Do not trade for anyone else, or pay any top FA's. Draft well for once.

[Buffalo03]

36 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

This is wrong. Between 2001 and 2014, they had a half dozen great drafts: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nwe/draft.htm. So many good players across all rounds. 

Still got there because of Brady. And anyone would tell you, they didn't draft well in Belichick's time there

[PoundingDog]

I'm always wondered about NFL team owner's involvement. Just like any other business, I believe they should be 100% involved, sink or swim.

 

If you were an owner, how would you evaluate a GM and scouting? Let's set the culture and professionalism aside, assuming you can judge that, as most successful business people can.

 

I'd keep track record of every one of my team's scout on players he/she scouted, ranked. There is one draft board for my team but I would record everyone's own board. On draft day the GM makes the decision, but I also want to record other's choice in the personnel department. You do this for 10+ years, combined with pro-scouting ranking of current NFL players, you should have a pretty good idea if there are someone in my personnel department making right calls more than others. If the result is really scattered and no one stands out, it's time to find new blood into my personnel department.

[Billsflyer12]

1 hour ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

Fans wanting to trade two 1sts or anything at this point for Maxx Crosby , let me remind you of something. He was picked in the 4th round.  4th.   NE drafted last or near to last for nearly 15 years and still made superbowls. We have the QB, start hitting on our own draft picks like they did for once.  

 

Trade down, its a deep draft that isn't top heavy. Get back our 2nd, pick up a 3rd or 4th and for once Hit on these guys.  All Pros can be found outside of round 1, you just got to be able to scout well and pick them.

Because Beane has mostly sucked at drafting defense.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

1 hour ago, Buffalo03 said:

They made Super Bowls because of Brady. Their drafting was terrible during the Belichick era

They traded for Moss. Welker was a trade.  Edelman was a free agent. Most of their RBs were free agents.  Their first SuperBowl was won by a defense built moslty via free agency. Gilmore won defensive MVP as a free agent. Venitieri was UDFA that played in NFLEurope. 

 

Gronk was drafted and so was Hernandez.  I guess you would call that a hit and a miss. 

 

 

 

[ganesh]

7 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

In theory I think @SoonerBillsFan is right.  Draft picks are far cheaper (versus the cap) than FAs.  Once a team has locked in its franchise QB on an expensive contract, it's hard to be a big player in free agency. 

 

So the ideal strategy is to find difference-makers in the draft and supplement the draft with good value acquisitions (think moneyball) in free agency.

 

The problem with that approach is that Beane hasn't found many playmakers in the draft since hitting on Josh with his first ever pick.  Roughly 3-5 Hall of Famers are drafted each year and 10-15 All Pros, often outside the first round.  I'm trusting Beane to get us none of them.  

Taron Johnson, Milano, Oliver and Christian Benford all have been AllPros.  Injuries at inopportune time has crushed this defense 

[streetkings01]

7 hours ago, Buffalo03 said:

They made Super Bowls because of Brady. Their drafting was terrible during the Belichick era

They also consistently whiffed on receivers in the draft!

[Dick_Cheney]

Okay, I've relayed this information to Beane and the rest of the front office!

[Sierra Foothills]

7 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

Fans wanting to trade two 1sts or anything at this point for Maxx Crosby , let me remind you of something. He was picked in the 4th round.  4th.   NE drafted last or near to last for nearly 15 years and still made superbowls. We have the QB, start hitting on our own draft picks like they did for once.  

 

Trade down, its a deep draft that isn't top heavy. Get back our 2nd, pick up a 3rd or 4th and for once Hit on these guys.  All Pros can be found outside of round 1, you just got to be able to scout well and pick them.

 

I've been saying this in the weeks leading up to free agency. The best team building philosophy is one that starts with ensuring a good volume of draft picks each year.

 

This includes consideration of compensatory picks as well. With compensatory picks every year, your draft pick volume increases and your dependency on overpriced free agents lessens.

 

The teams that have historically been best at the compensatory pick game have been New England, Baltimore, Philadelphia, and San Francisco... 4 marquee franchises.

