in other threads, will need to see what players like Sanders, Carter, Jackson, and Solomon can actually do.  Many posters claim they are all terrible, but the truth is in particular for Carter and Jackson, no one has seen them play anywhere near enough to know.  There's other names in a similar situation that have hardly played, so who knows.  It's certainly easy to argue they are no good and look smart when/if they fail as more than 50% of all the players fail so odds are in favor.

 

I do wonder too has some of the defensive issues been that the defense has been too complicated for many of the players to do well.  There certainly have been rumblings about that.  Also too that he wanted to specific of a certain type of player.  Maybe now these guys can just line up and play and not be thinking as much and will do better.

 

There's been much made how the defense has always struggled and McD was a strong defensive guy so shouldn't be happening.  He came here based on building a strong defense in Carolina, but have to wonder was part of their success really all due to Ron Rivera and McD just got more credit for it than he should have.  Maybe McD is a just great secondary coach, and a very good HC from the standpoint of team building but that's really it??

 

As for offense, not too much has changes, only lost one lineman, Moore should be a step up, and likely see one more WR coming in and lost our FB.  Think the reins may be taken off of Allen some so think overall could be improved.

[folz]

18 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

All fair. We aren’t far off. After last year was such a failure, I think that there’s no chance that they enter camp COUNTING on Palmer or Keon to start opposite Moore. If they develop, it’s found money.

 

Palmer was behind Keenan Allen, Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston with the Chargers. At best, he was splitting time with Johnston. It’s not like he was an established number 2 switching teams. The Bills were hoping that he could do that.
 

The Bills tried to acquire any and every WR available at the deadline. I realize Palmer was hurt but they acted desperate. They spent at least half of their combine conversations on the top WR draft prospects. They then turned around and had Chris Bell in town right after. We will see moving forward but their actions to date say that they aren’t done at the top of the depth chart. If they talked to like Bryce Lane, Ted Hurst and the guy from John Carroll I might think they want a body for depth. That’s not how they’re acting. It’s not a plot to throw other teams off either. The Bills have spent a lot of time with the guys they drafted. They wouldn’t be talking to all of these top 2 round WRs if they weren’t planning on taking one IMO.

 

FWIW, I’m not a huge fan of this WR class. I would still rather they trade that pick for a young vet but that looks less likely. WR is what I now expect at 26. I thought edge initially and then even S. I think that they are now inching towards those premium positions early because of the insane costs to get them.

 

Just to be clear about Palmer:

 

In 2021, 2022, and 2023 he was the #3 WR behind Keenen Allen and Mike Williams (with Q. Johnson coming to the team in '23 and eating into a bit of Palmer's targets, but not overtaking him for #3).

 

In 2024 Mike Williams was released, Keenen Allen was traded, and they drafted McConkey. So, in 2024, McConkey was the defecto number one by targets/stats (despite playing mostly from the slot his rookie year). And then Palmer and Johnson were kind of interchangeable as your outside guys (#2/#3 by stats, but traditionally your #1 and #2 WR spots). So, technically, you could say Palmer was still the #3 because Johnson had more targets, more yards, and more TDs. But...since Ladd played mostly from the slot, Palmer did start as the Chargers' #2 outside receiver all year.

 

He averaged a 73.33% snap count from 2022-2024 (averaging 645 yards and 2 TDs/season). But, overall, yes, I think it is still fair to say that he has been more of a WR3 than an established WR #2 (despite technically playing what is usually the #2 WR position for LAC in 2024).

 

 

[fergie's ire]

8 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

 

I do wonder too has some of the defensive issues been that the defense has been too complicated for many of the players to do well.  There certainly have been rumblings about that.  Also too that he wanted to specific of a certain type of player.  Maybe now these guys can just line up and play and not be thinking as much and will do better.

 

 

I think this is an issue, and I also had an interesting thought when listening to Sal talk about CJ Gardner.  He was talking about how teams seem to tire of him, but that's not an issue for the Bills since they signed him to a one year deal.  I wonder if such a signing was not possible under McDermott because the defense was so complicated, particularly at safety.  We have seen Hancock and Bishop struggle mightily as rookies, and even though a veteran could probably pick it up faster, I imagine it is tough for someone to really know what they are doing the first year.  One year "prove it" deals are highly useful for teams in the Bills situation and I'm not sure it was really an option for the back end of the Bills defense.