 

This year San Francisco will have 3 4th round compensatory picks, Philadelphia is gonna have a 3rd, a 4th, a 5th, and a 6th (for a grand total of 9 draft picks), and Baltimore is gonna have 2 5ths and a 7th (a grand total of 11 picks).

 

With a strong personnel department this almost guarantees a good draft and 1-2 starters per year.

 

7 hours ago, Buffalo03 said:

They made Super Bowls because of Brady. Their drafting was terrible during the Belichick era

 

It's not that simply. During the Belichick Dynasty their defenses were almost always Top 10 in scoring and they drafted greats such as Richard Seymour, Ty Law, Vince Wilfork, Willie McGinest, Tedy Bruschi, Mike Vrabel, Ted Johnson, Devin McCourty, and Dont'a Hightower.

 

6 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

This is wrong. Between 2001 and 2014, they had a half dozen great drafts: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nwe/draft.htm. So many good players across all rounds. 

 

Correct.

 

 

[GASabresIUFan]

I agree with the general premise that the Bills should trade down out of the 1st to recover a top 100 pick.  I disagree with the OP title that Beane hasn’t drafted well.  
 

As to this draft what I’ve read that this draft is “light” on 1st rd picks, but very deep in 2nd rd type talent well into the 3rd rd.  This draft is said to be deep at Edge, WR and LB.  
 

I’ve also read recently that safeties drafted in the top 100 become starters 45% of the time as rookies.  
 

Seems to me if Beane can end up with 3 or more top 100 picks, we should be able to fill our needs at LB, S and WR.  

[Dr. Who]

31 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:

I agree with the general premise that the Bills should trade down out of the 1st to recover a top 100 pick.  I disagree with the OP title that Beane hasn’t drafted well.  
 

As to this draft what I’ve read that this draft is “light” on 1st rd picks, but very deep in 2nd rd type talent well into the 3rd rd.  This draft is said to be deep at Edge, WR and LB.  
 

I’ve also read recently that safeties drafted in the top 100 become starters 45% of the time as rookies.  
 

Seems to me if Beane can end up with 3 or more top 100 picks, we should be able to fill our needs at LB, S and WR.  

If Dillon Thieneman is there at 26, Beane is going to take him, imo. I don't think he'll be there, however, so the trade down is more likely than not.

[mannc]

9 hours ago, Buffalo03 said:

They made Super Bowls because of Brady. Their drafting was terrible during the Belichick era

That’s a myth.  The Pats drafted extremely well during their dynasty, except for the last couple years, despite picking at the end of every round.

[mannc]

7 hours ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

They traded for Moss. Welker was a trade.  Edelman was a free agent. Most of their RBs were free agents.  Their first SuperBowl was won by a defense built moslty via free agency. Gilmore won defensive MVP as a free agent. Venitieri was UDFA that played in NFLEurope. 

 

Gronk was drafted and so was Hernandez.  I guess you would call that a hit and a miss. 

 

 

 

The Pats drafted Edelman (he was not a FA).  They drafted Troy Brown. And Gronkowski (right after Torrell Troup). And plenty of other good but not great WRs.  The idea that they didn’t draft well is absurd.

[sunshynman]

8 hours ago, Jauronimo said:

Draft some All Pros dummy!

I’d rather they be smart all pros. 

Edited March 12 by sunshynman

[BuffaloBillsGospel2014]

9 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

Fans wanting to trade two 1sts or anything at this point for Maxx Crosby , let me remind you of something. He was picked in the 4th round.  4th.   NE drafted last or near to last for nearly 15 years and still made superbowls. We have the QB, start hitting on our own draft picks like they did for once.  

 

Trade down, its a deep draft that isn't top heavy. Get back our 2nd, pick up a 3rd or 4th and for once Hit on these guys.  All Pros can be found outside of round 1, you just got to be able to scout well and pick them.

 

I'm just being realistic here and not trying to be a danny downer, I think I just made that up? Anyways. Unfortunately we truly should go the draft route but outside of QB Josh Allen and RB James Cook we're void of top tier talent and the draft isn't Beane's strong suit at least imo so he definitely needs to go the Les Snead route and stop treating these draft picks like gold mines and start getting some top tier players in here. I don't want to hear about cap space, the future blah blah blah. The Rams did that paying a top tier QB and went out and got a stud corner, pass rusher and WR so there is legit no excuses. If Beane sits on this roster as is and counts on the draft I won't say it's 100% the same results as last season but imo around 90% , DJ Moore was a solid pick up and so was Chubb even though I'm not a huge fan of him he's definitely an upgrade but we need to do more and it doesn't have to be for Crosby. Trade a 1st and 2nd next year along with Coleman and go get AJ freakin Brown (restructure his deal that's back loaded and at least this year guarantee it so it's a low cap hit with and out in 2 seasons) and I don't give a singular care about his attitude. Use the rest of our picks to fill as many holes as possible and if we need some extra cap space we still can convert DJ Moore's contract and Dion Dawkins to save about 24M. 

[MPT]

If Beane could draft well, it would have happened sometime in the last 8 years. 

 

We need a lot more help in FA than he's accomplished so far, while other teams have been signing quality players at reasonable prices.

 

If we still have major holes by the draft, he's going to pick a player at a position of need, like he always does, instead of the best player on the board. 

[strive_for_five_guy]

We’re fine.  This team already has a great roster.  And with Brady as HC, we now have a great coach too.  Although I could be wrong.

[The Firebaugh Kid]

Trade down is the only option. We need youth on the cheap. 

[MPT]

1 hour ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

I've been saying this in the weeks leading up to free agency. The best team building philosophy is one that starts with ensuring a good volume of draft picks each year.

 

This includes consideration of compensatory picks as well. With compensatory picks every year, your draft pick volume increases and your dependency on overpriced free agents lessens.

 

The teams that have historically been best at the compensatory pick game have been New England, Baltimore, Philadelphia, and San Francisco... 4 marquee franchises.

 

This year San Francisco will have 3 4th round compensatory picks, Philadelphia is gonna have a 3rd, a 4th, a 5th, and a 6th (for a grand total of 9 draft picks), and Baltimore is gonna have 2 5ths and a 7th (a grand total of 11 picks).

 

With a strong personnel department this almost guarantees a good draft and 1-2 starters per year.

 

You need to draft good players before you can get compensatory draft picks. Very few of our free agents get signed because, in general, they are failed picks. That also means we have to sign more free agents to make up for the lack of draft talent.

 

Those other teams you listed draft enough good players that they can't keep them all under the cap and have to let some walk. Tremaine Edmunds and Gabe Davis are the only two players Beane has drafted that resulted in comp picks.

 

As an aside, the Steelers getting 2 comp picks for Justin Fields and Russell Wilson is absolute garbage and really highlights the absurdity of the comp pick formula.

[billsfan89]

Draft well to be successful? Next thing you are going to tell me is that good things are good and bad things are bad!

[Búfalo Blanco]

10 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

Fans wanting to trade two 1sts or anything at this point for Maxx Crosby , let me remind you of something. He was picked in the 4th round.  4th.   NE drafted last or near to last for nearly 15 years and still made superbowls. We have the QB, start hitting on our own draft picks like they did for once.  

 

Trade down, its a deep draft that isn't top heavy. Get back our 2nd, pick up a 3rd or 4th and for once Hit on these guys.  All Pros can be found outside of round 1, you just got to be able to scout well and pick them.

I agree with your overall point and I’d be ecstatic if they trade down to the 2nd and pick up draft capital. Do it a couple of times. Pick up a few more bargain FAs and build the young core.

 

To be fair to Beane though, he has navigated multiple drafts well, traded around and has had several late round hits.. He’s not perfect in the draft, mind you (who is really?).. but overall I’d agree that the past issues have been more about coaching and (fair to McD) bad luck injuries.
 

The one thing I wonder about that eventually catches up with Beane is the salary cap issues..